Master Index of Archived Threads


I Give Up: 2021

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 24 2021 09:14 PM

Tonight. I quit. No heart, no courage no brains.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 24 2021 09:25 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

This is not a postseason team.

Edgy MD Aug 24 2021 09:32 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I think they are. The substance is there. It's philosophically where they fall down.

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 24 2021 09:42 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I don't actually believe they've demonstrated they can hit enough to play 700 ball the rest of the way, nor do I think they have the pitching that would allow for such a stretch anymore. Tonight I was so optimistic that they would show something-- ots beyond obvious it was time-- and they embarrassed themselves against an emergency tomato can. This feels at best like the kinda season that, even if they did reach the finish line, they'd deserve a one-game bounce-out by the kind of playoff peers that are routinely outclassed them on the field

Lefty Specialist Aug 25 2021 04:43 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

This team hasn't demonstrated enough that they can even finish at .500, let alone the playoffs. Fork, meet Mets.

Frayed Knot Aug 25 2021 05:01 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Tonight I was so optimistic that they would show something-- ots beyond obvious it was time-- and they embarrassed themselves against an emergency tomato can. Hey, they got four singles ... plus two walks!!

MFS62 Aug 25 2021 05:54 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I don't give up on my teams. But they are making that very difficult. The physical talent is there, but they seem to just be going through the motions. They need a brain transplant. Or a new heart. Later

seawolf17 Aug 25 2021 06:15 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

YA. GOTTA. BELIEVE.

kcmets Aug 25 2021 06:28 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

[YOUTUBE]V8lT1o0sDwI[/YOUTUBE]

kcmets Aug 25 2021 06:36 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

The Braves lost. 6 1/2 out (6 in the loss column) with 37 to play! 37! A familiar number. Baby steps. Let's whittle it down to 2 out by Labor Day Weekend. [Rocco]Difficult. Not impossible.[/Rocco] We need someone to come out from behind the weeds and rip off a 7-8 IGT win- ning streak and do it NOW!!!

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 25 2021 06:50 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

37! "In a row?" (name that movie)

kcmets Aug 25 2021 06:53 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I won't spoil it because I had to Google. Even though I've seen that movie like a dozen times lol...

stevejrogers Aug 25 2021 08:43 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: 37! "In a row?" (name that movie) They are in production for a third sequel of it, right now in the same place that it takes place in.

ashie62 Aug 25 2021 09:14 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I'm not going to quit but I believe the Mets may have. The lineup last night 1-7 was all hitters with serious resumes. It is one thing to say they are unproductive but another to say the offense is fundamentally broken, which it is.

duan Aug 25 2021 09:16 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I'm not there with the it's over yet but you have to think they need 4/5 of the hitters to go on a tear that wins them games in the first 3 innings because they sure as hell aren't gonna get the pitching they did back in April & May. I mean they've got 5 guys who can produce a month of 1,000 OPS - but they need ALL of them to do that in the next month or something batshit crazy like that.

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 25 2021 10:27 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

So Team 2 Legit: Seawolf Duan Any Kc Edgy Mfs62 Team Quit Jcl Frayed? Grimm Lefty Team37 Dicks in a Row Rogers

Benjamin Grimm Aug 25 2021 10:47 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

It's possible to be hopeful and pessimistic at the same time. I am. I hope they get on a hot streak and surge into first place, but I see it as extremely unlikely.

TransMonk Aug 25 2021 10:47 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I took the West coast trip as a good time to check out for a while since I wasn't going to stay up late to watch. Had they done better in Cali, I would have checked back in, but after last night, I have no reason to believe they can pull off the miracle. Yesterday, MLB's Facebook page decided to show me the highlights from 08/24/15 which was the game against the Phillies where the Mets hit 8 HRs and won 16-7. Those are the kind of performances that we are needing to climb back into the race and this team does not seem capable of those performances. 2015 was a case study in pitching dominating the first half of the season while waiting for the offense to arrive. Luckily it did that year, but there are too many hitters on this team that look lost and have zero sense of urgency. I feel like the 2021 team should be achieving more even with all the injuries. I have never had much faith in Rojas at managing the MLB club and that has dwindled down close to zero.

stevejrogers Aug 25 2021 10:54 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Team37 Dicks in a Row Rogers I guess that means I'm doing the Wild Card Game IGT with a certain quote as the thread title? Though I like the idea of saying “HEY, TRY NOT TO WIN ANY BALLGAMES ON YOUR WAY TO THE PARKING LOT! Hey, get back here!”

