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Zack’s Qualifying Answer

G-Fafif Nov 14 2019 03:29 PM

“No.” Wheeler rejects Mets' QO. Brodie says they'll keep talking to him in free agent mode.

kcmets Nov 14 2019 03:45 PM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Our old friend and colleague on Rotoworld: [BLOCKQUOTE]Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports that the Yankees have "checked in" on free agent hurler Zack Wheeler. It's not a secret that the Yankees are in the market for major upgrades to their starting rotation this offseason, as they have already been linked to Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg among others. The most likely scenario, is that the Yankees wind up with a couple of starting pitchers. SOURCE: Bryan Hoch on Twitter Nov 13, 2019, 8:10 PM ET[/BLOCKQUOTE]

Johnny Lunchbucket Nov 14 2019 03:53 PM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Wheels is going to get dirty stinking rich this winter. I'd really like him back

batmagadanleadoff Nov 14 2019 04:17 PM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Wheels is going to get dirty stinking rich this winter. I'd really like him back Incredible, but true. What's even more incredible is that Wheeler wasn't even one of the NL's top 20 pitchers this past season. Must be a dearth of FA pitchers. Jon Matlack is rolling over in his grave even though he's still alive.

LWFS Nov 14 2019 10:29 PM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Wheels is going to get dirty stinking rich this winter. I'd really like him back Incredible, but true. What's even more incredible is that Wheeler wasn't even one of the NL's top 20 pitchers this past season. Must be a dearth of FA pitchers. Jon Matlack is rolling over in his grave even though he's still alive. Even more incredible: he actually WAS one of the Major Leagues' top 20 pitchers by ERA+, FIP, and fWAR (and top-20 in the NL by bWAR both years). By most measures, actually. Over the last two years, actually? He's pushing for top 10. He's second to deGrom in the majors in suppressing HR rate over that time. Zack Wheeler is, like, good. He's just been playing for a team that minimizes how good he looks to people who don't know what to look for.

batmagadanleadoff Nov 15 2019 04:46 AM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Wheels is going to get dirty stinking rich this winter. I'd really like him back Incredible, but true. What's even more incredible is that Wheeler wasn't even one of the NL's top 20 pitchers this past season. Must be a dearth of FA pitchers. Jon Matlack is rolling over in his grave even though he's still alive. Even more incredible: he actually WAS one of the Major Leagues' top 20 pitchers by ERA+, FIP, and fWAR (and top-20 in the NL by bWAR both years). By most measures, actually. Over the last two years, actually? He's pushing for top 10. He's second to deGrom in the majors in suppressing HR rate over that time. Zack Wheeler is, like, good. He's just been playing for a team that minimizes how good he looks to people who don't know what to look for. Lazy me. Here's what I did. I linked to BBRef's 2019 NL pitching leaders page (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2019-pitching-leaders.shtml) and expanded all the leaderboards, giving me a top 10 list of all the pitching categories. Then I pulled up Wheeler's 2019 stats on a separate tab and skimmed a couple of the key top 10 categories -- (ERA+, WHIP and WAR) Wheeler didn't make the top 10 in any of those, and eyeballing his season stats, I "figgered" that he wouldn't crack the top 20 either. Jeez, his 2019 ERA+ is 102. It's lazy because creating that Fangraphs list that you referenced is easier and way more accurate. I still stand on Jon Matlack rolling over in his grave, though. How much money would Matlack's third full season be worth today on the open FA market -- the sublime Cy Young caliber '74 campaign? Zack Wheeler is, like, good. He's just been playing for a team that minimizes how good he looks to people who don't know what to look for. Ouch.

Johnny Lunchbucket Nov 15 2019 05:18 AM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

There's lots of guys who would compare unfavorably to peak Matlack. Most similar by age rating at 24 was Tommy John, bunch of other era contempoaries and one Dan Casey: http://www.springer66.net/2018/07/22/the-mighty-casey/

G-Fafif Nov 15 2019 05:44 AM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Last six starts this year produced a 1.80 ERA, 6.2 IP per start and about a strikeout per inning. Over the final three, picked up some of whatever it is that plagues deGrom when it comes to his teammates supporting him, each time producing an outing that was deep, sharp and a loss. Watching Hot Stove on SNY last night the consensus was Zack is gone and the Mets will seek moderately priced dregs to take his place.

smg58 Nov 15 2019 07:33 AM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Wheeler was 28th in the NL in ERA+. The guy who was #1 is a free agent, too. And that's before we even get to Cole and Strasburg. Take the draft pick and upgrade.

LWFS Nov 15 2019 11:28 AM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Zack Wheeler is, like, good. He's just been playing for a team that minimizes how good he looks to people who don't know what to look for. Ouch. Didn't mean that to come off quite so bitchy. Peak Matlack was damn fine pitcherin'. Wheeler was 28th in the NL in ERA+. The guy who was #1 is a free agent, too. And that's before we even get to Cole and Strasburg. Take the draft pick and upgrade. ERA+ ain't exactly defense-independent. And Wheeler is "tops" (actual #1) in how poorly he was served by the team's defense among 2019 NL starters (worse than Jake or any of the other Mets, too), as measured by RA9def. It ain't as big an upgrade pool as you think.

