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GE Electoral College Bowl

Lefty Specialist Oct 30 2020 02:46 PM Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Oct 30 2020 02:56 PM

Decision 2020 edition. I'm your host, Allen Ludden. https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-RSEDmjx4jCc/VVzgrfm80yI/AAAAAAAAFNM/l_zGUMrdoqw/s640/CollegeBowl.png> Predict the electoral vote. Totals must add up to 538. For optional credit, list your surprise state(s) if any. Winner gets this fabulous 1972 Gremlin and a years' supply of Gaines Dog Food. http://bestride.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Lets-Make-a-Deal-AMC-Gremlin.jpg> In case of a tie, Price is Right rules apply, you must be closest without going over. So choose carefully. Your country may depend on it. But hey, no pressure. You can go to 270towin.com to game out your scenarios. Nervous Nellies: What you say here will have absolutely no impact on the race. You won't give it a kinnahurra or jinx it. Put away that rabbit's foot, or better still, let the rabbit keep it.

Lefty Specialist Oct 30 2020 02:49 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

I'm predicting 321-217 Biden. North Carolina and Georgia see the light. Texas, while close doesn't quite get there. Florida disappoints again, but Arizona goes blue.

MFS62 Oct 30 2020 03:07 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

A little Candide here, "The best of all possible worlds": Biden 287-251 South Carolina and Kentucky turn Blue, also casting out their [CROSSOUT]demons[/CROSSOUT] Senators. Later

Fman99 Oct 30 2020 09:36 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

Giving Biden 353 votes and the orange stain 185. I think Grandpa Joe wins FL, OH, and PA, as well as NC and AZ. Aside from Texas I think it's a good day for the good guys.

Chad ochoseis Oct 30 2020 10:19 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

340-198 for Joe. Among the contested states, he flips Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, and also wins the swinging single electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska. The surprise is that he doesn't win in Florida, where Trump's strategy of saying the word "socialism" a lot resonates with just enough of the Cuban and Venezuelan immigrant communities that he manages to hold on there. And he squeaks by in Iowa and Texas. As I posted to Facebook just a minute or two ago, I had to take a back road through a Trumptastic part of Ohio today and saw a whole lot of Biden signs, which leads me to believe that he might just get 40% of the vote south of I-80, which is enough to carry the state if turnout is strong in the very Democratic areas north of 80. In the Senate, Collins, Ernst, Gardner, and Tillis are toast, which gets the D team to 50. I think Graham squeaks by in South Carolina, but one of the two Georgia seats goes Democratic, and the Democrats pull an upset in Montana, where they've got a popular governor running about even in the polls.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 31 2020 01:19 AM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

Chad ochoseis wrote: In the Senate, Collins, Ernst, Gardner, and Tillis are toast, which gets the D team to 50. I think Graham squeaks by in South Carolina, but one of the two Georgia seats goes Democratic, and the Democrats pull an upset in Montana, where they've got a popular governor running about even in the polls. And McSally? (Which, if the Dems flip Arizona, as things are looking, will cancel out the GOP's likely flip of Alabama.) _____________ The New York Times has a cool statistical election feature by Nate Cohn, which includes a daily analysis of all the polls with live updates. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden#todays-polls-as-we-get-them-october-30 In one section, Cohn predicts that if all the polling leads translate perfectly to actual Election Day results, (they won't), Biden wins the election 357 electoral votes to 181. If, on the other hand, the state polls are as wrong this year as they were in 2016, Biden still wins, by an electoral vote margin of 335 to 203.

seawolf17 Oct 31 2020 05:06 AM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

323-215 Biden. Florida, Texas, Iowa, and Michigan all fall for Emperor Crazytweets.

ashie62 Oct 31 2020 06:40 AM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

295-243 Biden. Florida North Carolina AZ Red Georgia PA Blue

Chad ochoseis Oct 31 2020 07:15 AM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=49419 time=1604128751 user_id=68] And McSally? (Which, if the Dems flip Arizona, as things are looking, will cancel out the GOP's likely flip of Alabama.)

