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Back End Blues

Edgy MD Nov 15 2020 10:02 PM

Recent starting pitcher names the Mets have been reported to be in contact with include Charlie Morton and Jake Odorizzi. Now, I know that sounds like Wacha-Porcello 2.0, but that's only because that's exactly what it sounds like. Whether the team is looking at them as potential 4-5 starters or potential 8-9 competitors, I dunno. Probably just gauging the marketplace. There's an argument for both, but obviously not the strongest of arguments. As a 37-year-old with local connections (both Connecticut and New Jersey), Morton is very much the type of guy that would take a his final lap with the Mets under the last regime. In fact, if the Mets sign him, I'm just gonna call him Jake Catalanotto until somebody corrects me.

bmfc1 Nov 16 2020 05:51 AM Re: Back End Blues

Without doing a deep-dive into the numbers, I would consider Morton and Odorizzi fine SPs, Odorizzi less so because he was injured so many damn times last season (he was on my fantasy roster). I agree that they are "back end" but under the old regime they'd be 2 or 3 and here they are 4 or 5. 1. Jake 2. ??? 3. Marcus 4. Peterson 5. Morton. ETA Unknown: Noah.

Edgy MD Nov 16 2020 06:48 AM Re: Back End Blues

For what it's worth, Syndergaard is tweeting highly sexualized video of him all greased up throwing from the mound.

Lefty Specialist Nov 16 2020 08:41 AM Re: Back End Blues

Yeah, a lot of pitchers coming back from TJ feel good and throw good in small doses early on. Messing with the timetable is dangerous even if you're a sexy beast like Noah. Patience, Thor.

Centerfield Nov 16 2020 09:17 AM Re: Back End Blues

I don't know much about Odorizzi. But Morton can be good on a short term deal. The problem with Porcello and Wacha is not that they were back end guys, but that we lost a front end guy, and tried to replace him with a back end guy. And even for back end guys, they were pretty back end. Porcello had a 5.52 ERA, the highest qualified ERA of any starter, and Wacha had a degenerative shoulder condition. Porcello ended up with a 5.64 ERA, and Wacha missed time with, you guessed it, shoulder pain.

A Boy Named Seo Nov 16 2020 09:34 AM Re: Back End Blues

I'm fine with Charlie Morton, maybe less so with Odorizzi, who seemed to break free of mediocrity for one year in 2019. But the main thing is I don't want is just 5 dudes. I've been crushing on the Dodger model for years of having 7 or 8 legit starters and, of course, all of them get used over the course of a season, even a short one. I just hate the scramble whenever one of our dudes inevitably goes down and we're like "Walker Lockett? Gsellman even know we know that doesn't really work? Or maybe move Lugo again?" ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

MFS62 Nov 16 2020 12:05 PM Re: Back End Blues

There is a brand of deodorant very popular outside the US called Odorono. If the Mets signed Jake that's what I would be calling him until ... forever. Later

Lefty Specialist Nov 16 2020 02:38 PM Re: Back End Blues

There is a brand of deodorant very popular outside the US called Odorono. If the Mets signed Jake that's what I would be calling him until ... forever. Later https://www.rollingstone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/rs-144227-0fc834d1d9b44323660aa6c0e26293c62da48460.jpg?w=300>

Edgy MD Nov 16 2020 03:18 PM Re: Back End Blues

Porky and Wacha were originally slotted in as 5th-to-7th options, of course. But the team did more than lose Wheeler. Syndergaard's elbow blew, Stroman's commitment blew, and Matz' pitching blew. Attrition is part of the game, and that's why you build redundancy on the back. Are OD and Morty better options now than Wacha and Porcello were last year? I confess that I do not know. Obviously, the key is to keep your soldiers on the field, and have a redundancy of backups when you can't. It's rough to recruit particularly good veterans for slots that may not be available, because better veterans get MLB contracts, so you have to carry them in the bullpen if a slot doesn't open. I think a key is also building redundancy through the up-and-comers, and lacking a AAA team, it was a really shit year to be a guy on the bubble. Hopefully, if there is AAA ball this year, in addition to veterans with big league and minor league contracts, they could call on Kilome, Szapucki, Jurado (already on the 40), and/or Harol Gonzalez in addition to guys passing through, and those guys won't be coming in cold.

Centerfield Nov 16 2020 08:04 PM Re: Back End Blues

Replacing your second best pitcher with a guy who slots in at #5 is a problem not to be glossed over. Then expecting your 86 win team to improve. It was a joke. Redundancy is way, way down the list.

