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What about Javy?

Benjamin Grimm Sep 14 2021 11:38 AM

To go along with the McSquirrel thread, what about Javy? Do we think he'll be back in 2022? For a while there I was pretty certain the answer was no, but no I'm not so sure. Further complicating things is that we don't even know who will be making the decision.

TransMonk Sep 14 2021 11:47 AM Re: What about Javy?

Well, I'm also assuming Cano comes back next year after his suspension is listed. He's still under contract for a couple years, no? I suppose if the DH comes to the NL in 2022, there is a possibility that Baez could play 2B and Cano could be at DH, but I have to think if Baez wants to maximize his value that he could hit the market as a SS and make more.

MFS62 Sep 14 2021 11:48 AM Re: What about Javy?

I think if they make a competitive offer to him, he'll stay. He seems to like it here (now that the thumbs down and booing have stopped) and he has responded by playing well. His ceiling is higher than McNeil's, but his floor may be lower. In response to Monk, I think (but am not sure) Cano only has one more year on his contract. Later

Johnny Lunchbucket Sep 14 2021 11:49 AM Re: What about Javy?

He most definitely will be back,write it down. Him and Alonso together are righthanded hitting powerplants. He's a skilled fielder and good runner. They didn't get him just for a 3 month test drive.

TransMonk Sep 14 2021 11:53 AM Re: What about Javy?

https://i.imgur.com/q5xsPca.png> Cano signed through 2023 at a salary that leads me to believe he needs to be in the lineup somewhere.

A Boy Named Seo Sep 14 2021 11:54 AM Re: What about Javy?

I'm not sure the Mets will be Javy's best offer, but I'm still real confident the Mets will try to bring him back (and I think they should).

Ceetar Sep 14 2021 12:11 PM Re: What about Javy?

more thoughts on this week's Mets On Tap podcast, in your feed. (rate, review, subscribe) [url]https://www.barleyprose.com/beer/1515/ Báez is okay as part of the bigger picture, but they need 1, more 2, outfielders and particularly guys that can get on base, which is where Báez fails. We're lucky he's having about a good as stretch as he's ever had right now, though that's clearly not his true talent level.

Edgy MD Sep 14 2021 01:16 PM Re: What about Javy?

Oh, I think it matches his talent. It just doesn't match his performance baseline to date. The guy is sick with talent.

Ceetar Sep 14 2021 01:45 PM Re: What about Javy?

He's a career 104 wRC+. That's over 3200 PA. That's a pretty large sample, and a pretty good representative of what his talent level is. He's been hitting twice that the last few weeks. We can't let the last few weeks forget that what we're signing long term would be the 104 guy, which is fine, but not as the lynchpin of your offense, which is why his acquisition at the deadline was so poorly thought out.

Frayed Knot Sep 14 2021 01:54 PM Re: What about Javy?

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: He's a skilled fielder and good runner. They didn't get him just for a 3 month test drive. This is the conundrum with this guy. He's a skilled fielder (who has 20 errors this year and only his juggling act last night kept that from being 21 even though that bobble prevented a DP in an inning where the Cards scored several two-out runs) and a good runner (who makes a lot of stupid base running decisions and his hand jive stuff only occasionally allows him to get away with it). And then there's the .305 career OBA which peaked at .326 in his best season (2018) and is .286 since the start of 2020 so it's not improving and he turn 29 y/o in December so one wonders if he's already too old to change his spots. And it likely won't be a short commitment.

Edgy MD Sep 14 2021 02:25 PM Re: What about Javy?

=Ceetar post_id=77708 time=1631648710 user_id=102] He's a career 104 wRC+. That's over 3200 PA. That's a pretty large sample, and a pretty good representative of what his talent level is.

I distinguish a guy's talent from his performance baseline.

Ceetar Sep 14 2021 02:27 PM Re: What about Javy?

yes, but you didn't write that, I did. Call it whatever you want, though 'true talent' is a pretty standard usage. Doesn't change the point.

Edgy MD Sep 14 2021 02:29 PM Re: What about Javy?

I don't understand what I didn't write.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 14 2021 02:35 PM Re: What about Javy?

I don't mind Baez. But if the Mets hitters were hitting to our expectations this season, Baez would be hitting about 7th in the lineup if that was up to me. If Baez played on a team like the '77 Mets, then I could see him in the cleanup slot, like Dave Kingman. But like Ceets said, those numbers don't lie, and we've got a huge sample size to work with, and Baez, who'll turn 30 on his next birthday, may have already peaked. Plus, defense goes before offense does, especially at the crucial and more demanding positions Baez plays.

Centerfield Sep 14 2021 03:24 PM Re: What about Javy?

