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Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

Ceetar Aug 03 2022 08:02 PM

=Gwreck post_id=102208 time=1659575235 user_id=56] Grumble under breath that Eppler was willing to make a stupid trade of a great prospect in 2021 when Mets didn't have a great chance, but now was gunshy about doing so.

that was like 2 GMs ago.

Edgy MD Aug 03 2022 08:29 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

I'm-a never going to equate making deals with "going for it." I'm biased, because I hate trades on principle, but going for it can also mean committing to and believing in who you have. Who did the 1988 Mets trade for at the deadline? Edwin Nuñez?

Gwreck Aug 03 2022 09:06 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

=Ceetar post_id=102211 time=1659578529 user_id=102] =Gwreck post_id=102208 time=1659575235 user_id=56] Grumble under breath that Eppler was willing to make a stupid trade of a great prospect in 2021 when Mets didn't have a great chance, but now was gunshy about doing so.

that was like 2 GMs ago.


Can barely keep them straight, there are so many. At least this guy has demonstrated normal professional judgment?

G-Fafif Aug 03 2022 09:11 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Edgy MD wrote: I'm-a never going to equate making deals with "going for it." I'm biased, because I hate trades on principle, but going for it can also mean committing to and believing in who you have. Who did the 1988 Mets trade for at the deadline? Edwin Nuñez? Nuñez and Bob McClure, the latter of whom was the lefty specialist those times, like these times, demanded…and the lefty specialist who made little difference. Nuñez, meanwhile, didn't make the postseason roster.

Gwreck Aug 03 2022 09:16 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Edgy MD wrote: I'm-a never going to equate making deals with "going for it." I'm biased, because I hate trades on principle, but going for it can also mean committing to and believing in who you have. It's fine to hate trades. Not every trade gets you Keith Hernandez or Yoenis Cespedes. But can we at least agree agree that that the Mets had spots in their lineup and bullpen that could have been upgraded with better talent?

Ceetar Aug 03 2022 09:21 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

=Gwreck post_id=102215 time=1659582395 user_id=56] Can barely keep them straight, there are so many. At least this guy has demonstrated normal professional judgment?

Guess that depends on how much you think he knew about Tyler Skaggs.

Edgy MD Aug 03 2022 09:29 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Edgy MD wrote: I'm-a never going to equate making deals with "going for it." I'm biased, because I hate trades on principle, but going for it can also mean committing to and believing in who you have. It's fine to hate trades. Not every trade gets you Keith Hernandez or Yoenis Cespedes. But can we at least agree agree that that the Mets had spots in their lineup and bullpen that could have been upgraded with better talent? Maybe. Or (1) the allegedly better talent could turn out to be not so good, displacing players that might have played better, or (2) the players relegated to lesser roles turn out be lost opportunities, or (3) the espirit d'corps of the team is undermined, or (4) the talent the team gives up turns out to be the difference in games and championships not won further down the road. Every trade made features somebody trying to get the best of you. Often, the best trade is the one you don't make. Maybe the Mets didn't make that trade this week and we don't even know about it.

Gwreck Aug 03 2022 09:41 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Edgy MD wrote: =Gwreck post_id=102217 time=1659582961 user_id=56]But can we at least agree agree that that the Mets had spots in their lineup and bullpen that could have been upgraded with better talent? Maybe.

To me, the answer is obviously yes. In fact, I think there's no fair evaluation of the Mets that can't admit there are better players that Tomas Nido or Joely Rodriguez or JD Davis that were available via trade and in fact traded this past week that could have those roster spots instead. Full stop. I see no way that is at all a controversial statement.



It's fine to hate trades, and sure, there are always potential collateral consequences from any roster move, as noted.



But surely we can all agree there were opportunities to improve that were not exercised.

Edgy MD Aug 03 2022 09:59 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

As for J.D Davis, somebody clearly did take his roster spot, so there's no argument there. As far as "there are always potential collateral consequences," that's why deals aren't made. We have no idea.

Gwreck Aug 03 2022 10:18 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Of course we can't predict the future. But history has value. And it does tell us that trading prospects at the deadline rarely comes back to bite the Mets. In the last 25 years, the prospects the Mets truly regret trading, in which the value they traded away was greater than the value received are…Kazmir and Melvin Mora? Any maybe Jason Bay (who went through a second organization before becoming a star).

