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Mets "What ifs"

Marshmallowmilkshake Jan 11 2022 12:47 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 11 2022 01:42 PM

Didn't want to hijack the Fred Lynn thread. But Mike Silva's podcast had a similar vibe to it, with the writer of Mets Rewind talking about various "What ifs" in Mets history, and how the moves made or not made have ripples that extend for years. And, of course, this is all in hindsight. He had the usual stuff -- the Seaver, Ryan, Otis trades, what if Hodges doesn't pass away, pulling Gooden in the 1988 NLCS. But one that kind of stuck with me: What the ARod thing had not fallen apart with the 24-and-1 nonsense, and if they had signed him? Does he still get involved with the PEDs? I don't know if that was in Seattle or whether he started in Texas. Does that team sustain the run with Piazza? They likely dodge the whole Mo Vaughn thing. Do they still get Pedro and Beltran and Los Mets? I had not thought about any of that before. Silva can be a tough listen, but he's better when he has a guest and this one was pretty good.

roger_that Jan 11 2022 01:02 PM Re: Mets "What ifs"

It's OK with me if we combine these threads. I think the key unknown here is money. The elephant in the room in the Lynn thing was raised by Frank Cashen in the article: do they want to trade all of their best young players for someone who has only one year left on his contract, to which the answer is DUH. Of course you don't. But if you can sign him to a long-term deal for superstar money as a condition of pulling the trigger, then also DUH! Of course you pull it. The 1983 pre-Straw/Mex/Doc/Kid Mets weren't going anywhere, Lynn or no Lynn. Same with Arod. Does signing him mean they're just getting started with big contracts or does it mean "OK we've spent our budget for the foreseeable future. Let's see if this one big signing solves all our problems from this point forward." Personally, I don't think their mentality was to sign up a limitless number of stars. To the contrary, I think the 1980s Mets were committed to their kids coming through, which they did--Mookie, Dykstra, Backman, Doc, Straw, Darling, Sid, Mitch, McDowell, all were cheap enough and good enough that they were able to sign a few vets to big money deals and become a winning team. Without the kids coming through huge, they would have had an impressive payroll but not much in the way of results.

MFS62 Jan 11 2022 03:14 PM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Since there was no draft in those days, what if the Mets had out-bid Houston and signed Rusty Staub instead of Ed Kranepool? What would this site be called? Later

kcmets Jan 11 2022 04:11 PM Re: Mets "What ifs"

=MFS62 post_id=84396 time=1641939294 user_id=60]What would this site be called?

Le Grand Orangutan Forum?

roger_that Jan 11 2022 04:47 PM Re: Mets "What ifs"

=roger_that post_id=84389 time=1641931379 user_id=128] I don't think their mentality was to sign up a limitless number of stars.

Let me rephrase this, lest I be accused of advocating that they should have literally signed every free-agent on the market.



Let's assume that the kids didn't work out: Doc blows his arm out five games into his rookie season, Darryl never gets his strikeouts below 200 or his batting average above .200, Mookie never comes back from eye injury, McDowell burns his pitching hand off in a tragic hotfoot accident, etc. and the whole team is the vets they can sign as free agents or persuade Whitey Herzog to hand them on a platter. Are they going to double-down on the free agent signings until the team is able to contend?



Of course not. Wilpon/Doubleday were not Steinbrenner. They're going to tuck their tail between their legs and tell you that each succeeding group of inexpensive kids are going to be stars, until that actually happens. No way are Fred and Nelson going to keep pouring the money into a bottomless bucket like George would have and did. Whole different mental approach.



How can I be so sure? Because they cut Ray Knight after the 1986 season. To my mind, they had a moral obligation to reward Ray even if they had a third baseman in HoJo who was promising to become a star for less money. For the Yankees, keeping Knight would have been a no-brainer, even if they were going to sit him on the bench for most of the two years he wanted.



That was the lesson I drew from the 30-for-30 show, anyway.

stevejrogers Jan 11 2022 05:02 PM Re: Mets "What ifs"

=kcmets post_id=84398 time=1641942675 user_id=53] =MFS62 post_id=84396 time=1641939294 user_id=60]What would this site be called?

Le Grand Orangutan Forum?


Rusty's On The Web?