Frayed Knot wrote: Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: He's a skilled fielder and good runner. They didn't get him just for a 3 month test drive. This is the conundrum with this guy. He's a skilled fielder (who has 20 errors this year and only his juggling act last night kept that from being 21 even though that bobble prevented a DP in an inning where the Cards scored several two-out runs) and a good runner (who makes a lot of stupid base running decisions and his hand jive stuff only occasionally allows him to get away with it). And then there's the .305 career OBA which peaked at .326 in his best season (2018) and is .286 since the start of 2020 so it's not improving and he turn 29 y/o in December so one wonders if he's already too old to change his spots. And it likely won't be a short commitment. Yes. This exactly. All the talk of strikeouts, it's the lack of OBP. And even in his shorts Mets stint where they are talking about "the new selective Javy Baez", he's walked 6 times in 125 PAs. Which doesn't sound like a lot except he walked only 7 times in 235 PAs last year. Plate discipline isn't a skill that young players seem to be able to acquire. And certainly not at age 29. I get that Baez does a lot of things well. But almost all of that is based on ridiculous athleticism. I don't think that tends to age well. So, with long term commitments being risky to begin with, I don't think they should take a risk on a guy that already has so many question marks surrounding his game. Which is why I believe that Sandy Alderson would have absolutely made a full effort to sign him this winter. Hopefully the new front office has other thoughts.

Edgy MD Sep 14 2021 04:28 PM Re: What about Javy?

Yeah, I didn't support the trade for such reasons, and I don't support a re-signing, but we'll see.

G-Fafif Sep 14 2021 04:33 PM Re: What about Javy?

Lindor plus fill-in-the-blank up the middle will feel like a disappointment after Lindor plus Baez, at least in the short term.

MFS62 Sep 14 2021 04:36 PM Re: What about Javy?

=G-Fafif post_id=77729 time=1631658813 user_id=55] Lindor plus fill-in-the-blank up the middle will feel like a disappointment after Lindor plus Baez, at least in the short term.

Unless McNeil remembers how to hit.

Later

G-Fafif Sep 14 2021 04:40 PM Re: What about Javy?

McNeil = Zobrist in my dreams (except in a Mets uniform).

Frayed Knot Sep 14 2021 05:03 PM Re: What about Javy?

=G-Fafif post_id=77731 time=1631659233 user_id=55] McNeil = Zobrist in my dreams

Minus the crazy, cheating wife drama.

Gwreck Sep 14 2021 05:24 PM Re: What about Javy?

=TransMonk post_id=77693 time=1631641644 user_id=71] Well, I'm also assuming Cano comes back next year after his suspension is listed. He's still under contract for a couple years, no?

If I'm the Mets, I'd like to tell Cano that he's facing two years of being a pariah, riding the bench as the 26th man, is never going to start again, etc. But: we're willing to negotiate a fair buyout if you'd like to be released from your contract. Your choice.



Does this hold up if there's a grievance filed? Eh…

Marshmallowmilkshake Sep 14 2021 06:15 PM Re: What about Javy?

I'd be surprised if Cano comes back. Would rather release him and eat the contract and not care if he plays for someone else. Would be a bold statement from Cohen.

Ceetar Sep 14 2021 06:17 PM Re: What about Javy?

no, that's just dumb. Also Cohen doesn't make bold statements, just blustery ones.

Marshmallowmilkshake Sep 14 2021 07:11 PM Re: What about Javy?

It's not dumb. Cano is a 38 year old disgraced juicer who has been away a year.

Ceetar Sep 14 2021 07:45 PM Re: What about Javy?

he can hit. no one cares about steroids, they just put Jeter in the HoF for crying out loud. Either way there's zero value in cutting him and at least some value in trying to play him, or even just pretending you're going to.

kcmets Sep 14 2021 07:59 PM Re: What about Javy?

=Ceetar post_id=77751 time=1631670300 user_id=102] no one cares about steroids, they just put Jeter in the HoF for crying out loud.

That was pretty funny

Frayed Knot Sep 14 2021 08:10 PM Re: What about Javy? Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 14 2021 08:28 PM

he can hit. -- a sub 100 OPS+ in his last full season when he was 36 y/o. He'll turn 39 in a few weeks with 40-some games played over two full years no one cares about steroids -- yes they do I'm not even going to ask why a Jeter comment in in there

Edgy MD Sep 14 2021 08:26 PM Re: What about Javy?

He's been off the field for a year because somebody cares about steroids.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 14 2021 09:09 PM Re: What about Javy?

=kcmets post_id=77753 time=1631671148 user_id=53] =Ceetar post_id=77751 time=1631670300 user_id=102] no one cares about steroids, they just put Jeter in the HoF for crying out loud.

That was pretty funny


And spot on. Not necessarily the Jeter stuff but what he suggests about Cano. If Cano can still contribute the Mets should keep him. It wont be a disgrace if Cano can still put up 115 OPS+ seasons. That's the issue. Not that he was suspended. Personally I doubt that Cano could still hit like that, but that's the issue.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 14 2021 09:11 PM Re: What about Javy?

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=77786 time=1631675383 user_id=68] =kcmets post_id=77753 time=1631671148 user_id=53] =Ceetar post_id=77751 time=1631670300 user_id=102] no one cares about steroids, they just put Jeter in the HoF for crying out loud.

