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OK, so here's the math ...

Frayed Knot Sep 22 2019 07:48 AM

I said 12 games ago (quoting Gary) that the Mets likely needed to lose no more than four games (go 16-4) in order to push this season past next Sunday. Well, they lost four games since then (8-4) meaning we're in a pickle (just in case you didn't already know that). So they basically need to run the table -- win vs Cincy on Sunday, then 4-0 from Miami, then 3-0 vs Atlanta -- and end up 88-74 in order to TIE for a Wild Card slot If Two or More of the following also happen ... - the Nats (7-5 over their last 12) go no better than 3-6 over their remaining nine games: 1 @ Miami; 5 at home vs Phils (DH on Tuesday); 3 hosting Indians - the Brewers (10-2) go no better than 3-4: 1 more walkover against Pirates; (off Monday); 3 at Cincy; 3 at Colorado - the Cubs (5-7) go no better than 6-1: final game at Wrigley vs Cards; (off Monday); 3 at Pittsburgh; 3 at St Louis We can also technically tie with the Cards by winning out while they lose out, but that would automatically give the Cubs four wins and the DBacks three so that kinda makes it not worth considering. And obviously if we go a mere 7-1 this week then all of the above numbers get bumped up by one and so on, but losing even one game also brings both the Phils and Diamondbacks into the mix. We're currently even in the loss column with Philly so we already need their losses going forward to surpass ours in order to keep them from gumming up the works (making rooting for them to sweep five vs the Nats a bit tricky) and we're one loss ahead of the Snakes. The Phils have nine games remaining: The ESPN Sunday Night game at Cleveland, 5 at Washington, 3 hosting the Marlins DBacks (7): today in San Diego, then home for 3 vs Cards, 3 vs Padres So, uhh, yeah. The odds here would certainly have been a lot better had the Brewers fallen into a hole like they were supposed to following the Yelich injury instead of somehow catching fire. Not having the Marlins, Padres, Pirates, Reds, and Rox on their schedule coming down the stretch would have been a help as well.

nymr83 Sep 22 2019 08:06 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

Over the course of a full season the Brewers wouldnt even contend without Yelich, but this is baseball not the NBA, they dont become automatic losers when their best player is sidelined, unfortunately for us

41Forever Sep 22 2019 08:15 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

It was a good run.

kcmets Sep 22 2019 08:53 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

Dizzying!

batmagadanleadoff Sep 22 2019 09:19 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

The Mets have been playing good ball for the most part as of late. Eight and four is (two out three) (times four) and I know how everyone feels about two of three. But it ain't easy gaining ground on a team that ain't losing any games. The Brewers are the hottest team in the league going back a week, week and a half.

Frayed Knot Sep 22 2019 09:29 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

We also need one more win to clinch a .500 season; two or more wins over the final eight puts us in the black. Or we could just tank the entire week in order to secure that all-important (14th?) draft pick next June. No telling how much that will benefit us in the 2025 season over getting say the 17th or 18th pick.

MFS62 Sep 22 2019 09:33 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

=nymr83 post_id=22525 time=1569161198 user_id=54] Over the course of a full season the Brewers wouldnt even contend without Yelich, but this is baseball not the NBA, they dont become automatic losers when their best player is sidelined, unfortunately for us

Since they've seen they don't need him to be successful, maybe they'll trade him to the Mets.

I just asked Mr. Spock and he told me that's logical.

Later

smg58 Sep 22 2019 09:52 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

So you're saying we've still got a shot?

MFS62 Sep 22 2019 09:56 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

=smg58 post_id=22538 time=1569167566 user_id=62] So you're saying we've still got a shot?

Of course.

Later

Frayed Knot Sep 22 2019 09:57 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

The Mets have been playing good ball for the most part as of late [8-4] ... But it ain't easy gaining ground on a team that ain't losing any games. Eight and four is good, but they put themselves in a position where they had to be great and/or hope for train wrecks by others and neither has happened. So while that stretch (following the 9/7 & 9/8 weekend losses to Philly) has netted the Mets three games vs both the Cubs & DBacks*, they've gained just one game on the Nats and the Cards, 1.5 on Philly, and have lost two full games to Milwaukee. aka: TLTL * Thx to the four-game sweep, meaning that we've actually lost a game to them otherwise.

ashie62 Sep 22 2019 10:31 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

The Atlanta series, did, us , in

kcmets Sep 22 2019 12:38 PM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

Howie presents the tragic number at 4. Any combo of Brewcrew wins and Mets losses sticks a fork in it all.

Frayed Knot Sep 22 2019 04:11 PM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

Howie presents the tragic number at 4. Any combo of Brewcrew wins and Mets losses sticks a fork in it all. And now it's three w/the Brews winning today - although at least for once Pitt didn't lose by a blowout (4-3). But that alone can't 'stick the fork in'. Remember we "only" have to catch two of the three ahead of us, not all of them. Still tough, but not impossible and we cut a game off both the Nats & Cubs lead this afternoon. Just 1/2 game in back of the Cubs now.

seawolf17 Sep 22 2019 04:16 PM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

The Marlins got swept by both the Brewers and Nationals earlier this month - winning even two of those seven games would have been nice.

Frayed Knot Sep 22 2019 04:33 PM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

And those Marlins sweeps are now forcing us to NEED our own four-game Marlins sweep. OK, so now instead of needing to go 8-0 we only have to go 7-0 (piece o' cake, right?) and have ONE of the following occur ... - the Nats go no better than 3-5 - the Brewers go no better than 2-4 PLUS - the Cubs (6 games remaining), Phils (9), and DBags (6) all need to all lose at least once Still tough, but a bit easier than it was four hours ago.

