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Baseball's Most Important Plays

Johnny Lunchbucket Feb 24 2021 08:46 AM

This is a fun article that looks at the biggest regular season moment for every team as measured by "Championship Win Probability Added" -- or plays that have had the biggest positive effect on each team's chances of winning the World Series. I'll spoil it for you and reveal Bobby Thompson and Bucky Dent are near the top of course but before you click over, can you guess the Mets' biggest play ever? The time and place didn't surprise me but the hero did. http://www.highheatstats.com/2021/02/theres-a-long-drive-the-biggest-regular-season-play-for-every-franchise/

batmagadanleadoff Feb 24 2021 09:08 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Feb 24 2021 09:10 AM

So before I peek, did the player's team have to actually win the WS to qualify? Or did the play in question have to favor a team that actually won the WS?

Edgy MD Feb 24 2021 09:10 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

By "biggest play ever," I'm guessing you mean in the positive sense. I'm going to go with, um, Mitchell scoring on the wild pitch.

batmagadanleadoff Feb 24 2021 09:12 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Edgy MD wrote: By "biggest play ever," I'm guessing you mean in the positive sense. I'm going to go with, um, Mitchell scoring on the wild pitch. I was thinking something like that. It'd have to be a play that happened while the Mets were behind, I figure, thus ruling out something like Swoboda's catch.

Edgy MD Feb 24 2021 09:13 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Oh, regular season ... uh ... the Ball off the Wall?

batmagadanleadoff Feb 24 2021 09:15 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

How about the ball off the wall play?

Edgy MD Feb 24 2021 09:15 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=56821 time=1614183309 user_id=68] How about the ball off the wall play?

Well, looks like you and I got the right intersection, but the wrong corner.

Johnny Lunchbucket Feb 24 2021 09:18 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

No they didn't have to win the world series, just the one play in the regular season that resulted in the largest percentage increase that they could win the world series. I also suspected the Ball on the wall play but wasn't precise enough. Look at the video-- and I'm shocked what a terrible center fielder Willie Stargell was. Geez Louise

Benjamin Grimm Feb 24 2021 09:20 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

How about a dark horse? Maybe Brad Clontz's wild pitch?

batmagadanleadoff Feb 24 2021 09:21 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: No they didn't have to win the world series, just the one play in the regular season that resulted in the largest percentage increase that they could win the world series. I also suspected the Ball on the wall play but wasn't precise enough. Look at the video-- and I'm shocked what a terrible center fielder Willie Stargell was. Geez Louise I didn't know Stargell played center. Or that he'd even be on the field for the ball off the wall play.

Edgy MD Feb 24 2021 09:22 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Yeah, I noticed that route toward Dyer's hit too. I don't know that Stargell ought to have caught that, but he was playing deep. Omar Moreno would have gotten there with time to camp under it 19 times out of 20.

batmagadanleadoff Feb 24 2021 09:25 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Dyer and the ball off the wall? Whaddayouse talkin' about?

Edgy MD Feb 24 2021 09:30 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

If you check the link, the biggest championship-improving play was in the same game as the BotW play, but it was Duffy Dyer's game-tying double in the ninth.

Johnny Lunchbucket Feb 24 2021 09:38 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Both on Dyer's hit where he takes a bad route and seems to slow up, and on Hodges hit where he starts tip-toeing and almost lets the ball by him. Stargell was the left fielder after all, now that I check, but the guy who didn't make either play

smg58 Feb 24 2021 09:51 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: No they didn't have to win the world series, just the one play in the regular season that resulted in the largest percentage increase that they could win the world series. I also suspected the Ball on the wall play but wasn't precise enough. Look at the video-- and I'm shocked what a terrible center fielder Willie Stargell was. Geez Louise I'm not old enough to remember Stargell as an outfielder. Given how slow he clearly was, I'm amazed he played out there at all. But I think he was playing left and they were pretty heavily shifted on that play. You have to figure 90% of outfielders at least get under that routinely.