That was pretty funny


And spot on. Not necessarily the Jeter stuff but what he suggests about Cano. If Cano can still contribute the Mets should keep him. It wont be a disgrace if Cano can still put up 115 OPS+ seasons. That's the issue. Not that he was suspended. Personally I doubt that Cano could still hit like that, but that's the issue.


If the Mets think Cano can still put up 115 OPS+ seasons, they'll play him.

Fman99 Sep 15 2021 05:35 AM Re: What about Javy?

Sign Baez for 4-5 years, not ten. Cano will be back in 2022. They won't cut bait on him without first at least seeing what he has in the tank after a year off. I assume he gets on newer better juice and hits like always.

Ceetar Sep 15 2021 05:50 AM Re: What about Javy?

except for like, a slow start to 2019 he's been AT LEAST 12% better than average every season since 2008!, and usually much better. And while he hasn't been facing major league hitting, he HAS been playing baseball. He's not going to get in because #bbwaa and missing time here, but his bat is HoF caliber. Maybe it'll have dropped off, but damn, I need to see it drop off before I throw more money after Javy.

Marshmallowmilkshake Sep 15 2021 06:42 AM Re: What about Javy?

=Ceetar post_id=77820 time=1631706615 user_id=102] except for like, a slow start to 2019 he's been AT LEAST 12% better than average every season since 2008!, and usually much better. And while he hasn't been facing major league hitting, he HAS been playing baseball. He's not going to get in because #bbwaa and missing time here, but his bat is HoF caliber. Maybe it'll have dropped off, but damn, I need to see it drop off before I throw more money after Javy.

Last time we saw his bat -- for 49 games in 2020 -- he was juicing AND the ball was juiced. And he was juicing in 2018 the first time he was suspended. He hit .259 in just 107 games in 2019 when he allegedly was not using PEDs. So you have to go back to 2017 to find a decent season when he was not chemically assisted. I'd rather spend that money on a player who is not 39 and is not a two-time cheater. Maybe that's Baez, maybe it's someone else. This might be where Cohen gets to show the benefits of his wallet. Would his bat be HoF caliber if he was not using PEDs? He might have a role if teh DH comes back. But even then, we have other guys who would be better at DH.

Ceetar Sep 15 2021 07:06 AM Re: What about Javy?

please, they're all juicing. Was he juicing in Seattle in 2018 when he hit? Did it help him jump is BB%? Can you link ANY study that even comes close to approximating the value of steroids or conclusively defines the (positive) impact they have? Until Cano shows he can't hit, I'm gonna assume he can hit. I don't have the actual numbers on this, but it's probably pretty rare for a hitter that established go from solidly above average to below replacement level in two years. Whether or not Cohen bothers to use his wealth to actually fix this team, they've already spent the money on Cano. Even the 600k they'd spend on that roster spot if they cut Cano is more. and, it's not about money, it's about maximizing the value of the guys on the roster. I like Guillorme, but damn, the chances that Cano doesn't outhit Guillorme is almost nil. Hell, the value of PRETENDING to play Cano through Spring Training 2022, just for trading leverage, is probably more than the 25th backup IF guy you'd have there instead. The last time YOU saw his bat, which was barely more than a year ago. Again, DR ball is not major league ball, but he hasn't been sitting on the couch. btw Cano put up 0.8 Def value according to Fangraphs in 2020, in those 49 games. Taez only has 33 games with the Mets, he's at 0.6. Guillorme, Almora Jr, Villar, McNeil, Conforto, Smith, and Alonso have all put up less Def value than Cano this season. It's ALONSO who should be the DH next year, and they should find someone with a glove. Seems like that might NOT be Dominic Smith.

Marshmallowmilkshake Sep 15 2021 07:27 AM Re: What about Javy?

=Ceetar post_id=77824 time=1631711163 user_id=102] please, they're all juicing.

You say that like its a fact. Have any others been suspended recently besides Cano?

Was he juicing in Seattle in 2018 when he hit?

Yes, and he got caught. Hence the suspension.

Did it help him jump is BB%? Can you link ANY study that even comes close to approximating the value of steroids or conclusively defines the (positive) impact they have? Until Cano shows he can't hit, I'm gonna assume he can hit. I don't have the actual numbers on this, but it's probably pretty rare for a hitter that established go from solidly above average to below replacement level in two years.

I'm going to assume he took the performance-enhancing drugs because they enhanced his performance. He clearly thought the benefit of taking them outweighed the risk of destroying a potential Hall of Fame career. Better question is how long he was taking them before he was caught.



Last I read he was only allowed to play in the DR winter league. I have no idea what he's been doing since.

MFS62 Sep 15 2021 07:31 AM Re: What about Javy?

