Master Index of Archived Threads


Open Thread on Strength of Schedule

Rotblatt Apr 04 2006 10:01 AM

I was curious about how April looked for us in terms of difficulty, so I'm checking it out and reporting here. I figure we'll want to update this thread as we go forward. For the moment, I'm using [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4935]PECOTA predictions[/url] as the indicator of team quality, but going forward, we'll probably want to use actual 2006 record. NYN: 5th out of 30, .543 projected record (88 W) April WAS (6 games): 28th out of 30, .432 record projected (70 W) ATL (6 games): 9th, .525 (85) SD (4 games): 19th, .481 (78) FLA (3 games): 27th, .438 (71) MIL (3 games): 12th, .519 (84) SF (3 games): 15th, .494 (80) 25 games total. 3 off days. Combined expected winning percentage of opponents: .481. Weighted average: .481 Only one team in the projected top ten. 64% of our games this month are against teams projected to lose over half their games. 17% against teams projected to tank this season. Arguably our lightest month until September (FLA, PIT, WAS). Fellow Mets fans, we need to make hay this month. May is going to be a tough one for us (STL, NYY, PHI & ATL feature heavily), so we need to build ourselves a cushion. I'm thinking 14 wins (.560 W%) at a minimum.

Yancy Street Gang Apr 04 2006 10:04 AM

Okay, I'm in! What can I do to help?

Bret Sabermetric Apr 04 2006 10:08 AM

As I mention [url=http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=2804]here[/url] it's essential for the Mets to kick ass in April, notwithstanding the issues you add. if they're close to .500 on May 1, this is going to be another long season.

Edgy DC Apr 04 2006 10:09 AM

What's an open thread? Is it like a wikithread?

Rotblatt Apr 04 2006 10:15 AM

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Okay, I'm in! What can I do to help? Not be a smartass. But seriously, I would suggest the following: 1. Honor any and all superstitions developed over your career as a Mets fan. For example, every time I thought "Ooh, I bet he hits a home run here!" during the game yesterday, I knocked on wood. (Even when watching the replay last night. It's called dedication.) 2. Develop new superstitions. Example: I bought my girlfriend a shiny new Mets hat on Sunday and "suggested" she wear it yesterday. She did. The Mets won. Therefore, during the first game of every series, I will try to get my girlfriend to wear her hat. Maybe it only works on Opening Day or against the Nats, but I won't know until I try. And damnit, if it will help the Mets, I'm willing to risk my relationship. 3. Heckle. Soriano catches Nady's hit if the fans aren't booing the living shit out of him. 4. Go to games. You can't heckle if you're not there. Well, you can, but it won't help. Unless it's a superstition, in which case, stay at home and heckle your little heart out.

Rotblatt Apr 04 2006 10:18 AM

Edgy DC wrote: What's an open thread? Is it like a wikithread? It means pretty please with sugar on top don't archive me because I plan on posting here around the start of every month. Clever, huh?

Willets Point Apr 04 2006 10:21 AM

Duly noted. Of course if you keep the thread active it won't have a chance of being archived.

soupcan Apr 04 2006 10:37 AM

="Rotblatt"]But seriously, I would suggest the following: Example: I bought my girlfriend a shiny new Mets hat on Sunday and "suggested" she wear it yesterday. She did. The Mets won. Therefore, during the first game of every series, I will try to get my girlfriend to wear her hat. Maybe it only works on Opening Day or against the Nats, but I won't know until I try. And damnit, if it will help the Mets, I'm willing to risk my relationship. I interpret this to mean that you must BUY your girlfriend a shiny new hat before every Mets game. I realize that's an expensive pursuit but hey, its called dedication. On my end I will continue to boo Carlos Beltran as that apparantly leads to Mets victories in 2006.

Yancy Street Gang Apr 04 2006 10:46 AM

That means that every day this year I'll have to make angry phone calls to Comcast. I can do that.

Rotblatt Apr 04 2006 10:48 AM

="soupcan"]I interpret this to mean that you must BUY your girlfriend a shiny new hat before every Mets game. I realize that's an expensive pursuit but hey, its called dedication. Shit, you might be right. Or maybe I just need to buy her at hat every time I'm at Shea. Well, for now, I'll try just getting her to wear it. If that doesn't work, I'll just have to up the limit on the ole credit card and start buying.

Frayed Knot Apr 04 2006 11:26 AM

That BP rankings list is one of the few I've seen so far where the top of the list is NOT dominated by AL teams. Most prognosticators think the balance of power tilts seriously toward the junior circuit this year, building on their dominance of last year's inter-league and the last few post-seasons. A lot of that stuff is simply random chance and somewhat cyclical, although 'The Hardball Times' looks at recent [url=http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-talent-gap/]trades & free agent signings[/url] as a way to explain why.

metirish Apr 04 2006 11:32 AM

Good stuff Rotty, lets hope the Randolf Mets are not slow starters like Valentine's used to be.....we need to be the beasts of the east.

Rotblatt Apr 04 2006 11:53 AM

Frayed Knot wrote: That BP rankings list is one of the few I've seen so far where the top of the list is NOT dominated by AL teams. Most prognosticators think the balance of power tilts seriously toward the junior circuit this year, building on their dominance of last year's inter-league and the last few post-seasons. A lot of that stuff is simply random chance and somewhat cyclical, although 'The Hardball Times' looks at recent [url=http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-talent-gap/]trades & free agent signings[/url] as a way to explain why. Yeah, that's all good stuff, although I'm a little leary of the math involved. I mean, I feel like the NL has a nice batch of rookies who could replace those "lost" win shares. Willingham, Hermida, Zimmerman, Fielder, Anthony Reyes, Barfield, H. Ramirez . . . What rookies are the AL trotting out? Liriano, Baker & Kubel (all Twins) & Marte? Is there anyone else significant starting off the season for AL teams? Compare expected performance from NL & AL sophmores, and I think we'll open up a can of whoop-ass there too. Anyway, strength of team all relative on the power charts, since they only plot out expected wins. As a result, even if the Yankees & Mets had equal teams, the Mets would likely win more games (thus garnering a higher spot on the rankings) simply because the teams it faces are so (allegedly) poor.

Rotblatt Apr 11 2006 11:44 AM

Well, we're 5 games into our weak month, and so far, we've done pretty well, winning 4. We remain 5th on [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4960]BP's hitlist[/url]. Washington, however, crept up from 28th to 23rd. The Brew Crew is sitting directly behind us now, at 6th--they're playing awfully well right now, and that should be a pretty good series. For the moment, however, our boys need to focus on taking at least 2 of 3 from Washington. After them, we face a swath of tougher opponents, although the Padres are currently playing like crap. ]The Mets get off on the Wright (as in David, 9-for-19, .895 SLG) foot. Pedro Martinez's toe appears to be better than his results, though his aim at Jose Guillen (two HBPs) is true. Jorge Julio's Mel Rojas impersonation is the only blemish on an otherwise uplifting week.

Edgy DC Apr 11 2006 12:04 PM

Where were the Phils last week? I see them at seven now.

holychicken Apr 11 2006 12:11 PM

Yancy Street Gang wrote: Okay, I'm in! What can I do to help? Go to every game and boo Beltran mercilessly.