Edgy MD Feb 24 2021 10:30 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Al Oliver, who would also transition to be primarily a firstbaseman in his thirties, started in center, but by the time the ninth had rolled around, Dave Augustine had entered the game as a pinch runner for firstbaseman Bob Robertson, with Oliver moving to his future home of first base. I can't speak to whether Augustine was any good, as he only appeared in 29 games over two seasons, but he did show off his cop-on-the-edge facial hair standing in whatever the Bradenton version of The Sadecki Spot is on the Topps '74 Rookie Outfielders card. https://vintagecardprices.com/pics/1869/1_150893.jpg>

MFS62 Feb 24 2021 11:09 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Why did the author think he had to use both cities on the #2 and #1 plays? The team resided in New York when Thompson hit the homer, not San Francisco. Same with #2, they were in LA in 1962, not Brooklyn. It made the article less professional to me, pedantic, not scholarly. Later

Johnny Lunchbucket Feb 24 2021 11:57 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

That's your takeaway?

batmagadanleadoff Feb 24 2021 12:06 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: That's your takeaway? Yeah, really. It's the highest cWPA for each team/franchise. That's supposed to detract from the article? If the author ranked them by city, there'd be no Mets entry. Or Yankees entry. Or Angels entry. And just one Chicago entry. You think that'd make the article better?

MFS62 Feb 24 2021 01:08 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: That's your takeaway? Yes it was. Bobby Thompson played for a team named the New York Giants when he hit that home run. Period. San Francisco wasn't even a gleam in Horace Stoneham's eye yet. It somehow lessened the work he did to research and write the article. This isn't the teams listing in baseball-reference.com where they list all the cities where a franchise has played. This was about specific dates and events. His editor should have picked that up. What should have been a "that was interesting" moment was turned into a WTF moment. And, obviously, I felt strongly about it or else I wouldn't have mentioned it. Later

seawolf17 Feb 24 2021 01:16 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

They're talking franchise history, which is why they say things like Montreal/Washington, too. You're really overthinking this, 62.

batmagadanleadoff Feb 24 2021 01:18 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

So how would you have liked for the events to have been organized? Because I'm not sure I understand you.

batmagadanleadoff Feb 24 2021 01:20 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

=MFS62 post_id=56851 time=1614197334 user_id=60]This isn't the teams listing in baseball-reference.com where they list all the cities where a franchise has played. This was about specific dates and events. His editor should have picked that up

So what? Willie Mays eventually passed Mel Ott on the Giants all-time HR list. Do you have a problem with that, too?

MFS62 Feb 24 2021 01:29 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=56854 time=1614198053 user_id=68] =MFS62 post_id=56851 time=1614197334 user_id=60]This isn't the teams listing in baseball-reference.com where they list all the cities where a franchise has played. This was about specific dates and events. His editor should have picked that up

So what? Willie Mays eventually passed Mel Ott on the Giants all-time HR list. Do you have a problem with that, too?


No.

But this different. RIF.

Later

batmagadanleadoff Feb 24 2021 01:35 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

=MFS62 post_id=56855 time=1614198554 user_id=60] =batmagadanleadoff post_id=56854 time=1614198053 user_id=68] =MFS62 post_id=56851 time=1614197334 user_id=60]This isn't the teams listing in baseball-reference.com where they list all the cities where a franchise has played. This was about specific dates and events. His editor should have picked that up

So what? Willie Mays eventually passed Mel Ott on the Giants all-time HR list. Do you have a problem with that, too?


No.

But this different. RIF.




How?

MFS62 Feb 24 2021 01:46 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=56856 time=1614198947 user_id=68] =MFS62 post_id=56855 time=1614198554 user_id=60] =batmagadanleadoff post_id=56854 time=1614198053 user_id=68] =MFS62 post_id=56851 time=1614197334 user_id=60]This isn't the teams listing in baseball-reference.com where they list all the cities where a franchise has played. This was about specific dates and events. His editor should have picked that up

So what? Willie Mays eventually passed Mel Ott on the Giants all-time HR list. Do you have a problem with that, too?


No.

But this different. RIF.




How?

Read my original post. This was specific to a date when the team represented only one city. The Mays/Ott example you gave was a franchise long, so both city names are appropriate in the story of Mays beating Ott's record. I would have had no problem with that.

