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In 2017, Bruce and Swarzak together were worth more than Cano. Last year they both played hurt. Bruce had an OPS over .800 when he returned, which was perfectly in line with what he normally does when healthy. That won't make anybody take on his full contract by itself, but he's worth a lot more than $3M over 2 years. It's also worth mentioning that they're both younger.
So Cano has hung around 3 WAR for three of the last 4 seasons. Let's start with that as his baseline. He's 36, so we'll go with 3, 2.5, 2, 1.5, and 1 WAR over his five seasons. That's 10 WAR, worth roughly $80M. The Mariners are eating $20M, so he's at -$20M by himself.
Bruce has 2.4 WAR combined over the last two seasons. We'll go with that as his median likely value, making him at -$7M by himself.
Swarzak has 2.0 WAR combined over his last two seasons. 1 WAR is worth $8M, so he's break-even.
So you're counting on four years of Diaz being worth $13M more than what Kellenic, Dunn, and Bautista can do before free agency. Diaz had 3.2 WAR in a year he's not likely to top, but we'll be optimistic and give him 12 WAR over the next 4 years. We'll also give him salaries of $0.5M, $7.2M, $10.8M, and $14.4M -- so we'll say $96M of value for a $33M cost, for a $63M net. Make no mistakes, HE'S the key to the deal. If he pitches to last year for four straight years with us, the deal will look all right. But that's not a guarantee.
The gamble is that Kellenic, Dunn, and Bautista will combine for value less than $50M, or a bit more than 6 WAR, above their pre-free agency salaries, assuming we get four years like 2017 from Diaz. Basically, two good years (or one exceptional year) from one of these guys makes it a push.
I do think it's fair to say that the deal makes the 2019 Mets better. But it's also perfectly fair to ask if the improvement could have been made in a less costly fashion.
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