Rotblatt Apr 11 2006 12:24 PM

Edgy DC wrote: Where were the Phils last week? You know, I'm not sure. I only recorded the ranking of the teams we were facing in April. The Phils are at 29th this week due to a horrendus start, but the rankings are a little screwy because they give too much weight to W-L record for the small sample size. They're projected to win 86 games (which was what the ranking for the first week was primarily based on), so they were probably between 7th & 9th last week.

Rotblatt Apr 24 2006 12:15 PM

Through April 23: 12-6 (5.22 RS/G--5th in NL, 3.61 RA/G--first in majors) At 12-6, we're right on target with our Pythagorean projection, but we've lost four of our last 7, and averaged only 3.7 runs per game in that span, after scoring 6.2 in our first 11. The good news is that our pitching has remained strong--over the first 11, we allowed 3.7. Over the past 7, we've allowed 3.4. While we're only 2 wins away from the April bar I set at the beginning of the season and we have 6 games left to play, San Diego is the kind of team we should be thrashing with regularity. Tying a 4-game series with them isn't the end of the world, but I expected us to take 3 at a minimum. San Francisco has been better than expected (10-8), but they've gotten lucky, scoring only 86 runs and allowing 100 (PYTH: 8-10). We should really take two out of three there. Atlanta's pitching has struggled (92 RA), but they've managed to outscore us on the season (97-94) despite injuries to three of their top players. I'm not predicting anything; I just hope this series won't piss me off as much as the last one did.

Centerfield Apr 24 2006 01:07 PM

="Rotblatt"]San Francisco has been better than expected (10-8), but they've gotten lucky, scoring only 86 runs and allowing 100 (PYTH: 8-10). We should really take two out of three there. Let's hope so. Tonight's starter kinda reminds me of Calvin Shiraldi. Does anyone else see it? Or is it just wishful thinking on my part?

Elster88 Apr 28 2006 11:11 AM

So far: 9-2 vs. Milwaukee, Washington and Florida 5-5 vs. Atlanta and west coast trip That's the way to do it. Beat the hell out of the weaklings and go .500 vs. the good teams and on long road trips.

Frayed Knot Apr 28 2006 11:23 AM

2 of 3 in Georgia this weekend would make it a 6-4 combo Westcoast/Atlanta roadtrip. I'll take that any week of the year.

Yancy Street Gang Apr 28 2006 11:30 AM

I'd even take 5 and 5. At worst it'll be a 4-6 trip, which isn't as bad as it really could have been.

Nymr83 Apr 30 2006 04:32 PM

2 games each with Washington and Shitsburgh this week at Shea, i want all 4 but i'll take 3. don't split with these weak teams, you've gotta load up on wins when the schedule is weak!

Rotblatt May 01 2006 12:49 PM Re: Open Thread on Strength of Schedule

Well, April is over, and we've easily passed the 14-win threshold I set for us at the start of the season, despite missing a game against Florida. As we're all aware, however, April was, on paper, our easiest month of the season, and we won't see another one like it until September. But is May really that bad? May Opponents / # of Games Against / April 23 Hit List Ranking / Hit List Factor NYM: 4th / .647 MFY: 3 / 1 /.662 STL: 3 / 6 / .565 MIL: 3 / 12 /.536 ATL: 3 / 15 / .507 ARI: 3 / 17 / .495 WAS: 2 / 19 / .472 =blue]FLA: 3 / 23 / .423 PHI: 6 / 28 / .387 PIT: 2 / 29 / .328 28 games total, 16 Home, 12 Away, 3 Off Days. We face 3 teams that are playing well in the MFY, the evil Redbirds, and the Brewers, but they're balanced out by the unadulteratedly crappy play of Florida, Phillie & especially Pittsburgh. 57% of our games this month are against teams currently predicted to lose half their games. The teams in the middle look soft to me, especially Washington, although as always, the Braves are a threat to harsh our collective mellow. Frankly, this should be another easy month despite facing the Cardinals and the Yankees, but it all hinges on whether or not the Phillies, whom we play 6 times in May, are able to get back on track. Even if they do, we should be able win 16 this month (.571 W%). That will mean playing .500 ball against the top 6 teams on this list, and .700 ball against the rest, which should be very doable. If we fail to crack 14 (.500 W%), we'll be underperforming.

Elster88 May 01 2006 12:54 PM

The placement of the Yankee games hurts a little. Coming off of a road trip, that ends in St. Louis of all places, to face the Yanks with no off day in between. Facing two of the toughest teams like that back to back will be tough. I've also thought all along that Philadelphia is a better team than they are showing themselves to be. Here's hoping I'm wrong.

Elster88 May 01 2006 02:38 PM

I think this has been touched on but not adequately explained: Why the HELL is there a four day All-Star Break?

HahnSolo May 01 2006 03:00 PM

]2 games each with Washington and Shitsburgh this week at Shea, i want all 4 but i'll take 3. I tend to agree, but Zambrano and Maine (or whoever Bannister's sub is) are going within those four games. Fingers crossed.

Centerfield May 01 2006 03:19 PM

Those two also take the ball next weekend against the Braves. (fingers remain crossed)

Yancy Street Gang May 01 2006 03:23 PM

The thing most likely to undermine this season is the dropoff in the rotation after Trachsel. It would be really nice if Maine gives a couple of solid performances, and Bannister comes back soon and learns to avoid all those jams. This will be a better season if Zambrano can be booted from the rotation. (I'm also starting to think that Heilman might be more crucial to the rotation than he is to the bullpen.)

Nymr83 May 01 2006 03:35 PM

Certainly if Zambrano continues is suckitude and Bannister doesn't return and pitch effectively the need for Heilman in the rotation grows. I don't think Gonzalez, Maine, or Lima are anything but injury replacements for one or two starts (and i'd rather use guys like that once or twice than juggle heilman between the rotation and the pen.) If a long-term problem such as the necessity of removing Zambrano for ineffectiveness were to arise i would not be comfortable with those 3 guys going forward. At that point you're either going to put Heilman in the rotation (which means you'd need confidence in another reliever, be it Bradford, Bell, Julio, Owens, or someone else entirely), make a trade, or say that Pelfrey or Soler are ready. If the Mets are ever at the point where the rotation is Martinez, Glavine, Traschel, and 2 ineffective or injured players they are not in good shape. Heilman only provides a partial solution because his loss to the bullpen could hurt almost as much as it helps. I think the Mets did themselves a huge disservice in making the Benson deal and they are going to need rotation help within the next month or so unless a) Zambrano miraculouosly stops sucking b) Maine miraculously pitches well, or perhaps most likely (of the 3) c) Pelfrey is pronounced ready to go.

Yancy Street Gang May 01 2006 03:48 PM

I hear you Namor. I wouldn't go so far to say it would be a "miracle" if Maine pitches "well" though. But I agree that the likelihood is that Maine won't give us enough over the long term (at least not this season) for us to be happy with him as a 4th starter. I'll allow Zambrano three more starts. If he's still awful, he's gotta go. He doesn't have to be released but I'd either make him a mop up guy (although we already have Julio for that) or send him to Norfolk.