Ceetar Aug 25 2021 11:00 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I'm still in. If they lose more ground over the next say..10 days, then no, but right now I think, if were were starting the season today, on paper, you'd still take the Mets. They're better than they've been playing, and the Braves are worse than they're playing. Can they play 1 game better than them every week, and then beat them head to head to end it all? yes. that's reasonable.

Methead Aug 25 2021 11:07 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

=kcmets post_id=75429 time=1629896034 user_id=53] Even though I've seen that movie like a dozen times lol...

in a row?

ashie62 Aug 25 2021 11:19 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: So Team 2 Legit: Seawolf Duan Any Kc Edgy Mfs62 Team Quit Jcl Frayed? Grimm Lefty Team37 Dicks in a Row Rogers I'm closest to the still legit.

kcmets Aug 25 2021 11:33 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

=Methead post_id=75453 time=1629911272 user_id=61] =kcmets post_id=75429 time=1629896034 user_id=53] Even though I've seen that movie like a dozen times lol...

in a row?

Lol



I just finished 'on demanded'ng it mostly for back round audio as I was on

the computers doing stuff. There are some timelessly damn funny lines.

kcmets Aug 25 2021 11:35 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I'm not really on team 2 legit to quit, more mathematically alive and hope there's a hot streak coming and it's almost impossible to continue leaving so many RISP. But it's baseball, we'll see...

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 25 2021 12:59 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Team37 Dicks in a Row Rogers I guess that means I'm doing the Wild Card Game IGT with a certain quote as the thread title? Though I like the idea of saying “HEY, TRY NOT TO WIN ANY BALLGAMES ON YOUR WAY TO THE PARKING LOT! Hey, get back here!” Lolll

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 25 2021 01:00 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: So Team 2 Legit: Seawolf Duan Any Kc Edgy Mfs62 Team Quit Jcl Frayed? Grimm Lefty Team37 Dicks in a Row Rogers I'm closest to the still legit. Ashie autocorrected to any

batmagadanleadoff Aug 25 2021 01:20 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Holy shades of 2019! Holy News flash! The Mets don't give a shit whether or not youse gave up. Have a four-pack. Batman wouldn't give up. [FIMG=555]https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50952848878_70de6b9e85_b.jpg[/FIMG] [FIMG=555]https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50269484156_bf7a1ae7a2_b.jpg[/FIMG] [FIMG=555]https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49723684028_a729788bdc_b.jpg[/FIMG] [FIMG=555]https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49698136146_ecb5da0aa0_b.jpg[/FIMG] http://phpbb3.ultimatemets.com/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=28485&hilit=kersh&start=50

MFS62 Aug 25 2021 01:43 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Batman wouldn't give up. But we just found out that Robin would give it up for Batman. https://nypost.com/2021/08/10/robin-is-bisexual-new-batman-comic-confirms/ Later

Marshmallowmilkshake Aug 25 2021 02:01 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Yogi wasn't lying! It ain't over till it's over!

bmfc1 Aug 25 2021 02:25 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I'm realistic but no. Not yet.

G-Fafif Aug 25 2021 08:07 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

On the YEA or NAY board in Continental Congress from 1776, the Secretary can move my tile to whichever one corresponds with QUIT.

Centerfield Aug 25 2021 08:11 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Fire everyone.

nymr83 Aug 25 2021 10:03 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

When is kickoff? what's that you say? Lawson done for the year? Curry too? even things that Rhyme with "Mets" are cursed. Bring on the Knicks!

metsmarathon Aug 26 2021 06:10 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

i believe. i believe. it's silly, but i believe....