Edgy MD Nov 16 2020 09:10 PM Re: Back End Blues

I didn't gloss anything over. I thought I stated things pretty factually.

Johnny Lunchbucket Nov 16 2020 09:27 PM Re: Back End Blues

Yeah the mistake the Mets made wasn't in getting either Wacha nor Porky, but letting Wheeler go in the first place. Had they kept Wheeler they probably sign just one of them, tho.

Centerfield Nov 17 2020 10:10 AM Re: Back End Blues

Edgy MD wrote: I didn't gloss anything over. I thought I stated things pretty factually. Sure you did. Edgy MD wrote: Porky and Wacha were originally slotted in as 5th-to-7th options, of course. But the team did more than lose Wheeler. Syndergaard's elbow blew, Stroman's commitment blew, and Matz' pitching blew. Attrition is part of the game, and that's why you build redundancy on the back. Are OD and Morty better options now than Wacha and Porcello were last year? I confess that I do not know. Obviously, the key is to keep your soldiers on the field, and have a redundancy of backups when you can't. It's rough to recruit particularly good veterans for slots that may not be available, because better veterans get MLB contracts, so you have to carry them in the bullpen if a slot doesn't open. When you state that staying healthy is the "key", and that redundancy would address that, you are absolutely glossing over the biggest problem with the mindset of the front office. In order, of importance, the problems with signing Porcello/Wacha were: 1. An 86 win team should be looking to improve upon the season before, not to tread water, or to get worse. 2. Allowing your second best starter to walk to a division rival, and not looking to replace him with an equal or better pitcher, but instead looking to fill in the back end of the rotation, is highly problematic. A distant third is: 3. Filling in the back end with specifically Porcello (last among qualified starters in ERA) and Wacha (degenerative shoulder condition). And then, finally after that is: 4. Lack of redundancy

Edgy MD Nov 17 2020 10:18 AM Re: Back End Blues

This is tiresome. I didn't mention anything about Wheeler initially, because he wasn't the subject. I don't consider these players to be Wheeler's replacement or replacements. You do. That's fine. I considered them guys in the mix to pitch as needed. I don't really think in terms of replacements. There's always a call for more pitching. Picking the right ones and getting the best out of them is key. I'm certainly not going to defend those two as the right ones, or argue that not signing Wheeler was the right or wrong move. That's another discussion. I'm just trying to (a) pass on that the team is looking at these two players (Odorizzi and Morton), and (b) starting a conversation on what to look for when adding extra pitchers so that they get more R.A. Dickey and less James Baldwin or whatever. I'm not looking to defend the Wilpon management. I wouldn't have signed either one of those guys. I think good scouting gets better guys than them for minor league money, and good development gets David Peterson in there from day one. And good deployment suggests not dickering for years about giving Seth Lugo is a chance to start. Is there any appeal in Odorizzi or Morton for the right money? Other folks seem more intrigued than I am. Get mad at them, Glossy.

Centerfield Nov 17 2020 11:27 AM Re: Back End Blues

I agree it's tiresome. But you claim that you're just stating facts, or that you're just passing on that the team has interest in these guys, but it's there in black and white that you have another thesis. Edgy MD wrote: Recent starting pitcher names the Mets have been reported to be in contact with include Charlie Morton and Jake Odorizzi. Now, I know that sounds like Wacha-Porcello 2.0, but that's only because that's exactly what it sounds like. My answer to this, is that Morton/Odorizzi is nothing like Wacha/Porcello. Looking to replace your stud #2 with retreads, is in no way shape or form close to the same situation as looking to round out the back of your rotation with retreads (and Morton and Odorizzi are not even re-treads). Alderson has very publicly expressed his interest in Bauer. Whether you want him or not (I don't) this is a different world than winter 2019. Edgy MD wrote: As a 37-year-old with local connections (both Connecticut and New Jersey), Morton is very much the type of guy that would take a his final lap with the Mets under the last regime. In fact, if the Mets sign him, I'm just gonna call him Jake Catalanotto until somebody corrects me. And here is the part where you suggest "New regime? Same as the old regime." Again. Not the case. 37 year old Charlie Morton as a "round out the rotation" guy, versus "Let's slot him behind deGrom and hope no one gets hurt all year" isn't at all close. Now, the new regime hasn't actually done anything yet, so it's hard to know for sure. But if the early returns are any indication, the new regime is only going to resemble the old regime in that they have the same uniform. Nothing else. I agree that it makes no sense to argue about this. Especially now with new ownership in place. But understand that your posts carry a very explicit opinion, whether you intend so or not.