Edgy MD Jan 11 2022 07:10 PM Re: Mets "What ifs"

The Mets didn't cut Ray Knight. He was a free agent, and they offered him more money and years than any other team did, despite the fact that they had multiple attractive (better, to my mind) options at third.

roger_that Jan 12 2022 05:47 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

I thought the Orioles offered him better. I'll check the 30-for-30 again, and Pearlman's book. That's certainly what I remember him bitching about

roger_that Jan 12 2022 06:14 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Did come across this from Mets Memories on the UMDB, 2012: "Knight just said on a radio interview on WFAN that he was never offered $800K. He said he made $530K and they offered him another year at $535K. He said he told them that he just wanted a 2-year deal and they told him that "it's not going to happen." He said for years he's been reading that he turned down $800K" And of course "cut" is just shorthand--if he wasn't a free agent, they wouldn't have released him and still paid him. I thought that was understood. Apparently not. I'll spell it out for you next time.

Frayed Knot Jan 12 2022 06:31 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Ray Knight occupies a weird niche in NYM fandom. - came over in mid-'84 where he hit .280 but with almost no power for a corner position; 4 2Bs, 1 HR [IsoP = .075] over 100 PAs - then proceeded to go .218/.252/.328 (OPS+ = 62) as a part-time player (290 PAs) in '85, much to the displeasure of more than a few fans - much better season in '86 (OPS+ = 115) but much of that was early (April was his best month, followed by May) and he finished 12th on the team in WAR. - then he was WS MVP although even that was more a case of being the best from a pack where none of the more likely suspects really distinguished themselves: 9 hits (7 singles) over 6 games isn't quite a case of being the tallest midget in the circus but it was more a good, not a great series, where there were no great ones. - at that point he was 34 y/o and, after the non-signing, went on to have two awful seasons for two awful teams before calling it a career. So he was a very good Met for like two months plus a week (out of nearly two seasons and a half) and yet a sizable portion of NYM fans feel that his non-retention was an obvious mistake and moaned about the loss of him well into the early '90s citing his (and Backman's) absences -- Years after both had retired!! -- as key reasons for the decline of the club and lack of more WS rings: y'know, the loss of grit and leadership and all that stuff (Backman wasn't any good at his future stops either). But none of that stopped the notion that both somehow would have remained the ballplayers they (briefly) were had only they stayed in Queens. HoJo, meanwhile, spent the net five seasons averaging a 135 OPS+ as a full-time player. (Knight as a NYM: OPS+ = 97) My recollection of the winter '86/'87 negotiations is that Knight wanted more than one year which Cashen (rightly IMO) wouldn't give him. Ray has since denied asking for more than one but that might be either convenient after-the-fact memory or maybe he wasn't all that up on what his agent was saying to the club. oe: cross-oosted on that final part with roger_that

stevejrogers Jan 12 2022 10:05 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Kevin Mitchell for Kevin McReynolds is also up there in the ire of fans who bemoan the movement of “gritty utility grinders” in favor of boring and vanilla “mercenaries.” While McReynolds' comments about can't waiting for hunting/fishing season activities after a season ended, compounded with the future knowledge that Mitch was sent packing due to supposed influence on Doc and Straw, and both wound up continuing their off-field issues, probably are good points in their favor, it taking a move out of San Francisco for Mitchell to have a One Year Wonder career year, followed by settling into a steady and decent big league career probably suggests the McReynolds deal was better overall for the Mets.

Benjamin Grimm Jan 12 2022 10:08 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

I'm really surprised by the persistence of the narrative about how the Mets screwed up by not keeping Ray Knight. He had a mediocre year with Baltimore in 1987 and a terrible year with Detroit in 1988, and then he was done.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 12 2022 10:12 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Frayed Knot wrote: - much better season in '86 (OPS+ = 115) but much of that was early (April was his best month, followed by May) and he finished 12th on the team in WAR. [***] So he was a very good Met for like two months plus a week (out of nearly two seasons and a half) and yet a sizable portion of NYM fans feel that his non-retention was When it comes to Knight's '86 season, you have to look at the splits. Otherwise you're missing the point. Against lefties in '86, Knight was like Ted Williams. If Knight could've played the entire season against nothing but lefties, he would've been the runaway MVP. He was a lefty crushing monster that year.

stevejrogers Jan 12 2022 11:09 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I'm really surprised by the persistence of the narrative about how the Mets screwed up by not keeping Ray Knight. He had a mediocre year with Baltimore in 1987 and a terrible year with Detroit in 1988, and then he was done. Especially when I'd imagine Howard Johnson winds up in many of their conversations about the best third baseman in team history. A conversation that you'd get laughed out of if you bring Knight into it!

Frayed Knot Jan 12 2022 11:37 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=84463 time=1642007523 user_id=68] When it comes to Knight's '86 season, you have to look at the splits.. Against lefties in '86, Knight was like Ted Williams. ... He was a lefty crushing monster that year.