And, why is it so important to you that you care whether it is important to me?



I'm working on being less condescending (you know, that's talking down to people). But you make that difficult.

Later

batmagadanleadoff Feb 24 2021 02:20 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

=MFS62 post_id=56858 time=1614199571 user_id=60] =batmagadanleadoff post_id=56856 time=1614198947 user_id=68] =MFS62 post_id=56855 time=1614198554 user_id=60] =batmagadanleadoff post_id=56854 time=1614198053 user_id=68] =MFS62 post_id=56851 time=1614197334 user_id=60]This isn't the teams listing in baseball-reference.com where they list all the cities where a franchise has played. This was about specific dates and events. His editor should have picked that up

So what? Willie Mays eventually passed Mel Ott on the Giants all-time HR list. Do you have a problem with that, too?


No.

But this different. RIF.




How?

Read my original post. This was specific to a date when the team represented only one city.

No. This is a rule or standard that you invented and now insist that the author follow, as if your way is the only logical way to present the data. And it's an absurd standard. Carl Hubbell's lifetime Giants wins aren't the franchise record because the Giants would move to SF?


=MFS62 post_id=56858 time=1614199571 user_id=60]The Mays/Ott example you gave was a franchise long, so both city names are appropriate in the story of Mays beating Ott's record. I would have had no problem with that.

No. This is a rule or standard that you invented and now insist that the author follow, as if your way is the only logical way to present the data. And it's an absurd standard. Carl Hubbell's lifetime Giants wins aren't the franchise record because the Giants would move to SF?




=MFS62 post_id=56858 time=1614199571 user_id=60]And, why is it so important to you that you care whether it is important to me?

I dunno. Why is it so important for you to tell us how you feel about that article in the first place? Maybe we could all keep our thoughts to ourselves. And then real soon, there'd be no forum.


=MFS62 post_id=56858 time=1614199571 user_id=60]I'm working on being less condescending (you know, that's talking down to people). But you make that difficult.




This is just a bullshit cop-out to get around the fact that you can't provide adequate or credible responses to my posts, which aren't condescending. So instead, you attack me personally. I'd be insulted if I was a newbie here instead of someone who's not only insulted here regularly, but then on top of that, is accused of being the insulter, himself. Martyr me. I sunk to new low depths all because I destroyed kc's stupid post.

G-Fafif Feb 24 2021 02:27 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

That is a fun article. Every one of those writeups gave me a little late-season every-pitch-matters rush. God, baseball can be great.

batmagadanleadoff Feb 24 2021 02:27 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Condescending? You could have avoided all of this snark had you simply answered this post: So how would you have liked for the events to have been organized? Because I'm not sure I understand you. But instead, you told me that "RIF" (reading is fundamental). And I'm condescending? Typical day for me at the CPF.

kcmets Feb 24 2021 02:27 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

I have no pony in this thread, but I'm brought up. I'm touched!

MFS62 Feb 24 2021 02:42 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Carl Hubbell's lifetime Giants wins aren't the franchise record because the Giants would move to SF? As I said, of course they are, because they are a franchise record, not a moment in time, where he could have been more specific. I can see how it was the most important moment in that franchise's history, but the way he wrote it just didn't look right. A New York Giant hit the home run, not one from San Francisco. If he had just labelled it "Giants" it would have been ok for me. My life as a business consultant was spent answering questions from executives asking "What's wrong with this picture?" and then telling them how to fix their operational problems. When I see something that doesn't appear correct, I still do that. Sorry if that bothered you. Later

Frayed Knot Feb 24 2021 03:33 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

If he had just labelled it "Giants" it would have been ok for me. It was labeled New York/San Francisco Giants which, to me, is the same thing as saying Giants except that it has the added benefit of removing any question as to whether they're talking about a franchise-long accomplishment vs a location-specific one.

MFS62 Feb 24 2021 03:50 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Frayed Knot wrote: If he had just labelled it "Giants" it would have been ok for me. It was labeled New York/San Francisco Giants which, to me, is the same thing as saying Giants except that it has the added benefit of removing any question as to whether they're talking about a franchise-long accomplishment vs a location-specific one. OK, good point. Later

Johnny Lunchbucket Feb 24 2021 03:54 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

=G-Fafif post_id=56863 time=1614202024 user_id=55] That is a fun article. Every one of those writeups gave me a little late-season every-pitch-matters rush. God, baseball can be great.