Can you link ANY study that even comes close to approximating the value of steroids or conclusively defines the (positive) impact they have? I can't cite a study, but one example comes to mind. Paul O'Neill had 2618 AB in Cincy and was a .259 hitter. He came to the MFYs, where many players and coaches were involved in Steroids in those years, and hit .303 in 4700 AB. The one year jump? .246 in 1992 (Cincy) to .311 in 1993 (NY) at age 30. And when he came to the team, he exhibited the acne and rage associated with taking Steroids that he had not been known for while in Cincy, so it is not a stretch to think his improvement was steroid assisted. Yes, one example does not make a study or prove anything. I'm sure there must be SABR folks who can look into improvement of other players coming to those rumored "hotbeds of steroids" like the MFY were in those days. Later

Ceetar Sep 15 2021 08:10 AM Re: What about Javy?

but you wouldn't be able to isolate out the noise and randomness of year to year changes anyway. And people take all sorts of things that have no benefit, or only a perceived benefit, or a placebo effect. It's not like "take shot, be able to identify sliders 10% more accurately!" It's also an arbitrary list. Would Cano have gotten the same benefit from taking something over the counter? Lacking convincing evidence that anything he did was inflating his ability to such a degree that he's basically me in 2022, there's zero reason not to have him on the roster at least to start. Oh no, he took a drug from an arbitrary list of banned substances. It's all just PR nonsense. I don't know why anyone cares about that. Can he help the team win? Let's find out.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 15 2021 09:28 AM Re: What about Javy? Edited 5 time(s), most recently on Sep 15 2021 10:55 AM

=Ceetar post_id=77824 time=1631711163 user_id=102] it's probably pretty rare for a hitter that established go from solidly above average to below replacement level in two years.

Gary Carter was the best catcher in baseball, hitting and defensively, in 1985 and was essentially done two years later. Darryl Strawberry is the Mets all time leader in HR's, a ROY winner and an MVP runner up with eight productive Mets seasons to his credit. A celebrated overall #1 Mets draft pick, Strawberry had three times the Mets career that Carter did. But Carter's uni has been in mothballs for 20 years and nobody talks about retiring Straw's #.



Keith Hernandez also had three times the Mets career that Carter did and is the greatest fielding first baseman in baseball history. And a Mets runner-up MVP, too, like Straw. But Carter's, not Hernandez's number should be retired. Wanna know why? Because Carter got here after instead of before Keith did. Carter, some Mets fans decided, was the last piece to the puzzle that would win another WS. Keith was merely some earlier piece to the puzzle. And so when Carter hit a dramatic game-winning HR in his first game as a Met on Opening Day, 1985, Mets fan decided right then and there that Carter had single-handedly delivered a WS title for the Mets that the Mets hadn't even won yet. Not just any old WS title, but a WS title that the Mets could not have won without Carter.

MFS62 Sep 15 2021 09:29 AM Re: What about Javy? Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 15 2021 10:19 AM

but you wouldn't be able to isolate out the noise and randomness of year to year changes anyway. And people take all sorts of things that have no benefit, or only a perceived benefit, or a placebo effect. It's not like "take shot, be able to identify sliders 10% more accurately!" Actually, that is exactly the effect of the BALCO steroid cream Barry Bonds used. When the manufacturers and Barry were interviewed (when they were considering whether to ban it), Barry stated that after using the cream, his eyesight improved and he was better able to pick up the rotation of the ball. He also said his improved eyesight allowed him to judge balls/strikes better. (I also heard a bio-chemist confirm that one of the ingredients in BALCO was proven to improve visual acuity in a radio interview around that time.) His post-BALCO OBP/ walk rates are testimony to that improvement. Later

Marshmallowmilkshake Sep 15 2021 09:52 AM Re: What about Javy?

but you wouldn't be able to isolate out the noise and randomness of year to year changes anyway. And people take all sorts of things that have no benefit, or only a perceived benefit, or a placebo effect. It's not like "take shot, be able to identify sliders 10% more accurately!" It's also an arbitrary list. Would Cano have gotten the same benefit from taking something over the counter? Lacking convincing evidence that anything he did was inflating his ability to such a degree that he's basically me in 2022, there's zero reason not to have him on the roster at least to start. Oh no, he took a drug from an arbitrary list of banned substances. It's all just PR nonsense. I don't know why anyone cares about that. Can he help the team win? Let's find out. I'm not sure I'm following. Are actually saying the banned substance list of performance-enhancing drugs was created arbitrarily, and that these drugs have no real effect on a player's abilities, other than giving them more confidence?

Edgy MD Sep 15 2021 10:00 AM Re: What about Javy?

I can't speak to "that established" vs. "replacement level." That's too fuzzy. But performers fall off the table all the time. It's actually not rare at all. Especially if they get hurt, get suspended, or age catches up with them.

whippoorwill Sep 15 2021 11:54 AM Re: What about Javy?

Benjamin Grimm wrote: To go along with the McSquirrel thread, what about Javy? Do we think he'll be back in 2022? For a while there I was pretty certain the answer was no, but no I'm not so sure. Further complicating things is that we don't even know who will be making the decision. Well he doesn't seem to like it here...

Ceetar Sep 15 2021 12:12 PM Re: What about Javy?