Edgy MD Aug 03 2022 10:23 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Veteran catchers exchanged at the deadline: Cam Gallagher: His track record suggests he's better ... -ish than Nido with the bat, though probably not better than McCann, depending on how much you believe the track record determines who he is. Is he better enough to make up for the better-ish track record Nido has defensively? Or to make up for the impact of changing your pitchers' receiver at this juncture while they are clicking on virtually all cylinders? I can see how that might be a tough call. Reese McGuire: This is Cam Gallagher with less of a track record. Boston didn't get him to upgrade for a playoff run. They got him to audition for the future as he replaces the guy they gave up, who is ... Christian Vázquez: Has been more than a part-timer but less than a regular through his career, and while generally being McCannish with the bat, is having his best season offensively. He's probably at least a little over the hill defensively, but has caught big shot veteran pitchers in the past so he comes with some authority. Would he have to adapt to the Mets staff and he to them? Certainly, but it'd probably, hopefully be a quicker adjustment than the previous two characters. This is the best choice of the three, I think. Is the chance that there is an improvement to be had there worth topping Houston's offer of Triple-A infielder Enmanuel Valdez and Double-A outfielder Wilyer Abreu? I am comfortable in declaring that I just don't know.

Edgy MD Aug 03 2022 10:52 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

=Gwreck post_id=102222 time=1659586686 user_id=56]In the last 25 years, the prospects the Mets truly regret trading, in which the value they traded away was greater than the value received are…Kazmir and Melvin Mora? Any maybe Jason Bay (who went through a second organization before becoming a star).

That's all you can come up with? Even those are enormous, and enough to realize that deadline deals can be very costly.



I'm not sure where 25 years comes in, but I can certainly offer more. Jason Isringhausen. Ty Wigginton. Jeff Keppinger — the throw-in in the Wigginton deal. Brian Bannister. I'm only thinking of midsummer, pump-up-for-the-race deals here.



There are, of course, several traded at the deadline in recent years whose value is not yet known. Pete Crow-Armstrong jumps out, but he's just one.



I don't mean to suggest that failure abounds, only that all deals are risk intensive, and even at deadlines, there are plenty of logical reasons to forswear that risk and walk away from the table as the price doesn't come down. And there are plenty of reasons to think that the alleged upgrade (Billy Taylor) won't actually help at all, and with good judgement, you can realize that the prospect you are being asked for (post-op Jason Isringhausen) can offer your team more in the present and/or the future, no matter what the track record may seem to suggest.



Even forgetting about Melvin Mora's lovely career after 2000, he outplayed Mike Bordick post-trade in that season alone, while Bordick went on to have one of the most counter-productive post-seasons (four singles in 43 trips to the plate) of any Met ever. The worst part is that Valentine knew Mora was better, no matter what the track record said, but acknowledged that the organization was under a lot of fan pressure.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 04 2022 12:52 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Edgy MD wrote: The worst part is that Valentine knew Mora was better, no matter what the track record said, but acknowledged that the organization was under a lot of fan pressure. If they were under a lot of fan pressure, the fucking Wilpons brought it on themselves. Why get a good shortstop when you can fool the rube portion of the fan base into thinking you already have a good shortstop by hyping the shit 24/7 out of Rey Fraudonez and having the audacity to put him on the same level with Nomar, Jeter and A-Rod? Know what happened when their crappy feeble shortstop missed the entire second half of a season? The Mets went to the World Series.

Gwreck Aug 04 2022 01:34 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Edgy MD wrote: =Gwreck post_id=102222 time=1659586686 user_id=56]In the last 25 years, the prospects the Mets truly regret trading, in which the value they traded away was greater than the value received are…Kazmir and Melvin Mora? Any maybe Jason Bay (who went through a second organization before becoming a star). That's all you can come up with? Even those are enormous, and enough to realize that deadline deals can be very costly. I'm not sure where 25 years comes in, but I can certainly offer more. Jason Isringhausen. Ty Wigginton. Jeff Keppinger — the throw-in in the Wigginton deal. Brian Bannister. I'm only thinking of midsummer, pump-up-for-the-race deals here.

Yes, that's “all I come up with” - the point is that lots of prospect trades get made but history shows that only rarely do those prospect trades wind up “burning” the Mets. Twice in 25 years isn't bad.



And sure, I picked 25 years arbitrarily as a representative sample. Not a big enough sample size? Feel free to go back through the entire 1990s and you add…I guess Kevin Tapani?



Or feel free to identify suggestions. Isringhausen for Billy Taylor was a bad trade, but it wasn't a prospect trade; Isringhausen had been on the team since 1995.



And the Wigginton/Benson trade was a clear winner for the Mets. Wigginton put up a career WAR of 1.2 after leaving the Mets. Also, Keppinger came to the Mets in that deal. Benson's 2004 and 2005 for the Mets was easily more valuable than what they gave up.

There are, of course, several traded at the deadline in recent years whose value is not yet known. Pete Crow-Armstrong jumps out, but he's just one.

Sure. We know this. There's also a guy in the Blue Jays system who we gave up for Stroman who's only 21. Results pending. But again, the point is - and as is supported by history - only rarely have prospect trades “burned” the Mets.

