Master Index of Archived Threads
Bet Tracker 2006
| Johnny Dickshot Apr 22 2006 09:24 AM |
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In the "worries" thread a few weeks ago Bret and Johnny Dickshot had the following exchange:
Here I will track the result of this bet through the year. If you guys have other bets going on you should do this too. Thru games of April 21: Runs Scored: 82 (League Average: 84) Runs Allowed: 57 (League Average 84)
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| Bret Sabermetric Apr 22 2006 09:48 AM |
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I'm not too worried yet. The Mets are (I think even their most ardent fans would agree here) playing better than their final record this year, and more importantly, cold-weather teams playing lots of home games early on always score more runs as the weather heats up. So the two run deficit doesn't bother me too much.
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| Nymr83 Apr 22 2006 09:54 AM |
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agreed that they are playing better than their lofty record.
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| Bret Sabermetric Apr 22 2006 10:00 AM |
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James ran a study years ago showing how runs scored (or ERA or some damned thing) goes up something like 20% from April to August and then dips again in September. It's a truism, as far as I know, in stat-head circles.
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| Nymr83 Apr 22 2006 01:58 PM |
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the hitters tire as hte season goes on, the pitchers don't since they pitch every 5th day, the hitters then crush septmeber call-ups to increase hitting in september.
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| Bret Sabermetric Apr 22 2006 02:21 PM Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Apr 22 2006 02:27 PM |
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Except hitting doesn't increase in September, it declines. I'm talking empirical findings here, which do not come out of one's ass. Anyway, the big development I'm pretty confidently waiting on is the mets' inevitable decline, as they face beTter teams, and play on the road more than half their games from here on out. When they play the better teams on the road, they'll find playing .667 ball isnt so easy. So far their Pythagorean figures are fairly steady: according to Pythagorus, they should have won about 10.2 games and lost about 4.8, which is just about what they've done on the field so far.
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| Nymr83 Apr 22 2006 02:23 PM |
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i read what you said backwards, my point is still the same, do these studies link scoring to TEMPERATURE or just to the calendar?
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| Bret Sabermetric Apr 22 2006 02:32 PM |
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Considering that the lowest scoring takes place in April and September, and the highest in July and August, I'd say temperature. Probably if you could break it down by game time temperature (I'm sure someone has done the work), it would be even more direct a connection.
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| Nymr83 Apr 28 2006 07:12 PM |
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Proposition:
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| Elster88 Apr 29 2006 04:02 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Apr 29 2006 04:03 PM |
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Sounds like a good bet. I'd prefer not to mess with signature lines, but a beer sounds good. If we never happen to meet at a game we can just send the $5 over the web.
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| Elster88 Apr 29 2006 04:03 PM |
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I'd like to reiterate though, that Kaz's performance has nothing to do with my stance on booing.
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| Nymr83 Apr 29 2006 05:10 PM |
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noted, but i'll take the bet all the same.
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| Elster88 Apr 30 2006 09:26 AM |
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Just to bust balls, but this bet is showing a lack of guts on your part, or a lack of faith in Matsui-suckage. If you're so sure he sucks, why not go with last year's line? Or split the difference? .272/.331/.396 is not a half bad line. Anyways, I'm not trying to weasel my way out of the bet. It's only $5, and I think he will better that line. But if you're betting that a guy sucks, I'd go with lower numbers. Maybe you are finally realizing that Kaz can hit? Just busting balls here. No need to RedLight me.
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| Nymr83 Apr 30 2006 09:54 AM |
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its a terrible line considering what he was signed to do. you can't just lower the standards for him as he lowers his play. his career line is .265/.320/.380, which sucks, and there'd be little point in my betting that because he could go .270/.325/.360 and "beat" the target line while still sucking. (just for reference his career line in Japan was .309/.362/.486, now thats some nice numbers, and thats what we paid for)
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| Elster88 Apr 30 2006 10:15 AM |
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The concept of "what he was signed for" is another that is fairly silly. But I've argued it elsewhere and don't feel like getting into it.
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| Nymr83 May 22 2006 11:58 AM |
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just to avoid this getting archived i'll give a quick update-
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| duan May 22 2006 12:02 PM |
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in related 2b men bets
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| Johnny Dickshot May 22 2006 12:54 PM |
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Updating the Dickshot-Sabermetric bet above. through May 21:
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| Nymr83 May 22 2006 02:29 PM |
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stupid interleague games screw up the average scored/allowed
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| Edgy MD Jun 11 2006 11:06 AM |
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This thread lives too.
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| duan Jul 11 2006 05:07 AM indeed it does |
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greetings all - i'll post some pics of the wedding later .....
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| Johnny Dickshot Jul 29 2006 07:16 PM |
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Wiggy broke his hand today after getting hit by a Shawn Chacon pitch in the MFY drubbing, looks like he'll be out for a long while.
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| Elster88 Jul 31 2006 07:25 AM |
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Shocker.
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| Edgy MD Sep 11 2006 01:58 PM |
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Ty Wigginton has an OPS of .792, but is sitting at 374 at-bats and 409 plate appearances.
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| Edgy MD Sep 30 2006 09:03 PM |
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Wiggy is at .833. How many PA did he need to qualify?
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| Edgy MD Sep 30 2006 09:06 PM |
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Kaz Matsui needs a golden finish to his season to carry this bet for Elster. He's at .269 / .313 / .370 // .683.
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| Johnny Dickshot Sep 30 2006 09:11 PM |
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450abs/475 pas! He's got 436 ABs and ~468 PAs... he'll miss qualifying by a game or three.
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