Edgy MD Nov 17 2020 11:45 AM Re: Back End Blues

My answer to this, is that Morton/Odorizzi is nothing like Wacha/Porcello. That's fine. You disagree. I didn't bring up Wheeler. You did. That's not glossing over. It just wasn't the subject. Edgy MD wrote: And here is the part where you suggest "New regime? Same as the old regime." This is the part that is tiresome. I can totally speak for myself. Type for myself too.

Frayed Knot Nov 17 2020 02:14 PM Re: Back End Blues Edited 4 time(s), most recently on Nov 17 2020 03:05 PM

I have no idea what you two are even arguing about so I'll stay out of that end of things, but here's how I saw the whole Wachacello/Wheeler situation. The Stroman trade the previous August was to make him Wheeler's replacement, or at least act as Wheeler insurance. Whether they had already decided not to pursue Wheeler by that point is speculation. Wachacello were acquired to cover the 5th/6th starter/longman role. Neither had been good in '19 but both were better in '18 and considerably so prior to that, and both still young enough to where a bounce back season from either/or was a reasonable possibility. As it turned out, Porcello pretty much repeated 2019 in 2020; Wacha fared worse. But the biggest problem wasn't them but the fact that we got zero starts out of Thor, zero out of Stroman, and zero GOOD starts out of Matz (OK, maybe ONE), all of which left nearly 1/3 of the starts (19 of 60) to the two imports who, in effect, became not the 5/6 starters but the #s 3 and 4 behind JdG and Peterson.

Edgy MD Nov 17 2020 02:28 PM Re: Back End Blues

Yeah, that's pretty much the facts.

Centerfield Nov 17 2020 03:46 PM Re: Back End Blues

My frustration lies in this. Edgy MD wrote: Recent starting pitcher names the Mets have been reported to be in contact with include Charlie Morton and Jake Odorizzi. Now, I know that sounds like Wacha-Porcello 2.0, but that's only because that's exactly what it sounds like. This is an opinion. Unequivocally so. You start by saying that the Mets have been in contact with Morton and Odorizzi, but the second part of your statement is your assertion that this is exactly like Wacha/Porcello. I disagree with your opinion. I brought up Wheeler to demonstrate why those two situations are different. You can talk about where they slot in, or redundancy, but I disagree that these two situations are anything alike, because one regime didn't even try to bring in a front line guy, and the next one is openly courting one. And when you disregard this difference, I think it's glossing over. And that's all fine. This is regular discussion. The next part is where it gets frustrating. Edgy MD wrote: I didn't gloss anything over. I thought I stated things pretty factually. No. You stated your opinion. Your opinion may differ from mine. But that doesn't make it a fact. You may have also stated a lot of facts, but none of them have any affect on the opinion you presented. That statement remains, an opinion. Edgy MD wrote: I'm just trying to (a) pass on that the team is looking at these two players (Odorizzi and Morton), and (b) starting a conversation on what to look for when adding extra pitchers so that they get more R.A. Dickey and less James Baldwin or whatever. You did those things, and you offered your opinion that Wacha/Porcello 2019 is exactly like Odorizzi/Morton now. Agree with my opinion, or don't. I don't really care. But don't pretend that you didn't offer an opinion. It's needlessly aggravating. It's right there for you to read. I don't know why you pretend like you've given an objective statement when I've quoted your subjective opinion several times.

Edgy MD Nov 17 2020 03:52 PM Re: Back End Blues

I'm just gonna yawn now.

Centerfield Nov 17 2020 04:00 PM Re: Back End Blues

It's a simple concept. If you state an opinion and I challenge it, you can either stand by it, agree with my counterpoint, or say "hey, that's not what I meant." Pretending like you didn't offer an opinion at all is pointless, when it's right there for everyone to see, only serves to piss off the person you are trying to have a discussion with. It's positively Trumpian how you're pretending that you didn't offer an opinion.

Centerfield Nov 17 2020 04:07 PM Re: Back End Blues

Consider this. Remember when Reagan got shot? It's exactly like the Kennedy assassination. Well, Reagan survived, and Kennedy died, so no, I don't think they're alike at all. They were both presidents, and there were shooters, and there were cars involved. Yes, but I think you are glossing over the fact that one of them died, and the other survived. I'm not glossing over anything. I'm just stating facts. Yes, you did. One of the biggest consequences in the Kennedy assassination was that he died. Do you not see that? I didn't bring up death. You did. Yes, because you can't compare the two without bringing up death. And because of that, these are two very different situations. This is tiresome

Edgy MD Nov 17 2020 04:10 PM Re: Back End Blues

You need to get back in court. You're losing it.

