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How Close Are We?

Centerfield Sep 24 2019 12:11 PM

An early look at how much work the Mets are facing as we look at 2020. The simple facts. We are 14.5 games behind Atlanta for the division. 3rd Place. We are 4.5 games out of the second WC. 4th place overall. We should win somewhere around 85-86 games. We never really competed for the division, but were in the WC mix until mid-September. If the goal is the division (and it should be), we have to figure out how to make up 14-15 games on Atlanta. If you're ok with a play-in game (and you shouldn't be) then the goal is a bit easier. Atlanta has 96 wins and counting. But they're Pythagorean record is 89-68. So maybe they are actually a low 90's win team, rather than a high 90s/100 win team. (The Mets are just about even with their Pythagorean record). Still, you figure they have to make up 9-10 games on them at least. Atlanta was 7th in MLB in runs scored. Washington was 8th. The Mets, despite relative health and breakout seasons from McNeil and Alonso, were 13th in offense. The Mets were also 13th in overall pitching (Atlanta was 8th, Washington was 14th). Broken down between SP and the bullpen, the picture gets a little clearer: Starting Pitching: Washington (2nd); Mets (7th); Atlanta (10th) Bullpen: Atlanta (11th); Mets (26th); Washington (30th!!!) And finally, fielding. The Mets with -29.7 DRS were 27th in the league. Atlanta was 7th and Washington was 19th. As far as health, the Mets were extremely lucky. Their top 4 starters will all make 30 starts. Stroman and Vargas will combine for another 30. Their top 3 hitters (Alonso, Conforto, McNeil) all had 500 ABs. Ramos and JD Davis were also healthy. Of their main pieces, only Nimmo and Cano (and Cespedes) missed significant time. I think it would be prudent not to count on luck repeating itself. So where does that leave us. Obviously the easiest place to start it the bullpen. Everyone agrees this needs significant upgrades. I don't know that there are a lot of free agent options out there besides Chapman (pass) and Betances (big question mark). But Brodie and company have their work cut out for them. As far as offense, a 13th ranked offense is not going to cut it. Especially if you figure they will be a bit unluckier with injuries, and Alonso may have some regression. Maybe you offset some by a full year of JD Davis, and the (hopeful) return of Cespedes. Still, this offense has to be upgraded in some way. The problem is there are very few places it can be done. You are set at 1B, SS, C, and all three OF Positions. 2B is occupied by Cano who is not moveable, and McNeil has to play someplace. I dunno. Maybe you can package a guy or two in a trade and bring in an impact bat. But I'm not sure I want Brodie to be in charge of any more trades. Same thing with the defense. Most of these guys are back next year. So I guess you just hope they improve (like Amed did). The easy one is the starting pitching. We can't afford any downgrade from what we already have. This means keeping Wheeler or replacing him with someone better. If Oswalt/Lockett/Flexen are making starts in 2020, this will also mean failure (the very last thread I started on the old board was how we needed one more starter). Bring in a veteran who can also give you long relief if the rotation is healthy. Lots of options available this winter. One thing I would NOT do is trade Syndergaard. That would be dumb. Which is why we will spend all winter listening to trade rumors for Noah.

seawolf17 Sep 25 2019 07:25 AM Re: How Close Are We?

The defense is a fuckin' shitshow. As I scrolled down the Athletic article on the "best defensive player from each team" yesterday, I paused to think who they would probably pick for us... and couldn't think of a single position where I'd say we were good defensively. (They picked McNeil.)

Ceetar Sep 25 2019 07:40 AM Re: How Close Are We?