Fine, that makes him Scott Hairston

roger_that Jan 12 2022 11:41 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

I'm a big HoJo fan, and I was then even more so. This ire is about their lack of loyalty and sentimentality and recognition of what he'd done for the Mets in 1986. I think they should have kept him to play third when Hojo needed a rest, or was playing short, or when Keith needed a break, or when either of them was hurt, and as their primary pinchhitter against lefties. Sure, they would have been overpaying for productivity on the field, but not very much, and it would have done a lot for team spirit, cohesiveness, etc. They could have even made him a player-coach to ease the indignity of losing his starting job. But they chose not to. In retrospect, an error, I think.

Frayed Knot Jan 12 2022 11:46 AM Re: Mets "What ifs" Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jan 12 2022 11:49 AM

But, again, they didn't say "Get Out, we hate you", and neither am I. They offered to keep him at a certain number and he chose --whether over dollars, years, or respect -- not to take it. I would have been fine with him on the '87, although as that season went he would have been most useful if he could fill in on the mound.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 12 2022 11:49 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Frayed Knot wrote: =batmagadanleadoff post_id=84463 time=1642007523 user_id=68] When it comes to Knight's '86 season, you have to look at the splits.. Against lefties in '86, Knight was like Ted Williams. ... He was a lefty crushing monster that year. Fine, that makes him Scott Hairston

I don't get the reference.



Also, when did Hairston ever have a season where he hit lefties even remotely as awesome as Knight did in '86?

Frayed Knot Jan 12 2022 11:51 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

I remember Hairston torching LHPs during his NYM tenure ... although I didn't look up any numbers and maybe they don't back me up.

batmagadanleadoff Jan 12 2022 11:53 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

=roger_that post_id=84473 time=1642012865 user_id=128] I'm a big HoJo fan, and I was then even more so. This ire is about their lack of loyalty and sentimentality and recognition of what he'd done for the Mets in 1986. I think they should have kept him to play third when Hojo needed a rest, or was playing short, or when Keith needed a break, or when either of them was hurt, and as their primary pinchhitter against lefties. Sure, they would have been overpaying for productivity on the field, but not very much, and it would have done a lot for team spirit, cohesiveness, etc. They could have even made him a player-coach to ease the indignity of losing his starting job. But they chose not to. In retrospect, an error, I think.

All this Knight stuff and it gets lost in the sauce whether they should've kept Mitchell. This infatuation with McReynolds coupled with the org's desire to sanitize the clubhouse by getting rid of the perceived bad characters who [lol] were supposed to be bad influences on Doc and Darryl.

roger_that Jan 12 2022 11:56 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

In retrospect a horrible, franchise-wrecking error of colossal proportions. I don't remember any outcry at the time. There were those who compared getting McReynolds to the Yankees getting Roger Maris in 1959.

Johnny Lunchbucket Jan 12 2022 12:43 PM Re: Mets "What ifs"

McReynolds flattening Mike Scioscia in Game 1 of the 88 playoffs is an underadmired moment in club history

Edgy MD Jan 12 2022 01:18 PM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Did come across this from Mets Memories on the UMDB, 2012: "] In retrospect a horrible, franchise-wrecking error of colossal proportions. I don't remember any outcry at the time. There were those who compared getting McReynolds to the Yankees getting Roger Maris in 1959. Who were these folks?

roger_that Jan 12 2022 01:45 PM Re: Mets "What ifs"

I'll need to find my datebook from 1986 to see where I took notes on what Mets fans were saying, and when, and what their full names and current contact info is for ya. I'll get right on that.

Edgy MD Jan 12 2022 02:43 PM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Is this sarcasm to any end? I don't think that was an unreasonable inquiry.

Frayed Knot Jan 12 2022 06:22 PM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Was there ever any definitive word that Mitchell was dealt for the 'bad influence' card or was that just one of those things that became a "fact" because people assumed it to be a fact even though there was nothing factual about it? The bigger part of the story was that Joe McIlvane thought McReynolds to be the best amateur player he ever scouted. So when he saw a chance to get him he pounced and you have to give up to get so the five years of control Mitchell was attractive to the always cash-strapped Padres. The bad influence story reminds me of the one where they didn't draft Reggie Jackson because they didn't like that he had a white (actually Mexican) girlfriend. That attitude may have fit the outlook of the conservative NYM ownership at the time and, like the Kevin Mitchell story, it might even be true. But the sole source of that one seems to be Jackson himself (he claims his college coach told his such) and since Reggie is only lying when his lips are moving pardon me if I'm not going to take it as gospel. I don't even think there was a particular source of the Mitchell story other than it seemed like it might be true so was treated as if it were.