Fman99 Aug 04 2022 06:38 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

This would all be much easier to stomach if McCann wasn't so fucking bad at hitting.

Edgy MD Aug 04 2022 06:59 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

But again, the point is - and as is supported by history - only rarely have prospect trades “burned” the Mets. This isn't really analysis — any more than, "Only rarely have veteran trades helped the Mets," which is true enough, depending on how you define ambiguous terms to suit the argument. I obviously disagree that Isringhausen doesn't count, any more than J.D. Davis not counting or Mora not counting. And if you summarize "prospect trades," irregardless of the time of season, it's far from true that the team hasn't been hurt. I'm not sure what we disagree on beyond that, because none of us knows the deals the Mets opted not to consummate. We don't know if the Cubs were asking for Francisco Álvarez or Cody Bohanek. Any of us can superimpose what was on the table, but we just don't know. There was a saying at the MOFo: All threads lead to Rey. I wasn't expecting this one to.

Ceetar Aug 04 2022 07:19 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

There were obvious solutions out there that would make the Mets better, shore up weak points, shore against injury or fatigue. They opted to make a few low-leverage moves around the edges. But it's a business. This comes up every year, for most teams. The difference between the Mets making the NLCS and losing and winning the World Series are ASTRONOMICAL to fans, but negligible for ownership and even front offices. Big five game series starts tonight, might be the last really big series until the playoffs. They're still a good team with a good chance, and there's pretty much nothing we can do about it now.

kcmets Aug 04 2022 07:25 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Kyle Wright (#30, 26, RHP, 13-4, 2.93) Carlos Carrasco (#59, 35, RHP, 11-4, 3.79)

metsmarathon Aug 04 2022 09:38 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

=Fman99 post_id=102229 time=1659616717 user_id=86] This would all be much easier to stomach if McCann wasn't so fucking bad at hitting.

not for nothing, but in the month of july, willson contreras slashed 0.149/0.259/0.230 with an OPS of 0.489 in 19 games.



in july, the mets' sucky catchers collectively slashed 0.229/0.278/0.321 with an OPS of 0.599.



maybe, just maybe, this was something that scared the mets off, especially at a vientos asking price. imagine we traded vientos away and got worse at catcher.

Ceetar Aug 04 2022 09:47 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Contreras had has many walks and home runs as the Mets catchers in July too, despite a .208 babip. I'd hope the Mets aren't stupid enough to overvalue the 85 PA of July over the total of the 2676 previous ones that are IMMENSELY better. That was the true talent level of the Mets catchers, and McCann ain't much better. They ultimately didn't trade him so maybe what they were asking for was ridiculous, but it was a pretty poor deadline, again, by the Mets, and sometimes that's your own fault, not all the other teams, but I'm sure Sandy or Eppler will get up there and trot out the usual "We were surprised at the asking prices" line.

metsmarathon Aug 04 2022 10:06 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

or they look at mccann's 0.200 babip for the season and think, yeah, that should get better without costing us a player.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 04 2022 10:06 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On Edited 3 time(s), most recently on Aug 04 2022 10:21 AM

Edgy MD wrote: But again, the point is - and as is supported by history - only rarely have prospect trades “burned” the Mets. This isn't really analysis — any more than, "Only rarely have veteran trades helped the Mets," which is true enough, depending on how you define ambiguous terms to suit the argument. I obviously disagree that Isringhausen doesn't count, any more than J.D. Davis not counting or Mora not counting. And if you summarize "prospect trades," irregardless of the time of season, it's far from true that the team hasn't been hurt. I'm not sure what we disagree on beyond that, because none of us knows the deals the Mets opted not to consummate. We don't know if the Cubs were asking for Francisco Álvarez or Cody Bohanek. Any of us can superimpose what was on the table, but we just don't know. There was a saying at the MOFo: All threads lead to Rey. I wasn't expecting this one to. Sometimes, it's a balancing act, where a team will knowingly trade away future value for a better chance at the title right now. The very best organizations work that way all the time. So nobody's necessarily getting fleeced. A prospect with a very high ceiling is baseball capital, to be used just like money. Treat yourself to a fancy dinner at a high end restaurant. Or three dinners at a reasonably priced restaurant. Use it to pay your cable bill. Or bank it with the rest of your savings. Many ways to use it. These kind of trades that you seem to abhor so much are really informed decisions. (But you're free to still abhor them). deGrom and Scherzer are closer to 40 than to 30 and so the window with those two at the top of the rotation has to be closing. And pitchers that old can decline drastically in a heartbeat right before your eyes. They dont necessarily have to decline during the off season. They could be effective in August and toast in September. Many followers felt an urgency to act now. Anyways, Cohen is resourceful and will, I imagine, open up new windows when the time comes.

whippoorwill Aug 04 2022 10:17 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Edgy MD wrote: I'm-a never going to equate making deals with "going for it." I'm biased, because I hate trades on principle, but going for it can also mean committing to and believing in who you have. It's fine to hate trades. Not every trade gets you Keith Hernandez or Yoenis Cespedes. But can we at least agree agree that that the Mets had spots in their lineup and bullpen that could have been upgraded with better talent? My cats could have upgraded their bullpen

Benjamin Grimm Aug 04 2022 10:41 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

I wish my cats would upgrade their litter box.