Gwreck May 01 2006 04:09 PM

Yancy Street Gang wrote: I'll allow Zambrano three more starts. If he's still awful, he's gotta go. He doesn't have to be released but I'd either make him a mop up guy (although we already have Julio for that) or send him to Norfolk. 3 starts from now, Julio may well not be needed as a mop-up guy anymore. His outings recently have been encouraging -- even Sunday's, with the 5 Ks. I could see Zambrano in the 'pen, but that may mean Maine and Bannister starting until a midseason deal can be made for another starter.

Elster88 May 01 2006 04:11 PM

One more west coast trip in early June and that's it for CA/AZ this year. Can't beat that.

Gwreck May 01 2006 04:12 PM

Elster88 wrote: I think this has been touched on but not adequately explained: Why the HELL is there a four day All-Star Break? Just a scheduling quirk, to have an off-day on a Thursday following the break. Schedule doesn't allow having a 4-game series for every team that weekend.

Centerfield May 01 2006 04:14 PM

Yancy Street Gang wrote: The thing most likely to undermine this season is the dropoff in the rotation after Trachsel. While this is true, I'm not even that confident in Trachsel. He has posted a winning record only once during his years here in NY. And though he has a decent ERA, he doesn't exactly inspire confidence taking the ball in Game 3 of a post-season series.

Yancy Street Gang May 01 2006 04:17 PM

I agree, CF. I could just as easily have pointed to the dropoff after Glavine.

Rotblatt May 01 2006 04:19 PM

I agree that we'll need to move Heilman to the pen if Bannister's out for a while &/or Zambrano continues to be ineffective. Julio's the guy that could make Heilman expendeble in the pen. Sanchez has been spectacular and Wagner's rounding nicely into form, but adding Heilman in there upgrades our pen from "Solid" to "Superb." If Julio continues to improve, he could probably keep us hovering somewhere inbetween those two--call it "Good." Personally, I think Maine might be adequate, but not much better than that. Aside from Heilman, the only guys who are likely to be significant upgrades over Bannister & Zambrano are Pelfry & Soler, and I just don't see us rushing those two. Which is why I think moving Heilman (legit #3 starter upside, IMO) to the rotation if Bannister & Zambrano struggle is the right move. Next year will be interesting, what with Humber, Pelfry, Soler, Heilman, Bannister & Zambrano all presumably in the mix for the final four rotation spots. Of course, we'll likely sign a free agent SP next off-season, and at this rate, I wouldn't be suprised if we re-signed Glavine, but that just make the competition more interesting . . .

Elster88 May 01 2006 04:25 PM

I've been wanting to say it since it happened, but have been afraid of getting bashed for jumping the gun. But I'll go ahead and say it. The Julio/Benson trade could be what keeps this from being a WS winning team. (Note: "could be"). 'Course, I'd much rather have Wiggy than either of them (SC = 8 billion)

rpackrat May 01 2006 04:39 PM

]While this is true, I'm not even that confident in Trachsel. He has posted a winning record only once during his years here in NY. And though he has a decent ERA, he doesn't exactly inspire confidence taking the ball in Game 3 of a post-season series. I just don't get this. He doesn't inspire you because he has "only" gone 39-35 for teams that went a combined 212-274 from 2002-2004 (I did not count 2005 because he was injured for most of the year). If we take it back to July 2001 (after his return from Norfolk), his record over 3 1/2 years is 48-38 with a park adjusted ERA around 15% better than league average. People seem to form an initial impression of players and never budge from that impression, no matter what the player subsequently does. It seems like people decided after Trax's awful start in 2001 that he was a bad pitcher, have been forced by his performance since then to at least acknowledge that he's not bad, but can't quite bring themselves to admit that he has, in fact, been extremely effective since his return from Norfolk in mid-2001. A world-series caliber rotation does not have to consist of Walter Johnson, Lefty Grove, Tom Seaver, Warren Spahn, and Steve Carlton all in their prime. The Mets right now have two proven excellent pitchers at the top of their rotation in Pedro and Glavine, and a well above-average number 3 in Trax. Bannister is still a question mark, though I will stick by what I said at the beginning of the season based both on his minor league numbers and my own limited observation seeing him pitch in the minors: He will be a very pleasant surprise for most Mets fans. That basically leaves the 5th spot as a question mark. Zambrano has been about a league-average pitcher throughout his career; he's been awful so far this year. If he can revert to his career mean, he will be an adequate 5th starter (though I'd still like to improve the spot). People need to look at Zambrano for what he is and stop hating him for not being Scott Kazmir.

rpackrat May 01 2006 04:44 PM

]The Julio/Benson trade could be what keeps this from being a WS winning team. (Note: "could be"). Kris Benson: Career Winning % .483, career ERA+ 103 Victor Zambrano: Career winning % .530, career ERA+ 101. (stats through 2005). Benson is also a year older. I don't think substituting Zambrano for Benson in the rotation is going to make much of a difference at all.

Elster88 May 01 2006 05:24 PM

]Kris Benson: Career Winning % .483, career ERA+ 103 Victor Zambrano: Career winning % .530, career ERA+ 101. For starters, winning percentage is just about the worst way to judge effectiveness. So career winning percentage can be ignored. For seconds, well, Benson is a better pitcher. This argument is weaker, but I'd be willing to bet that Benson has a better year. You can pick pretty much any category you want to judge the word "better".

rpackrat May 01 2006 06:25 PM

I agree that winning percentage is not generally a good way to judge pitchers. A mediocre pitcher on a great team can have a great winning percentage. Of course, Zambrano pitched on a really bad team before coming to the Mets, so his winning percentage is clearly not the result of great play by his teammates. I mentioned winning % only because a previous poster cited Trachsel's w-l record to support his opinion of Trax's mediocrity. ]For seconds, well, Benson is a better pitcher. And, you base that on . . . what, exactly? His incrementally better park-adjusted ERA? His substantially worse H/IP and HR/9IP ratios? In fairness, Benson has some peripherals that are better than Z's (WHIP and K:BB ratio are both somewhat better). Point is, statistically, the 2 are virtually interchangeable except, as I noted above, Benson is older. Zambrano's biggest drawback is that we traded Scott Kazmir for him.

Nymr83 May 01 2006 06:26 PM

]3 starts from now, Julio may well not be needed as a mop-up guy anymore. His outings recently have been encouraging -- even Sunday's, with the 5 Ks. I could see Zambrano in the 'pen, but that may mean Maine and Bannister starting until a midseason deal can be made for another starter. Well, if you get to the point where you have faith in handing Julio the ball in a 1-run 7th inning then I think Heilman to the rotation is a must.

Edgy DC May 01 2006 07:02 PM

Depending on whether or not faith also blossoms in Victor Zambrano. Can't have enough pitching. But maybe we should talk about the possiblity of developing enough faith in Julio to give him a one-run seventh inning lead when we get to the point where he can get a four- and then a three-run lead.

Nymr83 May 01 2006 07:12 PM

3 runs is a "save" (not that i think it should be), i think any major league pitcher who can't get 3 outs before allowing FOUR runs 95% of the time (at least, probably more) doesnt deserve a spot on a major league roster until he can do that.

Elster88 May 01 2006 11:04 PM

Victor Zambrano: "Would you care to snack on some more of your words there, Elster88?" Looks like all the motivation Zamby needed was some trash-talking from myself. Give me ten minutes with the guy, PLEASE.

