Master Index of Archived Threads
Everyone Team Can Afford Harper
Centerfield Jan 04 2019 08:21 AM |
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Says David Roth at Deadspin.
Basically, every team has the money to spend. But they have just as many excuses to just pocket it and not invest the revenue. I guess this goes a long way into figuring out how a relatively small city like Boston can lead the majors in payroll. While some teams that play in larger markets come in middle of the pack.
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Centerfield Jan 04 2019 08:31 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
According to this list, Boston is the #7 TV market in the US.
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smg58 Jan 04 2019 08:46 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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nymr83 Jan 04 2019 08:49 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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what is the "fan base" though? New York is split between 2 teams and has Philly fans to the south/southwest, Boston has all of New England?
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smg58 Jan 04 2019 09:12 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Centerfield Jan 04 2019 09:22 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Not sure. But the first list suggests they capture a large audience beyond the city as they are #7 market in the US. But it's hard to imagine any surrounding area making up the difference in population. NYC has 8.6 million people. Let's be conservative and allocate 70% of that market to the MFY. That still leaves 2.58 million for the Mets. And that's not counting LI, NJ, upstate NY and parts of CT.
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Johnny Lunchbucket Jan 04 2019 09:39 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Centerfield Jan 04 2019 10:04 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Edgy MD Jan 04 2019 10:16 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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metsmarathon Jan 04 2019 12:15 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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the entire population of new england (minus connecticut) (~9M) is slightly more than the population of the 5 boroughs of new york city (~8.6M). lets do some math. for the purposes of this exercise, let's consider all of new york state to be fans of either the yankees or the mets. we'll add in 1/2 of connecticut, and 2/3 of jersey. which is unfair because jersey is too good of a state too have so many of us fall sway to the phillies. but whatever - it's an approximation, and i'm trying to be overly conservative... new york has 19M people. CT has 3.5M and NJ has 7M. of that, we allocate 1.75M and 4.7M respectively to the NY market. total available fanbase of 25.4M. applying the 70/30 split above, the mets should have about 7.6M to draw from. it's a bit shy of the 10.75 i'm allocating to boston, and far short of the 17.8M i'm giving the yankees. but it still a big enough number that the mets should be pretty big players in the payroll games. also, it goes without saying that as the mets fortunes improve, their share of the new york market can grow as well. in other words. spend spend spend.
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Centerfield Jan 04 2019 03:47 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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A Boy Named Seo Jan 04 2019 04:01 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Gwreck Jan 24 2019 04:46 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Ken Rosenthal has a column at The Athletic today about the Mets and how they should sign Harper or Machado.
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Centerfield Jan 24 2019 07:01 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Edgy MD Jan 24 2019 08:42 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Gwreck Jan 24 2019 09:06 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
=Centerfield post_id=1782 time=1548381701 user_id=65] |
Van Wagenen thus frames the potential addition of a high-priced free agent as an either/or situation: Either the Mets could sign Harper or Machado or they could shore up multiple areas deemed deficient. We could debate whether New York would have been better off throwing $30-plus million per season at one player or spending $29.5 million on the trio of Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie and Wilson Ramos. What's clear is that the Mets do not view it as possible to have done both, even as they sit more than $40 million below the competitive-balance tax, even as their previous offseason moves have put them in precisely the position where one more significant addition could have the highest possible impact. |
Gwreck Jan 24 2019 09:15 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Good thing the Mets are nowhere near that threshold, and still easily under it even if they signed one of the two to a $30M/year contract.
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batmagadanleadoff Jan 24 2019 09:40 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Gwreck Jan 24 2019 10:16 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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batmagadanleadoff Jan 25 2019 05:30 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
=Gwreck post_id=1796 time=1548393372 user_id=56] |
smg58 Jan 25 2019 05:46 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
=Centerfield post_id=583 time=1546642046 user_id=65]One wonders, if George Steinbrenner were alive, would he have a $400 million payroll? |
Fman99 Jan 25 2019 05:49 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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bmfc1 Jan 25 2019 06:03 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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batmagadanleadoff Jan 25 2019 06:17 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Hey, that's our old friend, Howie Megdal.