MFS62 Aug 26 2021 06:17 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Haven't given up yet, but the list of catalyst candidates is rapidly diminishing. That last at bat dropped Pete off my list. Later

Fman99 Aug 26 2021 07:14 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I haven't quit. I'm just mad because they suck so hard.

smg58 Aug 26 2021 08:57 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

A number of guys have been playing with nagging injuries. McNeil looked like himself in July, but that was after playing part-time for a couple of weeks when he came back from the IL. After a couple of weeks in the lineup every day, he hit a brick wall again. I think having everybody back will make it possible to rotate people, and you'll start to see guys like McNeil, Conforto, Smith, and Lindor show signs of life. But they dug far too big of a hole this month and they will come up short. I'm inclined to agree with CF's last comment as far as the front office and coaching staff are concerned. They've demonstrated quite emphatically that money isn't everything. Whoever convinced DeGrom that he needed to throw harder should be forbidden from ever entering another stadium, even if he purchases tickets. The only free agent I bring back is Stroman.

Ceetar Aug 26 2021 09:42 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

=smg58 post_id=75574 time=1629989857 user_id=62] I'm inclined to agree with CF's last comment as far as the front office and coaching staff are concerned. They've demonstrated quite emphatically that money isn't everything. Whoever convinced DeGrom that he needed to throw harder should be forbidden from ever entering another stadium, even if he purchases tickets. The only free agent I bring back is Stroman.

What evidence do we have that throwing hard is the cause of his injuries? (well, harder) Is there no evidence it was simply that he tweaked his mechanics in a more effective way, giving him the MPH boost and the injuries are simply because he's a pitcher throwing hard?

Centerfield Aug 26 2021 09:50 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I wasn't kidding with the fire everyone statement. Let's assume for now that Steve Cohen has not meddled to Wilponian levels yet. That leaves hope that things can get righted. Sandy has to be the first to go. He hired Mickey, he hired Jared Porter. Then right after saying he's gotta look at character and do more due diligence, he went hard after Trevor Bauer. The McCann signing only made sense with the implication that big things would follow. Then they did not. George Springer has a .972 OPS. Javy Baez wasn't having a great season, then has gotten worse since getting here (more about the "approach" later). His big offseason acquisition has been a bust. Bye Sandy. Whoever is responsible for the offense's "approach" has to go. All year long, they talked about how the results were there, but the approach was correct. WTF. As far as I can tell, the approach appears to be "let's ground into the shift, like all the time" or "let's swing and miss at fastballs down the dick". Zach Scott? Tim Scott? He's so forgettable I can't even remember his name. His one defining quality is that he looks like he calendared the press conference for the next day and had to be woken up from his nap and rushed into the press room. Luis Rojas. No explanation necessary. Heads have to roll.

metsmarathon Aug 26 2021 11:24 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

our offensive approach should be to turn on videos of the 2015 world series and look at how we got beat. by hitters hitting the damned ball, and beating good pitching. not by swinging for home runs on every pitch that you guess might just be a strike down the middle, after the pitcher clearly demonstrated on the prior 10 pitches in the at bat that he couldn't find the strike zone if it crawled up his ass and gave him a prostate exam. Our approach has been garbage all year, longer even (decades? it's been decades sine we last drove in a runner on third with less than two outs, hasn't it?), and we keep chasing for heeeyoooj home runs instead of making contact and moving runners. even our good hitters got sucked down that rabbit hole. and pete, god love him, needs to dial it back every now and again too. just because you can mash the ball out of jellystone park on any given swing doesn't mean that you need to. sometimes you just need to hit the damned ball and move the runners along. i'm down everyone right now. but i'm irrational and totally go whichever way the winds blow. i'm also often wrong. that's why i still believe. that said, yeesh, how do you bring anybody back who isn't stroman? ok, loup - he's been good. but is also a reliever, so how much do you want to pay there? conforto? syndergaard? how can you trust either of those guys right now? granted i don't know whats out there that could be better. likely not a lot, right? familia? villar? rich hill? pass.