Ceetar Aug 04 2022 10:42 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

=metsmarathon post_id=102248 time=1659629167 user_id=83] or they look at mccann's 0.200 babip for the season and think, yeah, that should get better without costing us a player.

if they do, it's because they don't know sunk cost.



McCann is bad and they overpaid because they were too chicken/cheap to go after Realmuto and they bought into a short season small sample good year he had in 2020.



Sure, he's been a little unlucky this year, but at best he'll improve a bit from terrible to just plain stinky. Also he's walking at pitiful levels so it's not all batted ball luck there.



Clear hole, potential upgrade, and they didn't even try.

kcmets Aug 04 2022 10:46 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

=Ceetar post_id=102252 time=1659631349 user_id=102]and they didn't even try.

Pretty sure no one here really knows what they tried or didn't try.



This is why I miss HVAC Guy at Shea so much. But he's sadly in a

correctional facility in Dutchess County.

Frayed Knot Aug 04 2022 11:28 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

The fact that nobody traded for Contreras at least hints at the idea that the Cubs asking price was high, higher than anyone wanted to pay. Him Not being with the Cubs by August 3rd was considered the surest thing going into this season's trading splurge. This all reminds me of the 'Rumor Mill' days of the MoFo when all sorts of hypotheticals from all sorts of sources (real and imagined) were thrown against the wall, only to have someone wail afterward about why Steve Phillips didn't make the Really Good Player for Really Bad Met deal when it was on the table!!

Edgy MD Aug 04 2022 12:06 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

That may be so. Were they available at the trade deadline? For now, the Mets are third in the league in relief ERA. That's despite that number being skewed by the one reliever they picked up at the deadline, clocking in with a 67.50 mark after yesterday. Sometimes you buy a high end meal and it's awful. And you get food poisoning. And you realize that you had perfectly good food at home, but you ruined your relationship with your date going against your better judgment. To switch metaphors, birds in the bush are not necessarily better than birds in the hand, and I don't believe that bagging one no matter the price is the only way to go for it. And lastly, we don't know what was available at what price. And something something Rey Ordóñez.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 04 2022 12:15 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

And your untouchable future superstar could be Shawn Abner or Billy Beane. Which is much likelier. And a Mack truck could run me over on the way to the supermarket. Or some lunatic with an AR-15 could shoot up the whole supermarket right after my arrival. I think I should never go to the supermarket ever again.

Ceetar Aug 04 2022 12:20 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Sure, you can get food poisoning from the best chef in the world, but if my goal is a superlative meal, that chef has served 100s of them, and I've served a handful. I know which odds I'd like. I mean, the Mets could put ME up there in the bottom of the 9th to close out a 1 run game with 2 outs, bases loaded and the batter could hit my meatball 140mph and so straight that it literally hits Lindor's glove right in the pocket, and we win... ..but I'd still rather we upgrade that position.

Edgy MD Aug 04 2022 12:35 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

And your untouchable future superstar could be Shawn Abner or Billy Beane. Which is much likelier. You're going to have to show me your work. And please keep in mind that I didn't write anything about "untouchable" or "future superstar." I just don't equate trading with "going for it." I also support your notion that you should never go to a supermarket again. Line cutters are everywhere.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 04 2022 12:55 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Edgy MD wrote: =batmagadanleadoff post_id=102259 time=1659636932 user_id=68] And your untouchable future superstar could be Shawn Abner or Billy Beane. Which is much likelier. You're going to have to show me your work.

What's the difference? You have an attachment to all Mets prospects and Mets draftees that's more emotional than logical or analytical. You have a practically blanket aversion to any and all Mets trades. You're against every Mets trade because you're convinced that every outgoing Met will do better than the corresponding new incoming Met. Unless we're getting Keith for Ownbey. Because even you wouldn't pooh pooh that one. But a guy like Steve Cohen can afford to trade some of the future for the now. He's loaded and will make it up in the free agent market. Just you watch. He's only been here for a short while. We won't become the Dodgers in a season or two. But I'm confident that we're on the way.

Ceetar Aug 04 2022 01:07 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=102270 time=1659639359 user_id=68] He's only been here for a short while. We won't become the Dodgers in a season or two. But I'm confident that we're on the way.

why are you confident? what hires has he made to convince you? At the risk of spinning this off agian into a player dev thread..