Oops. Yes, of course.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 31 2020 06:32 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

I've been using this interacive electoral map -- https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/oct/30/build-your-own-us-election-result-plot-a-win-for-biden-or-trump - to play around with various election scenarios. I've checked out several interactive electoral map web sites and this one is my favorite. I think it's the clearest and easiest to use. The site also includes average polling for each state. Anyways, just to play around, in one version of my electoral map, I gave every state to Biden only where he was polling at least four points ahead of Trump. This method was very Trump-friendly in that I awarded Trump ever state where he was ahead in the polls or trailing Biden by no more than 3.9 points. So, for example, I awarded NC and its 15 electoral votes to Trump even though Biden is polling ahead of Trump there by 2.7 points: Biden needs to be four points ahead of Trump to get a state with this method. Under this scenario, Biden wins the election with 280 electoral votes, even though Trump wins Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Ohio.

Edgy MD Nov 01 2020 08:47 AM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

As with betting baseball outcomes, I've got too much of my heart on the line to get in on predictions. I know what I want, and that will have to do.

Johnny Lunchbucket Nov 01 2020 08:53 AM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

Yeah I'm not gonna tempt fate this way. I really hope my team wins is as far as I wanna go

Frayed Knot Nov 01 2020 10:37 AM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

For me it's more along the lines of being afraid that these projections are going to make me too optimistic going into Tuesday which in turn will make it that much tougher to handle if things don't work out that way. So I'm going to have to stop reading you guys for the next two days. I don't even know yet how closely I'm going to follow come Tuesday night. In some years I've munched popcorn and followed every minute like it was a NYM WS game. Four years ago, on the other hand, I treated Election Night similar to the way some sports fans do with WS or SB games; while I was sure I wanted to see Team A lose, not being a Hillary fan I also wasn't in the mood to watch Team B celebrate their win. As a result I skipped much of the night (don't remember what I did instead) and was probably saner for it. So while I'm sure I'll watch, I just haven't decided on how much. Mainly what I want to see is loud, spontaneous parties breaking out on streets all over the country as the results start to go against Agent Orange. Trump himself will still try to pretend they don't exist, but the more there are the hander it will be for the saner parts of his backers to ignore. btw, nice thread title ... especially for the few hundred people in the country (like me) who are old enough to remember GE College Bowl

LWFS Nov 01 2020 10:13 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

300-238. PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ go blue... TX and FL and GA not quite. Disappointing Senate results result in slim 51-49 Dem control.

TransMonk Nov 02 2020 06:35 AM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

The problem is that Trump will cheat. I am 100% sure Biden would win a legitimate contest. I have his floor at 280 EC votes. That includes WI, MI, MN, NV and PA. But PA is likely to be contested no matter the margin. Like was said in another thread, if FL, NC or AZ is called on Tuesday, I think it's over. When all the dust settles, I think Joe will have around 336 EC votes and will win the popular vote by at least double what Hillary did. I think the Dems will also flip the Senate in far less dramatic fashion. Whether they have control at 51 or 55 makes very little difference.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 02 2020 06:49 AM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

The real difference between 51 and 55 seats is that 55 gives you more wiggle room if someone dies or resigns. And it would allow Biden more freedom to promote someone from the Senate to his cabinet, if he so chooses.

Lefty Specialist Nov 02 2020 07:44 AM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

At 51 you won't be able to get rid of the filibuster, which means nothing else will get done. So numbers matter.

TransMonk Nov 02 2020 07:55 AM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

True. I shouldn't have said it makes little difference. I think 51 is probable and 55 is possible.

nymr83 Nov 02 2020 11:14 AM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

Benjamin Grimm wrote: The real difference between 51 and 55 seats is that 55 gives you more wiggle room if someone dies or resigns. And it would allow Biden more freedom to promote someone from the Senate to his cabinet, if he so chooses. Taking someone out of the senate would be insane - there are plenty of people out there the president can turn to instead. Look at the Republicans with Sessions - they pulled him from what looked like the safest possible seat - but then the guy who ran to replace him turned out to be a pedophile and lost the seat.

batmagadanleadoff Nov 02 2020 12:24 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 02 2020 01:27 PM