Rotblatt May 02 2006 12:45 PM Re: Open Thread on Strength of Schedule

BP's updated their hit list. Here are the updated rankings for our May competitors as of 5/2/06 TEAM: Times Will Face / HL Rank / Hit List Factor Mets: 4th, .639 MFY: 3 / 2 /.688 STL: 3 / 5 / .616 MIL: 3 / 6 /.609 ARI: 3 / 12 / .528 ATL: 3 / 19 / .467 =blue]WAS: 2 / 22 / .426 FLA: 3 / 24 / .409 PHI: 6 / 25 / .404 PIT: 2 / 29 / .320 The top 3 look even better than before, and Arizona is on the rise, helped along by Juan Cruz, who replaces Russ Ortiz in the rotation. However, the rest of our opponents continue to struggle, with Washington joining Florida, Philadelphia & Pittsburgh in the bottom third of all MLB teams. Atlanta's on the cusp of joining them. As in April, we have an opportunity to kick a few teams while they're down. We've gotta take the bull by the horns, wrestle it to the ground, and make it eat dirt til it's cried Uncle and wet itself.

Frayed Knot May 04 2006 09:36 AM

And speaking of soft parts of the schedule (and I think we were) I noticed that Pittsburgh is the odd NL-Cent team against whom we get an extra series this year. 10 games vs the Pirates - 6 at home. Also (from the 'getting ahead of ourselves dept) September somewhat rivals April on the Charmin scale. 17 of our final 20 games are against: - Pittsburgh 3 (on the road) - Florida: 7 (4H - 3R) - Washington 7 (4H - 3R) Only 3 in Atlanta break up that (supposed) cake-walk. Of course by then the young Pitt pitchers may have all gotten their acts together and the Nats & Fish could be entirely different teams so who knows. I liked the "old" days when there was no discussion of easy or hard skeds because you always played the same one as all your division rivals.

Elster88 May 04 2006 09:43 AM

Philly is a decent team.

Yancy Street Gang May 04 2006 09:50 AM

Are the Mets the only team in the NL East that doesn't play Tampa Bay this year? That would be unfortunate. I agree about the standard scheduling. I liked it when it was always 18 games against each team in your division, and 12 against the opposite division. Having three divisions in each league, plus interleague play, makes that impossible. I do like the 19 games played within the division, but I don't like that, with only a few exceptions, the Mets play only 6 games against all of the other NL teams.

Centerfield May 04 2006 10:24 AM

I wish we had to play the Cardinals once. Twice maybe.

Edgy DC May 04 2006 09:43 PM

Three and one it is.

Rotblatt May 05 2006 07:47 AM

Well, we've done our job in May so far by taking 3 of 4. We only need to take 1 of 3 versus Atlanta to stay on track for 16 May wins, but with the Phillies starting to phill into phorm, it'd help to have a bit of a cushion. We face them 6 times this month, and it's looking like that will be far from the cake walk their April record suggested. May 9 through May 25 (PHI, MIL, STL, NYY, PHI) could be a brutal stretch for us.

Edgy DC May 05 2006 08:17 AM

One way to look at it is that we've been through the absence of Beltran and nasty slumps by just about everybody in the lineup --- including one lasting most of the season by Cliff Floyd --- and come out of it above water. Maybe we'll have most of our cylanders firing for that stretch, I hope, I hope.

Rotblatt May 11 2006 09:59 AM

On this week's hit list, we check in at #4--first in the NL. ]On the right end of some dramatic victories, and now 9-2 in one-run games. Still, when injuries to the rotation--the latest a torn flexor tendon that will cost Victor Zambrano the season due to a communication breakdown--portend the arrival of the owner of both the American and National League records for highest ERA in a season of 30+ starts, you have to wonder whether the Mets are living on borrowed time now that the clock has struck Lima Time. Brewer's check in at 9th, Cards sit at 5th, Yanks at 1st. Phillies at 17th: ]Phantastic: the Phils run the table, stretching their winning streak to eight games and rising above .500. Leading the charge is Chase Utley (.483/.531/.862 with three homers) with Ryan Howard and Aaron Rowand each adding a trio of dingers. The rotation remains a problem, with Brett Myers and Cory Lidle the only starters with ERAs below 6.16. If we lose today, we'll still be on the pace I set for us prior to our current stretch of games, thanks to taking 2 of 3 against Atlanta. Every win is precious here, though, while we figure out a way to stop the bleeding from our rotation. Milwaukee's been struggling lately, losing 4 of their last 5, and with Peavy starting against them tonight, their work's cut out for them. They've played very well at home, though (11-6), and I expect a tough series this weekend.

Elster88 May 11 2006 10:01 AM

]I liked the "old" days when there was no discussion of easy or hard skeds because you always played the same one as all your division rivals. Still do, minus one interleague series, no?

Yancy Street Gang May 11 2006 10:06 AM

No. Each year the Mets (and each other team in the East) plays one extra series against a Central club. One team will get the Pirates while another will get the Cardinals.

Frayed Knot May 11 2006 10:22 AM

The culprits are Inter-League, the move to 3-divisions, and expansion. Teh Mets used to have 11 opponents, now they play 20 different teams and there's just no way to divide that evenly. That odd extra (or missing) series here and there plus the inter-league games comprise about 15% of the sked. You're also fighting for the Wild Card against teams which can have vastly different skedules. Plus, if you want to be really picky, odd numbers of games against teams means someone has an extra home game. The schedule was great after they first went to the 2-division set-up (6 teams per). The season was essentially divided into fifths with all play being INTRA-divison in the 1st, 3rd, and final 5th of the season, while the 2nd & 4th sections were cross-division. So while you were playing in-division so were al your division opponents and same w/cross division. Much easier to track as well as being fairer.

Edgy DC May 11 2006 10:37 AM

]Teh Mets used to have 11 opponents, now they play 20 different teams and there's just no way to divide that evenly. Actually there is. If they went to two 15-team leagues they could have 18 games each (9 home, 9 away) against 4division opponents (72 games); 6 games each (3 home, 3 away) against 10 non-divison league opponents (60 games, 72 + 60 = 132); and One of 6 games each (3 home, 3 away) against 5 non-league opponents in a designated (rotatiing annually) division, or 2 games each (1 home, 1 away) against 15 non-league teams (ulikely) (30 games, 72 + 60 + 30 = 162). The problem there is the belief that inter-league play has to occur at once, making an odd-number of teams in each league un-doable. Maybe it is.

Yancy Street Gang May 11 2006 10:43 AM

I've thought about setups similar to the one Edgy outlined, and I like it. It does mean that at any given time, there will be one and only one interleague series going on, but that's okay. You can arrange it so that the biggies (Mets-Yankees, Cubs-White Sox, etc.) fall on weekends, and the dull ones (Royals-Pirates) fall during the week.

Frayed Knot May 11 2006 10:45 AM

Making 2 15-team leagues wouldn't mean that inter-legue has to occur all at once, it would mean that inter-league has to occur every day of the season. Your proposal: 30 IL games per team; means an approximate doubling of the number IL games played now and approx 2-3 games IL games/day. Is that really what you want?

Edgy DC May 11 2006 11:25 AM

I'd rather have zero, but it's doable. I see no reason, why, if there is interleague play, it should occur all at once. if the Mets play three times at Fenway, the Sox should play three times at Shea. Home/away symmetry is a good value to retain.