1B metrics are particularly circumspect, but I'm surprised at how badly Alonso is scored there. I don't feel like he's been that bad, though granted my close focus on games the last few seasons to notice things like that is extremely limited. It's possibly the Metrics are actually overrating him too, because I'm not confident they truly take into account what's needed over there as it pertains to each play. But Comforto and Nimmo are probably both at least average on the corners. McNeil on the infield. I think Rosario maybe has gotten to an 'average'ish place, at least as far as next year's hopes go. Lowrie should be at least average. There's probably an argument to be made to shake up CF and C and go harder on defense there, but you'd need a decent step up offensively to what we got from Lagares and Nido this year to make that work. Brewers are gonna exercise Grandal's option. Ramos was certainly a solid second choice, but man, it's hard not to see the Mets and Brewers flip-flopped if Grandal takes the Mets superior offer.

smg58 Sep 25 2019 08:27 AM Re: How Close Are We?

Replacing Wheeler with Gerrit Cole would be a nice start. It's tough to tell what to do with the lineup, when the position most in need of help (second base) already has $30M committed to two players. Real centerfielders are very hard to come by right now, unfortunately, but I would be willing to part with Conforto to get one. Rosario improved with bat and glove as the season moved on; simply picking up where he left off would bounce our defense up quite a bit. I guess the hardest question is do you trade offense for defense behind the plate. As for the pen? Well we've already seen that going all-in on relief pitchers is high risk, low reward. I think you have to hope that Diaz and Familia remember how to pitch, because there is no point getting pennies on the dollar for them. And then, you try to find the guy who's being undervalued.

Johnny Lunchbucket Sep 25 2019 09:39 AM Re: How Close Are We?

Alonso's problem on D is that he too often makes bad decisions of where to go--chasing the ball to the hole or covering, etc. But we can live with that. As always a super CF flychaser who can also hit would be a nice addition. Rosey made too many careless plays early this year and may not ever be a top-tier D SS but I'll go out on a limb and say IRL he's probably average by Eyewitness Defense. There is nobody coming to take his job yet, and his hitting is becoming better than average. Would be nice to supplant Cano if only for the offense. Yeah I dunno how we get better. maybe they trade JDD to an AL team for a motherfucker who can hit and field.

Vic Sage Sep 25 2019 10:45 AM Re: How Close Are We?

Acquiring a good defensive CFer that can hit will require either sitting one of (or platooning two of) Nimmo, Conforto, Davis, and/or Cespedes, but i'd do any or all of that if such a unicorn could be found. *Obviously, we should try and move Cespedes, but nobody is taking him, so (despite his salary), he needs to come back slowly (if he comes back at all), maybe in a LF platoon; *I'd prefer to hold onto Nimmo, as he fulfills a very important and valuable role as an everyday leadoff guy; *Conforto's production level has been growing each year, and he's entering his age-27 season, which is generally begins a player's peak/prime period, so i think trading him would be a mistake unless we are getting such a unicorn. But if we're keeping him, he might be more useful in a platoon, since his splits are not good and not improving; *Davis has no position and has more trade value now after a breakthrough season, so i would think he'd be the one to go. * which would mean an OF of Cespedes/Conforto, [unicorn}, Nimmo. As for the infield: McNeil, Rosario, Cano, Alonzo, Ramos. If Cano can bounce back, that's a good-hitting IF with average defense, and Lowrie, D.Smith and Davis (as of now) on the bench, which is strong, too. It would be nice to add a LH catcher with a good glove to replace Nido, but if we can get a 2-way catcher and trade Ramos, that would be great. But such a player is a unicorn, too. And yes, Gerrit Cole would be great to pair with deGrom to give us the 1-2 punch we were hoping to get (but too often didn't) with Syndegaard and/or Wheeler. Of course we need to get more and better bullpen arms, but they are so erratic from year to year (and game to game), that it's hard to do that in a reliable way (e.g., see Diaz). They are going to have to try and rehabilitate Diaz before giving up on him completely, and they have big money tied up with familia, so they're both likely going to still be there, with Lugo and Wilson. And Gsellman will be back, too, but who knows what he will give us. So we need a great CFer, a Great SPer and a great RPer (and maybe a better defensive catcher who can hit, too) to be competitive next year... just like most every other team in BB.