Edgy MD wrote: I can't speak to "that established" vs. "replacement level." That's too fuzzy. But performers fall off the table all the time. It's actually not rare at all. Especially if they get hurt, get suspended, or age catches up with them. it's not though. Literally "guys with enough WAR to be potential HoF" is a pretty high bar. And replacement level is literally a 0 WAR. not fuzzy. and yes, the list of banned substances is mostly arbitrary. "If players are taking it and doing well, and its' is not like, an FDA approved product, they'll consider banning it. Unless you get a prescription and a doctor's note. (for some of them) This is certainly a fuzzy area, but it's pretty clear the idea has always been to project the idea that baseball is clean, rather than to actually regulate PED use. Which is a fuzzy area anyway! LIke, say Bond's cream really did improve eyesight (feel like in 20 years something like that would've been distilled down and on the shelves at Walgreens). Is that really a bad thing? There are players and talking heads hot taking that we had to use grip stuff to save the batters lives, so why should something that improves eyesight be banned? Why is that on the other side of the line, the line that means we have to hate a guy and brand him a cheater and always assume all success is a result of that? Batmags mentioned Carter, Carter only had one year at or below re placement level, '89, his last year with the Mets, in only 166 PA. -0.1 fWAR. (absolutely didn't hit that year) but the next two years he weas an above average hitter. He never sunk to replacement level, even as a 38 year old catcher. Catcher. Cano can almost certainly hack it as, at worst, a 2B/DH semi-full time player better than the replacement player the Mets would use his spot for.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 15 2021 12:58 PM Re: What about Javy?

Carter didn't sink to replacement level but he was done as an impact player. He sucked after '86. and with hindsight, the Mets would have been better off if Carter retired or was traded after '86. His OPS+'s with the Mets after '86, in chronological order, were 83, 93 and 51. He wasn't gonna make any more all-star teams unless he was gonna be selected on what he once was with the Expos. Which is like 80% of the case for retiring his Mets uni: what he did with the Expos.

A Boy Named Seo Sep 15 2021 01:28 PM Re: What about Javy?

Ceetar's loyal defense of Cano is one of the weirdest things on this forum to me. I agree that if the Mets have to pay for the guy regardless, it makes sense to see what they have, but they'd be wise to not bypass other second base options thinking that a 38-year old, twice busted cheater might be the guy at second, or even as a reliable DH. As the Mets undeniably have a character problem as an organization, I'd love it if they moved on from him regardless. BTW - his time raking in the Dominican League amounted to 6 games and 25 plate appearances.

Ceetar Sep 15 2021 01:59 PM Re: What about Javy?

that was just the winter league, he played some non-tracked leagues too if I recall. I just don't get extreme weightlifting as either particularly impactful on what he's done as a player nor as particularly detrimental to his character. But that's mostly an aside to the idea of just cutting him for the sake of cutting him. Also we still have McNeil. And J.D. Davis, and Alonso. And Lindor, and Smith. Smith, and to a lesser extent McNeil, may not be real 'answers' in the infield, but with two big holes in the outfield and a problem at catcher, it seems like expending effort on 2B might be wasted, even with a DH. I WOULD like them to consider bringing back Villar though, who's been real useful. I don't know if he'll be looking for a starting job or not.

A Boy Named Seo Sep 15 2021 02:18 PM Re: What about Javy?

Ceets going all Sean Spicer with “extreme weightlifting” lol

Ceetar Sep 15 2021 02:22 PM Re: What about Javy?

I mean, that's what the drug he was caught for does. it's a bodybuilding one. Doesn't even sound like a good baseball one, and reading up on it made me wonder if it contributed to his injuries.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 15 2021 02:32 PM Re: What about Javy? Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 15 2021 02:35 PM

Personally, I think the whole steroid ban is ridiculous. Players should be allowed to take whatever the hell they wanna take. Because what, having a physical natural genetic advantage is fair? Who are the fucked up moralists and ethicists who wrote those rules? Or to put it another way for the savage medieval barbarians in our society, its supposed to be fair when God gives Deion Sanders a body from Mount Olympus but almost everybody else gets bodies fit for an insurance salesman? That's fair? What the fuck is fair about that?

smg58 Sep 15 2021 02:33 PM Re: What about Javy?

I'm not for justifying overpaying to get Baez by overpaying to extend him. He had his one genuinely good offensive year under the tutelage of the hitting coach we fired in May. We are not going to get that from him. And as others have pointed out, his defense value is likely to vanish by the end of his contract. And it would take another fifteen home runs before the end of the season before I forget the thumbs down. Pass.

nymr83 Sep 15 2021 03:13 PM Re: What about Javy?

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=77841 time=1631719685 user_id=68] =Ceetar post_id=77824 time=1631711163 user_id=102] it's probably pretty rare for a hitter that established go from solidly above average to below replacement level in two years.

Gary Carter was the best catcher in baseball, hitting and defensively, in 1985 and was essentially done two years later. Darryl Strawberry is the Mets all time leader in HR's, a ROY winner and an MVP runner up with eight productive Mets seasons to his credit. A celebrated overall #1 Mets draft pick, Strawberry had three times the Mets career that Carter did. But Carter's uni has been in mothballs for 20 years and nobody talks about retiring Straw's #.



