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I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

batmagadanleadoff Mar 11 2019 12:48 PM

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mets-picked-a-bad-year-to-try-to-win-the-nl-east/

Ceetar Mar 11 2019 04:57 PM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

well gee, how can I resist the call of an article that's mostly self-referential links and harping on a one-off quote someone made FIFTEEN years ago.

Gwreck Mar 13 2019 06:10 AM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

Except that the main point of the article is actually this: They improved just enough to be competitive, even though nobody gives out trophies for simply being in the middle of an exciting pennant race.

Edgy MD Mar 13 2019 07:40 AM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

But (1) isn't they improved on paper but they still may not succeed, and then they'll have to make new tough decisions next year true of almost everybody? It's certainly true of the Mets' rivals in the division. If Bryce Harper shits the bed or breaks a leg, the Phillies have a 13-year problem. And (2) you do get something a trophy for being in the middle of an exciting pennant race. There's a cash reward for the players, there are increased revenues for the organization. You get to check a few boxes for next year with regard to players who successfully established themselves, and everybody gets the experience and confidence of having competed at a top level. The vacillating between the Mets don't even try and the Mets are stupid for trying is dizzying. It's almost as maddening as the swings between the Mets have to be willing to take on big contracts to succeed, and eat them if necessary and I can't believe the LOLMets are still paying Bobby Bonilla, LOLOL. Folks got to pick a point of criticism and stick with it.

batmagadanleadoff Mar 13 2019 08:57 AM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

There's nothing wrong with that article except for the usual suspects who go apeshit whenever someone dares to criticize the MLB franchise that plays in the greatest media market on the planet and has just two first place finishes in 30 seasons to show for it --those 30 seasons more or less encompassing when Fred Wilpon took over the Mets from a disgusted Nelson Doubleday in the early 90s and became the team's de facto 100% owner. It's not a criticism of the Mets to recognize that every other team in the division but the Marlins is also poised to contend for the division title in 2019. It is a criticism of the Mets, and a well deserved one, to note that the MLB franchise that plays in the greatest media market on the planet can't even come within sniffing distance of the luxury tax threshold and isn't even in the conversation for the pursuit of MLB's very best free agents. The team from New York can't go after baseball's best players. But hey, wish the author of that piece into the cornfield for not writing a delusional puff piece predicting that the Mets are gonna win 105 games this season and that David Wright is gonna return and hit 35 HR's and win the MVP. The nerve of that guy. Imagine that! Criticizing the franchise from New York City that has two first place finishes in 30 seasons.

Ceetar Mar 13 2019 09:23 AM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

fuck the last thirty seasons. That's exactly my point, if you could learn to read. It's about 2019. And It's not about 2019 in the context of a quote from 15 years ago. and yes, the Mets didn't sign Harper AND Machado, the only thing they could've even conceivably done that would've possibly (and probably not) made them clear favorites in the division. Sure, the team with one of the best rotations in the game today that DID sign and trade for some talented hitters is definitely one we should be sour on. For sure. One that has a very talented prospect that's going to be up in two weeks, and a very talented outfielder that'll likely be back sometime for the stretch run. Never mind the ability to acquire someone else between now and then to fill any holes that may or may not arise. Sniffing distance of the luxury tax? I mean, yes, I think the Mets should spend more. But spotrac has them as 7th in baseball, and tops in the division so let's not pretend they're pinching pennies and stealing money here. At least not _more_ than the other 28 teams. (no one's touching the Marlins in this regard)

batmagadanleadoff Mar 13 2019 09:39 AM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

I'm not sour on the 2019 Mets. And yes I agree with you that if the Mets don't lose a single player game to injuries and every single Met exceeds their most optimistic expectations , then the Mets should win 110 games. At least. And don't dismiss the last 30 Met seasons. It's more than half of the franchise's history and is overwhelming evidence that the meddling owners haven't a clue as to what the fuck they're doing.

Ceetar Mar 13 2019 09:53 AM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

Yes, and if they lost just an average amount of playing time to injuries and everyone only plays to projections they'll also win the division, provided one of the other teams doesn't have everything go exactly right. If I took every season in the last thirty years that started with this much talent, and had to settle with a random result from those season, we'd probably end up at least reasonably happy.

Edgy MD Mar 13 2019 10:39 AM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=4228 time=1552489073 user_id=68] There's nothing wrong with that article except for the usual suspects who go apeshit whenever someone dares to criticize the MLB franchise that plays in the greatest media market on the planet and has just two first place finishes in 30 seasons to show for it --those 30 seasons more or less encompassing when Fred Wilpon took over the Mets from a disgusted Nelson Doubleday in the early 90s and became the team's de facto 100% owner.

