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Hernandez or Ordonez?

batmagadanleadoff Apr 06 2020 12:17 PM

https://theathletic.com/1723690/2020/04/06/the-red-seats-pub-whos-the-best-defender-in-mets-history/ Who's the best defender in Mets history?

Benjamin Grimm Apr 06 2020 12:31 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

Keith

kcmets Apr 06 2020 12:35 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

17 > 0

G-Fafif Apr 06 2020 01:03 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

Would've loved to have seen the two of them weave a few 6-3s together.

Ceetar Apr 06 2020 01:37 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

might be Beltran.

Theoldmole Apr 06 2020 04:05 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

I'll vote for Rey because someone has to, and because I always wanted to be a shortstop. And the best fielding shortstop gotta be the best fielder.

MFS62 Apr 06 2020 06:13 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

Rey, but Keith was a VERY close second. Later

smg58 Apr 06 2020 06:24 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

Rey. His 99 was as good a defensive season as anybody has ever had.

nymr83 Apr 06 2020 06:39 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

its gotta be ReyRey, the positional value is too strong to overcome

Edgy MD Apr 06 2020 06:55 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

I'd probably go with Beltran. But I'm not sure the defensive metrics available have yet been able to capture what Hernandez did. For that matter, I don't think they capture what Grote did.

batmagadanleadoff Apr 06 2020 07:01 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

=smg58 post_id=34794 time=1586219087 user_id=62] Rey. His 99 was as good a defensive season as anybody has ever had.

Anybody at any position? Not even close. At least going by defensive WAR. And shortstop Mark Belanger's fourth best season going by dWAR is about as good as Rey's 1999.

Frayed Knot Apr 06 2020 07:13 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

Even giving weight to positional importance, Rey's 'defensive prime' was just too short to compare for overall impact. And not just that his career was a fraction to that of Keith's but even within that short-ish career he was only a top-notch glove-man for part of it. To me this question can be seen as somewhat analogous to Gooden-v-Seaver, because while one could make the argument that Seaver never had a season as stunning as DG-'85, neither did Gooden and the totality of GTS's career makes it a no-brainer for me. So, yeah, for one season I might take RO-'99 over any single KH year (talking strictly defense of course), but best NYM defender ever? ... I'm looking towards Sag Harbor (although not at the moment as far as this year is concerned).

Edgy MD Apr 06 2020 07:14 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=34799 time=1586221286 user_id=68] =smg58 post_id=34794 time=1586219087 user_id=62] Rey. His 99 was as good a defensive season as anybody has ever had.

Anybody at any position? Not even close. At least going by defensive WAR. And shortstop Mark Belanger's fourth best season going by dWAR is about as good as Rey's 1999.

Yeah, but dWAR is ... well, it certainly doesn't do Hernandez any favors.

Edgy MD Apr 06 2020 07:20 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

In fact, this is what MLB data guys can be doing with their downtime — calibrating tracking software to record data from archival game footage.

batmagadanleadoff Apr 07 2020 06:42 AM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/dwar-to-end-all-wars

smg58 Apr 07 2020 08:14 AM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

dWAR is an interesting stat. I'm not sure how accurate it is or what it's based on, but it doesn't look unreasonable. I was too young to see Belanger in his prime, so I can't really compare him to Ozzie. Ozzie was fun to watch, although he only topped Rey's 4.0 dWAR in 1999 once. (He got over 3 many times, though.) Rey also made too many errors in his other seasons, which cut into his defensive value despite the highlight reel plays.

LWFS Apr 07 2020 09:49 AM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

Frayed Knot wrote: Even giving weight to positional importance, Rey's 'defensive prime' was just too short to compare for overall impact. This is my problem with considering Beltran. He was really only fully healthy-- and at full defensive capability-- for three years with us. Ordonez had more than just the one great year. He had 1999 PLUS about four other very good seasons by dWAR/runs saved/error count/whatever metrics you favor. I LOVE Keith-- I've never owned an action figure of any other player-- but there's no way he's worth more than a middle-infielder of Rey's caliber (consistency issues inclusive).

