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I guess the thread from the spring has been relegated to the archives.
Here are the pre-season predictions from FiveThirtyEight.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/
They did pretty well. Of the six projected division winners, three won their divisions, and five have made the playoffs. The last one (Cleveland), is still in a fight for the WC. The Dodgers were projected to be the top team in the NL and ended up that way. Same with the Astros and Yankees in the AL. Three teams were projected to win less than 70 (Orioles, Tigers, Marlins) and they have not disappointed. None of those three teams have even hit 60. Atlanta really outplayed their projections and will finish 10+ of their projection. The Red Sox saw the opposite and will likely fall 10+ games short of their 95 win preseason number.
The Mets were projected to finish 85-77 and tie with the Cardinals for the WC. The Mets are on pace for that exact record (though we hope better), but the WC threshold ended up being higher.
Most of that is due to Atlanta significantly exceeding expectations, as mentioned above. They were projected to win 84 games but have won 97 and counting (though I suggest they are done counting!). I guess some of that is due to them outplaying their Pythagorean record, and some due to the bounceback from Josh Donaldson and some of their pitchers exceeding expectations. Had Atlanta played to expectations, Washington (89 wins projected) would have won the division and the Brewers and Mets would be playing Monday. Stupid Braves.
What does this tell us? Nothing we didn't know. The projections aren't dispositive, but they're a pretty good indication of what you can expect. And though it's certainly possible to play significantly above or below expectations, it's not so likely that one can simply disregard the projections. So my suggestion to Brodie and anyone else monitoring the off-season: If the projections say you will win 85 games, don't stop improving the team.
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