Edgy DC May 11 2006 11:27 AM

I'd rather have zero, but it's doable. There is, indeed, away to divide that evenly. I see no reason, why, if there is interleague play, it should occur all at once. if the Mets play three times at Fenway, the Sox should play three times at Shea. Home/away symmetry is a good value to retain. Having leagues and division of equal numbers is a very very good value to retain.

Nymr83 May 11 2006 12:04 PM

the more likely way of obtaining that is to have 16 teams in each league whenever they eventually expand again with either 8/8 east/west or a stupid (for baseball) 4/4/4/4 like football has. i'd rather keep the divisions larger myself. with the league the way it is you simply arent going to get a fair schedule. i'd hate to see interleague play all year long, especially since you want as many division games as possible in september, also you'd eventually get an AL team whining about having to sit their DH the last 3 games of the year in a penant race. I don't like interleague to begin with, but in it's current form it is at least tolerable, i dont think i could stand seeing it all year.

Elster88 May 11 2006 12:21 PM

I say contract so there are enough pitchers to go around.

Edgy DC May 11 2006 12:29 PM

I've never accepted that expansion and contraction should effect pitchers at a different rate than hitters.

Elster88 May 11 2006 12:30 PM

It's time you accepted it.

Nymr83 May 11 2006 12:41 PM

before you complain about pitchers being diluted why not: 1. build ballparks to the dimensioms they had pre-1970 2. use the old baseball (the one where you could rub it and move the covering around) instead of the juiced one 3. force the umpires to call the strike zone as it is written in the rulebook, there are no high strikes called anymore. 4. get rid of the stupid DH, an idea that has polluted the game for far too long. i think you'll see an approriate drop in scoring if you implement even two of those ideas, especially the DH. on edit- 5. put the height of the mound back where it was pre-1968. i don't think pitching has changed at all, i think the rules of the game have steadily changed to favor the hitters.

Edgy DC May 11 2006 01:17 PM

]It's time you accepted it. In God I trust. All others bring data.

Elster88 May 11 2006 01:19 PM

I was j/k. There probably is a way to examine it, but it would involve work.

Elster88 May 11 2006 01:19 PM

Edgy DC wrote: I've never accepted that expansion and contraction should effect pitchers at a different rate than hitters. affect

Edgy DC May 11 2006 01:25 PM

True enough.

Nymr83 May 11 2006 03:19 PM

Rotblatt May 17 2006 01:01 PM

The Brew Crew was even tougher than expected at home, and we're now 1 win off the pace I expected, meaning we need to take another one against the Cards or win 2 of 3 from the Yankees. Yankees are pretty banged up and RJ isn't pitching well, so that proposition isn't quite as daunting as it seemed a few weeks or so. Nonetheless, they still sit ahead of us on the updated [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5083]Hit List[/url] ranking, and while Lima remains on our team, it's tough to cast stones at any other rotations. NYM: 4th, .606 W% ]Beware of Lima Time: their NL East lead has dwindled to a single game as the Mets have lost five of seven since activating Jose Lima (9.31 ERA and 19 baserunners in 9.2 innings). Even with a rotation decimated by injuries, Willie Randolph and Omar Minaya refuse to consider Aaron Heilman for a start. Heilman's part of a bullpen that's third in the NL in Reliever Expected Wins Added (3.304), which is worth something, but with the way this team is dredging up starters, expect Minaya to start fawning over scouting reports on Dwight Gooden from the Florida Prison League soon. Cards: 5th, .602 W% NYY: 2nd, .649 W% Phils: 17th, .511 W% ]Truckin': Aaron Rowand smashes into a wall in spectacular fashion, making the catch but breaking his nose, fracturing his orbital and heading to the DL for a gain of about 2.84 runs. Enigmatic prospect Cole Hamels (an Honorable Mention on our Top 50 Prospect List this year, #39 last year) tosses five shutout innings in his stellar debut, giving an underperforming rotation a boost. The loosened-up Phillies have won 13 out of 14, tightening the NL East race, but their run differential is still in the red, hence the middling ranking. Marlins: 26th, .416 W% D'Backs: 14th, .532 W%

Centerfield May 17 2006 01:27 PM

]The loosened-up Phillies have won 13 out of 14, tightening the NL East race, but their run differential is still in the red, hence the middling ranking. Does that mean the Phils have been luckier than their record? And by that Pythagorean stuff we can expect them to slow down pretty significantly?

Rotblatt May 17 2006 01:41 PM

Centerfield wrote: Does that mean the Phils have been luckier than their record? And by that Pythagorean stuff we can expect them to slow down pretty significantly? Yup. Well, more or less. They've probably gotten lucky (BP projects their record based on adjusted RS & RA and strength of schedule to be 18-20 rather than 22-16--a net gain of 4 wins), so their current rate doesn't really look sustainable. Still, P projects them to play above average ball over the rest of the way (.511 W%) but if Hamels helps to solidify their pitching, who knows?

Elster88 May 17 2006 03:06 PM

Has the Pythagorean record ever matched the actual record?

Nymr83 May 17 2006 03:20 PM

well i don't think it normally would match anymore than a batter's batting average will match his expected batting average (a stat i dont really understand) but i think the further you get from the pythagorean record the more likely you are to fall (or climb) back to earth. put another way, i'm pretty sure that with a large enough sample size (say the past 10 seasons?) if you took every team's record at the 81-game mark their second-half record will more closely approximate their pythagorean record than it will their actual record

Edgy DC May 17 2006 04:25 PM

Sure, plenty of teams have finished on their Pythagorean projection. Being that there's only 162 possible records, clustering around the mean is going to be even more concentrated than something like batting average. For king projectors, the most accurate exponent, supposedly, shouldn't be 2, but something like 1.84.

Rotblatt May 17 2006 04:26 PM

Elster88 wrote: Has the Pythagorean record ever matched the actual record? BP did a study and found that the margin for error was around 4 wins over 162 games, which is pretty darn good, if you ask me. They used the Lahman database to run the RS/RA projections for pretty much every team in history to reach that number. BP has a modified version that they use, which takes into account things like strength of schedule, park factor & quality of pitchers faced. I'd assume they do that because they found the error rate was lower that way, but I haven't actually seen a study on it.

Edgy DC May 17 2006 05:06 PM Edited 4 time(s), most recently on Jun 06 2006 10:03 AM

Last season's National League with their records, and two sets of Pythagorean records (based on exponents of 2 and 1.84, and the differences from the actual recorrds. No dead-onnies, but we do learn that Arizona manager Bob Melvin was using some pretty strong medicine to get his team the record they got --- somehow inducing them to give up a large share of their runs in one long weekend against the Mets. Team W L RF RA Pyth(^2) W Pyth(^2) L Pyth(^2) Dif Pyth(^1.84) W Pyth(^1.84) L Pyth(^1.84) Dif Ari 77 85 696 856 64 98 13 66 96 11 Atl 90 72 769 674 92 70 -2 91 71 -1 ChC 79 83 703 714 80 82 -1 80 82 -1 Cin 73 89 820 889 74 88 -1 75 87 -2 Col 67 95 740 862 69 93 -2 70 92 -3 Fla 83 79 717 732 79 83 4 79 83 4 Hou 89 73 693 609 91 71 -2 91 71 -2 LAD 71 91 685 755 73 89 -2 74 88 -3 Mil 81 81 726 697 84 78 -3 84 78 -3 NYM 83 79 722 648 90 72 -7 89 73 -6 Phi 88 74 807 726 90 72 -2 89 73 -1 Pit 67 95 680 769 71 91 -4 72 90 -5 SDP 82 80 684 726 76 86 6 77 85 5 SFG 75 87 649 745 70 92 5 71 91 4 StL 100 62 805 634 100 62 0 99 63 1 Was 81 81 639 673 77 85 4 77 85 4

Edgy DC May 17 2006 05:09 PM

Biggest shortfall belongs to Willie. That may also be related to that Arizona series of course.

