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MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

smg58 Nov 02 2018 07:57 PM

[url]https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html A few of the interesting ones: 1. Bryce Harper – Dodgers. Fourteen years, $420MM. Personally I don't think he or Machado will agree to an average of less than $35M unless it is front-loaded and comes with a player option. Given some of the quotes -- "Harper was easily the best hitter in baseball in 2015, though his only other top 10 finish in wRC+ was in 2017"; "A typical three-year look back (inconvenient given the timing of Harper’s monster year) places him just 34th among position players in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement"; "Machado may indeed be one of the 10 best position players in baseball heading into 2019, a case which probably cannot be made for Harper" -- you wonder how it is possible to rank him ahead of Machado. You also wonder who thinks he's worth something genuinely stratospheric. And the Mets really don't need another lefty corner outfielder. 2. Manny Machado – Phillies. Thirteen years, $390MM. I fully expect the Phillies to shoot the moon for somebody, so I'm not surprised by the prediction. But I can see the Phillies going ten years at the same dollar value. And no, I wouldn't match that. 4. Dallas Keuchel – Nationals. Four years, $82MM. Four and sixty would be as high as I'd go. 6. Yasmani Grandal – Nationals. Four years, $64MM. My opening offer would be 4 and 60, but I'd go up (in dollars, not years) if I was in the running. My concern is that everybody is looking for catching help, and this will prove to be too small. 8. A.J. Pollock – Giants. Four years, $60MM. Hmm. His upside would make him the second best centerfielder in baseball, but his history says compromising injuries are more likely. I couldn't go four with him. 11. Andrew McCutchen – Cubs. Three years, $45MM. Kind of surprised by the prediction, given the Cubs need pitching more than offense. Personally, I think he's worth less than a healthy Jay Bruce. 13. Josh Donaldson – Cardinals. One year, $20MM. I'd do 25 for one year (assuming Machado goes for more than I'd willingly pay). Donaldson is the only other difference-making right-handed bat besides Machado on the market. If he's willing to bet a year on his health, then so am I. 15. Wilson Ramos – Astros. Three years, $36MM. I'd take him at that price, but again, I'm concerned about a sellers market at catcher. 17. Jeurys Familia – Twins. Three years, $33MM. We're in trouble if the Twins outbid us for anybody. 19. David Robertson – Mets. Three years, $33MM. I don't see us taking Robertson at the same price we could get Familia. 29. Matt Harvey – Reds. Two years, $22MM. Anything more than 1 and 5 for Harvey is nuts. 31. Daniel Murphy – Angels. Two years, $20MM. Probably still worth that to somebody. 34. Joakim Soria – Mets. Two years, $18MM. Not against it, but if I'm spending on two relievers then one of them is a lefty.

Mex17 Nov 02 2018 08:43 PM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

I don't think that BVW is going to not get any offensive improvement at all. I also don't think that Harper and Machado are getting over 10 years (they might not even get 10 years).

smg58 Nov 03 2018 05:55 AM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

Yeah, I think the Stanton contract will discourage the kind of length that they're suggesting. And there will certainly be player options involved. But Harper and Machado will both get their money.

Mex17 Nov 03 2018 05:58 AM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

smg58 wrote: if I'm spending on two relievers then one of them is a lefty. Agreed. Are you alright with Andrew Miller coming off an off season?

smg58 Nov 03 2018 07:01 AM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

The question with Miller and Britton is are they recovering from their injuries, or are they dealing with a lingering issue? I'd have to do more homework (and presumably Brodie is doing just that), but if I decide it's reasonable to bet on their health then sure.

Vic Sage Nov 05 2018 02:38 PM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

i like the idea of Ottavino and Justin Miller for the pen, and Grandal behind the plate. cf- Nimmo / Lagares 2b-McNeil / TJRivera Rf- Conforto Lf- [Cespedes-dl] / D.Smith 1b - Bruce / Alonzo (or Frazier, Rivera) C - Grandal / Plawecki 3b - Frazier (or McNeil, Rivera) P - x ss - Rosario (backup?) DeGrom Wheeler Syndegaard Matz Vargas Ottavino J.Miller* Lugo Gsellman Swarzak D.Smith Zamora*

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Nov 05 2018 04:09 PM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

Considering they're Chicagoan, have a theoretical crapton of unspent ducats to throw at the sexy boys in the tight pants, and have a dirt-cheap surplus of maturing talent from their sell-off with which to surround any FA acquisitions in their lineup/rotation for at least the next half-decade... I think it's funny that MLBTR (and pretty much every would-be market swami) is completely ignoring the Sawx of the Midway.