Ceetar Apr 07 2020 10:11 AM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

Beltran had more PA than Hernandez or Ordonez. Sure, we caught the tail end of his defensive prime, and he probably hurt his counting defensive type numbers with playing through injuries in '09+. But he was really really good. He might be the best centerfielder of that first decade of this millenium. Ordonez was probably the best, strictly tools and prowess. He probably benefits, statistically from a 'rising boat' situation where others around him were good too. And we still don't really evaluate first base defense properly. There's a lot going on there and it's hard to quantify.

batmagadanleadoff Apr 07 2020 10:19 AM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

There's more than one way to look at this. Shortstop might be the more valuable position, but Keith revolutionized his position and might be the best defensive first baseman in the history of baseball. Keith played first base better than Rey played shortstop

Edgy MD Apr 07 2020 12:46 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

Frayed Knot wrote: Even giving weight to positional importance, Rey's 'defensive prime' was just too short to compare for overall impact. This is my problem with considering Beltran. He was really only fully healthy-- and at full defensive capability-- for three years with us. But peak-period outfielders are worth a lot, because 95% of the balls a shortstop doesn't get to are singles. (I made up that number. I guess that one in 20 might be that flare over the thirdbaseman's head that drops for a double.). What outfielders don't get to are more likely to drop for extra bases — dubbles, tribbles, and ho-hos.

Edgy MD Apr 07 2020 12:53 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=34826 time=1586276389 user_id=68] There's more than one way to look at this. Shortstop might be the more valuable position, but Keith revolutionized his position and might be the best defensive first baseman in the history of baseball. Keith played first base better than Rey played shortstop

Sure, but Rey would've likely played first base better than Keith played shortstop, for what that's worth.



Keith did what he could do better than anybody, but Rey could do more.



Looking at it another way — if you have a pretty decent hitting guy — hitting at the 2019 National League average of .758 OPS — you'll be happy to take that from a shortstop, even if he's an average defender. Even if he's a below-average defender by shortstop standards, a manager may be willing to grin and bear it.



But if it's your firstbaseman OPS-ing at .758, he had better be a defensive magician. And even if he's the top firstbaseman in the league, you're probably still making calls to your GM asking him to get you some help.

batmagadanleadoff Apr 07 2020 04:23 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

Edgy MD wrote: There's more than one way to look at this. Shortstop might be the more valuable position, but Keith revolutionized his position and might be the best defensive first baseman in the history of baseball. Keith played first base better than Rey played shortstop Sure, but Rey would've likely played first base better than Keith played shortstop, for what that's worth. Keith did what he could do better than anybody, but Rey could do more. I dunno. That's just speculatoon. Also, it's like saying that Jerry Grote would've played centerfield better than Brandon Nimmo. And besides, Rey's right-handed. He wouldn't have been able to do half the things Keith did at all, let alone better than. And as to "Rey could do more", that's already baked in because SS carries more defensive value. Keith won 11 Gold Gloves. Rey might've been more valuable, but Keith was better.

smg58 Apr 07 2020 04:49 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

Edgy MD wrote: Frayed Knot wrote: Even giving weight to positional importance, Rey's 'defensive prime' was just too short to compare for overall impact. This is my problem with considering Beltran. He was really only fully healthy-- and at full defensive capability-- for three years with us. But peak-period outfielders are worth a lot, because 95% of the balls a shortstop doesn't get to are singles. (I made up that number. I guess that one in 20 might be that flare over the thirdbaseman's head that drops for a double.). What outfielders don't get to are more likely to drop for extra bases — dubbles, tribbles, and ho-hos. Beltran broke 2 dWAR twice, once with the Royals and once with us. Juan Lagares broke 3 dWAR in each of his first two seasons. Which I suppose brings us back to the debate between longevity and one or two brilliant seasons.

Edgy MD Apr 07 2020 04:59 PM Re: Hernandez or Ordonez?

Yeah, and I agree that peak Lagares was better. And while my doubts about dWAR (and its baseball-reference vs. fangraphs distinctions) continue, I think the total-career-value is what we're asking here, no?