Nymr83 May 17 2006 06:37 PM

you need to re-label your chart so that there is a pyth (^2) L collumn not two W columns. ]Biggest shortfall belongs to Willie thanks for the ammunition! (i already knew that though and believe we discussed it over the offseason)

Rotblatt May 17 2006 10:59 PM

Well, I think we're going to have to take 2 of 3 against the Yankees. Frankly, I think we should call tomorrow a gimme for the Cardinals and trot Lima out there until his arm falls off to preserve our bullpen. Not that Marquis is any great shakes, but our bats are going to need to be mighty indeed tomorrow.

Nymr83 May 17 2006 11:15 PM

we'll just see how it goes. i agree that if lima gets rocked early you leave him out there until his arm breaks, but lets see if maybe he can manage something like 5 innings 3 runs before we turn to oliver

Rotblatt May 21 2006 11:43 PM

At the beginning of the month, I said we had to play .500 ball against the top 6 teams on BP's hit list (MFY, STL, MIL, ATL, ARI, WAS). We've done that so far, taking 7-14, with only Arizona left to play in those among those teams. I also said we needed to play .700 against the bottom half and we're off by a bit--we're at .600 after sweeping Pittsburgh and dropping the series against Philadelphia. To meet my projection of 16 May wins, we're going to have to take 6 of the next 9. After winning 13 out of 14, the Phillies have struggled, getting swept by the Brewers and losing a series against Boston. It'll be the back half of our rotations matching up, which could mean blow-outs decided by the bullpen. Minnesota's cooled off the Brewers a bit, taking 2 of three on their home turf, but Milwaukee remains a solid team. After that, we face a surprisingly good Arizona team, who have won 6 of their last 10. Gonna be a tough road to hoe, but we've faced the worst of it--St Louis & the Yankees--and came out relatively unscathed. Time to build a little distance with a strong finish.

Rotblatt May 24 2006 10:18 AM

[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5107]Hit List[/url] rankings for 5/21 are up, and we've flip-flopped with the Cardinals. Phillies phell to 18th (.498 W%), and BP notes that their Defense Efficiency Ratio is second to last in the NL at .679 (we sit at 5th with a .716). The floundering Marlins dropped to 28th (.372 W%) after going 0-7 leading into Sunday. They've gone 3-11 in one-run games, so are getting a bit unlucky, but they're still a bad team and we need to mop the floor with them. The D'Backs slithered their way to 8th (.559 W%). Their two-headed CF monster, Byrnes/DaVanon, is batting a combined .328/.379/.528. Brandon Webb's been dynamite, but the rest of their rotation has really struggled. We'll need to hit them early and often. We need to win 5 out of the next 8 to stay apace, which means winning our current series and the next two. A quick look ahead: June will be tough. 13 games against the Giants (17th, .509), =red]Dodgers (7th, .579), =red]D'backs (8th) & =yellow]Phillies (18th) before finally getting a three-day reprieve against the =blue]Orioles (23rd). It goes downhill from there, as we square off against the Reds (14th, .519), =red]Blue Jays (9th, .552), =red]Red Sox (6th, .585) & =red]Yankees (2nd, .616) for 11 games. June is hands-down our toughest month of the year. - 17 away games, all against teams better than .500 - only 10 home games - only 2 days off, and they're both in the middle of road trips - Sox @ Boston - MFY @ Bronx Finding a way to stop the leaking of our rotation is going to be key to doing well in June. If we manage that, we MIGHT be able to win half our games. If not, our offense is going to have to be relentless.

Rotblatt May 31 2006 12:22 PM

It's do-or-die time for the Mets tonight. If they win, we'll have met my predicted win total for May at 16. If they lose, well, um, I'll be dissapointed, and you KNOW they want to avoid that. We're guaranteed to have played better than .500 ball, which means that, according to the standards I set on May 1, we won't have underperformed, even with a loss. Still, May wasn't a particularly difficult month in retrospect--in fact, I'd call it around average. We caught the Phillies while they were hot, but the Yankees were injured, kind of balancing each other out. Another series win against a tough opponent could help us hit a nasty June running. And on that topic . . . [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5132]Prospectus Hit List 5/28[/url] Mets: 4th, .601 W% Giants (16th, .510), 3 games H Dodgers (7th, .579) 3 games A D'backs (8th, .567), 4 games A Phillies (18th, .486), 3 games A =blue]Orioles (23rd, .427, 3 games H) =orange]Reds (14th, .527), 4 games H Blue Jays (9th, .562), 3 games A Red Sox (5th, .597), 3 games A Yankees (2nd, .613), 1 game A 27 games total. Brutal. Only one truely bad team, and 5 bonafide good teams, all of whom we face on their home turfs. In order to top .500 this month, we're going to need to feast on the Giants, Phillies, Orioles & Reds, and play tough against the rest. Now that we've solidified our rotation to a certain extent, I'm conservatively predicting 14 wins--.615 W% against the above 4 teams, then .429 W% against the Dodgers, D'Backs, Blue Jays, Sox & Yankees. Anything under 13 wins, and we'd be underperforming. Anything over 15, we've either caught fire, gotten some breaks, or both. July: 4 v. PIT, 3 v. FLA & 6 V. CHN. Light month. We'll need to capitilize. August: Similar to May, but without the MFY September: Light. 7 v. FLA, 3 v. PIT, 6 v. WAS

Elster88 Jun 02 2006 11:27 PM

I don't consider myself bitter or spiteful. I'm happy with this team's performance this year, and the front office deserves much of the credit. But I hope in the Baltimore series that Benson starts against Duque and that we lose 13-0. I'm not 100% sure why I feel that way. But I do. I want to win the other 2 games in the series. If Benson doesn't start against Doo K then I want to sweep Baltimore. But if that matchup happens I want a huge loss and a shut out by Benson.

Elster88 Jun 06 2006 09:47 AM

Who DH's in the AL parks this year? Lo Duca, to give his knees a rest? Valentin? If Nady is healthy by then, do they keep Milledge up and maybe let one of them DH (or Floyd, even)?

Edgy DC Jun 06 2006 09:55 AM

I think the primary DH has to be --- just has to be --- Julio Franco. He's getting good money for a small share of plate appearances.

Frayed Knot Jun 06 2006 09:56 AM

I was thinking of that last night too. It could buy Milledge an extra two weeks of major league play. Or, if Nady isn't back yet, maybe Diaz wakes up and is called up for a spell.

Edgy DC Jun 06 2006 10:05 AM

That's all true. I think the plan was for Franco. That may be eligible for re-writing now, though.

Elster88 Jun 08 2006 09:39 AM

Only 6 more games this year will start after 9. I'm pleased.