Keith Hernandez also had three times the Mets career that Carter did and is the greatest fielding first baseman in baseball history. And a Mets runner-up MVP, too, like Straw. But Carter's, not Hernandez's number should be retired. Wanna know why? Because Carter got here after instead of before Keith did. Carter, some Mets fans decided, was the last piece to the puzzle that would win another WS. Keith was merely some earlier piece to the puzzle. And so when Carter hit a dramatic game-winning HR in his first game as a Met on Opening Day, 1985, Mets fan decided right then and there that Carter had single-handedly delivered a WS title for the Mets that the Mets hadn't even won yet. Not just any old WS title, but a WS title that the Mets could not have won without Carter.


You are not wrong about the relative merits of Carter and Hernandez/Strawberry.



The issues with Strawberry are the drugs, the jail time, and the stint with the hated yankees taints his legacy here.



Was Carter being elevated above Keith before his tragic illness and death? Its hard to know now how much of the Carter love is because of his post career tragedy. Much like Kirby Puckett, a very borerline HOFer who got in partially on sympathy, does Carter get his number retired first for being dead?

Also - Will Hernandez's time come when he is at least no longer a club employee? To retire him for his playing AND broadcast careers?

Johnny Lunchbucket Sep 15 2021 04:07 PM Re: What about Javy?

Yes I think the way things are going Keith'll get in there based on combined service, but I've long felt the best way to have done this was to retire 86 for the whole lot of them and not walk around feeling like you dissed the wrong guy

batmagadanleadoff Sep 15 2021 05:26 PM Re: What about Javy?

=nymr83 post_id=77893 time=1631740433 user_id=54] The issues with Strawberry are .... [his] stint with the hated yankees ....

Stint with the Yankees? Jeez, it's a good thing Straw didn't manage the Yankees to 10 AL pennants and seven WS titles in 12 years. Then he's never get his Mets number retired.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 15 2021 05:31 PM Re: What about Javy?

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Yes I think the way things are going Keith'll get in there.... Keith'll end up in Cooperstown. He's the best fielding first baseman in baseball history. His defense was so revolutionary, so far ahead of its time, that watching Keith play first base for the first time must've been as eye-opening as seeing Jimi Hendrix play mod-England in 1966. If Keith never existed and came up today for the first time ever as a young twentysomething first baseman, he'd still be ahead of his time. His defense alone should've gotten him more than halfway into Cooperstown. Bill Mazeroski, ferchrissakes, is a HOF'er.

Centerfield Sep 16 2021 06:11 AM Re: What about Javy?

Has a higher career OPS than Derek Jeter.

Ceetar Sep 16 2021 06:17 AM Re: What about Javy?

and his drugs weren't performance enhancing!

kcmets Sep 16 2021 06:31 AM Re: What about Javy?

=Ceetar post_id=77949 time=1631794624 user_id=102]and his drugs weren't performance enhancing!

Well, that's debatable. I'd take up that debate, but I'm busy working

on material for my Friday IGT subject title.

Ceetar Sep 16 2021 06:51 AM Re: What about Javy?

=kcmets post_id=77950 time=1631795472 user_id=53] =Ceetar post_id=77949 time=1631794624 user_id=102]and his drugs weren't performance enhancing!

Well, that's debatable. I'd take up that debate, but I'm busy working

on material for my Friday IGT subject title.


it's probably just going to be some weird song reference that I won't get. meh.

kcmets Sep 16 2021 07:00 AM Re: What about Javy?

The grumpiness of this room is astounding sometimes. Cocaine is most certainly performance enhancing. Until you need more. And then more. And then more. I'm not starting a Friday IGT, I lost on Wednesday. It was a joke, since I took so much batmag shit yesterday.

Methead Sep 16 2021 07:28 AM Re: What about Javy?

=Centerfield post_id=77947 time=1631794289 user_id=65] Has a higher career OPS than Derek Jeter.

Now there's a little trivia nugget that I can bust out at parties.



Keith has more MVP awards too.

Ceetar Sep 16 2021 08:18 AM Re: What about Javy?

And Keith didn't have to have his friends sneak him women out the back door.

kcmets Sep 16 2021 08:38 AM Re: What about Javy? Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 16 2021 08:57 AM

Jeter's back door lol, it's right there on a tee and I can't. I just can't.

Ceetar Sep 16 2021 08:49 AM Re: What about Javy?

EXCR2TE

batmagadanleadoff Sep 22 2021 09:02 AM Re: What about Javy?

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: Yes I think the way things are going Keith'll get in there.... Keith'll end up in Cooperstown. He's the best fielding first baseman in baseball history. His defense was so revolutionary, so far ahead of its time, that watching Keith play first base for the first time must've been as eye-opening as seeing Jimi Hendrix play mod-England in 1966. If Keith never existed and came up today for the first time ever as a young twentysomething first baseman, he'd still be ahead of his time. His defense alone should've gotten him more than halfway into Cooperstown. Bill Mazeroski, ferchrissakes, is a HOF'er. https://www.amny.com/sports/no-question-why-keith-hernandez-belongs-in-hall-of-fame/ Check out Keith's "runs from fielding" stat. Keith's is the best in baseball history at his position. Meanwhile , Carter was the last piece to the puzzle. (If you ignore Teufel, Mitchell and Ojeda). Keith was only a regular piece to the puzzle. Carter got here after, instead of before Keith. And Carter had like a fifth of the Mets career Keith did. So let's retire Carter's Mets uni.

