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How Much Do You Want It?

Edgy MD Jul 26 2022 11:28 AM

As the Mets seem to be entering into a dogfight for first place, and we're scoreboard watching rooting hard for them to hold off the Braves run, I wonder if the expanded playoff system has given the organization a more philosophical outlook toward the value of first — that the greater value for the team is to finish the season in strong and healthy shape because the runner up is likely playoff bound as well. So while a temporary chink in the rotation might seem from section 50s like a crisis that must be addressed immediately , the team's attitude may be more along the lines of, "Let's see where we are in a few weeks," that acting sooner rather than later in making a deal or activating an injured player could do more harm than good while looking at the long game. I don't know. I know I want first place, but also know that it might not be a difference maker in the long run. Then again, it might. And that bye would sure be nice.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 26 2022 11:34 AM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

The bye is certainly worth playing for. But if your point is that being the third-best first-place team is only marginally better than being the wild card, I agree. The difference between being the third-best first-place team and being the best wild-card team is almost nothing at all. (Potentially one extra home game each in the LDS and in the LCS, if you get that far?)

MFS62 Jul 26 2022 11:37 AM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

We don't know if this will still be an all hands on deck, down to the wire race. But if it is, that bye would be helpful for setting up the rotation and getting people healthy prior to the playoffs. Every little edge helps. Later

batmagadanleadoff Jul 26 2022 11:48 AM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

Well, it's looking like the 1st place team in the NL East will secure one of the two. byes. So if that holds up, winning the division certainly matters. A lot.

Ceetar Jul 26 2022 12:01 PM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

the Mets have a 8.5 game lead over St Louis for the last playoff spot. Fangraphs has them at 99.7% to make the playoffs (and 63.8% for the division) I've seen nothing from this front office that suggests I think they're going to over-invest on turning at 63.8 into a 73.8, particularly with that safety net. They might not out and out state that the return on investment isn't worth it (though Cohen kinda did last year, and was probably wrong), but I suspect they're thinking it. I don't think we see Alvarez move for instance, nor get called up. They aren't willing to admit the sunk cost of James McCann yet, and he'll be back soonish.

Edgy MD Jul 26 2022 12:06 PM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

Benjamin Grimm wrote: The bye is certainly worth playing for. But if your point is that being the third-best first-place team is only marginally better than being the wild card, I agree. The difference between being the third-best first-place team and being the best wild-card team is almost nothing at all. (Potentially one extra home game each in the LDS and in the LCS, if you get that far?) I'm not sure I have a point. I guess that I want first whether or not a bye is attached to it, because of what it represents, and maybe (or probably not so much) the team is more about getting in the playoffs and having the freshest, strongest, healthiest team when they get there, especially if they aren't playing for a bye. To the extent that I have a point, I guess that's my point. I want first a little more than it might rationally be worth.

Fman99 Jul 26 2022 01:26 PM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

On a tangent, a team that wins its division but still has to play a one game "play in" game against a wild card is getting fucked by the playoff expansion. Worth noting.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 26 2022 01:32 PM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

It's a best-of-three, and the division winner hosts all three games. Still bad, but not as bad as it could have been.

batmagadanleadoff Jul 26 2022 01:33 PM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

On a tangent, a team that wins its division but still has to play a one game "play in" game against a wild card is getting fucked by the playoff expansion. Worth noting. There are no more one game series under MLB's new playoff format. Also, there wont be any travel days in the 1st round. The team with the better record/seed will host all the games.

Benjamin Grimm Jul 26 2022 01:34 PM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

So yeah, when we get to the point where we're tracking a magic number over the Braves or Phillies, we'll also be looking at a magic number over the Cardinals or Brewers.

Fman99 Jul 26 2022 01:50 PM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

OK, my bad, I didn't research any of this. I shoot from the hip.

TransMonk Jul 26 2022 04:24 PM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

I'm wary of the bye being an advantage until it is tested out. You get the best teams playing 6 days a week for 6 months and then give them unprecedented time off before the most important games of the season. In theory, maybe the rest pays off. But messing with creatures of habit in October seems like it might not be the advantage MLB intended.

Lefty Specialist Jul 26 2022 04:42 PM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

It can be a godsend if you've got some guys playing banged-up. And it lets you set your rotation in a way the teams already playing can't do.

Frayed Knot Jul 26 2022 04:54 PM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

Landing a Bye gives you a 0% chance of being knocked out in the opening round of playoffs. Even three home games vs a (technically) inferior opponent isn't going to reduce the odds to much less than 30-40% chance of not surviving. It's Yuge.

Edgy MD Jul 26 2022 06:48 PM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

Plus, the bye team gets to save their bullets for the next round. So, yeah, I think we've mostly established that first place is still worth fighting hard for.

Frayed Knot Jul 26 2022 06:53 PM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

Edgy MD wrote: So, yeah, I think we've mostly established that first place is still worth fighting hard for. I just wish that the fight for it weren't so artificially contrived.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 03 2022 10:07 AM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=101006 time=1658857717 user_id=68] Well, it's looking like the 1st place team in the NL East will secure one of the two. byes. So if that holds up, winning the division certainly matters. A lot.

It's also looking like the runner up NL East team will play the Padres in the first or Wild Card round of the playoffs. Being that the Padres have owned the Mets this season and will have a middle of the batting order of Soto, Tatis, Jr. and Machado, it's that much more important, if it wasn't already extremely important, for the Mets to win their division and, presumably, get a first round bye.

Gwreck Aug 03 2022 10:20 AM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

Edgy MD wrote: So, yeah, I think we've mostly established that first place is still worth fighting hard for. Based on how the season is shaking out, there's a compelling argument that first place - but second seed - is what the Mets want. The division winner without a bye (Milwaukee) will play the lowest-ranked wild card team (likely St. Louis or Philadelphia). The other two wild cards (almost certainly the NL East second place team and San Diego) will play each other. For obvious reasons, playing San Diego is unappealing. Then, in the second round, the first seed (LA) gets the winner of the 4/5 matchup. The second seed (hopefully Mets) get the winner of the 3/6 matchup. Again, for obvious reasons, playing San Diego or Atlanta is unappealing. This year, being the first seed is only really helpful in providing home field advantage for the NLCS (and possibly World Series). (Needless to say, MLB should change this so that the top seed faces the weakest team in round 2…but these are the rules we have for this year).

smg58 Aug 03 2022 10:23 AM Re: How Much Do You Want It?

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=102123 time=1659542848 user_id=68] =batmagadanleadoff post_id=101006 time=1658857717 user_id=68] Well, it's looking like the 1st place team in the NL East will secure one of the two. byes. So if that holds up, winning the division certainly matters. A lot.

It's also looking like the runner up NL East team will play the Padres in the first or Wild Card round of the playoffs. Being that the Padres have owned the Mets this season and will have a middle of the batting order of Soto, Tatis, Jr. and Machado, it's that much more important, if it wasn't already extremely important, for the Mets to win their division and, presumably, get a first round bye.

And Josh Bell too. I'd be happy to make the Padres somebody else's problem in October.