Elster88 Jun 08 2006 04:03 PM

Heard an interesting theory on Monday before the game. The Mets have the west coast trip, 3 games in Philly, a 7-game homestand including 4 with the red hot Reds, and then Interleague away games in Toronto, Boston, and the Bronx. 26 games total. The theory I heard was that if the Mets go 13-13 (or better) then they will be in great position to win the division in a walk. 13-13 would put them at 46-35 at the exact halfway mark of the year. The theory did not say that they couldn't win the division if they went under .500 in that stretch, and it wasn't that it would be extremely difficult if they went under .500. The theory was just: Go 13-13, and the playoffs will come easily.

Frayed Knot Jun 08 2006 04:52 PM

The only problem with theories like that is that it's based on going .500 during the supposed toughest part of the schedule means that it's assumed you can't possibly do worse during the remaining stretch. Oh yeah you can.

Elster88 Jun 08 2006 04:54 PM

Thanks. I still like the sound of it.

Rotblatt Jun 11 2006 10:02 PM

With tonight's sweep over the D'Backs, we're one win over projections, and, if I might say, playing some pretty decent ball. We need to win 7 out of our next 17 to match my projection for June. Should be eminently doable--the next three series are ones we should really win.

Elster88 Jun 11 2006 10:35 PM

Elster88 wrote: Only 6 more games this year will start after 9. I'm pleased. Down to 3.

Nymr83 Jun 11 2006 10:39 PM

Elster88 wrote: Elster88 wrote: Only 6 more games this year will start after 9. I'm pleased. Down to 3. it figures that those would be the first 3 days of my fall semester.

Rotblatt Jun 15 2006 12:04 PM

[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5189]Hit List[/url] for June 11 Mets take 1st after shredding the D'Backs. Mets: 1st, .611 W%, 9-3 record so far in June Phillies (15th, .500), 1 games A Orioles (25th, .444, 3 games H) =red]Reds (10th, .547), 4 games H =red]Blue Jays (6th, .572), 3 games A Red Sox (7th, .570), 3 games A Yankees (2nd, .613), 1 game A Orioles have been playing a tiny bit better, but are still at the back of the pack. Reds move up to 10th after an 8-game winning streak on the backs of some suprisingly decent pitching. Blue Jays move up as well, despite some rotation problems. Sox have been struggling, and the Yankees are somehow managing to get it done despite a plethora of injuries. The toughest stretch of the month begins after our next series against the Orioles. We've done a nice job building a protective layer of fat in the early going, but this is our chance to really make a statement to the rest of baseball. We need to win only 5 of our next 15 to match my original estimate.

Elster88 Jun 15 2006 12:59 PM

Has there been a correlation between this stuff and our record so far?

Elster88 Jun 15 2006 01:16 PM

A .500 record from here out, including today, would mean exactly 90 wins for the season.

Elster88 Jun 15 2006 04:52 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jun 16 2006 12:59 PM

Elster88 wrote: The theory I heard was that if the Mets go 13-13 (or better) then they will win the division in a walk. 13-13 would put them at 46-35 at the exact halfway mark of the year. 9-1 is a good start.

Elster88 Jun 16 2006 09:56 AM

My schedule lists the three Toronto games as all starting at 7 minutes past the hour. That's different.

Yancy Street Gang Jun 16 2006 09:58 AM

It's because Canada has an earlier harvest.

Elster88 Jun 16 2006 10:57 AM

Or maybe just Toronto does. I don't remember that at Montreal.

MFS62 Jun 16 2006 12:50 PM

Elster88 wrote: My schedule lists the three Toronto games as all starting at 7 minutes past the hour. That's different. Because they have to sing two National Anthems? Or maybe because they have contracturally scheduled commercials before each first pitch. Later

Johnny Dickshot Jun 16 2006 12:53 PM

They use the metric system up there.

Rotblatt Jun 22 2006 02:54 PM

[url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5215]Hit List[/url] for June 18 Mets with a terrible homestand--pending the results of today's game, we're at 2-4. Still, our sweeps of the D'Backs and Phillies gave us some breathing room. Mets: 2nd, .608 W%, 12-7 record so far in June Reds (12th, .524), 1 game left Blue Jays (6th, .565), 3 games A Red Sox (7th, .532), 3 games A Yankees (3rd, .604), 1 game A We need to win only 2 of our next 8 to match my original estimate. At this point, though, winning only two would be a huge dissapointment. We should win 4 at a minimum.

Rotblatt Jun 24 2006 08:44 AM

We're at 14 wins for June. I'd like to see us take one more from Toronto and 2 from Boston. I'm dying to see how our boys do at Fenway. Wright should have a field day hitting doubles off the Monster and Delgado, Cliff & Beltran hooking balls down Pesky's Pole. July SHOULD be an easy month, but the last thing we want to do is get complacent. I'm gonna say 16 games should be our target. 25 games Pittsburgh Florida Cubs =orange]Reds Astros Cubs Braves

Elster88 Jun 26 2006 10:19 AM

From August 29th to October 1 the Mets have exactly 1 day off. Here's hoping there will be a chance to rest players in late September.

Yancy Street Gang Jun 26 2006 10:24 AM

There's bound to be. I have no fear of any baseball gods, so I don't mind saying that the only suspense in September will be home field advantage in the playoffs and finding out who the first-round opponent will be.

Elster88 Jun 26 2006 10:25 AM

It's easy to snub the gods when you have a rocky orange epidermis. Actually, though, I consider myself less superstitious than most.

MFS62 Jun 26 2006 10:29 AM

Elster88 wrote: From August 29th to October 1 the Mets have exactly 1 day off. IIRC that violates the Labor Agreement. I thought there has to be a break every 20 or so days. Or was that negotiated out of the last agreement? Later

Elster88 Jun 26 2006 10:33 AM

The off-day is September 14th, so the longest stretch is about 17 straight days.

Rotblatt Jun 27 2006 09:52 AM

15 June wins so far. I'm getting greedy and want 3 more, but will settle for 2. New [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5241]Hit List[/url] Rankings. Mets check in at 3rd (.613), Sox at 5th (.594) and Yanks at 4th (.609). Here's their Sox blurb: ]An eight-game winning streak gives the Sox some room at the top of the AL East. Most impressive is Jon Lester, who strikes out 10 in just his third major-league start; thus far he's posted a 2.76 ERA and struck out 19 in 16.1 innings, though his recent competition (Braves and Nationals) aren't exactly the '27 Yankees. Meanwhile, Sox fans give Brett Myers the welcome he deserves, and David Ortiz caps an emotional day with his 12th walkoff hit and eighth walkoff homer as a Red Sock (six in the regular season, two in the postseason, and that's right, two off of Tom Gordon). Ortiz is hitting "just" .267/.375/.557, a step down from last year's .300/.397/.604, but you won't get Sox fans to admit he's slipped. This should be a great series. I'd like to see us take two, but it's all going to come down to the pitching. At a minimum, we need to avoid getting swept. and the Yankees' ]Four wins in their last five games help the Yanks shake a 3-8 slide, but they end the week two games further out of first than they started. Mike Mussina outduels Dontrelle Willis to shake a four-start slump; since his complete game against the Tigers on May 31, the Moose had put up a 6.85 ERA in 23.2 innings. He's now fourth in the AL in VORP (30.5), sixth in SNLVAR (3.2), and third in strikeouts (100). Elsewhere in the rotation, as Shawn Chacon continues to struggle (22 runs, 18 earned, in his last five starts totalling a whopping 15.2 innings), the calls for 20-year-old phenom Philip Hughes to join the rotation are getting louder. Gotta take 2 of 3 here, despite the pitching disparity. Not much change in terms of our July opponents--I'll wait til next week's Hit List to update that. In other news, our chance of hitting the playoffs, according to BP, has reached 99.5%. Our average number of wins, with the rest of the season played 1,000,000 times, is 99.9. You can't see me, but I'm knocking on wood with my left hand as I type this.