Edgy MD Sep 22 2021 09:08 AM Re: What about Javy?

In the second installment of Once Upon A Time In Queens, while they showed that crazy 3-5-4 DP against the Reds, the context is that they won despite the post-fight ejections forcing them to use Carter at third and McRoscoe in the outfield. Do any of the later episodes include a chapter specifically highlighting Hernandez' fielding contributions?

batmagadanleadoff Sep 22 2021 09:21 AM Re: What about Javy?

Edgy MD wrote: In the second installment of Once Upon A Time In Queens, while they showed that crazy e-5-4 DP against the Reds, the context is that they won despite the post-fight ejections forcing them to use Carter at third and McRoscoe in the outfield. Do any of the later episodes include a chapter specifically highlighting Hernandez' fielding contributions? I don't specifically remember, but I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say that Keith probably made highlight reel worthy mind-blowing defensive gems like that 3-5-4 DP every single week. He was transcendent on defense.

Edgy MD Sep 22 2021 09:30 AM Re: What about Javy?

Yes, he did. The other parts of that play make it stand out. Extra innings, post-fight, players out of position, the secondbaseman finishing the play. But Keith was just doing what Keith did.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 22 2021 10:05 AM Re: What about Javy?

Edgy MD wrote: Yes, he did. The other parts of that play make it stand out. Extra innings, post-fight, players out of position, the secondbaseman finishing the play. But Keith was just doing what Keith did. What's overlooked about that DP is how early Keith got to the bunt: the batter was still in the batter's box when Keith fielded the bunt. That allowed Carter to receive Keith's throw so early that Carter was, very calmly, able to take a full step towards first base before making his relay throw. This not only shortened the throw to first base, but also allowed Carter to avoid having to deal with a potential take-out slide from Buddy Bell, the oncoming baserunner.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 20 2021 07:20 AM Re: What about Javy?

Andy Martino is reporting that the Mets and Baez may reach a deal before Baez even hits free agency, as happened with Mike Piazza in 1998. Inside the remarkable turnaround for Javier Baez and Mets, who could agree on a deal quickly Andy Martino wrote: If the Mets make a serious offer early, Baez would be inclined to stay. Some free agencies, especially those of star players, drag on until March. This one does not have to.

Ceetar Oct 20 2021 08:32 AM Re: What about Javy?

Breaking: Guy will sign if he gets the offer he wants.

ashie62 Oct 20 2021 10:25 AM Re: What about Javy?

Thumbs up.

Edgy MD Oct 20 2021 07:35 PM Re: What about Javy?

What this buzz does is underscore how much the are up against the wall in trying not to put the cart before the horse, to mix a metaphor into an unsightly scene. This window of exclusivity is an opportunity and an asset you hate to just let slip away, but how do you make yet another commitment for $300 million + that locks the direction of the team more firmly in place before hiring the person that is supposed to steward that direction? It's not only unfair, but it's kind of unfair in a way that may turn off potential hires. It's just kind of reckless. On the other hand, how long can you operate on automation, performing only the most perfunctory of player transactions, while you have to hire a president of baseball operations, a general manager (presumably), an assistant general manager (less presumably, but still) and a field manager? They also need to assemble the lion's share of the coaching staff. Obviously, a team has to step on the gas with player decisions before all of that can be done, but they have to wait until at least some of that is done, and, unfortunately, wait until the post-season is over to really do most of it with the required formality. It's a real delicate balance. It's a delicate balance in being up up against the wall in trying not to put the cart before the horse.

kcmets Oct 21 2021 08:08 AM Re: What about Javy?

Cart and horse positioning being said, having a Lindor/Baez up-the-middle sewn up for the long-term is just one less thing a new GM (or whatever they want to call him/her these days) has to worry about and address.

Edgy MD Oct 21 2021 09:25 AM Re: What about Javy?

Or, if it's boondoggle, it's one more thing to worry about and address.

kcmets Oct 21 2021 09:30 AM Re: What about Javy?

Don't be throwing the baby out with the bathwater! (been dying to whip that out all morning)

duan Oct 21 2021 09:59 AM Re: What about Javy?

=Ceetar post_id=80019 time=1634740340 user_id=102] Breaking: Guy will sign if he gets the offer he wants.

So what does a Javy Baez pre free agency negotiating window offer look like to you?

No dominos have fallen - so you don't get to compare - you're going with your gut about market and the CBA -

Edgy MD Oct 21 2021 10:55 AM Re: What about Javy?

Well, with this offseason market not having unfolded at all, yet, the starting point would have to be the Lindor deal.

Ceetar Oct 21 2021 11:08 AM Re: What about Javy?

=duan post_id=80045 time=1634831993 user_id=99] =Ceetar post_id=80019 time=1634740340 user_id=102] Breaking: Guy will sign if he gets the offer he wants.

