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Post-mortem 2021

Frayed Knot Oct 04 2021 06:34 PM

Lots of blame to go around as always. But maybe an attempt to prioritize the reasons why the (reasonably) high hopes of March/April turned into a second half collapse from a perch which was never all that high to begin with [10 G over .500 in mid-June] So with the idea that these are reasons rather than excuses (since every team had their issues as well and more than half of them finished with better records than us) throw out your candidate for 2021's biggest culprit. I'll kick it off with the starters. Everyone Knew that the Mets would have good starting pitching this year ... and for a while there, close to half a season, they did. But ultimately a year which had, not just a best-case scenario, but a realistic chance of getting 90+ starts from deGrom, Syndergaard, Carrasco, and David Peterson (remember him?) instead got a grand total of 41 JdG - realistic expectation of 30 starts, got 15 Peterson - call it no more than 25 since it would be his first full year, got 15 Carrasco - again I topped him off short of a full season due to past issues, but still got only 11 Thor - conservatively expected 12, maybe even 15, but effectively got none even though technically two And of course it's not just the ones those guys missed -- especially since neither Carrasco not Peterson were very good -- but of how many of those phantom starts not taken by the core group had to be covered by call-ups & backups. As it turned out we got better than expected results from Megill, but garbage and/or no-shows from Eickoff (4), Lucchesi (8), and Yamamoto (1). And then there were the 'bullpen' games as the likes of Loup, Castro, Drew Smith, Gsellman, Trevor Williams, and Sean Reid-Foley (among others) all started at various times.

Edgy MD Oct 04 2021 06:54 PM Re: Post-mortem 2021

The harsh reality is that the team was living on borrowed time, and we mostly knew it, but lived the illusion while it lasted. From the beginning, the team didn't hit. The middle third of the season with the backup lineup, the team was able to hang in there because the pitchers were keeping them in the game every single night, and a couple of the benchies were stepping up. The great hope was that the original lineup would return to health, find their team in first place, and start hitting like the start of the season didn't happen. That hope didn't come to fruition, and when Stroman, Walker, and Megill fell to earth, nothing was there to lift them. Mostly consistent work from the bullpen, with different guys peaking at different times, but bullpen games are murder.

Johnny Lunchbucket Oct 04 2021 09:10 PM Re: Post-mortem 2021 Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 05 2021 07:36 AM

Lindor didn't get along with McNeil and the camaraderie of of the 2020 team was upset by that new dynamic.. Lindor got injured. A lack of front office brain power caught up with them at the trade deadline and teams like the phillies and the braves helped themselves considerably more than the mets did. The courage or foolishness it may have taken to acquire a Duvall or Kyle Gibson didn't materialize and instead it became an attempt to mollify a brooding Lindor.

duan Oct 05 2021 03:50 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

also think the DeGrom injury simply can't be over-stated. The cascade from it caused every 2nd half start to feel 'pressured'. I know ONE player - especially a pitcher - shouldn't be that important, but look at how good he was vs what every other team had.

Edgy MD Oct 05 2021 07:31 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

Yeah, picking up his slack proved fruitless.

smg58 Oct 05 2021 09:29 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

Too many injuries. Only Alonso among the everyday players had a fully healthy season. And of the others, only Nimmo played to realistic expectations when he did suit up. A manager and a GM who consistently acted like deer in the headlights. The character issues. Baez and Lindor get a big thumbs down. Cohen kept saying he was going to emphasize character, but his top hire Alderson never got the memo. Conducting an experiment to see how hard DeGrom could throw before his arm gave out, and expecting a different result than DeGrom's arm giving out.

TransMonk Oct 05 2021 09:44 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

Conducting an experiment to see how hard DeGrom could throw before his arm gave out, and expecting a different result than DeGrom's arm giving out. This is my biggest concern going forward. They went several starts basically saying "there's nothing to see here" while deGrom was bowing out of games early and eventually missed nearly half the season. Either they knew what was going on and weren't straight with the fan base OR they didn't know what was going on with the injury and were flying blind on how to handle the situation. Either way, it's a red flag.

