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Reasons

Edgy MD Nov 01 2020 05:09 PM

One reason to be pessimistic about the presidential race, and one reason to be optimistic, in each post. PESSIMISTIC: The guy campaigns like a mothafucka. OPTIMISTIC: People voted against Secretary Clinton because they hated her. President Trump definitely leads in hate column this time around.

Lefty Specialist Nov 01 2020 05:38 PM Re: Reasons

Pessimistic: A lot of people who won't admit they're voting for Trump will vote for Trump. Optimistic: Covid, Covid, Covid. The biggest test a president could have and he flunked it. There's a million other reasons but that's the one that'll resonate with the 65% of Americans who are not his cult members.

Frayed Knot Nov 01 2020 06:00 PM Re: Reasons

PESSIMISTIC: Trump's appeal is largely built on his cult of personality so his voters from last time are at least as likely to be encouraged to double-down on him because of the events and scandals over the last four years as they are to be turned away by them. OPTIMISTIC: His opposition should be plenty energized this time which, given his razor-thin margin last time, should be enough to flip things even without massive defections.

Chad ochoseis Nov 01 2020 06:28 PM Re: Reasons

PESSIMISTIC: There will be more challenges to votes this year than ever before, and most swing state Secretaries of State, as well as the currently constituted Supreme Court, are in the tank for Trump. OPTIMISTIC: 2016 polling was an aberration, which is why it was such big news. Usually, good quality polls are excellent predictors of outcomes.

batmagadanleadoff Nov 01 2020 06:45 PM Re: Reasons Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 01 2020 10:36 PM

Edgy MD wrote: PESSIMISTIC: The guy campaigns like a mothafucka. I always wonder, just how much persuading goes on at these rallies? I liken them to going to a Mets/Yankees game where, for the most part, fans go for the experience, to see something live and to cheer for the team they already support -- the game itself having no impact on their rooting interest, it having already been established .

Edgy MD Nov 01 2020 06:56 PM Re: Reasons

Probably not a lot of folks in the house are persuaded who aren't already on board, but the appearances garner news coverage, and the attendees go home invigorated, more inspired to vote, more inspired to advocate for others to vote, more inspired to maliciously intimidate opponents, etc. That's the way it's supposed to work, anyhow. I mean, the personal appearances are there for a reason.

nymr83 Nov 01 2020 07:17 PM Re: Reasons

PESSIMISTIC: The guy campaigns like a mothafucka. eh, he riles up his base better than many, but is that enough? OPTIMISTIC: People voted against Secretary Clinton because they hated her. President Trump definitely leads in hate column this time around. yeah, that. It is entirely possible he beat one of the few people he could beat in 2016 and his luck in drawing a weak opponent has run out. he has now drawn Joe "generic Democrat" Biden, and that is all it is going to take. Pessimistic: A lot of people who won't admit they're voting for Trump will vote for Trump. I agree, but i think that number just means you can expect a 'polling error' to be more likely in his favor like last time, not that you should expect a historically large polling error. given where the pools are right now the only candidate to overcome a larger polling deficit was Harry Truman in 1948 - and there was only one pollster back then! Optimistic: Covid, Covid, Covid. The biggest test a president could have and he flunked it. There's a million other reasons but that's the one that'll resonate with the 65% of Americans who are not his cult members. without covid, the economic argument for Trump was a strong one, amongst others, and he probably could have succeeded by carrying most of the people he carried 4 years ago and made up for his losses by bringing on a bunch of voters who saw that, despite the protestations of the liberal media, the world did not fall apart. But oh, yeah, covid... PESSIMISTIC: Trump's appeal is largely built on his cult of personality so his voters from last time are at least as likely to be encouraged to double-down on him because of the events and scandals over the last four years as they are to be turned away by them. 49% of the country isnt part of that cult though. maybe 20% are? he must have lost some votes from covid and some votes from his opponent not being Hillary, do you really think he GAINED enough to offset that? OPTIMISTIC: His opposition should be plenty energized this time which, given his razor-thin margin last time, should be enough to flip things even without massive defections. eh. i'm not sure who is more energized. PESSIMISTIC: There will be more challenges to votes this year than ever before, and most swing state Secretaries of State, as well as the currently constituted Supreme Court, are in the tank for Trump. flipside would be there could be more voter fraud than ever before or there could be higher turnout from people who dont usually give a shit and arent usualy convinced to waste time at the polls but were convinced that a piece of mail is a lot less hassle. OPTIMISTIC: 2016 polling was an aberration, which is why it was such big news. Usually, good quality polls are excellent predictors of outcomes. the 2016 polls weren't an aberration at all, rather most people's understanding of polls were, and are, the issue. Wisconsin was probably the only swing state where the final outcome of the election wasn't within 3 points of the final state level polling. the fact that this swung things from Clinton +2 to Trump +1 made people lose their minds and blame the polls, but the polls werent that far off. If Clinton has instead gone from +2 to +6 the polls would have been WORSE - but nobody would have noticed. a "2016 size" polling error in Trump's favor this year would still produce a comfortable victory for Biden, probably even a victory outside the "reach of litigation"