The thing the Dodgers, and the Padres for that matter have done has a lot to do with player development and coaching. They have coaches for everyone, to help maximize everyone's value, and have their player acquisition approach tailored to that as well.



And then the minors.. It's less of a big deal to trade their one of their top guys, because they develop the next draft worth of players into next year"s top guys. So all they really traded was a year of time. Cohen, on the other hand, has failed to sign a bunch of people they targeted in the draft, and there's no indication that the Mets are doing the best they can at developing these guys into potential studs.

Edgy MD Aug 04 2022 01:13 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Edgy MD wrote: =batmagadanleadoff post_id=102259 time=1659636932 user_id=68] And your untouchable future superstar could be Shawn Abner or Billy Beane. Which is much likelier. You're going to have to show me your work. What's the difference?

The difference is that a statement of fact has weight when backed by evidence.



I realize it's easier to mischaracterize and distort my position, but that doesn't have any weight. Not with me. So it's a futile exercise.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 04 2022 01:15 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

I sense that the Mets would have been willing to trade Vientos or Maurico but not Baty or Alvarez. I can definitely understand wanting to keep Alvarez. If he turns out to be as good (or even half as good) as they're saying, he'll be a real asset because catchers are hard to come by. Baty, who they may be looking at as the third-baseman of the future, could more easily be replaced with a free agent. Nobody in this year's group looks super promising. Nolen Arenado may (or may not) opt out, but he's already 32. Justin Turner has the highest WAR among the 3Bs, but he's 38 years old. I would have loved to have seen them bring in a proven young All-Star with a big bat (as the Padres did) but I understand why they didn't. So I'm not grumbling, at least not yet. Let's see how October goes. And then, the subsequent off-season. The Mets may have to rebuild their starting rotation and may need some of these trade chips then more than they do now. (deGrom, Bassitt, Carrasco, and Walker can all be free agents. As can Nimmo and Diaz.) Here's the list: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2022-23-free-agents-by-position

batmagadanleadoff Aug 04 2022 01:18 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

=Ceetar post_id=102273 time=1659640077 user_id=102] =batmagadanleadoff post_id=102270 time=1659639359 user_id=68] He's only been here for a short while. We won't become the Dodgers in a season or two. But I'm confident that we're on the way.

why are you confident?


Because he's the wealthiest owner in baseball, for starters. Because this is just Cohen's second full season and you can't build Rome in a day. All I can reasonably hope for is that there's a contending team on the field. Post-season is mostly luck. And this year, we have more than a contending team.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 04 2022 01:23 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Edgy MD wrote: Edgy MD wrote: You're going to have to show me your work. What's the difference? The difference is that a statement of fact has weight when backed by evidence. I realize it's easier to mischaracterize and distort my position, but that doesn't have any weight. Not with me. So it's a futile exercise. I don't believe I've mischaracterized your posts because I've been reading them for 15 years now. You're practically against every trade, before they're even made. You've convinced yourself that Mets prospects are better than other team's prospects simply because they're Mets. And Cohen's sample size is way too small. I'm not gonna use Wilpon era data where that ownership group was incompetent and I can't even say that my interests as a fan and the Wilpons' interests as owners was even perfectly aligned, especially during the 10 year Madoff era.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 04 2022 01:23 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

