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The 60-Game mark -- Movin' on Up

Frayed Knot Jun 17 2021 06:01 AM

-- Now 10 games over .500 - a nice little mini-milestone as we (finally!) hit the 60 game mark. All others have played between 65 & 70 -- Currently the third-best record in the NL behind only the Giants (4.0 G) & Dodgers (2.0 G) as this recent stretch has moved us past SDP, CHC, MIL -- Five games in front in the NL East which is also the largest lead of any division leader [ChiSox = +4.5] 2021 vs 2020 Now that the number of games played is temporarily equal, what we see is a tale of two very different seasons, starting with 35-25 vs 26-34. But it's in the RS/RA where things get wacky. RA/G [3.48] is the best in the NL. RS/G [3.88] is 12th ahead of only MIA, WAS, PIT The 2021 NYM have scored 55 Fewer Runs than their counterparts from a year ago, but also allowed 99 fewer Part of this likely reflects a league-wide trend, only I suspect the Mets are more extreme than most. We're also now within two games of our Pythagorean Projected Record [33-27] a gap which has been shrinking since earlier in the year when we were posting (slightly) winning records despite a negative RS/RA tally.

Johnny Lunchbucket Jun 17 2021 07:14 AM Re: The 60-Game mark -- Movin' on Up

Yeah 10 over is when I can start to get excited about the possibilities down the road. Ideally I'd like to get 10-over, 10-over

Benjamin Grimm Jun 17 2021 07:39 AM Re: The 60-Game mark -- Movin' on Up

.500 the rest of the way would be 86 wins, which might be enough to win the division, but might not. I imagine that the Phillies or the Braves have a hot streak ahead of them at some point.

roger_that Jun 17 2021 08:03 AM Re: The 60-Game mark -- Movin' on Up

Imagine what happens when deGrom starts getting REALLY hot.

Centerfield Jun 17 2021 01:56 PM Re: The 60-Game mark -- Movin' on Up

You figure the pitching will regress from what it's been. Hopefully the offense ticks up to make up for it.

Frayed Knot Jun 17 2021 02:26 PM Re: The 60-Game mark -- Movin' on Up

If nothing else, the offense has been improving. They spent the early part of the season DFL in RS/G, numbers that were brought down, mostly anyway, by the putrid RiSP ABs. Those numbers were unsustainable and had to improve just by accident if nothing else, which they did and it was enough to leap us past three teams anyway. Plus we've seen the two big FA signees show signs of life since the early weeks and then there's the multiple missing men who may start to reappear soon. The pitching has been at or near the top all along so that one feels more 'real'. It doesn't mean the number will stay where it is but the place among NL teams seems less likely to plummet multiple slots. We've also gone from a record which was multiple games better (like 4 or 5) than the Pythag Proj which is tough to do so early in the season. Now it's down to two games up ("should be" 33-27) which, particularly with a larger sample size, is more like a rounding error and suggest the idea that they're playing at or above projections ever since.