That's your takeaway?!?!!



Mine too.



A lot of thoughtful work, good use of data, links out to videos and boxscores, dramatic countdown presentation, some revelations suprising enough they can turn into quizzes, but instead devolves here into some ridiculous nitpicking over details that are not only negligible and nonsensical but also are somehow professed to supercede all the above.

Frayed Knot Feb 24 2021 04:09 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

It occurs to me that this sort of analysis--finding which individual plays most contributed to a victory--was pioneered right here on this very forum by ... metbot !!!!!

LWFS Feb 24 2021 11:50 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

That's YOUR takeaway???!? Lord love metbot.

ashie62 Feb 25 2021 05:34 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

1973 Amazin Mets!

batmagadanleadoff Feb 25 2021 08:01 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Feb 25 2021 08:06 AM

Carl Hubbell's lifetime Giants wins aren't the franchise record because the Giants would move to SF? As I said, of course they are, because they are a franchise record, not a moment in time, where he could have been more specific. I can see how it was the most important moment in that franchise's history, but the way he wrote it just didn't look right. A New York Giant hit the home run, not one from San Francisco. If he had just labelled it "Giants" it would have been ok for me. My life as a business consultant was spent answering questions from executives asking "What's wrong with this picture?" and then telling them how to fix their operational problems. When I see something that doesn't appear correct, I still do that. Sorry if that bothered you. I'm not bothered. I just still don't agree, and honest to god, I still don't even understand you. All of Carl Hubbell's Giants wins came while the Giants were in NY. There's no asterisk next to Juan Marichal's name on that list and there's no separate category declaring Marichal as the all-time leader of the Giants San Francisco pitching wins. The same with Thomson's cWPA even though that's a single game or single event record. But this works with single games, too. The Giants single game record for most strikeouts by a pitcher is 16 by Christy Mathewson, 1904. It's a franchise record, same as Thomson's cWPA, even though the Giants would move to SF after Mathewson's days. Whatever. Hey? But wasn't that a fun article?. I mean, for example, I didn't know anytihing about Tommy Davis's 1962 HR. And Davis would get traded to the Mets, too. He even picked up votes for MVP. As a Met!

batmagadanleadoff Feb 25 2021 08:06 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Frayed Knot wrote: If he had just labelled it "Giants" it would have been ok for me. It was labeled New York/San Francisco Giants which, to me, is the same thing as saying Giants except that it has the added benefit of removing any question as to whether they're talking about a franchise-long accomplishment vs a location-specific one. OK, good point. Why would there be such a question? Who would possibly think that, especially when the Giants event happened in NY and the Dodgers event happened in LA?

MFS62 Feb 25 2021 08:09 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

Yes, it was an interesting, and informative, article. It was like meeting and talking with Scarlett Johansson for fifteen minutes. I let the piece of spinach between her teeth bother me rather than enjoying the totality of the experience. :) Later

batmagadanleadoff Feb 25 2021 08:10 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

There was no spinach!

MFS62 Feb 25 2021 08:19 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=56892 time=1614265812 user_id=68] There was no spinach!

Oh STOP IT!

I was trying to be conciliatory and agree with you and you became aggressive again. It was a metaphor for letting a little thing bother me.



Later

batmagadanleadoff Feb 25 2021 08:21 AM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

=MFS62 post_id=56893 time=1614266368 user_id=60] =batmagadanleadoff post_id=56892 time=1614265812 user_id=68] There was no spinach!

Oh STOP IT!

I was trying to be conciliatory and agree with you and you became aggressive again. It was a metaphor for letting a little thing bother me.






You thought that was aggressive? I thought that was a harmless joke.

Edgy MD Feb 27 2021 12:32 PM Re: Baseball's Most Important Plays

One thing this piece really does, if indirectly, is underscore how much drama has been sucked out of the regular season by creating increasing levels of post-season play.