Anthony DiComo in the Mets Beat e-mail newsletter wrote: Eager to make a splash at the 2021 Trade Deadline, the Mets dealt their fifth-ranked prospect, 2020 first-round Draft pick Pete Crow-Armstrong, for two months of Javier Báez and a year-plus of Trevor Williams. They've at least partially regretted it ever since. Although Báez (thumbs-down episode notwithstanding) was productive for the Mets down the stretch, and Williams has been a glue guy for their pitching staff this year, the Mets missed the playoffs in 2021. And the cost was significant. Crow-Armstrong, who was injured at the time of the deal, is healthy now and is thriving in the Minors as the No. 75 prospect in baseball. Were he still in the Mets organization, Crow-Armstrong would rank fourth on their MLB Pipeline list behind Francisco Álvarez, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio. Billy Eppler wasn't the Mets' general manager at the time of that deal, but he's determined to avoid repeating the mistake, which is the simplified reason why he did not acquire a catcher or a left-handed pitcher prior to this year's Deadline. Although Willson Contreras, Sean Murphy or one of many lefty relievers could have helped the Mets, Eppler considered the cost too significant. “Some of that undisciplined thinking can lead to years of mediocrity and doing the same thing over and over and over again,” Eppler said. “One of the things we've talked about here is just really trying to maintain that organizational discipline, to crush any urge to make a snap or an impulsive decision and give up large amounts of future World Series odds or expectation in exchange for just some marginal gains right now.”  Within that answer, Eppler referenced the fact that when Mets officials evaluate trades, they do so using analytical models -- common practice around the league. Replacing Dominic Smith with Daniel Vogelbach, for example, will increase their odds to win a championship by a certain percent. Parting with Colin Holderman in that same deal will decrease their odds in future seasons. Mets owner Steve Cohen has been vocal in his desire to build something sustainable in Flushing, which in Eppler's eyes meant navigating the Trade Deadline without spending any of the organization's “Top 19 prospects.” It's a group that includes Álvarez, Baty, Mauricio, Mark Vientos, Alex Ramírez, Matt Allan and about a dozen others. Statistically speaking, most of those players will not develop into stars. But if the Mets keep their list of potential impact prospects long enough, it will create a pipeline of future contributors and trade chips. The counterargument is that rationality does not win titles. As Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman once said in reference to the winter Hot Stove season, “If you're always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.” The Dodgers have made deals in the past that many would consider irrational, swinging Deadline blockbusters for Yu Darvish, Trea Turner, Max Scherzer and others. They've remained extremely competitive due to their deep pockets and ability to continue infusing their farm system with talent. The Dodgers are not just richer than most teams in baseball; they're smarter, too. It's a place the Mets yearn to reach, and they were willing to sacrifice incremental improvements to this year's roster to do so. The price on Contreras remained high enough that no club acquired him, despite the fact that he plays for a fourth-place team and can become a free agent after this season. (Chicago's only incentive to keep its starting catcher was to extend him a qualifying offer this winter, and to increase its odds of re-signing him.) The Mets never came close on Contreras, according to a source. They did nearly acquire some lefty pitching, Eppler said, but couldn't strike a deal despite significant inventory around the league. As an example, a person familiar with negotiations said the Tigers was seeking multiple offensive pieces for lefty closer Gregory Soto; the Mets had little interest in dealing players such as Vientos or Mauricio for a relief pitcher. In one sense, this represents sound strategy, because the Mets figure go as far as Jacob deGrom and Scherzer take them. If either of those two suffers another injury, the team may not be able to recover. And if both are healthy, how much difference will a lefty reliever make? But in another sense, the Mets' current window of contention appears small. deGrom is 34 with a significant injury history and may be playing his final season as a Met. Scherzer is 38 with a growing list of aches and bruises. Taijuan Walker, Chris Bassitt and Carlos Carrasco can all become free agents after this season. If ever there was a year to do something irrational, this might be it -- even if it means sacrificing the next Crow-Armstrong, whose ultimate value is still unknown.

Edgy MD Aug 04 2022 01:31 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=102279 time=1659641000 user_id=68] I don't believe I've mischaracterized your posts because I've been reading them for 15 years now.

Statements of faith are a dime a dozen. If you won't back up what you assert, then you won't.

Ceetar Aug 04 2022 01:41 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

why are you confident? Because he's the wealthiest owner in baseball, for starters. Because this is just Cohen's second full season and you can't build Rome in a day. All I can reasonably hope for is that there's a contending team on the field. Post-season is mostly luck. And this year, we have more than a contending team. But much of the staff is the same. It's still Sandy making the same Sandy comments and moves. They're on their...4th? GM and he's putting out lame excuses, even that article by DiComo seems negative, and quotes Andrew Friedman: "If you're always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.” I trust Friedman's view of things above literally anyone in the Mets front office right now. And Eppler can talk about "future championship value" all he wants, The Mets have A LOT of expiring contracts that will be tough to fill, even if you were gonna spend another $100 million next year. That means they're tentatively banking on MeGill and Peterson to be key pieces.

whippoorwill Aug 04 2022 01:58 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Benjamin Grimm wrote: I wish my cats would upgrade their litter box. Ugh mine too. My son got one of those self cleaning litter boxes and I'm not impressed btw

metsmarathon Aug 04 2022 02:47 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

the mets could have a 6-7 year window, or a 1-year window, depending on how hard they went at this trade deadline. i think they're looking at this team as capable of competing this year, but also being a juggernaut moving forward with the good prospects they have just about to ripen. alvarez, baty, vientos, and mauricio could all be playing in flushing next year, which frees up a fair bit of capital to throw at pitchers. i like what they're doing in this regard.

MFS62 Aug 04 2022 03:05 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

I don't care if the State Department begs, I am NOT throwing Alvarez into any deal for Brittney Griner. Later

Lefty Specialist Aug 04 2022 03:53 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

Jacob just turned 34 in June. So still closer to 30 than 40. Just saying. And with all their time off this year, I'd imagine both will be fresh in October, barring more injuries.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 04 2022 04:11 PM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Edgy MD wrote: =batmagadanleadoff post_id=102279 time=1659641000 user_id=68] I don't believe I've mischaracterized your posts because I've been reading them for 15 years now. Statements of faith are a dime a dozen. If you won't back up what you assert, then you won't.