Mex17 Nov 05 2018 04:12 PM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Considering they're Chicagoan, have a theoretical crapton of unspent ducats to throw at the sexy boys in the tight pants, and have a dirt-cheap surplus of maturing talent from their sell-off with which to surround any FA acquisitions in their lineup/rotation for at least the next half-decade... I think it's funny that MLBTR (and pretty much every would-be market swami) is completely ignoring the Sawx of the Midway. They lost 100 games. Still at least a year away for them I think.

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Nov 05 2018 04:42 PM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

Abreu's gone in a year, and next year's market will have nary a Machado or Harper (or Grandal, Ramos, or Pollock, even). They may not be in an immediate contending position next year, but I'd be shocked if they didn't make a splash in the market at least the size of the Phils' dip last offseason (Arrieta, Santana, Hunter, Neshek).

Ashie62 Nov 06 2018 04:40 PM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

Let Alonso become a superstar and work from there

smg58 Nov 06 2018 05:12 PM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Considering they're Chicagoan, have a theoretical crapton of unspent ducats to throw at the sexy boys in the tight pants, and have a dirt-cheap surplus of maturing talent from their sell-off with which to surround any FA acquisitions in their lineup/rotation for at least the next half-decade... I think it's funny that MLBTR (and pretty much every would-be market swami) is completely ignoring the Sawx of the Midway. And on queue... [url]https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/offseason-outlook-chicago-white-sox-9.html

Ashie62 Nov 06 2018 08:12 PM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

smg58 wrote: LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr wrote: Considering they're Chicagoan, have a theoretical crapton of unspent ducats to throw at the sexy boys in the tight pants, and have a dirt-cheap surplus of maturing talent from their sell-off with which to surround any FA acquisitions in their lineup/rotation for at least the next half-decade... I think it's funny that MLBTR (and pretty much every would-be market swami) is completely ignoring the Sawx of the Midway. And on queue... [url]https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/offseason-outlook-chicago-white-sox-9.html Saw on interweb pale sox will be competive on Machado and Harper I think I heard a rumor the MFY's are looking to trade Stanton

Centerfield Nov 07 2018 07:54 AM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

I read this morning in Matt Ehalt's article that the Mets have about $130 committed to next year. If the projections are accurate, consider this scenario: 3B: Josh Donaldson. 1 year, $20 million C: Ramos. 3 years, $36 million RHRP: Familia. 3 years, $33 Million LHRP: Britton. 3 years, $33 Million. Assuming none of this money is backloaded, it gives us a bump of $54 million for the 2019 payroll. Wright will certainly not play in 2019, meaning 75% of his $15 million salary is covered. That means a net payroll bump of $43 million (I'm leaving any Cespedes insurance coverage out, since I don't know how long he'll be out, and I don't know the specifics of coverage.) That gives us a $173 million payroll. ($23 million more than last year) $173 million would have put us 8th in the league last year, and presumably somewhere in that area, maybe a notch or two lower, for 2019. If the Mets are able to unload Frazier (who still has some value), then that drops them to $164 million. That would have been good for 10th in the league. There is no reason something like this is not doable. Of course, I'd love for the Mets to actually act like a big market team, increase to a top 5 payroll, and get the actual superstars at the top of the market, but there is no excuse for the Mets, at a minimum, to do something like this.

Ceetar Nov 07 2018 08:10 AM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

'something like that' is roughly what they did last year so I don't see why it'd be unrealistic. Of course, Donaldson isn't signing for 1/20. That seems ridiculous. I guess the idea is that he had an injury plagued season and wants a healthy one to really cash in, but it was a calf injury, and he came back from it and played. (Although drama around that injury trade!) Looks like he missed a few games in 2017 too, but still put up 5.1 fWAR. he mashed in small sample with Cleveland, though didn't do much in the tiny sample 3-game loss to the Astros. Donaldson is really really good. Like, much better than Machado. Unless you think he's completely shot, if you could get him for like 3/60? or much less if 1/20 is really what teams are thinking, do it. Hell, give him 4/60 with an opt out after 2.