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 26 2021 11:37 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

As the season goes along I'm getting the impression that the club identified the problems with the hitting approach before this year even started (as explained they wanted to make a move but gave Chili a few weeks). What's happened since is they haven't been satisfied by the buy-in from the players. Same thing with the injuries if you read between the lines of Scott's remarks a few weeks back. The rat-racoon and Donnie: Shenanigans from a club that has lost its way and don't take shit from nobody. They're like Trump supporters. Adding: This doesn't absolve the front office/management from responsibility for this disaster, because their solutions clearly haven't worked. But I dunno. We know McNeil is hardheaded and been jerked around and punched in the face on camera by a guy who's definitely going nowhere, Conforto is a Boras free-agent-to-be, Smith would probably prefer to be a first baseman somewhere and Davis is probably unnerved by all the trade talk. They all believe they're good hitters naturally and you'd presume their inclination would be to fall back on what they know when things get difficult for them. Alonso is a weird case in that he's so one-dimensional, but its a good dimension to have. But boy is he an easy out sometimes. Good line Jellystone park!

Ceetar Aug 26 2021 12:07 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

McNeil and Smith are really the crux of this. The other guys are mostly fine (Alonso is who he is, Conforto and Lindor have been back to normal, and Nimmo and Davis are basically their usual good-hitting selfs) or actually not very good overall so it's hard to say which is approach and which is just suck. This includes Villar, Pillar, Nido, Guillorme... McCann is probably just bad. So five good hitters and 1 that sucks when we're healthy, with McNeil and Smith falling on the bad side of things, and REALLY bad for the most part. And the five good hitters haven't really been healthy together until Tuesday of this week, or early in the season when Conforto and Lindor were scuffling, but the team was winning. Sure, they could've won more games then and be in a better position now, but I think there's more to be said about Lindor and Conforto reverting to being GOOD than killing McNeil and Smith (or McCann) for not, the first two have much longer track records. This is where the hope lies. With Lindor back, we should have Lindor, Conforto, Nimmo, Alonso, and Davis hitting the ball well. Baez isn't great but he's not as terrible as Smith was, who's the guy that's mostly losing playing time. So if McNeil can just be okay, and McCann can come back to at least make C not an auto-out, the Mets SHOULD score more runs. Will it happen? who knows.

Lefty Specialist Aug 26 2021 12:29 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

This team needs to be roto-rootered. Agreed that Sandy needs to go for starters, quickly followed by Rojas. If Scott was so good, he would have had the interim tag removed, and he hasn't. And that's just the front office. QO's to Conforto and Thor. They both have a lot to prove, and if they leave you get picks that hopefully the next front office will know how to use wisely. Get deGrom the surgery he probably needs by now. One of Dom Smith or JD Davis needs to be traded-you can't have two DH's. I think Stroman's shown enough to be resigned but would he want to stay? You're stuck with Carrasco since he has no value. And please, no Baez. If he's signed, that means Lindor is running the team, with all that implies.

Marshmallowmilkshake Aug 26 2021 01:01 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I don't think Sandy's going anywhere, and I don't think he should have to. I think the same about Rojas. It's not Zack Scott's fault you can't remember his name. There are some years where you are just killed by by injuries. It wasn't just that the front-line guys were lost, it was all the depth behind them -- Lucchesi Yamomoto -- also got hurt. Is there anyone who hasn't been on the IL this season? Dom, maybe? You can predict that some of these guys are going to get hurt. Heck, they couldn't even hold on to the depth signings because they kept getting claimed off waivers. But you can't predict they all would get hurt. Just like you can predict that some of them might have an off year, but you can't predict they all would have off years. I don't want to let Conforto walk away and have him get his head back on straight and become a monster player for another team. We know how good Syndergaard is when he is going well. The Shea Anything podcast made it seem like everyone is getting tired of McNeil's inability to control his temper so I wouldn't be surprised if he is part of a trade package.