stevejrogers Jan 12 2022 06:56 PM Re: Mets "What ifs"

[url] https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1987-04-05-sp-505-story.html?_amp=true From the time Gooden checked into rehab, April of 1987 [BLOCKQUOTE] “How could I have been a bad influence? I didn't see the guy off the field,” Mitchell said here Saturday. “I was just a rookie. I probably hung out more with Straw (outfielder Darryl Strawberry), and I wasn't around either guy off the field. That (accusation) is stupid.” An article in the Friday editions of Newsday, a New York-area newspaper, reported that several unnamed Met players suspected that Mitchell was traded because of his influence on Gooden[/BLOCKQUOTE] Okay, clearly “unnamed sources speculate” so further down the Google rabbit hole… A 2009 NY Daily News piece suggests Mitch is going the Reggie route in treating it as Gospel [url] https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/mets-slugger-kevin-mitchell-fighting-good-fight-article-1.428143?outputType=amp [BLOCKQUOTE] He still believes his exit from New York - as part of the December, 1986, trade for Kevin McReynolds about two months after Mitchell got a vital 10th-inning hit to keep the Game 6 rally going against Boston in the World Series - came because the Mets thought he was a bad influence on Gooden and Darryl Strawberry. "In New York, they used me as a scapegoat for them," Mitchell says. "I was the bad seed, they said. But those guys were already in the big leagues and I'm a rookie and I'm telling them what to do? There's no way."[/BLOCKQUOTE] FWIW, Davey Johnson in this 2016 chat with Snooze's John Harper reiterates the “Mitchell was suspected” tale, despite knowing that it couldn't be so, and was fighting to keep him on the team. [url]https://www.pressreader.com/usa/new-york-daily-news/20160524/282230894931009

metsmarathon Jan 13 2022 09:38 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

so... what if the mets had actually traded for barry larkin instead of mike bordick? would we have been telling everyone "welcome alarkin?" for the past 20+ years? he did hurt his knee in august, and did not play in september. of course that specific injury would not have happened if the circumstances changed, but would he have been enough of a difference over bordick to meaningfully impact the worid series outcome?

Johnny Lunchbucket Jan 13 2022 09:55 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

I was big on the Larkin deal as I recall it. Don't recall what was offered

roger_that Jan 13 2022 10:24 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Edgy MD wrote: I don't think that was an unreasonable inquiry. Which makes you a very unreasonable person. Thanks so much for affirming that suspicion. Back on planet Earth, there is no doubt that Knight and the Mets had agendas that were difficult to reconcile in the winter of 1986-7. Knight wanted: 1) to be paid a bit more than his 1986 performance warranted (which the Mets could have agreed to, but were by no means required to) 2) to get a two-year deal, as he could see (and feel) his skills and energy eroding (again, not necessarily a deal-breaker for the Mets, but not their wisest option.) Up to here, the Mets could have overpaid and overextended the length of Knight's deal, and it wouldn't have killed them BUT: 1) they probably offered, as the Orioles did, a two year deal with options and bonuses included that could have gotten Knight the money and the length he wanted, except 2) both sides knew that the Mets had many options at 3B (and 1B) that would have (and should have) cut sharply into Knight's playing time and thus his ability to earn the options and bonuses. The Orioles had a vacant spot at 3B, so Knight saw their deal as more lucrative, even if it was for less guaranteed money. The only way, I think, for them to have held onto him was to sweeten the guaranteed money, i.e., pay him star money while sitting him down for much of the season. The only way the Mets' deal would have worked with the bonuses would have been for Hojo and Magadan to have gotten hurt and Knight to have stepped up with a strong season. I'm thinking he saw that as unlikely and so walked away.

seawolf17 Jan 13 2022 10:30 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Which for him, was probably the right deal. HoJo was clearly the heir apparent, and he wasn't going to get the ABs he got with Baltimore in 1987 if he was here.

Edgy MD Jan 13 2022 11:04 AM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Edgy MD wrote: I don't think that was an unreasonable inquiry. Which makes you a very unreasonable person. Thanks so much for affirming that suspicion. We're trying to have a discussion. Can you please stop?

roger_that Jan 13 2022 12:19 PM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Sure, the second you stop asking unanswerable, snotty, provocative "inquiries" designed to annoy people. Oh, you can't? It's built into your DNA? That's a shame.

Edgy MD Jan 13 2022 12:31 PM Re: Mets "What ifs"

Everything you've written there is both untrue and malicious. I'm a moderator. I'm asking you to please moderate your tone.