What exactly is it that you'd like me to back up?

Edgy MD Aug 04 2022 04:25 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

Really annoying. Youssa say, "And your untouchable future superstar could be Shawn Abner or Billy Beane. Which is much likelier." Then meesa say, "You're going to have to show me your work." And then youssa all, "What's the difference?" Real cool-like. And meesa all, "The difference is that a statement of fact has weight when backed by evidence." Just dorky as shit, but meesa am what meesa am! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Meesa think it's an easy enough narrative to follow. Or youssa can just write things about how intransigent meesa am. Or youssa can make it about Rey Ordóñez. That's fine. But it's just changing the subject to other things youssa won't back up. It's certainly not going to convince meesa that the value of deadline acquisitions are generally more likely (much more likely) to benefit the contending team making the acquisitions than the players they trade would have.

duan Aug 04 2022 04:55 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

I think in relation to Contreras there's a clear “We're not sure he's that much of an improvement… maybe we can bring up Alvarez on Sept 1 and if he hits the ball leave McCann or Nido off the playoff roster … “ DH they improved - kind of a mad way to to it, but hey if it works it works and neither guy cost so much. Lefty reliever is the first noodle scatcher to me. It's such a gaping hole that you'd have to try and find some kind of patch. The other is Matt Vientos. If you aren't prepared to see if he's good enough to contribute at DH now then why not trade him. You've just acquired two guys for that role who're under control for a couple of years. Maybe nobody else values him at all but it strucke that he looked like a very expendable part …

batmagadanleadoff Aug 04 2022 05:14 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

Edgy MD wrote: Really annoying. Youssa say, "And your untouchable future superstar could be Shawn Abner or Billy Beane. Which is much likelier." Then meesa say, "You're going to have to show me your work." And then youssa all, "What's the difference?" Real cool-like. And meesa all, "The difference is that a statement of fact has weight when backed by evidence." Just dorky as shit, but meesa am what meesa am! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Meesa think it's an easy enough narrative to follow. Or youssa can just write things about how intransigent meesa am. Or youssa can make it about Rey Ordóñez. That's fine. But it's just changing the subject to other things youssa won't back up. It's certainly not going to convince meesa that the value of deadline acquisitions are generally more likely (much more likely) to benefit the contending team making the acquisitions than the players they trade would have. You'd like for me to back up the value of making baseball trades? Is that even possible? It's like a Rorschach test. Or interpreting the bible. You can twist it and bend it to prove anything or make it mean anything. It would be a totally nebulous and pointless exercise. Take, for example, the Amos Otis for Joe Foy trade. It was a horrible trade, right? So what? What's the point? That the Mets should never make a trade ever again because of how bad the Otis trade went? Would that be your point? Or something like that? And that's assuming the Otis trade was bad. Because it wasn't. I could say it was a fucking great trade. I could. If I was rooting for the Royals. Because every trade that's good might also be just as bad. It depends on your perspective. What the Otis trade really was was a disproportionately lopsided trade. An unusually lopsided trade. But no matter what it was, is that supposed to be a lesson to never make a trade ever again, or at least, never to trade young players who've had limited playing time? Is that what you're getting at. That past trades might justify present day trades and it's on me to prove some point using that methodology? That you're generally against the Mets making any trade, especially of home-grown Mets draftees is indisputable. You're emotionally attached to those Mets and the proof is all over this forum, going back decades. And if I were to dig out some of those posts, which I have no intention of doing, you'd still find some way to wiggle out of admitting the point. And there's nothing wrong with that attitude. You're entitled. You're trade averse unless the trade seems so lopsidedly in the Mets favor that there's almost no risk involved. That's the trade you're confy with. Like Ownbey for Keith. I'm not sure what Ordonez has to do with this conversation. I did bring him up earlier, but it had nothing to do with weighing the value of trades.

kcmets Aug 04 2022 05:33 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

moved per avi

Edgy MD Aug 04 2022 05:58 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=102311 time=1659654846 user_id=68]You'd like for me to back up the value of making baseball trades?

I'm certain I was clear, despite expressing myself in the voice of an idiot. But I see that you instead took me up on the offer to just make up something I didn't write.



I don't know how someone can act like they are incapable of following a conversation they are actually in, even as their words are retyped for them, but there we are.

Edgy MD Aug 04 2022 06:02 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

I think in relation to Contreras there's a clear “We're not sure he's that much of an improvement… maybe we can bring up Alvarez on Sept 1 and if he hits the ball leave McCann or Nido off the playoff roster … “ I would guess that there's some truth in this, or at least "We're not sure he's that much of an improvement… considering the value we place in the players they are asking for."