Lefty Specialist wrote: At 51 you won't be able to get rid of the filibuster, which means nothing else will get done. So numbers matter. It's not just the filibuster, although eliminating it is the key for everything that could follow. I presume that a Dem administration is going to have an extremely ambitious, probably even controversial, agenda. And for that, they're going to need as big a Senate margin as they can get, especially with Manchin and possibly, some new purple or even red state Senators in the caucus.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 02 2020 12:29 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

Are 60 votes required to get rid of the fillibuster?

batmagadanleadoff Nov 02 2020 12:32 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 02 2020 03:24 PM

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Are 60 votes required to get rid of the fillibuster? I'm pretty sure that all is needed is a simple majority. Otherwise, the GOP wouldn't have been able to eliminate it for SCOTUS nominations when Gorsuch was nominated. Plus, with so much political commentary out there advising if not pleading with the Dems to kill the filibuster, if not outright predicting that the Dems will eliminate the filbuster should they come into power, it has to be a simple majority vote that's needed because no one expects the Dems to get 60 senators.

batmagadanleadoff Nov 02 2020 03:07 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 02 2020 03:24 PM

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Are 60 votes required to get rid of the fillibuster? I'm pretty sure that all is needed is a simple majority. Otherwise, the GOP wouldn't have been able to eliminate it for SCOTUS nominations when Gorsuch was nominated. Plus, with so much political commentary out there advising if not pleading with the Dems to kill the filibuster, if not outright predicting that the Dems will eliminate the filbuster should they come into power, it has to be a simple majority vote that's needed because no one expects the Dems to get 60 senators. ______________ Here we go: Eliminating the filibuster is simple. All it takes to eliminate the filibuster is a simple majority vote in the Senate — and this can be done at any time. Let's assume that it's 2021 and Democrats have the majority. They introduce a big package of democracy reforms, like DC statehood and expanding voting rights. Mitch McConnell, the self-proclaimed “grim reaper” of progressive legislation, then initiates a filibuster. Democrats can then hold a vote, and with just 50 votes eliminate the filibuster and prevent McConnell from vetoing the legislation. All about the filibuster: https://indivisible.org/resource/congress-101-filibuster

A Boy Named Seo Nov 02 2020 03:18 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

I wish I were as optimistic as you guys. Tomorrow has me terrified.

Chad ochoseis Nov 02 2020 04:01 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

I'm simultaneously optimistic and terrified. It's like it's 5-3 in the bottom of the 9th and Benitez is coming in for the save.

MFS62 Nov 02 2020 04:42 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

Chad ochoseis wrote: I'm simultaneously optimistic and terrified. It's like it's 5-3 in the bottom of the 9th and Benitez is coming in for the save. Perfect analogy. Later

Fman99 Nov 02 2020 05:43 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

Chad ochoseis wrote: I'm simultaneously optimistic and terrified. It's like it's 5-3 in the bottom of the 9th and Benitez is coming in for the save. Yeah this got me as well.

ashie62 Nov 02 2020 06:52 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

Very true. It is also happening in real time.

Edgy MD Nov 02 2020 07:43 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

The only way that metaphor works for me is if it's 5-3 in the ninth and the city is on fire, and the firehouses can't be unlocked unless the Mets win. And Benitez is 77 years old. And the umpires have been appointed by the Braves.

Lefty Specialist Nov 03 2020 04:31 AM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

.....and Angel Hernandez as the Attorney General.

Lefty Specialist Nov 13 2020 02:36 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

=LWFS post_id=49540 time=1604294034 user_id=84] 300-238. PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ go blue... TX and FL and GA not quite. Disappointing Senate results result in slim 51-49 Dem control.

With all the votes counted we have a winner! Enjoy your Gremlin and the dog food! See you in four years!

LWFS Nov 15 2020 11:21 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

Lefty Specialist wrote: =LWFS post_id=49540 time=1604294034 user_id=84] 300-238. PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ go blue... TX and FL and GA not quite. Disappointing Senate results result in slim 51-49 Dem control. With all the votes counted we have a winner! Enjoy your Gremlin and the dog food! See you in four years!

I WON THE ELECTION

Johnny Lunchbucket Nov 16 2020 12:20 PM Re: GE Electoral College Bowl

lolollllool