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Lefty Specialist Jan 25 2019 06:20 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
=smg58 post_id=1803 time=1548420395 user_id=62] |
Centerfield Jan 25 2019 07:31 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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RealityChuck Jan 25 2019 11:16 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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kcmets Jan 25 2019 11:40 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
=RealityChuck post_id=1824 time=1548440168 user_id=82]Most of the team's big contracts ended with disappointing results, so the Wilpons, quite rightly, don't want to jump in an get burned again. |
Frayed Knot Jan 25 2019 01:07 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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But there's the "if they win" part which, because it isn't assured by signing player X, is why, as Chuck says, they're wary of that level of spending - and especially so in the post-Madoff era. The biggest profit incentive from owning an MLB team isn't that the team finishes in the black each year just by opening the doors but rather via the increase in the value of the franchise over time. But in those years that turn up in the red the partners have to cover the shortfall and, after having begged and borrowed just to tide them through much of the last decade, they certainly don't have the liquid backup they once had and are therefore more gun-shy about taking such a plunge. There's a difference between: 'Great if it works, disappointed if it doesn't' vs 'Great if it works, lose further control of the team if it doesn't'
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Frayed Knot Jan 25 2019 01:07 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Jan 25 2019 07:02 PM |
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Centerfield Jan 25 2019 06:38 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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A Boy Named Seo Jan 25 2019 07:52 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Frayed Knot Jan 25 2019 07:55 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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That a team loses money overall? No, and that's not what I'm saying. That expenses can and sometimes do exceed revenues during certain periods, yes. And when this happens the owners need to go into their pockets to cover the shortfall. I'm not suggesting a go-fund-me account for them when this happens but I'm suggesting that, because they needed to heavily borrow and sell-off pieces of the team to keep things afloat during the Madoff crisis, since then they both have less backup in the piggy bank than they once had (particularly less than they thought they once had), more loans to pay back from that time, and probably bad memories from going through that period, this has made them more risk-averse these days.
I specifically said the opposite of that, that rising value over time is what owners are really in it for. But you don't see that money unless and until you sell. So if you need to cover expenses before then you either have to go into your own pocket, borrow against the current or future value, and/or sell off pieces of the team. I suspect they're more than a bit leery of taking any of those paths right now since they recently had to do all of the above and therefore are steering a more conservative path by getting out in front of fewer big deals that could conceivably come back to bite them if the winning and projected revenue increases don't come with it. Basically this in a longer-winded version of what Chuck said, that they are wary of spending more because they've seen too many bad contracts in the past and because bad investments once put them in danger of losing the team. Not that I'm claiming this is the smart way to do things going forward but it's a helluva lot more logical than the scenario where they can spend much more than they are currently doing -- what, $200 mil/yr? $300?, $500?!?, is there any limit? -- but simply choose not to because they prefer to lose and line their pockets than win and line them more. You can make more by spending more if the plan you put into place works. But I think the Wilpons have transformed themselves into the stereotypical football coach
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A Boy Named Seo Jan 25 2019 08:05 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Gwreck Jan 25 2019 10:18 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Edgy MD Jan 26 2019 08:18 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
=Gwreck post_id=1851 time=1548479910 user_id=56]Even assuming all of the above, failing to sign one of these players is particulalry bad because of the unique opportunity to secure top talent in the free agent market while the players are still young. 26 year old stars don't hit the market that often, let alone 2 in the same year. |
batmagadanleadoff Jan 26 2019 09:51 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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And yet, 100% of all major league teams has failed to sign one of these players. |
Edgy MD Jan 26 2019 11:37 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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batmagadanleadoff Jan 26 2019 12:21 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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But MLB does have a say. If it could oust Frank McCourt, then the Wilpons should have been good riddanced 10 times over a long while ago. I'm not spending 30 bucks to park my car at Citi Field and five dollars for a soda when for the same five bucks, I could get two dozen cans of Coke at my supermarket when the owners are then gonna take my money to service their Madoff debt. The team's worth two fucking BILLION dollars. Force the owners to sell. Then they can pay back their Madoff debt and New York City will have a baseball team that, imagine that, can go after the game's best players.