Frayed Knot Nov 15 2019 12:56 PM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Yeah, an upgrade won't be easy (or cheap) and compensation draft picks ain't what they used to be.

Edgy MD Nov 15 2019 03:16 PM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Sometimes, when you looze a guy, the instinct is to replace him at the least, or you break your brain and your bank trying to upgrade. And that's one option. But if it's easier to plug the hole as best you can and try to improve somewheres else, that's a-valid too. Sometimes when you get into replacement mode, you go backing up the truck for Kevin Appier.

LWFS Nov 15 2019 05:49 PM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Post-peak Kevin Appier warn't too piqued, either. Now, what we got for 'im... well, I'm glad our team helped in its own, indirect way in funding affordable housing. If we're not signing Wheeler, and we're not in for-REAL-for-real on Cole/Strassy, the best way to improve that fifth starting slot this offseason might just be to trade Dom Smith for Manny Margot and sign Grandal.

Ceetar Nov 15 2019 06:39 PM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Ryu's a guy to keep an eye on. It's not a one-one replacement from 2018-2019 anyway. Thor could be better, or worse. Matz too. I mean, we do already have Stroman over Vargas.

Edgy MD Nov 15 2019 07:24 PM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

=LWFS post_id=26638 time=1573865397 user_id=84] Post-peak Kevin Appier warn't too piqued, either. Now, what we got for 'im... well, I'm glad our team helped in its own, indirect way in funding affordable housing. If we're not signing Wheeler, and we're not in for-REAL-for-real on Cole/Strassy, the best way to improve that fifth starting slot this offseason might just be to trade Dom Smith for Manny Margot and sign Grandal.

You hurt me.



I agree it's not a one-to-one replacement. I tried to suggest the same above.

Fman99 Nov 15 2019 08:58 PM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Edgy MD wrote: Kevin Appier. You watch your god damned mouth.

Centerfield Nov 16 2019 11:11 AM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

=G-Fafif post_id=26593 time=1573821863 user_id=55] Last six starts this year produced a 1.80 ERA, 6.2 IP per start and about a strikeout per inning. Over the final three, picked up some of whatever it is that plagues deGrom when it comes to his teammates supporting him, each time producing an outing that was deep, sharp and a loss. Watching Hot Stove on SNY last night the consensus was Zack is gone and the Mets will seek moderately priced dregs to take his place.

Disappointed how resigned everyone is to just accept this.



Another season of mediocrity. Yay.

G-Fafif Nov 16 2019 11:54 AM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Michael Baumann of the Ringer not high on Zack: It might be a little harsh to compare Wheeler—like [Darren] Dreifort a former top-10 pick who was hurt or bad or both for much of his mid-20s—to the doomed Dodger right-hander. Since returning to the majors in 2017, Wheeler has posted good peripherals and been fairly reliable, making at least 29 starts in each of the past two seasons. But he's also posted a worse ERA+ in that time than any of the seven pitchers listed above him here. Wheeler also has a mild case of James Paxton's Disease, in which people confuse lack of a big league track record for youth, when Wheeler is less than a year younger than Odorizzi or Bumgarner, and doesn't have anything like Paxton's peak performance. https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/11/11/20958388/mlb-free-agency-rankings-tiers-primer-gerrit-cole-anthony-rendon-stephen-strasburg

smg58 Nov 16 2019 12:52 PM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

=Centerfield post_id=26669 time=1573927902 user_id=65]Disappointed how resigned everyone is to just accept this. Another season of mediocrity. Yay.

Hopefully the Mets realize that the same team minus Wheeler doesn't put them anywhere near the Braves or Nationals, and probably won't keep them above the Phillies. And there's no centerfielder they could add who would make that big of an impact. Nor is there a big enough upgrade at catcher that would make up for folding at pitcher. I'm not going to comment on the team's intentions until they play out. If the Mets sit on their asses, I'll be as mad as anybody else. But it's November 16.

Edgy MD Nov 16 2019 01:04 PM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

I think he's a worthy buy at about four years, $60 million, and he's about to get four years, $90 million.

Johnny Lunchbucket Nov 16 2019 04:01 PM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

I've seen Wheeler pitch a lot and can confirm he's very good and will make the team he signs with better, including the 2020 Mets

Centerfield Nov 18 2019 11:36 AM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

I'm with Lunchie. I think Wheeler's pretty good. And still has a lot of upside. The good thing about the starting pitching market is that there are plenty of options out there for anyone willing to spend. If any one pitcher gets "overpaid", there are plenty of other options. If all the options get "overpaid", then no one is overpaid. But I don't see that happening. If last season is any indication, the big guys will probably sign late, and then there will be bargains available as we approach spring training. Strassburg and Cole probably sign in January. Then Wheeler and Bumgarner. Then guys like Ryu and Keuchel as we approach spring training. I'm guessing the Mets won't make a serious run at any of these guys. But who knows. I honestly have no idea what they are going to do this offseason.

LWFS Nov 18 2019 11:48 AM Re: Zack’s Qualifying Answer

Honestly, I would wager, like, a finger or two BVW spending most of his browsing time in the Wacha/Nova/Smyly aisle of the store.