Get stuffed. Nobody went apeshit. Nobody ever goes apeshit except for you.

Gwreck Mar 13 2019 01:23 PM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

Edgy MD wrote: The vacillating between the Mets don't even try and the Mets are stupid for trying is dizzying. Except that neither of those is the point of the article. The point is that they tried insufficently hard. That's a fair criticism and isn't anywhere near the vacillating you suggest. It's almost as maddening as the swings between the Mets have to be willing to take on big contracts to succeed, and eat them if necessary and I can't believe the LOLMets are still paying Bobby Bonilla, LOLOL. I'm quite sure we both know which one of those are valid points. It's a mystery to me why people care so much about how a contract buyout was structured. It's not their money. I trust we need not give much concern to Madoff-related schadenfruede.

Ceetar Mar 13 2019 01:38 PM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

If the point was they tried 'insufficiently hard' they failed. Just normal spring #content filler schadenfruede about how they didn't sign the guys _I_ thought they _had_ to sign. If they sign Harper instead of the Phillies, they've got a leg up on the Phillies and Braves but still trail the Nationals in most projections. They certainly aren't "running away" with it. It's hard to take the "should've signed both Machado and Harper" arguments that seriously when, yes of course they should've tried to land one of them, but it's the exact same argument Yankees fans are having, who are in a very similar situation (thought a much bigger WC cushion given how crappy the AL is) just not filtered through the #LOLMets lens.

Edgy MD Mar 13 2019 01:49 PM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

Edgy MD wrote: The vacillating between the Mets don't even try and the Mets are stupid for trying is dizzying. Except that neither of those is the point of the article. The point is that they tried insufficently hard. That's a fair criticism and isn't anywhere near the vacillating you suggest. No, the point is that "The Mets Picked A Bad Year To Try To Win The NL East." The thesis is right there in the title. And then, the subhead is "But at least they're trying" which puts them in damned if you do and damned if you don't territory. The article is rife with distortion and opinion stated as fact, and decidedly short on data analysis, which is supposed to be 538's stock in trade.

Farmer Ted Mar 13 2019 02:36 PM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

Five-Thirty-Eight had Hillary at a 98 percent chance to win. Nerds!!

batmagadanleadoff Mar 15 2019 08:25 AM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

Edgy MD wrote: The vacillating between the Mets don't even try and the Mets are stupid for trying is dizzying. Except that neither of those is the point of the article. The point is that they tried insufficently hard. That's a fair criticism and isn't anywhere near the vacillating you suggest. It's almost as maddening as the swings between the Mets have to be willing to take on big contracts to succeed, and eat them if necessary and I can't believe the LOLMets are still paying Bobby Bonilla, LOLOL. I'm quite sure we both know which one of those are valid points. It's a mystery to me why people care so much about how a contract buyout was structured. It's not their money. I trust we need not give much concern to Madoff-related schadenfruede. It's a total bullshit argument that reeks of the usual contrived desperation to defend everything Mets because the article makes no reference, not even indirectly, to the Bonilla contract. The Mets could've done a lot better this off-season. It's not complicated. But hey, Fred Wilpon is doing a bang-up job so lay off of him and his two first place finishes in 30 seasons. I can't you tell you how many times I conflate eff and Jeff Wilpon with Theo Epstein and Bill James. I don't know what the hell he's talking about anyway. Is he saying that the Mets are right not to pursue baseball's best players and the reason the Mets shouldn't pursue baseball's best players is because people mock the Bonilla contract?

Ceetar Mar 15 2019 08:49 AM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

The Mets could've done a lot better this off-season. They didn't sign Machado or Harper. They DID sign one of the best catchers available, and actually offered one of the others a better contract than he got. They DID acquire one of the best relievers in baseball, and brought back another top flight one. They DID acquire two excellent infielders. Lowrie was near tops in WAR last year. Cano is second behind only Altuve the last three years. Lowrie isn't as good as Machado, but he's really really good. He was better than Harper last year for example. They've got Pete Alonso, highly touted prospect, waiting in the wings. McNeil looked very promising, but they didn't just say "well, he showed up he can have the job". They've got him for depth, even if they play him out of position in the meantime. They've got one of the best rotations in baseball. This is a good team. This is potentially a great team. This isn't "defend the Mets at any cost" this is realistic valuation of what the Mets have. And it's good.