Edgy MD Oct 05 2021 09:44 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

We had a GM?

Chad ochoseis Oct 05 2021 10:18 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

Too many injuries. Only Alonso among the everyday players had a fully healthy season. And of the others, only Nimmo played to realistic expectations when he did suit up. Funny thing is that other than JdG, the team was pretty healthy in August and September. The Mets did much better when they were being carried by the _illar brothers and a bunch of guys named Joneshwy. For the whole summer, it was "hold on until Lindor starts hitting and the team gets healthy". Then Lindor started hitting, the team got healthy, and we sucked. I'm completely stumped. Rojas made some questionable decisions, but we would have been a .500ish team with the ghosts of Connie Mack, John McGraw, and Gil in the dugout. A bunch of great hitters - looking at Conforto, Smitty, and McNeil - weren't just off this year. They were abysmal. McCann, too, though he wasn't there for his bat. If they'd even been just OK, the team would have been competitive.

Edgy MD Oct 05 2021 10:21 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

Chad ochoseis wrote: A bunch of great hitters - looking at Conforto, Smitty, and McNeil - weren't just off this year. They were abysmal. McCann, too, though he wasn't there for his bat. If they'd even been just OK, the team would have been competitive. Worth noting that you were able to make this point without even mentioning Francisco Lindor.

Chad ochoseis Oct 05 2021 10:23 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

Lindor was OK for the second half, though still not the guy we paid $341M for.

Ceetar Oct 05 2021 10:44 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

Chad ochoseis wrote: Lindor was OK for the second half, though still not the guy we paid $341M for. he had a 118 wRC+ in the second half. He has a career 117 wRC+. Only 158 PA though. He just had a slow start. It's a game of inches as they say. Early on the pitching was ON, particularly because of deGrom, and the stunted offense was just good enough, and the bullpen just good enough, to hold those leads. Some of that was probably just luck, they put the right relievers in. They DIDN'T give up the home runs. (did the ball change? you never know with this stuff) Diaz for example, had pretty consistent numbers, but he didn't give up any home runs in the first half, and gave up a few in the second half. First half splits .219/.313/.266 and second half .161/.271/.312. And just due to luck of timing (or if you want to get into his 'clutchness or whatever', I don't) some of those home runs tied the game, or gave it up. The blueprint for success was there at the trading deadline though, and they just didn't follow through. Rojas didn't have the players to be successful and didn't maximize what he had, and that made it worse. It's absurd to plan to play Kevin Pillar who doesn't get on base AND make a guy like Baez, who doesn't get on base enough, your acquisition.

Edgy MD Oct 05 2021 10:54 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

Chad ochoseis wrote: Lindor was OK for the second half, though still not the guy we paid $341M for. Sure he was OK, relative to several other positions. But he was perhaps the 11th best shortstop in the National League, and that's still not getting it done.

Lefty Specialist Oct 05 2021 04:43 PM Re: Post-mortem 2021

Conducting an experiment to see how hard DeGrom could throw before his arm gave out, and expecting a different result than DeGrom's arm giving out. This is my biggest concern going forward. They went several starts basically saying "there's nothing to see here" while deGrom was bowing out of games early and eventually missed nearly half the season. Either they knew what was going on and weren't straight with the fan base OR they didn't know what was going on with the injury and were flying blind on how to handle the situation. Either way, it's a red flag. Bingo. We still don't know what the real issue was with deGrom. They teased us with the possibility of him starting again ("he threw a bullpen session yesterday and felt fine.") for the last few months of the season, but it never materialized. Without knowing his status, it's impossible to plan out what this team will look like next year. Sticky stuff played a role, as it obviously affected Walker- he fell off the table in the second half after they announced they'd be checking. Which Taijuan will they get next year? Did Carrasco come back too early from injury or is he just a mediocre pitcher now? Stroman pitched well enough that he'll get good offers elsewhere. And Syndergaard will probably get the QO but what can you reasonably expect from him even if he stays? So many questions, and that's just the starting staff.