MFS62 Nov 02 2020 05:31 AM Re: Reasons

Pessimistic: Reading many analysts who say tRump voters don't trust anyone, so they don't respond accurately to polls and are under-reported. Also, they will be cheating all the way up through the Supreme Court. Optimistic: The analysts who say Biden is performing better in districts that didn't vote for Hilary. Later

Johnny Lunchbucket Nov 02 2020 05:50 AM Re: Reasons

Optimistic: The social unrest in cities across the U.S. this summer remind you of nothing more than the Rodney King situation which also occurred in an election year and helped to establish a national mood that knocked out a 1-term R incumbent Pessimistic: The USA is the worst country in the world and we're about to prove it

TransMonk Nov 02 2020 06:30 AM Re: Reasons

Pessimistic: Trump has said he will cheat and there is no reason to think that he won't. He will likely be helped by state legislatures and courts. The fact that the Dems need a blowout just to win is a HUGE problem. Optimistic: The people finally have another chance to repudiate this piece of shit. Anyone who thought institutions and norms would save us can now see that the people need to take care of this mess. The media couldn't save us. Career officials couldn't save us. Senate Republicans couldn't save us. House Democrats couldn't save us. Mueller couldn't save us. Tell all books couldn't save us. Impeachment couldn't save us. This guy should have been taken down a dozen different ways by now. Fuck it, we'll do it ourselves.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 02 2020 06:47 AM Re: Reasons

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Pessimistic: The USA is the worst country in the world and we're about to prove it That's not actually true, but it certainly does feel that way sometimes. That's why I've done serious investigation into leaving which, unfortunately, is much easier said than done, especially in my current situation.

whippoorwill Nov 02 2020 07:04 AM Re: Reasons

Our school district has moved to remote learning for two weeks for COVID issues...our superintendent is a woman. OIP btw is a pizza place This is a quote on our newspapers facebook page in response. [BLOCKQUOTE]So you make those who test positive stay home, you dont shut everyone out. what is wrong with this woman? besides that she should be home cooking and cleaning instead of making important decisions. Close OIP and stop OIP from packing the place every day. Gotta stop the fear/panic stuff....Stop listening to liberal cry babies and listen to the science.....cover your face, watch what you touch, etc....GET OVER IT! TRUMP 2020...... IVANKA 2024[/BLOCKQUOTE] This sirs, is what I deal with around here, and why I am wildly pessimistic.

