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Let My Love Open the Game

Edgy MD Mar 27 2021 05:11 PM

So, the Mets experimented with the opener today and the impact was immediate. By entering in the second inning, the would-have-been starting pitcher ended up getting the win despite a workday of only 4 2/3 innings. The shorter workdays along with the arbitrariness of the rules have served starting pitchers poorly. Unfortunately, credited wins and losses are still part of the calculus that goes into what they get paid. But among all the things they cannot control with regard to wins and losses, one key one is that they cannot earn a win until the fifth is complete, while they can earn a loss at any time, and the amount of typical use they get beyond that fifth is lessening (and in fact was a negative number today), the ration of opportunities to win against opportunities to lose goes steadily down, while it increases for relievers. It seems to me that, if an opener leaves after one or two innings with a lead, he should at least qualify for a hold (as long as these crude and arbitrary categories exist, anyhow). It was only a matter of time before this came to pass, I'd still like to just see them stop shortening pitchers' workdays seemingly every year.

Benjamin Grimm Mar 27 2021 05:36 PM Re: Let My Love Open the Game

I think the "win" should be assigned by the official scorer. That would not only help starters, but would remove the unfairness of the "vulture win" that goes to a reliever who blows a save but is still in the game when the go-ahead run scores.

Ceetar Mar 28 2021 08:16 AM Re: Let My Love Open the Game

I just think of pitchers as part of a team now, instead of single gunslingers. Avengers vs. Spider Man so to speak. Team based instead of single player. You can throw out an Opener if you want, that's the Rogue with sneak attack, and then you have Tank that takes most of the innings, and then you sprinkle in some other players, before going to the Wizard to end it with some fire power. I don't love the subjective stats in baseball as it is, but pitcher wins are already mostly meaningless and frequently subjective, so go for it. Assign the win to the pitcher who was "most pivotal". In a 10-1 blowout, that's going to be the bulk guy, but in a tight 2-1 game it might be the LOOGY that came in to a 2-out bases loaded situation and got the popup. Of course, a popup and a 400 foot home run steal are the same, it's never going to be perfect, but it's interesting. Hey I just thought myself into two post ideas. I wonder what how easy it is to query which pitcher was on the mound for the highest WPA event for each game.

Edgy MD Mar 28 2021 08:34 AM Re: Let My Love Open the Game

Pitcher wins are indeed largely meaningless and based on an arbitrary standard, but they are still a factor in who gets paid, who becomes an All-Star, who becomes a Hall-of-Famer, so there are meaningful outcomes subjected to these misleading functions. And yes, WPA added — especially if we can get a more perfect version of that number — is a far more illuminating piece of information.

MFS62 Mar 28 2021 08:40 AM Re: Let My Love Open the Game

Under current rules, the official scorer has the option of assigning the win to any pitcher if the scorer feels the traditional "pitcher of record" (the guy for whom the winning runs were scored) has pitched "briefly and ineffectively". Unfortunately, that does not apply to a starter. When discussing this rule, I have always proposed the following scenario: Starter goes 8 2/3 innings, leaves with a three run lead and the bases loaded. Reliever comes in, throws one pitch. The batter hits a bases loaded triple that clears the bases and the batter gets thrown out at home trying for the inside-the-park homer. First batter in the bottom of the ninth hits a homer. Should the reliever get the win? He pitched briefly (one pitch) and ineffectively (he let in three runs). But do official scorers give the starter the win? They can't under the current rules. The reliever gets the "vulture" win. That is unfair as well. I believe the rules should be changed with the recent move toward openers, to give scorers more flexibility to penalize ineffective relievers, but I'm not sure how. Later

Edgy MD Mar 28 2021 09:03 AM Re: Let My Love Open the Game

In 2020, Jacob deGrom was fourth in WPA, while being tied for 34th in wins. I don't think we should be trying to fix wins credited to pitchers so much as trying to replace them.