So what does a Javy Baez pre free agency negotiating window offer look like to you?

No dominos have fallen - so you don't get to compare - you're going with your gut about market and the CBA -


to me? I dunno, offer him 3/30. I'd rather sign different players that get on base personally. If the Mets want him to NOT go to market I assume it's gonna have to be like 5/100.

duan Oct 21 2021 12:13 PM Re: What about Javy?

Well safe to say 3 years at 10 million per year isn't signing him in a million years. I'd be intrigued if 5 x 20 would do it. Not saying that the Mets should go for that but if your Javy Baez you'd definitely give it a fair bit of consideration

Fman99 Oct 21 2021 12:57 PM Re: What about Javy?

I think he stays for an offer in the ballpark of 5-6 years at 20-25 mil per. That's my guess.

nymr83 Oct 21 2021 02:29 PM Re: What about Javy?

The Mets do have at least one big incentive to bring back Baez, Stroman, and Conforto - If the Mets sign someone else's free agent who received a qualifying offer, they lose their second pick in the draft. Not their second round pick, but their second first round pick (they have the compensation pick for the Rocker fiasco)

Benjamin Grimm Oct 21 2021 02:34 PM Re: What about Javy?

But at least in Conforto's case, if they don't sign him, they'll get someone else's pick, right? (Assuming he receives and declines a QO.)

Edgy MD Oct 21 2021 03:56 PM Re: What about Javy?

I think a qualified offer being tendered to and accepted by Conforto is probably as close to a certainty as there might be. It makes more than a little sense for both sides. Makes a lot of sense for the Syndergaard scenario to play out that way as well.

duan Oct 21 2021 04:12 PM Re: What about Javy?

But that Conforto comp pick is going to be in the 30s the pick they lose is the 14th one. That's a big difference

duan Oct 21 2021 04:14 PM Re: What about Javy?

Benjamin Grimm wrote: But at least in Conforto's case, if they don't sign him, they'll get someone else's pick, right? (Assuming he receives and declines a QO.) They don't get their pick - just a comp pick- the team who sign the player lose their 2nd pick - normally that's in the second round but because of the Kunze Rocker clusterfuck ours is the 14th

Edgy MD Oct 21 2021 04:27 PM Re: What about Javy?

Kunze Rocker Clusterfuck sounds like a buzzy new band on the cover of Hot Press.

Frayed Knot Oct 21 2021 04:27 PM Re: What about Javy?

Edgy MD wrote: Well, with this offseason market not having unfolded at all, yet, the starting point would have to be the Lindor deal. Anything over half the Lindor deal is my ending point for Baez. The most enduring point from 'Moneyball', IMO, was the idea that it's easier to replace the player you failed to sign than it is to make up for the one you sign at the wrong price. With the glut of top shortstops on the market this off-season it may very well turn out that we were too quick to jump on Lindor and that the players given up plus the length of the deal will combine to make it too high a price to pay for what we ultimately get. Don't double down on it by thinking that Javy is a unique 'must get'.

Fman99 Oct 21 2021 07:24 PM Re: What about Javy?

Edgy MD wrote: I think a qualified offer being tendered to and accepted by Conforto is probably as close to a certainty as there might be. It makes more than a little sense for both sides. Makes a lot of sense for the Syndergaard scenario to play out that way as well. For Thor, yes, agreed. The broadcasters seemed to think that Conforto had closed out his time as a Met. I would think he will get the QO but I would be shocked if he accepted it. He's destined to go to some team I hate and be fantastic and make us all rue the day (the Zack Wheeler effect).

Edgy MD Oct 21 2021 07:30 PM Re: What about Javy?

As for Conforto, I wouldn't be shocked. As for Baez, I agree. I didn't mean to suggest that he should get anything like Lindor's deal. I don't think Lindor should get Lindor's deal.

Frayed Knot Oct 21 2021 08:27 PM Re: What about Javy?

It all depends on whether they decide they need to keep Baez and then spend the negotiating process debating how high and how long the price tag will be, or whether they negotiate as part of reaching a decision as to signing him or not. Too often the previous administration-- not just the Pons but also those who worked for them -- followed the former strategy rather than the latter.

Ceetar Oct 22 2021 06:52 AM Re: What about Javy?

The Mets do have at least one big incentive to bring back Baez, Stroman, and Conforto - If the Mets sign someone else's free agent who received a qualifying offer, they lose their second pick in the draft. Not their second round pick, but their second first round pick (they have the compensation pick for the Rocker fiasco) This is extremely disturbing, as at least Cohen is on record publicly talking about "the value" of the pick, and the justification for not signing the guy last year. If you're on that train, it seems you'd have to at least be considering NOT signing someone that would cost that pick. Which is problematic given how many holes the Mets have, and doubly so if the solution is just give Javy a few extra million to save that pick evne though you need better players.

nymr83 Oct 22 2021 09:29 AM Re: What about Javy?

Yeah, there are two caveats - 1) Some guys weren't eligible for qualifying offers - looking at you, Kris Bryant! 2) the new CBA could change all of this