Frayed Knot Jun 27 2006 10:05 AM

Not to start prematurely ennumerating domestic fowl while still in their incubating stage - but this season has such a weird feeling to it. After 5 years of hoping to simply be in the fight, which was preceded by several where seemingly every game for months had such live-or-die implications, to now where virtually everyone (and not just NYM fans) has declared the race over in June. I mean 99.5 Freakin Percent! The leads in the divisions right now are: 2.5, 2.0, 1.5, 1.5, 0.5, .... and 12

Rotblatt Jun 27 2006 10:10 AM

Totally, Frayed. It's completely surreal. A poster over at SoSH said that Willie needs to start resting our starters as much as possible and limiting their pitch counts in preparation for October. Which is over 3 months away. Seriously, this is a little scary for me.

Centerfield Jul 31 2006 11:00 AM

16 wins in July. Of course, I have no idea if that is good or not because Rotblatt never told us how many we should expect to win.

Elster88 Jul 31 2006 01:39 PM

Only two National League teams are on pace to win 90 or more games, the Mets and the Cards. And the Cards just barely. 90 wins is a .556 winning percentage, the Cards are at .558.

Giant Squidlike Creature Aug 29 2006 12:17 PM

Bump.

Rotblatt Aug 29 2006 04:54 PM

Victory Lap or Pit Stop? In the 31 days between the start of September and October 1, we will play 30 games--a brutal stretch. Fortunately, most of it is against the plodding mediocrity of the NL and our 15.5 game lead will allow us to rest our starters liberally. While this should be little more than a victory lap for the Amazin's, there are a few compelling story lines to follow: 1. Clinch. If we clinch 18 games from now, it will put us in Pittsburgh on Saturday, September 16. The earliest we could clinch would be at home on September 6--against Atlanta, which brings us to #2. 2. Exorcise. At the start of the season, schedule-watchers like myself pointed to the final 6 games against Atlanta as the crux of our season. With the pennant firmly in our grasp, that is clearly not the case, but we still have a chance to host an event Mets fans have long waited for--the mathematical elimination of the Braves from the postseason. If we get mindbogglingly, extraordinarily lucky, we could both clinch and eliminate the Braves on September 6. Demon, I cast thee out! 3. Spoil. Florida is still in the running for the wild card. With 7 games against them in September, we could go a long way towards knocking them out. 4. Heal. Petey, Glavine, El Duque and Cliff need to get healthy and tune up for October. Our success in the post season depends on it. 5. Reach. With some inspired play, we can reach 100 wins, which would mark just the third time in Mets history that we've hit 100 or more wins--and the first time since 1988. [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5465]Hit List[/url] for August 28. September/October Schedule Mets: 3rd, .581 W% Houston (20th, .487) 3 games A Atlanta (17th, .496), 3 games H LA (9th, .532), 4 games H Florida (21st, .485), 3 games A =blue]Pittsburgh (28th, .405), 3 games A Florida 2, 4 games H =blue]Washington (26th, .435), 4 games H Atlanta 2, 3 games A =blue]Washington 2, 3 games A We face 2 crappy teams and one decent team over this 31 day stretch. Anything less than 15 would be an embarassment, but since we're probably going to rest our regulars, uh, regularly, I'm going to project only 16 wins. Anything more than that is gravy--with any luck, enough gravy to float us to 100 W's.

dinosaur jesus Aug 29 2006 05:48 PM

It would be the fourth time with 100 wins, not the third. .500 ball for the rest of the season would be okay with me--I'd like more, but I could live with that. It would at least guarantee the best record in the league.

Rotblatt Aug 31 2006 11:23 AM

Oops! Can't believe I forgot about '69, DJ! So in BP's latest Standard Postseason Odds Report, the Mets finally hit a 100% chance of making the post season, which means that the Mets, in 1,000,000 simulations, made the post season every single time. In the PECOTA & ELO adjusted reports, we failed to make the post season a couple of times, leaving us with 99.99998% shot in each (more or less). Each report predicts we'll win either a little under or a little over 100 wins.

Yancy Street Gang Aug 31 2006 11:26 AM

When we know the playoff matchups, will Baseball Prospectus simulate a million playoff series? Or do they only do this exercise for the regular season?

Rotblatt Aug 31 2006 11:34 AM

]When we know the playoff matchups, will Baseball Prospectus simulate a million playoff series? Or do they only do this exercise for the regular season? They might run the scenarios--I'm not positive. It's such a small sample size that if they do run them, they probably have lots of disclaimers. They took up Bobby V's challenge last year, simulating the Chiba Lotte Marines against the White Sox, using the Davenport translations for Japanese players. That was pretty fun, even though the good guys lost, 4-1 (still a better showing than Houston, though!).

Frayed Knot Aug 31 2006 11:40 AM

The 'Playoff Odds Report' and the mythical USA v Japan series that they did last year are two very different things. The first is simply a mathmatical exercise based on a defined schedule of games and the teams' results to this point. The other was purely speculation along the lines of a sophisticated Stratomatic approach. Figuring the playoffs here could work the same way as the in-season report once you've got the matchup set - but it would change so much from day to day that there doesn't seem to be a lot of point to it. btw, last night's win assured us of a winning season. I'm sure y'all were worried about that.

Rotblatt Aug 31 2006 11:59 AM

Good point, Frayed! I was trying to suggest that BP will probably do SOMETHING to project odds of winning, but I couldn't remember what they'd done last year . . . Do you have any recollection? I seem to remember them giving odds, maybe, but I could be wrong, and if they DID, I've no idea of what methodology they used.

Frayed Knot Aug 31 2006 12:15 PM

I dunno, it barely seems worth it to me. The benefit of the in-season report is that it takes the almost endless possibilities of the reg season - with it's dozens of games remaining, the differing schedules, the varying RS/RA ratios - and boils that down to general odds. But in a small sample like a lose-and-go-home series all that stuff becomes meaningless. Each game is more-or-less a 50/50 proposition so it doesn't take a lot to realize that going from a 1-1 tie to a 2-1 lead sends your odds soaring. Then, by the time you get near the end, you can pretty much figure out your own. If you're up 2-1 say in a best-of-5 there's only 3 possibilities left: * Lose then Win * Lose then Lose * Win On two of those 3 you advance and on one you don't ... ergo your odds are more or less .66667 You can attempt to account for those particular games by figuring home field edges or starting pitcher matchups - but by that point you're way into the speculation realm and away from actual odds.

Yancy Street Gang Aug 31 2006 01:20 PM

For a playoff series, it might make sense for them to run the simulation at the beginning of the series. Once it's underway I don't see the point of redoing them every day.