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 26 2021 01:15 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Change of scenery trade for McNeil, probably to the kinda team that could use a gritty all-arounder (Pittsburgh) and/or one that can look beyond blemishes for the performance (Oakland)-- we'll take less than they hope to get back, tho. Boras certain to auction Conforto, I see him going to Seattle. Mets counter and sign Castellanos who opts out of Cincy. The DH could solve a few things for us if we still believe in Smith/Davis. I think Baez is back (right handed power, good glove if flawed in many ways, but buddies with Lindor). I think they will try and retain Syndy & Stro and probably Walker too but not sure who the FA starters are this time around. The Front Office gets a permanent GM, Scott becomes his assistant (maybe) and they make the call on Rojas. Sandy sticks around in emeritus role he was sorta meant to have.

Lefty Specialist Aug 26 2021 01:19 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Walker signed a two year deal, so he'll be back.

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 26 2021 01:20 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

oh good

MFS62 Aug 26 2021 02:09 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: The DH could solve a few things for us if we still believe in Smith/Davis. (cough) Cano (cough) Later

The Hot Corner Aug 26 2021 06:48 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Lefty Specialist wrote: This team hasn't demonstrated enough that they can even finish at .500, let alone the playoffs. Fork, meet Mets. I will be surprised if this team finishes at .500. The only hitters I have any faith in, are Nimmo and Alonso. As I type that, Pete launches a bomb down the line to tie the game.

bmfc1 Aug 26 2021 08:22 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

They are now playing for next year. Bye Luis. Re: the comments about Sandy: whether it was Sandy or the fired guy, whoever said, "let's grab McCann now instead of waiting for Realmuto otherwise we might end up with neither" not only should be fired he should never be allowed to work in baseball again.

LWFS Aug 27 2021 12:01 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Yeah, after tonight-- without even the token, win-the-third-game moral series victory-- I give. Of course, we have tickets tomorrow. So... that'll be fun.

Ceetar Aug 27 2021 07:17 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

They are now playing for next year. Bye Luis. Re: the comments about Sandy: whether it was Sandy or the fired guy, whoever said, "let's grab McCann now instead of waiting for Realmuto otherwise we might end up with neither" not only should be fired he should never be allowed to work in baseball again. I mean Sandy should be fired for the hand-waving sexual harassment, but his baseball stuff isn't great either.

Centerfield Sep 02 2021 07:21 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

=Centerfield post_id=75579 time=1629993016 user_id=65] Zach Scott? Tim Scott? He's so forgettable I can't even remember his name. His one defining quality is that he looks like he calendared the press conference for the next day and had to be woken up from his nap and rushed into the press room.

Had no idea when I wrote this that Zach Scott's naps would be his undoing.

duan Sep 04 2021 02:36 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Call me out if they lose this

kcmets Sep 09 2021 05:34 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Uncle, and expecting an embarrassing weekend just to stick the fork in deeper.

Lefty Specialist Sep 09 2021 08:04 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

In the past few days they've had winnable games against bad teams on days that the Braves and Phillies both lost. And yes, they're going to get spanked by the MFY's this weekend.

Willets Point Sep 09 2021 09:16 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Not giving up.

Johnny Lunchbucket Sep 09 2021 09:31 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I don't beleive they will get Spank-eed but Diaz is doing all he can for Team Take This Season And Shove It

Frayed Knot Sep 09 2021 09:43 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

It's unlikely (has been for weeks) but I'm hanging in. And the Yanx have lost five including two of three to Baltimore (who were mathematically eliminated from the AL East on Mother's Day) so I ain't going cowering in fear at the sight of pinstripes.

metsmarathon Sep 09 2021 10:47 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

fuck the yankees

The Hot Corner Sep 09 2021 06:55 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I have had very little faith the Mets could (or would) catch the Braves, since their 2-11 debacle against the Dodgers and Giants. Last night pretty much did me in. If they waste this wonderful start from Stroman (as they did Hill's effort last night), then I am officially done expecting any post-season in 2021.