Edgy MD Mar 15 2019 10:10 AM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=4353 time=1552659951 user_id=68]It's a total bullshit argument that reeks of the usual contrived desperation to defend everything Mets because the article makes no reference, not even indirectly, to the Bonilla contract. The Mets could've done a lot better this off-season. It's not complicated. But hey, Fred Wilpon is doing a bang-up job so lay off of him and his two first place finishes in 30 seasons. I can't you tell you how many times I conflate eff and Jeff Wilpon with Theo Epstein and Bill James.

But I'm the one who goes apeshit. Got it.


=batmagadanleadoff post_id=4353 time=1552659951 user_id=68]I don't know what the hell he's talking about anyway. Is he saying that the Mets are right not to pursue baseball's best players and the reason the Mets shouldn't pursue baseball's best players is because people mock the Bonilla contract?


Then I would encourage you to try to suss out meaning before you get all pissed at me. Again.

batmagadanleadoff Mar 15 2019 01:18 PM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

Sniffing distance of the luxury tax? I mean, yes, I think the Mets should spend more. But spotrac has them as 7th in baseball, and tops in the division so let's not pretend they're pinching pennies and stealing money here. At least not _more_ than the other 28 teams. (no one's touching the Marlins in this regard) Saying that the Mets have the 7th highest team payroll in baseball as evidence of their supposed largesse is misleading. The top MLB payrolls are not as bunched together as are the payrolls of the middle and bottom of the pack teams. The distribution curve for MLB payrolls is more skewed than bell-shaped. What this means is that the Mets, though ranked 7th in payroll by spotrac, are much closer to the 22nd ranked Blue Jays in payroll than to the MLB leading Red Sox. But Jesus H. Christ on a stick dipped in bullshit -- it's even worse than that. spotrac is including David Wright's 2019 salary in calculating the Mets total 2019 payroll. Put all of this this in context, ferchrissakes --- New York City, the world's largest market, yada yada yada --- the Wilpons are still fucking cheapskates and a fresh coating of Robinson Cano isn't changing that perception. So the Mets from the greatest city in the world have, essentially, a league average payroll. And 538's ELO projections has them as the 11th best team in baseball, projected to win 85 games. That sounds about in line with a true payroll that's slightly above league average, if you assume a strong positive correlation between payroll and wins, which exists. It looks like business as usual for the Wilpons, with their half measures and corner cutting. According to ELO, the Mets aren't fielding a team that, on paper should win 90+ games, a virtual necessity to win the division. (Hah! First place. That's something that Fred Wilpon specializes in.) . Nope. It's the usual Wiponian standard business operating practice of hope and a prayer for extraordinarily good luck. Which means hoping that some Mets wildly exceed their ceilings and minimal injuries. You get what you pay for. And if Jeff Wilpon and the Mets are gonna have the audacity to cite payroll figures that include Wright's salary, maybe you should start hoping that Wright comes back and hits 30 HR's so that the Mets can get their $16M worth. They've got one of the best rotations in baseball. This is a good team. This is potentially a great team. This isn't "defend the Mets at any cost" this is realistic valuation of what the Mets have. And it's good. I totally agree with you. But I also agree with the 538 piece, about the Mets not doing enough. The two thoughts aren't mutually irreconcilable.

Ceetar Mar 15 2019 02:01 PM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

it took you like three paragraphs of caveats to even attempt to quantify it. Payroll is not a 1 to 1 relationship with wins, especially year to year, and the Mets did quite a bit to address holes. Machado over Lowrie only really makes them about a win or two better, depending on your projections. I have no idea what 538's ELO is, but it seems like all hte projections systems project them somewhere in the mid-high 80s. Also most of them have the Nats around 90 to, so 'virtual necessity to win division' is pushing it. If you swap out Lowrie and Lagares/Davis/whoever for Machado AND Harper, it's still not a given they're projected above the Nationals.

Centerfield Mar 15 2019 02:23 PM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

