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Hypothetical Pick

Frayed Knot Apr 08 2006 12:31 AM

Two current CF-ers: Born just one day apart in different parts of the Caribbean (the pair turn 29 later this month) although "A" reached the majors almost 2 years sooner and therefore has an edge in games played and most cumulative stats. "A" holds the career edge in power {.503 in career Slg + 34 Hrs/avg season vs .479 + 25} "B" has a better career BA {.282 v .267}; OBA {.350 v .342}; and usable speed {33 SBs/5 CS per yr - vs - 14/6 ... also 8 v 4 3Bs} "A" strikes out somewhat more {126/yr v 115} and walks slightly less {63 v 67} Both have consistantly played almost every game for their careers. "A" is coming off arguably the best year of his career, "B" likely his worst. "B" is a good glove & throw guy while "A" is an all-time great So, knowing what you know about these two to date and projecting what you guess they'll be for the future (most of you have prolly figured them out by this point), supposing you could get either guy right now for the same price, same length contract (let's say 5 years starting w/'06), who would you prefer ... Andruw or Beltran ??

Bret Sabermetric Apr 08 2006 12:41 AM

Long as I can BOOOOOOOOOO, I don't care.

Johnny Dickshot Apr 08 2006 12:53 AM

If you could get either and be guaranteed to get their best effort, probably A: He just seems to have more "natural ability" and a higher ceiling if/when he applies himself. I get the feeling B tries harder since he has less innate ability overall. That could just be their respective brands, but that's how it seems.

Bret Sabermetric Apr 08 2006 06:14 AM

Seriously, I'd go with Andruw for two reasons: his career appears to be on an upward trajectory and Beltran's a downward one at this precise moment, and more critically, a rule of thumb says that the player who started playing MLB first will also be the player whose career will be longer at the other end. (Forget where I read this, but I'm pretty sure Bill James studied this oddity somewhere.)

Edgy DC Apr 08 2006 08:32 AM

Am I choosing based on those numbers of those players as hypotheticals or my further impressions of those actual two players?

smg58 Apr 08 2006 08:57 AM

Can somebody promise me Andruw hasn't been ingesting some dubious substance not currently being tested for before I make a decision? Let's face it, how can you look at what Jones and Derrek Lee did last year (or Adrian Beltre in 04) and not be suspicious?

cooby Apr 08 2006 08:58 AM

Andruw has always seemed so consistent. Maybe that's a view from afar, but you don't hear about him slumping much. My dad says he smirks an awful lot but I have always taken that as a smile

Frayed Knot Apr 08 2006 10:10 AM

Edgy DC wrote: Am I choosing based on those numbers of those players as hypotheticals or my further impressions of those actual two players? You're making your choice on the actual players. Those are their real-life numbers to date and you should choose based on that plus how you project them from this point on for an approx 5-year window. If you suspect one or both have been receiving chemical help during their career then factor that in. The "hypothetical" is merely the part about them being both available and interested in your squad at the same time for the same price and you need to decide how to spend your allowance. The MFY-fan answer of; 'Sign 'em both and make one a pinch-hitter/injury backup', isn't an option. I'd be a bit worried about how Andruw's ever-thickening body will age.

*62 Apr 08 2006 01:18 PM

smg58 wrote: Can somebody promise me Andruw hasn't been ingesting some dubious substance not currently being tested for before I make a decision? Let's face it, how can you look at what Jones and Derrek Lee did last year (or Adrian Beltre in 04) and not be suspicious? I'd want to remove his liver and adrenal glands and examine them before promising Andruw a penny.

Edgy DC Apr 08 2006 03:08 PM

I'll take either: I'd take Jones based on coming off a thundastruck year. I'd take Beltran based on the reputation for Jones's defense still surviving four years after he's deserved it. He's less than Beltran defensively right now, I think. I'd probably swing to Jones, anyway, except I can't shed the suspicion that he's been juicing.

soupcan Apr 08 2006 04:44 PM

Based on the numbers FK gave us I'd take Jones. It appears that the only significant edge Beltran has on him his speed. Why not take the player that's the same age with comparable numbers and better power?

Zvon Apr 08 2006 05:17 PM

Id have to pick Jones. All that experience during pennant races..... NY media wouldnt phase him, playin at Shea wouldnt phase him, .... nothing bothers the guy. Taking nothing away from Beltran but Jones probly wouldnt miss a step wherever he goes.

Bret Sabermetric Apr 08 2006 06:17 PM

This thread gives me an ambitious idea, probably well beyond the scope of the CPF's ability: someone should establish a kind of theoretical stock market of players' value at various points in the season. The player's value would fluctuate depending on how many more games were left on the schedule (we'd be speculating on the value of straight remainder of the year contract, after which he becomes a FA), what our needs are at that position, how the player was doing, health issues, etc. For example, this might track "facts" like Beltran's value might have been estimated at, say 21 mil, for 2005 on the first day of last season--after his run-in with Cameron and his lousy performance, at that late point in the year his stock might have fallen to a half mil or less, and by Opening Day of 2006 it might have stood at 8 or 10 million. From this thread I'd have to say that the market would prize Andruw many millions above Beltran, no?

Frayed Knot Apr 08 2006 06:39 PM

"It appears that the only significant edge Beltran has on him his speed." Well, plus BA & OBA & BBs & Ks.

soupcan Apr 08 2006 07:02 PM

]"It appears that the only significant edge Beltran has on him his speed." Well, plus BA & OBA & BBs & Ks. I said 'significant'. 13 pts on the BA, .008 on the OBA, 4 less BBs, 11 more Ks - that's a difference but not much of one.

metsmarathon Apr 08 2006 07:17 PM

why am i less of a believer in andruw than i am in carlos...? edit: overall, there's little reason to think that beltran is overall a better player than andruw. i'll hold out hope nevertheless.