Fman99 Nov 02 2020 07:25 AM Re: Reasons

Ah, Pennsyltucky. Sounds nice there. Except, you know, for all of the dipshits.

whippoorwill Nov 02 2020 07:34 AM Re: Reasons

Yep Enjoy the view, ignore the residents

Edgy MD Nov 02 2020 08:23 AM Re: Reasons

Edgy MD wrote: PESSIMISTIC: The guy campaigns like a mothafucka. I always wonder, just how much persuading goes on at these rallies? I liken them to going to a Mets/Yankees game where, for the most part, fans go for the experience, to see something live and to cheer for the team they already support -- the game itself having no impact on their rooting interest, it having already been established . The Hootie & the Blowfish Principle states that there's a lot more chance of you buying an album by a band who took the time to come out and play your no-name provincial college. I think it's similarly likely you're much more likely to vote for a candidate who showed up in your town and allowed you to smell his farts.

Benjamin Grimm Nov 02 2020 08:25 AM Re: Reasons

I think that whole fart-smelling thing is what got William Howard Taft elected.

kcmets Nov 02 2020 09:05 AM Re: Reasons

Put me in Camp Optimistic -- I think a large portion of the historic early votes are in protest and not praise of the current assclown. Also put me in Sub-Camp USA-is-the-NOT-the-worst-country-in-the-world.

Frayed Knot Nov 02 2020 10:02 AM Re: Reasons

=kcmets post_id=49568 time=1604333121 user_id=53] Also put me in Sub-Camp USA-is-the-NOT-the-worst-country-in-the-world.

It isn't of course.

It's just that sometimes there's a big gap between its ideals/promises vs its actions.

Edgy MD Nov 02 2020 07:34 PM Re: Reasons

PESSIMISTIC: President Trump has encouraged voters to attempt to double vote, which could lead to some real fucking up of the numbers in many states with the obvious benefit to the scoundrel of making no count seem credible, kicking shit into the courts. OPTIMISTIC: The House of Representatives is not in his party's control.

Edgy MD Nov 03 2020 09:04 AM Re: Reasons

PESSIMISTIC: The president will sow distrust and amplify ambiguity to undermine public trust in any vote that doesn't favor him, and I have reason to believe his supporters are the better-armed portion of the public, if things spill over into the streets. OPTIMISTIC: They can have the streets. Most of us are staying home, anyhow. I have reason to believe the so-called suckers and losers in our military leadership will know where their duty lies in the event of a civil insurrection.

Edgy MD Nov 03 2020 04:53 PM Re: Reasons

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Pessimistic: The USA is the worst country in the world and we're about to prove it Hey, North Korea, hold my beer.

whippoorwill Nov 03 2020 05:09 PM Re: Reasons

Pessimistic: republicans will win in my area Optimistic: practically everyone I spoke to today was a Republican and they didn't have satanic horns I.e: although I totally disagreed with them, collectively we remembered that we are all still neighbors and still love the same little town and each other I hope the hell my guys win though

Johnny Lunchbucket Nov 03 2020 06:30 PM Re: Reasons

Edgy MD wrote: Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Pessimistic: The USA is the worst country in the world and we're about to prove it Hey, North Korea, hold my beer. Ya but, if them folks could vote would they reelect Kim?

ashie62 Nov 03 2020 06:34 PM Re: Reasons

Pessistic: The Florida rallies Optimistic: Not sure

Edgy MD Nov 03 2020 07:07 PM Re: Reasons

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Edgy MD wrote: Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Pessimistic: The USA is the worst country in the world and we're about to prove it Hey, North Korea, hold my beer. Ya but, if them folks could vote would they reelect Kim? Hey, Democratic Republic of the Congo! Watch out!! Here comes Americastan!

Edgy MD Nov 03 2020 08:12 PM Re: Reasons

PESSIMISTIC: These Trump freaks are now emboldened by knowing it can be done. OPTIMISTIC: In 2016, the Clinton campaign tried to re-draw the election map, while Steve Bannon only focused on battleground states. The Biden campaign should know better.

Fman99 Nov 04 2020 06:31 PM Re: Reasons

As these stories develop I get more and more optimistic. The shitty lawsuits don't seem to have much in the way of legal ground, and even if they manage to get a few hundred or thousand votes thrown out in AZ or PA or GA, I don't know that it'll be enough to matter. Curious to see what updates come out at 9 PM EST from Arizona.