Centerfield Nov 17 2020 04:20 PM Re: Back End Blues

Frayed Knot wrote: I have no idea what you two are even arguing about so I'll stay out of that end of things, but here's how I saw the whole Wachacello/Wheeler situation. The Stroman trade the previous August was to make him Wheeler's replacement, or at least act as Wheeler insurance. Whether they had already decided not to pursue Wheeler by that point is speculation. Agree that this is how Wilpon/Brodie saw this. And by doing so, it demonstrates the fallacy of their approach. At that point, the Mets were under .500. And Stroman is not as good as Wheeler. So the expectation should have been that, all other things equal, that the pitching in 2020 would have been worse than the first half 2019 Mets. A team that was under .500. Frayed Knot wrote: Wachacello were acquired to cover the 5th/6th starter/longman role. Neither had been good in '19 but both were better in '18 and considerably so prior to that, and both still young enough to where a bounce back season from either/or was a reasonable possibility. As it turned out, Porcello pretty much repeated 2019 in 2020; Wacha fared worse. For Porcello, possibly. But the bounce had to be pretty significant. Even in his good years, he was a "lots of baserunners" guy. For Wacha, youth is/was negated by a degenerative shoulder condition. Frayed Knot wrote: But the biggest problem wasn't them but the fact that we got zero starts out of Thor, zero out of Stroman, and zero GOOD starts out of Matz (OK, maybe ONE), all of which left nearly 1/3 of the starts (19 of 60) to the two imports who, in effect, became not the 5/6 starters but the #s 3 and 4 behind JdG and Peterson. Agree and disagree. Injuries/opt outs were a big part of it. But if the front office has the right approach the prior winter, you can offset expected bumps in the road with proper preparation. Had they added a front line starter, and invested smarter with the back end guys, they easily make this 8 team playoff field.

Frayed Knot Nov 17 2020 05:25 PM Re: Back End Blues

Coming into the 2020 season, Stroman & Wheeler had virtually identical career ERAs and WHIPs, Stroman had 14 more career starts, 100 more career IPs, was signed for the coming year, was a year younger, was arguably coming off the better 2019 season (.74 ER/G less) and doesn't have TJ surgery in his past. A declarative statement about how one was demonstrably better than the other is tough to back up. Expecting 90 starts -- or what worked out to a pro-rated 35 or so -- from three pitchers and getting instead a total of six horrid ones is a bit more than "bumps in the road" or something that can be overcome if only they had nabbed the 'right' #5/6 starters. Back of the rotation guys are back of the rotation guys for a reason and those slots are unlikely to be grabbed by guys with 'Solid Starter' stamped on their foreheads, particularly when they're not even being promised a starting job. It's great if and when your back-enders do fill in ably when others go down but usually the way you know who those guys are is to wait until the end of that season and say, 'Yeah, that's the kind of guy we needed'. And then the next season that guy might just go back to barely hanging on while someone else will be the new Mr. Right-on-time. And my point here isn't to defend Wachacello; they were hired as back end of the rotation filler who then unexpectedly were needed to start one of every three games during a fucked-up season and didn't come close to matching what one assumes we would have gotten from the two they replaced. The one bright side was that some of the games they did start mean that day's starter gave up runs at barely more than half the rate on days when their starts replaced a Matz start. So, y'know, there's that.

Centerfield Nov 17 2020 08:11 PM Re: Back End Blues

Wheeler made the jump after fully recovering from TJ surgery. The performance has been sustained over three seasons. He is, across most metrics, better than Stroman. In any case, even if they are comparable, the point remains the same. It is problematic for a team that was 5 games under .500 to seek status quo rather than, you know, improve. As for this year, losing two starters absolutely qualifies as bumps in the road. It's foolish to not expect such injuries. The Braves lost two starters. So did the Yankees. The Astros lost their ace. All of them overcame such hurdles and made the playoffs anyway. And I didn't say they would have made the playoffs just by “nabbing the right 5/6 guys”. Though it certainly would have helped. I said if they signed a front line starter, and chosen better on the back end, they make the playoffs. If they have Zack Wheeler and a passable back end guy, they play in October.