Chad ochoseis Sep 22 2019 05:19 PM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

The tough thing about the Nats losing, of course, is that it probably means the Phils are winning. If the Phils go on a tear, with two more games to play than us, they can be a factor.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 22 2019 06:21 PM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

And Alonso's supposed to hit three homers in seven games.

nymr83 Sep 22 2019 07:52 PM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

=ashie62 post_id=22542 time=1569169918 user_id=90] The Atlanta series, did, us , in

if i'm picking a point of no return on this season, its still the 7 run bottom of the 9th on September 3rd against Washington.

G-Fafif Sep 22 2019 08:00 PM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

We lead Philly by 1 1/2 for regular NL East third place. It's not exactly the goal in all this, but finishing ahead of them would be delightful.

Edgy MD Sep 22 2019 08:04 PM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

I like that ashie's surrender is followed by his YGB! sigline.

Frayed Knot Sep 22 2019 08:10 PM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

The Cubs, btw, not only got swept four straight by the hated Cardinals, but did so by losing each of the four games by one run, one of them in 10 innings. Ya think THAT might be a cause for 'What-iffing' yourself to death all winter? It also might 'What-if' Joe Maddon right out of a job.

G-Fafif Sep 23 2019 12:09 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

The Mets trailed the Cubs by 5 games after the three-game sweep by them of us in late August. The Mets have gained all but a half-game of that margin back. Stupid Brewers.

Edgy MD Sep 23 2019 07:21 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

How fat this team would be sitting if they had just flipped the result of one key game — had one fewer bullpen meltdown. Or if the season was perhaps two games longer.

DocTee Sep 23 2019 07:25 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

The killers for me were three extra-inning losses at San Francisco just after the ASG. Winning two of those would have helped.

Centerfield Sep 23 2019 08:00 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

There are so many if you start doing that. *The Washington meltdown game *What if Pete doesn't throw away that ball in the Sunday game of that Nats series *What if Pete doesn't argue with the umpires and that Cardinals game becomes a rain-shortened win instead of a Diaz blown save *What if we could have just gotten a sac fly during that extra-inning game Friday night game against Atlanta *The Diaz meltdown in LA *If only Matz could have retired the pitcher on Monday *Getting swept by the Marlins. WTF *Losing 3 of 4 to the Giants *If we had a healthy McNeil for the Braves-Cubs series *If Nimmo had been diagnosed properly back in April *If Duaner Sanchez doesn't get hungry for tacos

Fman99 Sep 23 2019 08:50 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

Man, I'm still pissed that they got swept by the Cubs last month.

Frayed Knot Sep 24 2019 02:40 PM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

So, as you likely said sometime around 8th grade algebra, mathematics is definitely not our friend these days. The Nats just won the 1st game of today's DH vs Philly which, in addition to last night's win, eliminates Philly from any & all post-season possibilities. But, hey, at least they saved Aaron Nola for the night-cap!?!?! But this just about cooks our goose as well. We're now 6.0 games behind the Nats & 5.0 behind the Brewers, and 1.0 in back of the Cubs (all have six games remaining) -- all of which means we need to run the table AND ... -- have the Nats lose out in which case we'd tie them for a WC play-in scenario -- have the Brewers lose out in which case we'd finish one game ahead, or go 1-5 in which case we'd tie them -- hope the Cubs lose at least once (to tie with them) or more than once which would eliminate them And the only possibility where we AREN'T required to go 6-0 would be going 5-1 while Milwaukee loses out and the Cubs lose at least twice. So, yeah, I'm saying there's a chance.

Centerfield Sep 24 2019 03:54 PM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

Mets win every game. Everyone else loses every game. Mets win the first WC and the second WC gets cancelled because no playoff team should lose their last five games.

kcmets Sep 24 2019 08:38 PM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

=Fman99 post_id=22612 time=1569250222 user_id=86] Man, I'm still pissed that they got swept by the Cubs last month.

That was really one of the daggers.

Frayed Knot Sep 24 2019 09:13 PM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

Math just got a lot simpler: Step 1 -- Sweep the remaining two with the Marlins Step 2 -- Sweep the Braves' collective asses over the weekend Step 3 -- Have the Brewers lose the next two in Cincinnati and then the three after that in Denver ... at which point we'll meet the Brews for a play-in game on Monday for the right to play the Nationals on Tuesday which would be for the right to meet the Dodgers in Round 1 starting on Thursday. See how easy that all is?

Frayed Knot Sep 25 2019 04:47 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

=Centerfield post_id=22740 time=1569362044 user_id=65] Mets win every game. Everyone else loses every game. Mets win the first WC and the second WC gets cancelled because no playoff team should lose their last five games.

Where was that fucking rule back in 2000? #yanx'L'infinal7 (also 4-15)

seawolf17 Sep 25 2019 07:19 AM Re: OK, so here's the math ...

Frayed Knot wrote: Math just got a lot simpler: Step 1 -- Sweep the remaining two with the Marlins Step 2 -- Sweep the Braves' collective asses over the weekend Step 3 -- Have the Brewers lose the next two in Cincinnati and then the three after that in Denver ... at which point we'll meet the Brews for a play-in game on Monday for the right to play the Nationals on Tuesday which would be for the right to meet the Dodgers in Round 1 starting on Thursday. See how easy that all is? Sounds completely reasonable to me. Let's do it.