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Edgy MD Jan 26 2019 02:49 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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I understand.
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Frayed Knot Jan 26 2019 04:19 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Don't disagree. I'm just pushing back against those essentially saying that money is so plentiful that 'can't' isn't even a possibility, and the process which I'm describing as 'overly cautious to even approach the limits for fear of what could go wrong' is a form of saying 'they don't want/choose not to'.
But here I don't agree. Even those local writers who have covered the sport/team forever and will take on the Wilpons for all sorts of stuff consistently describe the fan complaints of 'don't care about the team' or 'not interested in winning' as false narratives; to a man the scribes will say how the not winning and the criticism which comes with it kills them. The problem is that the 'Pons haven't been savvy enough to build any kind of consistent success on their own while still holding onto the belief in themselves as astute baseball men in addition to being owners to the point that they're reluctant to turn over the direction of the club to someone else who might be better at it. But not being good at it isn't the same thing as not giving a shit - even if the results often look alike.
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Centerfield Jan 28 2019 09:33 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
Signing a player to a long-term mega contract does not handcuff you from making future moves if they don't work out. I think the conversation would be more productive if we properly dismissed this misconception. It's an idea that owners want you to believe, and it's thrown around like it's common knowledge. But it's wrong. A team can sign players to long term deals, and reap the benefits if they're successful, and just eat the cost if they're not. And if the players are not successful or are no longer successful, then the team can just go out and sign better players.
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Centerfield Jan 28 2019 09:44 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Sure the Wilpons want the Mets to win. And I fully believe that they hate the criticism that comes from lack of winning. But do they care enough to eat into their profits? The answer is no. They want to keep their profits and win. And maybe this decision is a conscious one and they make this election knowing that they handcuff their team. Or maybe they're drinking their own kool-aid and are genuinely surprised when their team comes up short again and again and again. But at the end of the day, they would rather take home what they've been taking home rather than invest it into winning. And it's not like they're alone in this. I talk about teams that spend (LA, Boston, Wash, Cubs) but there are plenty that fall into the Wilpon mindset. Atlanta just won the division and won't make the financial investment to go the next level. Houston is the 4th largest city in the US, but until recently the owners acted like they played in Wyoming. And poor Pittsburgh. Their owners just outright lie to their fans year after year.
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kcmets Jan 28 2019 09:47 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Benjamin Grimm Jan 28 2019 09:59 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Centerfield Jan 28 2019 10:03 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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This was from earlier in the thread. NY teams also benefit from CT, NJ, upstate NY and Long Island, but not sure how to do that math.
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kcmets Jan 28 2019 10:06 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Yes, Red Sox Nation is at least five states big.
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Gwreck Jan 29 2019 07:12 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Centerfield Jan 29 2019 07:54 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Gwreck Jan 29 2019 07:57 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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RealityChuck Jan 30 2019 10:59 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
=kcmets post_id=1825 time=1548441643 user_id=53] |
kcmets Jan 30 2019 11:15 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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Centerfield Jan 30 2019 11:57 AM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
=RealityChuck post_id=2087 time=1548871140 user_id=82] |
batmagadanleadoff Jan 30 2019 12:20 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
=RealityChuck post_id=2087 time=1548871140 user_id=82] |
Centerfield Jan 30 2019 03:16 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
The thing is, there are millions of Chucks. Guys who believe that this is a hot take and somehow this makes them smarter than the average fan.
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Edgy MD Jan 30 2019 03:21 PM Re: Everyone Team Can Afford Harper |
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