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The Run Differential Standings - 2019

Frayed Knot Oct 01 2019 06:34 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 01 2019 09:13 PM

I have no real point with this, I just stumbled across them while looking up something else and wanted to see how the standing would look if done this way. NL DODGERS +273 NATIONALS +149 BRAVES +112 CARDINALS +102 CUBS +97 DIAMONDBACKS +70 METS +54 BREWERS +3 REDS -10 PHILLIES -20 GIANTS -95 PADRES -107 ROCKIES -123 PIRATES -153 MARLINS -193 AL HOUSTON +280 YANKEES +204 TWINS +185 ATHLETICS +165 RAYS +113 INDIANS +112 RED SOX +73 RANGERS -68 ANGELS -99 BLUE JAYS -102 WHITE SOX -124 MARINERS -135 ROYALS -178 ORIOLES -252 TIGERS -333 So what stands out? - that one team in each league are clear stand-outs - that the Brewers were a should-have-been sub-.500 team when they went on a 21-7 finish (most of it without their best player) - the lack of a middle class in the AL. 13 of the 15 teams were better than +100 or worse than -99. Only 7 of the 15 in the NL were outside those posts - and then the bottom of the AL; two teams, nearly three, with a worse run-diff than the Marlins, and five of the bottom seven

Centerfield Oct 01 2019 06:51 PM Re: The Run Differential Standings - 2019

My takeaway. The Mets are a considerable distance from the NL elite. They need to improve significantly this offseason. Unfortunately there is a good chance they will start 2020 in the same place or slightly worse.

Frayed Knot Oct 01 2019 08:17 PM Re: The Run Differential Standings - 2019

NYM = 7th best in NL in RS, 0.10 R/G better than league average 10th in NL in RA although, oddly, there they were also better than league average, by 0.16

Ceetar Oct 02 2019 08:04 AM Re: The Run Differential Standings - 2019

Second half Mets: 8th. 4th in NL. Dodgers 142 Nationals 131 Cardinals 105 Mets 84 Braves 65 Just runs allowed? Second in NL Cards 298 Cleve 313 Houston 315 Oakland 317 Mets 320 Dodgers and Cardinals only won two more games, Nationals won three.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 02 2019 08:19 AM Re: The Run Differential Standings - 2019

=Ceetar post_id=23508 time=1570025070 user_id=102] Second half Mets:

The Second Half Mets were pretty damn good.



The Mets were 43-51 at the all star break. After the break, they won another 43 games. But against only 25 losses. They needed 26 less games to win their next 43 games. After the break, the Mets played at a 102 win rate, over a full season. So how much do you wanna discount the first half?

Centerfield Oct 02 2019 08:22 AM Re: The Run Differential Standings - 2019

It looks like he changed his signature. Wonder why.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 02 2019 08:24 AM Re: The Run Differential Standings - 2019

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=23509 time=1570025990 user_id=68] =Ceetar post_id=23508 time=1570025070 user_id=102] Second half Mets:

The Second Half Mets were pretty damn good.



The Mets were 43-51 at the all star break. After the break, they won another 43 games. But against only 25 losses. They needed 26 less games to win their next 43 games. After the break, the Mets played at a 102 win rate, over a full season. So how much do you wanna discount the first half?


Slight mistake. I gave youse data through July 16. But the ASG was played on July 9. Still. Plus, I like my breakdown because of the symmetry -- first 43 wins versus the next 43 wins.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 02 2019 08:31 AM Re: The Run Differential Standings - 2019

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=23511 time=1570026287 user_id=68] =batmagadanleadoff post_id=23509 time=1570025990 user_id=68] =Ceetar post_id=23508 time=1570025070 user_id=102] Second half Mets:

The Second Half Mets were pretty damn good.



The Mets were 43-51 at the all star break. After the break, they won another 43 games. But against only 25 losses. They needed 26 less games to win their next 43 games. After the break, the Mets played at a 102 win rate, over a full season. So how much do you wanna discount the first half?


Slight mistake. I gave youse data through July 16. But the ASG was played on July 9. Still. Plus, I like my breakdown because of the symmetry -- first 43 wins versus the next 43 wins.


OK. Here's the accurate July 9 ASG split: 40-50 at the break, 46-26 after. That's a post ASG clip of 104-58 over a full season.

Ceetar Oct 02 2019 08:36 AM Re: The Run Differential Standings - 2019

I just did last 81 games for my RS/RA breakdown. But how much do I wanna discount the first half? I dunno. None? Some? The second half was closer to projections. Does that make it closer to true talent? There's some ball nonsense to account for too. deGrom had some struggles, but perhaps talent prevailed? Wheeler too, though that likely doesn't matter for 2020 projections.

Frayed Knot Oct 02 2019 08:48 AM Re: The Run Differential Standings - 2019

This would apply to both halves, not just the second, but at a +54 for the season you can see what a huge chunk those 37 extra runs allowed just by Diaz & Familia* represent. +54 suddenly becomes +91 and who knows how many more wins depending on which games those runs disappear from. * over and above what was reasonable to expect from them as per the 'Back of the Pen' thread