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Prospects - Winter 18/19

Frayed Knot Dec 05 2018 08:02 PM

The annual prospect season gawking is off to a rough start this winter for several reasons. #1 -- obviously is the sudden disappearance of the law firm of Kelenic & Dunn #2 -- is that just as John Sickels was ready to publish his NYM system assessment, he suddenly posted a note that his site had been pulled by its distributor making him, at least for the near future, a homeless FA. His site has long been my favorite for his opinions, his lack of hype, and for its availability (no pay wall). So both this news and particularly the timing is, as Charles Barkley would say, turrible. He'll probably re-surface somewhere but it could be a while. #3 -- Baseball America has just published their NYM list but that is now totally behind a pay wall even to the point where you can't even see the list itself much less any individual analysis. The one good note is that a Q&A discussion around that list is available **just out today** so you can kind of piece together facts and opinions of the players at the top of the system. And there's some good stuff in that BA discussion. He [BA writer Matt Eddy] thinks the last few drafts have upped the depth of the system overall even with the recent trade. Specifically he's high on a couple of young shortstops and more bullish on Alonso than in recent years. Eddy: Coming into the year, I was skeptical of Alonso's impact potential in the major leagues. As a longtime Baseball American, it's in my DNA to be skeptical of RH hitting first basemen. (We were light on Mark McGwire, on Frank Thomas, on Paul Goldschmidt, on Rhys Hoskins, etc.) But when you weigh the value of the Statcast and TrackMan data that is telling us that Alonso is doing things than literally no other hitter has done, well, that's convincing data to me. I think a rookie projection of .250 with 25-30 HR and a healthy walk rate is in play.

Frayed Knot Dec 05 2018 08:16 PM Re: Prospects - Winter 18/19

And now, just after I get done with the previous note of doom and gloom, I find the Baseball Prospectus version of the NYM system not only up and running but with player analysis fully out and unencumbered by any paywall. So things are looking up after all. 1 - Andres Gimenez, SS 2 - Peter Alonso, 1B 3 - Ronny Mauricio, SS 4 - Shervyen Newton, IF 5 - Mark Vientos, 3B 6 - David Peterson, LHP 7 - Franklyn Kilome, RHP 8 - Thomas Szapucki, LHP 9 - Anthony Kay, LHP 10 - Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP And, just as a tease because no one seems to be able to resist a little Peter Alonso porn on a cold December night: 2. Peter Alonso, 1B -- DOB: 12/7/94 -- Height/Weight: 6’3”/ 245 lbs. -- Bats/Throws: R/R Drafted/Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2016 draft, University of Florida; signed for $909,200. Previous Ranking(s): #7 (Org) 2018 Stats: .314/.440/.573, 15 HR, 0 SB in 65 games at AA Binghamton; .260/.355/.585, 21 HR, 0 SB in 67 games at AAA Las Vegas The Report: Listen, we hate this profile as a rule. This is a R/R college first baseman who is a cover model for the BIG BOY SZN catalog and he doesn’t play great or even particularly good defense. You will go absolutely broke betting on players of this type to make it. But some do, and we think Peter Alonso is going to be one of the exceptions. We said last year that 2018 would be a big year for Alonso. He killed Double-A for the first half of the season, did the same in Triple-A from mid-July on after a slow first month, and impressed in the Arizona Fall League. We said he projected for plus game power with a chance for more. Thirty-six homers in the high-minors later, the chance got there, and he now projects for 80 game power. We said Dom Smith might establish himself in the majors first and cloud up Alonso’s profile and, well, pretty much the exact opposite of that happened. He’s got power, he’s got patience, he’s got bat speed, he can turn on velocity, he’s got better feel for contact than you usually see in these types of players. It’s not all roses, obviously; he’d be ahead of Gimenez if it was. Outside of the Vladitos of the world, you don’t know when a guy is going to be able to hit major league sliders until you know, and we don’t know yet. The Mets left him in the minors all year, whether because of service time or 40-man considerations or a veteran fetish, robbing us of the chance to know. He’s still, generously, a work-in-progress with the glove at first base, although he ranges and throws well enough. We believe that he’s “playable bad” there instead of “needs to be traded to the American League,” but there are scouts who project the latter. The Role: OFP 60—First-division first baseman, routinely a league leader in homers Likely 55—Above-average first baseman/DH, occasionally a league leader in homers The Risks: Low-to-medium, depending on how you look at it. There’s low risk in the tools, he’s about as fully-formed as a prospect can be, in part because he shouldn’t be prospect-eligible. There’s still substantial risk in the profile until we see how good he is at getting on base against MLB pitching. There isn’t a ton separating Rhys Hoskins and C.J. Cron in profile or skills, but that slight gap is the difference between a star and a waiver claim. Mets fans might also cringe at the exit velocity hype after The Eric Campbell Experience. —Jarrett Seidler

MFS62 Dec 05 2018 08:22 PM Re: Prospects - Winter 18/19

My Canadian Strat friends are chattering that the BA list was: 1. Andres Gimenez, SS 2. Peter Alonso, 1B 3. Ronny Mauricio, SS 4. Jarred Kelenic, OF 5. Justin Dunn, RHP 6. Mark Vientos, 3B 7. Anthony Kay, LHP 8. David Peterson, LHP 9. Shervyen Newton, SS 10. Simeon Woods-Richardson, RHP But it has been reworked to add Kilome at 9 and Szapucki at 10, both of whom were on the BP list and are recovering from arm surgery. So, for now: 1. Andres Gimenez, SS 2. Peter Alonso, 1B 3. Ronny Mauricio, SS 4. Mark Vientos, 3B 5. Anthony Kay, LHP 6. David Peterson, LHP 7. Shervyen Newton, SS 8. Simeon Woods-Richardson, RHP 9. Franklyn Kilome, RHP 10. Thomas Szapucki, LHP Later

Edgy MD Dec 05 2018 08:32 PM Re: Prospects - Winter 18/19

Who is the Mets most accomplished righthanded-hitting firstbaseman? Kingman? Clendennon? Huskey?

LeiterWagnerFasterStrongr Dec 05 2018 09:40 PM Re: Prospects - Winter 18/19

Edgy MD wrote: Who is the Mets most accomplished righthanded-hitting firstbaseman? Kingman? Clendennon? Huskey? Clendennon, probably. 3-plus WAR in three seasons as a part-timer, versus about the same for Kong in parts of six years. Plus, y'know, the little WS MVP bit of business. It's early yet, but that Shervyen kid does seem to have on-base skills that are more than sufficient for invoice payment.