Frayed Knot Oct 05 2021 04:52 PM Re: Post-mortem 2021

Lindor by himself was my #2 culprit. His OPS in 2021 was a full 100 points off his prior career mark [OPS+ = 97, down from 118] If it's any consolation, Beltran had a very similar lackluster first season in Queens and turned out to be fine (when he was healthy anyway) On the other hand, Beltran didn't miss 1/4 season in his first year and was known to be (or claimed to be) a leader among players, particularly younger ones, rather than getting into fights with one then complaining about the fans (in code) while barely acknowledging that either was a problem. That Conforto - 1/4 season missed, 114 points off career OPS, Smith - down 144 OPS points and effectively benched by September; McNeil - 1/4 season missed and also 144 OPS points dropped and Nimmo/JDD (barely 162 games played combined) weren't around to pick up even some of the slack didn't help, but it all centers around the high-priced import who needed to be considerably better.

Fman99 Oct 05 2021 06:07 PM Re: Post-mortem 2021

They all slurped from the same giant ass of bad baseball. Bunch of slurpers.

G-Fafif Oct 05 2021 07:40 PM Re: Post-mortem 2021

They held a good record until they didn't. They held first place until they didn't. They finished eight games under .500, falling five games behind the runner-up Phillies and 11½ in back of the yet again division champion Braves. Continued exposure to these Mets over at least the final two months of this season, maybe all six months of it, renders these results utterly unsurprising. When the club was performing small miracles, it was via the wizardry of understudies to the original Bench Mob. Well, we reasoned, if we can stay aloft on the wings of the Mazeikas, McKinneys and Maybins, just wait until the REAL Mets come back! The Real Mets trickled into the lineup as summer heated up and the Real Mets wilted. Mind you, the C-team that kept us going was not sustainable as a unit. I developed one of those “you know who my favorite player is right now?” crushes on Jose Peraza for a couple of weeks, but Jose Peraza hit .204. When the stretch of not believing how much we'd gotten out of the contingency corps was over, we drifted toward not believing how little we were getting out of the main cast. So much of August and September, for me, became about inspecting the batting order and wondering how the hell we were doing this badly. Isn't Conforto better than this? Isn't Lindor better than this? Isn't McNeil? And so on. Average out all you could possibly have hoped to have gotten from the backups and the backups' backups; add in all you didn't get from the front-facing Mets; and toss in the usual bout of groping for an identity at the season's start (we were 9-11 as of April 30), and a final record of 77-85 resembles something barely above the minimum you could have expected. I just looked up the vaunted PECOTA projections for this season. Its formula pegged the 2021 Mets as finishing first, with a record of 96-66. I'm almost done laughing about it myself. Knowing what we know now, what addled algorithm, no matter how catchy its acronym, picks this team to go 96-66? Knowing what we knew then, why did we think these Mets resembled anybody eligible to be playing beyond October 3? Plummeting 18 games from your high-water mark and 16½ games in the standings tends to disappoint. But it didn't devastate, exactly, did it? That's because, as I personally began to come to grips with in early August, these Mets were never that good to begin with, with the beginning of “begin with” dating to our hopes being raised by an invigorating second half of 2019. That team's core was this team's core, except this team's core was enhanced by the presence of Francisco Lindor and, later, Javy Baez. This team's core, however, delivered next to nothing down the stretch. There were a few bodice-rippers, so to speak, when the walkoffs were wild, the jerseys came off and the stimulation shot through the ceiling for a day or two. But then it was back to the doldrums of what the Mets have been since baseball came out of COVID hibernation in July of 2020. http://www.faithandfearinflushing.com/2021/10/04/barely-above-the-minimum/

Lefty Specialist Oct 06 2021 06:10 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

We were always continually amazed that they were in first ("Yeah they lost last night but so did the Braves, Phillies and Nats"). It wasn't sustainable, and we all kind of knew it. At some point another team would kick it in gear and make a run. But the Mets didn't have that gear. Using the trade deadline to get an infielder you didn't need to make Lindor happy was not a good use of resources. The Braves and Phillies at least addressed their needs, and the Nats tore it down. This wasn't an especially surprising collapse, but it sucked just the same.