Edgy MD Nov 07 2018 09:11 AM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

Donaldson is a good option, unless they are shy about broken thirdbasemen. I like to think bringing him in would be something analogous to bringing in Ventura, who had also returned successfully from a long absence due to a leg injury, and while folks were encouraged that he came back, it was the Mets who gambled and gave him a multi-year deal.

Centerfield Nov 07 2018 09:20 AM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

I guess it comes down to whether you think Donaldson is recovered and/or shot. If only there were some sort of data to measure his peripherals so that we could make an educated determination rather than just guess blindly.

John Cougar Lunchbucket Nov 07 2018 09:30 AM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

Seems to me Donaldson is in a good place to be the consolation prize in the Machado sweeps, unless someone makes Manny a SS

Vic Sage Nov 07 2018 09:37 AM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

Donaldson's WAR since he peaked at 8.5 (2015, age 29): 8.5 7.6 4.8 1.2 he'll be 33 next month, coming off an injury. No thanks.

Ceetar Nov 07 2018 09:53 AM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

Vic Sage wrote: Donaldson's war since he peaked at 8.5 (2015, age 29): 8.5 7.6 4.8 1.2 he'll be 33 next month. No thanks. The 4.8 would be closer to 7 prorated. and the 1.2 would be closer to 4, not even accounting for the idea that maybe he was hampered early by the injury. It wasn't a lot of time. Obviously do your due diligence and look at what you can. He only had 60 PA for the Indians, but he mashed the damn ball. He hit it hard, he hit it far, his walk rate was above his average and his strikeout rate below his average. all that on basically no minor league rehab(no advanced A partials in late august, one AAA game on 9/3, he hit a grand slam) and not having played since May. I actually just looked and it looks like he also had a brief shoulder inflammation issue in late April that sidelined him for a few weeks. Then he played most of May at an league average-ish pace and went down with the calf. Do with that what you will. Players get hurt. is he MORE likely to now? Breaking down? Maybe. Or maybe he finished healthy and will be in a groove again now. Even with all that, he's 16th in fWAR over the last three years, and 6th in wRC+. 6th! Machado is 36th. I'm really coming around on Josh. Get him.

Frayed Knot Nov 07 2018 10:28 AM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

And here, as if on cue, is an article on Donaldson examining his plusses and minuses.

smg58 Nov 07 2018 12:11 PM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

Fangraphs has Josh Donaldson being worth at least $40M in five of his last six seasons (2018 being the obvious exception). He's basically one lost year removed from that. But he'll be 33, not 26 like Machado and Harper. Of course the injuries are a concern. But if he's willing to do a one-year deal, or even a front-loaded deal with a player option after 2019, I'd go as high as $25M for next year. The potential reward easily outweighs the potential risk under those conditions. And if he's inclined to bet on himself, it would suggest that he, at least, has some confidence in his health. If he insists on a longer commitment, the risk goes up though. He's definitely worth monitoring.

batmagadanleadoff Nov 07 2018 12:28 PM Re: MLBTradeRumors top 50 Free Agents

smg58 wrote: Fangraphs has Josh Donaldson being worth at least $40M in five of his last six seasons (2018 being the obvious exception). He's basically one lost year removed from that. But he'll be 33, not 26 like Machado and Harper. Of course the injuries are a concern. But if he's willing to do a one-year deal, or even a front-loaded deal with a player option after 2019, I'd go as high as $25M for next year. The potential reward easily outweighs the potential risk under those conditions. And if he's inclined to bet on himself, it would suggest that he, at least, has some confidence in his health. If he insists on a longer commitment, the risk goes up though. He's definitely worth monitoring. This is all very plausible. But the same kind of stuff was said about Mo Vaughn and Michael Cuddyer and a host of others. Even David Wright, including from some of our forum's children, who acted as if Wright was gonna not only come back, but win the MVP and lead the Mets to the World Series.