Just read the article. I don't see how anyone can take issue with the points raised, as most seem pretty obvious and can't reasonably be contested. If anything, maybe the article has a few too many theses. But all are pretty solid. I'll skip the headline under the premise that writers don't typically write their headlines. 1. NL East race should be merciless. So maybe the Mets are a bit unlucky that their "go for it year" coincides with that of Washington, Philadelphia and the Braves. I don't see how one can argue this point. Many years the NL East is a two team race, and in some divisions you can't even find two teams really trying to win. Sucks for the Mets. Oh well. That's life. 2. The Mets improved a lot, but stopped at the point of being competitive, rather than pushing to be the division favorite. Hard to argue with this. All projections put them in the thick of the race. They can easily finish first or fourth. Had they fully committed to winning, they could have raised these projections to the mid 90's. But they did not. And because of that, their chances at falling short are greater. Their chance at success is lower. Obvious, yes. Contestable? Not really. 3. But hey, give them credit for at least trying. Agreed. So many teams aren't even pretending to compete. Atlanta could have blown the entire division out of the water but chose to sit back and do relatively little. So credit to the Mets. 4. When it comes to putting a quality product on the field, the Wilpon family hasn't exactly earned the benefit of the doubt. Again, I don't see how this can be reasonably contested. It's not a one year thing. Sure, the quote is 15 years old, but it's very telling. The Wilpons don't want a 95 win juggernaut. At least not enough to give up profits to get one. They want the team that's in the pennant race in September. That's why the quote is relevant. That's why the history is relevant. 5. They slide in 23 million under the luxury tax and should have spent more. Again, hard to argue with this. They play in NY. They are going for it. Spend the dough. Everyone talks about Harper and Machado. Don't like them? Get Britton instead of Justin Wilson. Get Adam Jones instead of Keon Broxton. Get Andrew Miller, or Adam Ottavino, or that CF'er who's always hurt who's name I already forgot. Get Gio, or Keuchel. In other words, do what the guys at the top are doing, the ones that make the playoffs year after year. Stop doing what the Mets do.

Centerfield Mar 15 2019 02:35 PM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

Also, I'm pleasantly surprised to see that the Mets project to 7th in payroll. I would have expected we'd be far lower. I do think there are a few mitigating factors. 1. There is insurance money and money offset for Cano that I think takes the actual number a little lower. But maybe other teams have some of this too. 2. I think we moved up not because we opened things up, but because other teams scaled back. But good for us if they're scaling back. 3. We should be near the top because we play in NY, but as far as our division goes, we outspent all of our competitors. So that's something. I'm a little less mad at the Wilpons now. "Hey our owners still suck, but it looks like other owners are becoming more Wilponian, so that means they suck a little less in comparison. Go Mets!"

Ceetar Mar 15 2019 02:37 PM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

Well the contesting is pretty obvious, and I don't give a crap who writes the headline for you. It's attached to your writing. Take it up with your boss if you're being misconstrued. They might not have been the division favorite even if they invested 600 million. Certainly not if they only sign one. Spoiler alert, no one fucking cares about building a juggernaut. The 'stay relevant, stay profitable, be in the mix' is pretty much the mantra of every team. Again, the Cubs and the Yankees are both having the exact same arguments about Harper and Machado. Not saying there's nothing there, and the Wilpons have plenty of problems, but they've been better than most in compensating players the last few years. They could've spent more. Sure. They could've said "deal with it" to one of their starters and signed another one and made someone go to the bullpen. (they still can, and they still can a month from now) But none of those names you list there are superstars. some of them are very average, trending down, or outright bad. Do what the top teams are doing? is that the Padres and Phillies? They're nowhere near top teams.

Centerfield Mar 15 2019 02:53 PM Re: I was in the Right Place, but it Must've been the Wrong Time.

As I said, the points cannot be reasonably contested. And your contests are not reasonable. Well the contesting is pretty obvious, and I don't give a crap who writes the headline for you. It's attached to your writing. Take it up with your boss if you're being misconstrued. I have no real issue with the headline either. Just chose to ignore because it's not the writer's words. They might not have been the division favorite even if they invested 600 million. Certainly not if they only sign one. I guess. If you spend it foolishly. Spend it wisely and it's pretty easy to project as the division favorite. Spoiler alert, no one fucking cares about building a juggernaut. The 'stay relevant, stay profitable, be in the mix' is pretty much the mantra of every team. Again, the Cubs and the Yankees are both having the exact same arguments about Harper and Machado. Not saying there's nothing there, and the Wilpons have plenty of problems, but they've been better than most in compensating players the last few years. The Cubs and Yankees are each spending $50 million more than the Mets. To compare their situations with the Mets is not reasonable. And I said no one should be "blamed" if they don't like Harper or Machado specifically. But to pocket the money and not spend it on anyone else. That's the issue. They could've spent more. Sure. They could've said "deal with it" to one of their starters and signed another one and made someone go to the bullpen. (they still can, and they still can a month from now) But none of those names you list there are superstars. some of them are very average, trending down, or outright bad. Do what the top teams are doing? is that the Padres and Phillies? They're nowhere near top teams. Why does someone have to be a superstar for a team to spend money on them? Really, I don't get your argument. You can't sign superstars because one player isn't worth that much investment. But you can't spend money on the other guys because they're not superstars. Why do you bring up the Padres and Phillies? When I say "top teams", I mean literally, the teams at the top of the list. The Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers.