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What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

roger_that Jul 16 2022 07:16 AM

There's been talk about the Angels dealing off Trout or Ohtani, and basically starting all over with a broader talent base (or something) but I wonder what the appropriate level of compensation would be for either of them. Just for fun, I also imagined the Angels packaging the two together. Now, if the Mets were to make a bid for this package, would they (or any team) have what it takes to compensate the Angels fairly for such giant superstars at their peak? Does any team? Of course, if the Mets were to include, say, Alonso and DeGrom and Scherzer and Lindor and maybe a few other stars, they would be able to offer fair compensation, and both teams in such a fair deal would be questionably improved, but how about if the Mets (or any team--I'm sticking to them here because they're the organization we know best) offered a giant package of their top ten minor league prospects in exchange for one of them, and their top twenty prospects for the pair? After a certain point, the sheer number of prospects who will eventually play well at the MLB level has to be a valuable commodity, though I suppose after a certain point you're just offering crappier and crappier prospects in bulk. Looked at from the reverse perspective, if the Mets were willing to strip their system for a star player, basically say to another team, "You can have any five (or seven or ten or whatever) players in our minor league system in exchange for X" how good a player would X be? Which team, in this scenario, would be likelier to say "Are you nuts? We ain't trading X for a bunch of prospects!" (or alternatively "Are you nuts? We ain't trading all out best prospects for X!") In terms of, say, Trout, you've got to figure he's got maybe five seasons ahead of him before he's no longer a superstar. (Could be two seasons, could be ten, but five seems reasonable.) That's about how long it would take to restock the Mets' minor league system. I guess what I'm trying to ask here is: would a deal of Superstar X for a bunch of prospects be possible, and if not, which side would want the deal more?

Edgy MD Jul 16 2022 07:24 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

Well, the Angels would be terrifically foolish to take back another megadeal in exchange for the one they are trying to dump, so deGrom, Lindor, and Scherzer are probably be right out.

roger_that Jul 16 2022 07:37 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

Edgy MD wrote: Well, the Angels would be terrifically foolish to take back another megadeal in exchange for the one they are trying to dump, so deGrom, Lindor, and Scherzer are probably be right out. Right. It's not clear who would back out faster, us or them, but someone would, I think. Which is why I'm interested in a huge package of dirt-cheap prospects. Are there enough of them in any organization (or in the Mets') to make such a deal feasible?

MFS62 Jul 16 2022 07:43 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

We haven't had a good old fashioned WATP thread in a long time. And what we would have to give up for Tout AND Ohtani qualifies as WA. and I don't think the current crop of prospects (and I wouldn't include Alvarez)would be enough. The organization is too shallow. Later

Edgy MD Jul 16 2022 07:44 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

Edgy MD wrote: Well, the Angels would be terrifically foolish to take back another megadeal in exchange for the one they are trying to dump, so deGrom, Lindor, and Scherzer are probably be right out. Right. It's not clear who would back out faster, us or them, but someone would, I think. Which is why I'm interested in a huge package of dirt-cheap prospects. Are there enough of them in any organization (or in the Mets') to make such a deal feasible? Sure. Any organization can put together a package for any player. Not every organization should, obviously.

roger_that Jul 16 2022 08:05 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

You sure? How many of the Mets' top minor leaguers would you trade to get Trout? Is there a number you would draw the line at? Is there a point at which the Angels would say "Ok, that's enough, we don't want any more"?

Ceetar Jul 16 2022 08:12 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

all of them. literally, you can have all 125 or whatever. Take 'em. We'll fill it with minor league free agent signings.

roger_that Jul 16 2022 10:29 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

[url]https://theathletic.com/3427987/2022/07/16/juan-soto-nationals-contract-offer/ This morning's news includes the possibility that the Nationals are going to trade Juan Soto for parts because he just turned down a 15-year, 440 mil contract extension. Does this interest the Mets? Do they want to take on that sort of contract? Do they have the parts to take Soto off the Nats' hands? Does anyone?

bmfc1 Jul 16 2022 10:35 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

Mauricio/Baty or Vientos/Peterson/Megill to start for either. WSH would want the other team to take Corbin off their hands.

MFS62 Jul 16 2022 10:45 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

=bmfc1 post_id=99968 time=1657989336 user_id=73] Mauricio/Baty or Vientos/Peterson/Megill to start for either. WSH would want the other team to take Corbin off their hands.

Not sure if I would deal both Peterson and Megil until I knew if Jake will re-sign or if Matt Allen has recovered from TJ surgery. But that's a start.

kcmets Jul 16 2022 11:04 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

My go-to monger had trout for $6.99 pound this morning. Got baby octopus. I mean I guess this speculation type thing can be fun/interesting but really I'd kinda be shocked if Trout didn't retire an Angel. I also think there would be some serious uproar if they moved Ohtani.

roger_that Jul 16 2022 11:28 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

Maybe. But some superstar is going to be on the market for a wealth of prospects and a shipload of money, probably both (plus signing him to a deal). The open question is whether your top prospects will be worth getting a superstar. Is the sky the limit for a Trout, an Ohtani, a Soto? Theoretically, I suppose, Steve Cohen can afford to pay all three, and the Mets' entire farm system, plus the change in Cohen's couch, might get you one, two, or three of them. Do you want to see that? I kinda do, because I like watching a team crush its opposition, even though I'm a big "grow 'em on the farm' kind of guy. I always wonder what would have happened if the Giants had signed Aaron and Mays, both, and eventually fielded a lineup with Aaron, Mays, McCovey, Cepeda and Jim Ray Hart. 120 wins? More? Less?

Ceetar Jul 16 2022 11:32 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

you're pretty much gonna have to pay deGrom 40/per as well, at least. for ..5 years?

kcmets Jul 16 2022 11:37 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

deGrom is likely leaving, and we're still not getting Trout or Ohtani or Soto.

Edgy MD Jul 16 2022 10:08 PM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

You sure? How many of the Mets' top minor leaguers would you trade to get Trout? Is there a number you would draw the line at? Is there a point at which the Angels would say "Ok, that's enough, we don't want any more"? As I wrote, there are deals an organization shouldn't make, but that doesn't mean they cannot make it.

roger_that Jul 17 2022 06:11 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

Agreed. But this is a matter of philosophy. Are you more inclined to be comfortable in the role of the team trading all its prospects for some hot right-now expensive talent, or in the acquiring-prospects for world domination five years down the road role? To me, there's something exciting and arrogant about being that confident in the ability of your talent scouts to say "This package of talent, so far unrevealed to the wide world, has the potential to more than outstrip the more obvious talent we are trading off." But there is a time, and it is now, that the Mets are on the verge of a world's championship team, and strangely (for them) awash in capital, that I'm inclined to roll the dice and get my hands on any Trout, Ohtani, Soto I can beg, borrow, connive, bribe, or induce my way to.

smg58 Jul 17 2022 12:45 PM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

From the owners' perspective, it's not so much whether guys like Soto/Trout/Ohtani add enough wins to justify their salary -- they do -- but whether they put enough people in the stands by themselves to justify their salary. Of course winning in general is the best way to fill your stadium, but the Angels have demonstrated repeatedly that having multiple guys with Hall-of-Fame talent isn't sufficient to build a consistent winner. And since they're dumb enough to repeatedly fail at team building despite having two guys that every GM would love to build around and a budget that shouldn't get in the way, they may well be dumb enough to think moving Trout and Ohtani will make things better for them. As for the price... for Soto or Ohtani, even Alvarez would have to be on the table (and by himself, Alvarez would not come close to being enough). I can't fathom the Nats would ever trade Soto to a division rival, but I have been wrong before.

roger_that Jul 17 2022 02:37 PM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

You've got to assume that, for Cohen, and perhaps for other smart, rich owners, turnng an annual profit on your MLB property may be secondary to building the value of that property long-term. In other words, if the Mets in ten years' time are worth three times what he paid for them, does he really care if the team runs at a relatively small loss each year he owns them?

batmagadanleadoff Jul 17 2022 03:53 PM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

Cohen's one of the dozen or so wealthiest guys in the world. He has more money than Arab oil sheikhs. He's sui generis and I strongly suspect that the regular rules don't apply to him. And by regular rules, I'm talking about the regular rules for billionaires. Cohen might be playing a different game. But we'll see. Fifty million dollars to Cohen is like pizza pie money to regular people. As far as the value of players, they go up every year. Every year, last season's record breaking salaries are shattered. I agree with smg. In fact, the first thing I thought of when I heard about Soto's contract situation, was that there's no way the Nats are trading him within their division, but if they did, it'd be a given that the Mets would have to include Alvarez.

Edgy MD Jul 17 2022 07:36 PM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

Mr. Cohen is generally listed at the edge of the top 100 wealthiest in the world, where these things are listed. More importantly, it's stinking awful that it wasn't so long ago that we thought of the wealthiest in the world as mostly foreigners. That the U.S. was certainly the wealthiest nation, but it was a nation that didn't make it easy for the richest to horde all the wealth. Not so much anymore.

roger_that Jul 18 2022 10:55 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

Is it clear to you when circumstances dictate "all our prospects" and when they dictate "all the money in creation" (in the form of taking on dead-weight contracts)? There's some sharp distinction that is drawn, I think, but I'm unclear if these are equally applied as strategies for robbing stars from weak teams and putting them on contenders or if one applies in certain circumstances and the other in other circumstances.

Edgy MD Jul 18 2022 11:17 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

I'm never going to agree to all the things. That would be just a copout, substituting hyperbole for analysis. Steve Cohen didn't make himself mega-rich by telling people to take whatever they wanted whenever he eyed an asset he craved. Is it clear to me what I'm willing to offer? I think it may be clear for the moment, but markets involve a lot of people. I can make up what I think is a fair valuation in my head but the market may have other ideas.

Ceetar Jul 18 2022 11:21 AM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

no, he made himself mega rich by cheating and scamming, as all billionaires do. I hope Eppler or Sandy or whoever is _Actually_ calling the shots extends good sound data-driven baseball decision making and not whatever it is that Cohen does. We can just look to last year's draft, or the trade deadline, to see that nonsense.

Marshmallowmilkshake Jul 18 2022 12:13 PM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

no, he made himself mega rich by cheating and scamming, as all billionaires do. Or, he's just really, really smart, works hard and is very good at what he does. Trout has a full no-trade clause, so he's not going anywhere unless he wants to go somewhere. So you'd have to blow the Angels away with an offer, then convince Trout that you still have enough left to be a contender for the years ahead. [url]https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/four-mlb-players-who-could-request-a-trade-including-mike-trout-and-a-forgotten-yankees-player/

Ceetar Jul 18 2022 12:40 PM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

=Marshmallowmilkshake post_id=100179 time=1658168037 user_id=119] =Ceetar post_id=100173 time=1658164868 user_id=102] no, he made himself mega rich by cheating and scamming, as all billionaires do.

Or, he's just really, really smart, works hard and is very good at what he does.






lol, good one.

Edgy MD Jul 18 2022 12:56 PM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

I really didn't mean to trigger a debate on the merits and demerits of Steve Cohen, and I hope not to go there. I just meant that (a) every asset has a price, and (b) depending on the market, that price might not be worth the asset to you at the moment, but that's OK. You can save your money for an asset that is. The no-trade clause, I imagine, is less to ensure any club Trout agrees to go to will remain a contender, and more to ensure that any cub Trout agrees to go to will offer him an extension.

Frayed Knot Jul 18 2022 01:42 PM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

Also, recalling maybe the most important lesson from MONEYBALL: it's easier to recover from the player you fail to sign than it is to recover from the one you sign at the wrong price. And before anyone jumps in with the argument that Cohen has unlimited money so that lesson as it applied to the turn of the century A's doesn't apply to the '22 Mets, the 'price', in this case, is players more than money; a Juan Soto speculation article today, for instance, said that the price for him would start at Alvarez + Baty + Vientos before moving on to probably also taking one or more bad contracts back such as Corbin or Strasburg. And again, focusing on the player aspect of this rather than the dollars and knowing how long it takes to find and develop ML talent plus the odds of success in doing so, does dealing for one-plus year of Ohtani and taking on Trout for not just his current self but also into his sunset years (thru age 38), or for two-plus years of Soto, offset the loss of ALL of your best talent make immediate and/or longer term sense? After all, the team that has those two guys now can't make it work or they wouldn't (theoretically anyway) be on the trading block. I'm not saying I'm against any potential deal and of course you want to investigate what the cost might be. Only that the immediate fan and sportswriter reflex in these cases is that the Mets/Yanx HAVE to do 'whatever it takes' to get this done NOW!!!! No they don't.

MFS62 Jul 18 2022 02:06 PM Re: What would a package of Trout and Ohtani be worth?

I agree, and wouldn't want to strip the organization of the top three prospects PLUS. You can't measure the incremental benefit of making that deal over just keeping those three, at least one of whom might become a multi-generational player. This isn't like those multi-player+ draft pick Herschel Walker-type NFL trades. I'm guessing there is a greater likelihood that a team could replenish organizational talent faster in the NFL draft than in baseball. And if the move doesn't bring near term success, it could set the organization back several years. And then the other part of my Libra brain kicks in and I think about how many "can't miss" prospects turn out as good as the scouts, and fans, predict. Remember the anguish when the Mets traded Jared Kelenic? His stock has gone down faster than a hooker at a bachelor party. * Is it worth it? I dunno. I can be firmly convinced either way, but tend on the "no" side. Later *- I really didn't want to post here, but had this need to use that analogy about Kelenic.