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Steamer Projections are Out

Centerfield Nov 14 2018 09:26 AM

You can find them here: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.a ... &players=0 A few highlights: *Not surprisingly Trout leads all hitters. JD Martinez comes in at #2, which I wouldn't have guessed. Bryce Harper rounds out the top 3. *Machado at 17. .883 OPS. 33 HR's. Not sure how they can do this if they don't know what his home ballpark will be. *Juan Soto is crazy high at #6. .905 OPS. Is he really that good? I hope not. *No Mets in the top 60 (first 2 pages). Conforto is the highest Met at #64. *After Conforto (.797 OPS), Cespedes, expected to miss a significant part of the season, comes in second at .788. Alonso is the third highest Met at .771. 10 HR's in 187 AB's. *Regression is predicted for McNeil and Nimmo. Both coming in the mid .700's. McNeil projects to 14 HR's, which sounds a little high. We can talk all we want about how the bullpen has to be the top priority, but a chart like this shows you how bleak the situation is offensively. Four Nationals appear on that list before Conforto. Two Braves, two Phillies, only the Marlins are behind us in our division. The Dodgers slot in 5 hitters before Conforto. The Cubs have four, the Rockies have three, and the Brewers have two. In the AL, the Red Sox have 5, and the Yankees and Astros each have four guys that slot in before our first guy. We need tons of help offensively.

Ceetar Nov 14 2018 09:30 AM Re: Steamer Projections are Out

I assume they're just projecting Machado on a neutral park.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 14 2018 09:30 AM Re: Steamer Projections are Out

Centerfield wrote: We need tons of help offensively. The fact that Jacob deGrom only was able to win 10 games reinforces that. If he wins the Cy Young Award six and a half hours from now, that fact will be highlighted for all the world to see.

Centerfield Nov 14 2018 09:34 AM Re: Steamer Projections are Out

Benjamin Grimm wrote: We need tons of help offensively. The fact that Jacob deGrom only was able to win 10 games reinforces that. If he wins the Cy Young Award six and a half hours from now, that fact will be highlighted for all the world to see. Maybe. But I feel like much of the focus has been: "Wins don't tell the full story of how good deGrom was. This stat is flawed." Rather than: "How fucking bad was the Mets offense that deGrom barely got 10 wins?"

Centerfield Nov 14 2018 09:51 AM Re: Steamer Projections are Out

Digging a little deeper: Conforto is a solid hitter, with a good history, and is expected to be healthy next year. Nimmo's body of work is now a year plus, so you hope that he can duplicate that (or something close to that) next year. After, that, Cespedes is injured, and will play, at best, the second half. Alonso has never played a day in the big leagues, and will most likely not be here to start the season. McNeil has played 2 months, and our fourth best hitter, Flores, might be non-tendered. Our starting catcher and shortstop both project under .700.

smg58 Nov 14 2018 11:47 AM Re: Steamer Projections are Out

They are basically expecting no net improvement at all from Conforto, despite his recovering from a major shoulder injury and improving measurably in the second half. They are also expecting Nimmo to drop well below his performance over the past two years, when he's 26, and minimal improvement from Rosario when he's 23. So I don't think the picture is nearly as bleak as they're portraying it, but that doesn't mean the picture isn't bleak. They need serious help in a few places.

Centerfield Nov 14 2018 12:23 PM Re: Steamer Projections are Out

The impression I got, generally, are that the projections are kinda low. They are projecting 100 point drops for guys like Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich, who are young and capable of improvement. The Nimmo projection seemed low to me. The Rosario projection not so much. As "hot" as he was in the second half, his post All-Star OPS was just .685.

smg58 Nov 14 2018 06:31 PM Re: Steamer Projections are Out

There are enough parallels between Rosario's 2018 and Reyes' 2005 to give some cause for hope. Certainly enough that I would ride him another year, and look to upgrade elsewhere. And he certainly doesn't have to become one of the league's best players to vindicate that strategy; he just has to improve. But the strategy could also backfire.

Frayed Knot Nov 14 2018 06:53 PM Re: Steamer Projections are Out

Centerfield wrote: The Rosario projection not so much. As "hot" as he was in the second half, his post All-Star OPS was just .685. Mostly held down by a lousy July (610). August & September were a much improved 730 & 733, all while playing more regularly as well -- only months of his career so far (out of eight) with >100 ABs