Willets Point Sep 09 2021 09:15 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Fuck it. This weekend they will sweep the Yankees, knock them out of a playoff spot, and get themselves in to 2nd place in the division. It's gonna happen.

ashie62 Sep 10 2021 03:31 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Its over

Marshmallowmilkshake Sep 10 2021 06:38 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Andy Martino often says Familia and Diaz are responsible for keeping the Mets out of the playoffs in 2019. I'm sensing a repeat of that -- though you can't let the offense off the hook for these last two games.

seawolf17 Sep 10 2021 06:56 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Willets Point wrote: Fuck it. This weekend they will sweep the Yankees, knock them out of a playoff spot, and get themselves in to 2nd place in the division. It's gonna happen. This. I'm holding my hat on this. I can't let go until the tragic number is zero. YA. GOTTA. BELIEVE.

kcmets Sep 10 2021 07:25 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

Aww, what the hell! But let's see how rah rah people are tomorrow morning and it's six out instead of five. #lgm #ygb #Ymdyf

Ceetar Sep 10 2021 07:33 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

I still had some faith but with Nimmo out, I'm teetering now that it's 6 out. They gotta at least gain a game this weekend or that's almost definitely it.

kcmets Sep 10 2021 08:49 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

5 out (6 in the loss column)...

Ceetar Sep 10 2021 10:07 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

well yeah, counting those losses for now. Though somehow it's Atlanta that's played 2 games less, feels like we've been perpetually 5 games less than everyone else all season. I don't think the Braves are very good though, so granting them those 2 wins seems unlikely. Still, gain a game this weekend. Might mean you have to sweep, but then do it. unrelated, I Noticed Atlanta has 'Terrapin Taproom Tuesdays' 3 12oz beers and BBQ before the game, and good seats, for $70. If I ever find myself in Atlanta on a Tuesday...

MFS62 Sep 10 2021 10:37 AM Re: I Give Up: 2021

=Ceetar post_id=77166 time=1631290063 user_id=102] unrelated, I Noticed Atlanta has 'Terrapin Taproom Tuesdays' 3 12oz beers and BBQ before the game, and good seats, for $70. If I ever find myself in Atlanta on a Tuesday...

It would have to be real good to beat hot dogs and onion rings at the Varsity and upper deck seats (with a beautiful view of downtown Atlanta) at the Ted.



Later

The Hot Corner Sep 10 2021 08:43 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

=Marshmallowmilkshake post_id=77140 time=1631277531 user_id=119] Andy Martino often says Familia and Diaz are responsible for keeping the Mets out of the playoffs in 2019. I'm sensing a repeat of that -- though you can't let the offense off the hook for these last two games.

The offense, or general lack thereof, is the primary reason the Mets will once again be missing the playoffs.

Frayed Knot Sep 12 2021 03:34 PM Re: I Give Up: 2021

=Marshmallowmilkshake post_id=77140 time=1631277531 user_id=119] Andy Martino often says Familia and Diaz are responsible for keeping the Mets out of the playoffs in 2019. I'm sensing a repeat of that -- though you can't let the offense off the hook for these last two games.

Martino is more or less right about 2019 (not that you can eliminate other factors). Somewhere in the archives of this place is a thread where I calculated that Diaz & Familia combined

to allow an additional (I think it was) 37 more runs in 2019 above what would be expected from them based on an average of each of their three seasons leading up to that year (in

Diaz's case it was against his career numbers).



Normally an extra 37 runs allowed would translate to around 4 extra losses [10 extra/fewer RS/RA = one more/less win over the long haul]. But with the way closers and set-up men are

typically used those extra runs are almost exclusively not just at the back end of games but at the back-end of close games, games where just a run or two is often enough to flip a win

to a loss or vice versa. Impossible to know exactly how many 2019 losses would have been prevented by a 'normal' Edwin/Jeurys tandem, but it was certainly north of four and something

closer to ten would probably be a decent guess. That's a big chunk of games just based on the variations from two guys and they finished out of the WC that year by four games.



Having not run the numbers on this season yet, simple observation leads me to think that that pair hasn't been Nearly as sub-par this season as they were in that and that pen use, back

end or overall, has been among the least of our problems this year.

You also can't judge them against a model of perfection so it's not as easy as saying: 'we lost by three games and JeurEdwin blew five down the stretch therefore they cost us an October

shot' since their average selves or the projected performance by whoever their theoretical replacement(s) would be would have their share of off-nights as well.