Centerfield Oct 06 2021 07:25 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

Lindor had an .813 OPS the second half, which is fine. Not great, but fine, and just a touch under his career totals. It is, however, his second straight down year. So you start to wonder. Agree that he needed to be better. Conforto, McNeil and Smith were terrible. The idea that any one of them would be that bad wasn't really on the radar. All three? Unthinkable. JD was hurt, McCann's 2020 ended up being a mirage. That's 6 out of 8 position players that underperformed. You're not having a good year when that happens. The rotation was hit with bad luck. deGrom getting hurt. Carrasco getting hurt, then sucking. Noah getting delayed. Bullpen was pretty good though.

Chad ochoseis Oct 06 2021 07:33 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

Frayed Knot wrote: If it's any consolation, Beltran had a very similar lackluster first season in Queens and turned out to be fine (when he was healthy anyway) On the other hand, Beltran didn't miss 1/4 season in his first year and was known to be (or claimed to be) a leader among players, particularly younger ones, rather than getting into fights with one then complaining about the fans (in code) while barely acknowledging that either was a problem. Beltran actually bitched about the fans quite a bit his first season, IIRC. Then he became the Beltran we paid for and more, and all was forgotten. Hopefully the same will happen with Lindor.

G-Fafif Oct 08 2021 05:12 PM Re: Post-mortem 2021

Mets went 5-22 vs. eventual playoff teams over their final 48 games. Hard to believe we had to wonder when to give up on them.

Fman99 Oct 08 2021 05:24 PM Re: Post-mortem 2021

I still think they can make this year's playoffs. It's a long shot, I know, but...

DocTee Oct 08 2021 06:03 PM Re: Post-mortem 2021

It's easy to point to the 2-11 run against LAD and SFG as the death-knell, but we were competitive in almost all of those games. Many one-run affairs in that stretch. What killed me was their performance against the Pirates--the PIRATES--in the games before and after the ASG. You HAVE to beat up on the cellar-dwellers if you plan to contend. That showed me this team was more sizzle than steak.

Johnny Lunchbucket Oct 08 2021 10:06 PM Re: Post-mortem 2021

I mean, it was clear to me the most important thing to the Mets in the midst of the Pirates run was whether Alonso could win a meaningless skills competition on an off-day. They never appeared to have their priorities or enough urgency day to day. You cannot risk burning too hot over a season but this team was remarkably lukewarm.

MFS62 Oct 09 2021 11:54 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

The autopsy results are in. Others have identified general symptoms and possible causes: Injuries to certain players, Underperforming, when compared to prior years, Lack of significant additions, Early season weather leading to an unusual number of make-up games. But the patient could have overcome them. Throughout the year, we frequently noted that a few key hits or key plays would have won games the Mets ultimately lost. It might have been as many as 10, thereby turning a losing season into a playoff competitive season. So, the actual cause of the demise of the 2021 Mets was situational sports dysphagia. They choked. And it was a team effort. Later

ashie62 Oct 11 2021 04:45 PM Re: Post-mortem 2021

Without deGrom this team wasn't going anywhere. On the west coast horror trip Alonso was the only Met who hit a lick.

kcmets Oct 11 2021 06:39 PM Re: Post-mortem 2021

A guy with a Seaver avatar should well know a team can still suck with one stud pitcher every five days. And the Mets didn't hit or score when he pitched anyways. The offense with men on (when they managed to get men on) sucked in 2021. A lot!

Edgy MD Oct 12 2021 08:38 AM Re: Post-mortem 2021

It was weird how disappointed I'd be when a guy would hit a single with a runner on second and no outs, or a double with a runner on first and no outs, and DiSarcina would hold the runner. In almost every case, he was making the generally right call. Even if the chance of him scoring was better than 50%, the runner would have to have something close to a standup guarantee to send him with no outs. But as soon as the runner came to a halt, it was hard to get past the notion that our scoring chances had died instantly. Late in the season, when DiSarcina sent Pete Alonso to his doom trying to score from second on a single, i could see the point he had reached.