Ceetar Aug 04 2022 07:32 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

the mets could have a 6-7 year window, or a 1-year window, depending on how hard they went at this trade deadline. i think they're looking at this team as capable of competing this year, but also being a juggernaut moving forward with the good prospects they have just about to ripen. alvarez, baty, vientos, and mauricio could all be playing in flushing next year, which frees up a fair bit of capital to throw at pitchers. i like what they're doing in this regard. penciling in those guys as replacements for our offense from this year is what cheap teams do. Even if it frees up the budget for "pitching" I don't know if there's that much pitching available compared to what they're going to potentially lose. At least in the sense that the Mets aren't going to be the only ones after them ,and letting them all happen in free agency means having to overpay for all of them and you STILL might not get them all. There's a lot of turnover coming, which is why fumbling the offseason AGAIN with the GM, and then doing nothing of significance, AGAIN, at the trade deadline is problematic. There's no redundancy or overlap and that's how one failed FA or a key injury at the wrong time derails your plans.

metsmarathon Aug 05 2022 06:04 AM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

yeah, man, they really fucked up the past offseason. inexcusable what they allowed to happen to the team.

Ceetar Aug 05 2022 06:28 AM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

Already being a good team hides a lot of mistakes, but that doesn't mean they're not there, and that we shouldn't look for them to be corrected.

metsmarathon Aug 05 2022 07:58 AM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

last year the mets were 46-38 (0.548 winning percentage) when degrom went down. that's good.. pretty good i guess. 88-win team. having a cheat code for a pitcher sure helped hide a lot of flaws. after a bug fix removed that cheat code from our lineup, the mets went 31-47 (0.397 winning percentage). that's bad. 64 win team right there. there were a lot of flaws. until two days ago, the mets were again without their cheat code. and in fact lost the game in which he returned. their record in that time? 66-37. 103-win pace. they are 100 percentage points better this year without degrom than they were last year WITH him! they are a full 15-wins-better team without jacob degrom, than they were last year WITH HIM. FIFTEEN!!! they're forty fucking wins better than the team that didn't have him last year. yeah, they really fucked up last offseason. so many mistakes made. i hope they make even half as many this coming winter. we should be so lucky.

Gwreck Aug 05 2022 08:12 AM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

=Ceetar post_id=102363 time=1659663145 user_id=102]fumbling the offseason AGAIN with the GM,

Is the issue the choice of GM or the off-season acquisitions?



Scherzer, Bassitt, Marte, Canha, and Ottavino were all very good acquisitions, no? Is there something wrong with those pickups I missed?

Ceetar Aug 05 2022 08:15 AM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT) Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 05 2022 10:10 AM

I don't feel like rehashing the [CROSSOUT]deadline[/CROSSOUT]offseason, some non-moves worked out (like McNeil bouncing back, MeGill pitching amazing, etc. [url]https://blogs.fangraphs.com/which-teams-improved-the-most-at-the-trade-deadline/ Here's a link to ZiPS before/after the deadline. Mets went from 81.6% to win the division, to 79.4, 15.6% to win the World Series, to 14.9. This speaks not just to the relative quality of the moves they made, but in comparison what the teams they'll have to face were doing.

Gwreck Aug 05 2022 08:19 AM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

=Ceetar post_id=102422 time=1659708912 user_id=102]I don't feel like rehashing the deadline, some non-moves worked out (like McNeil bouncing back, MeGill pitching amazing, etc.

What does this mean? Are you referring to the off-season or the trade deadline?

metsmarathon Aug 05 2022 08:46 AM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

my god, we went from second-likeliest team to win the world series all the way down to.... second most likely team to win the world series. holy fuck, what a disaster. the astros added a 1b/of/dh, a catcher, and a reliever, - two of those players were ones the mets were thought to be in the running for - and their chances of winning the world series dropped nearly as much as ours! The dodgers chances of winning it all dropped a full 3.1%! what utter shit management they have, amirite? do they even know what they're doing in LA?

Ceetar Aug 05 2022 10:10 AM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

I mean, yeah, that's what Soto does for a team. He's freaking Juan Soto. (and hey, the Dodgers supposedly tried for that too!) My point is the Mets _do_ have holes, and then did less to fill them than all their competition. Maybe they were good enough, it's certainly possible, but that doesn't mean it was a good trade deadline or that I'm wrong to be annoyed that they didn't do more to maximize their chances in 2022. This is after they made similar calculus last year, and that time it definitely didn't work. And I don't think it reflects well on their decision that part of the justification was them second-guessing the decisions they made just last year. Sure, that wasn't Eppler, but it WAS Sandy, and others are the same as well, who aren't as prominent.

Gwreck Aug 05 2022 10:16 AM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

It's not exactly a compelling argument to say the Mets “fumbled” the off-season but only have as follow-up “I don't feel like rehashing it.” For the record, I agree the Mets could have done more at the deadline. But the off-season moves? The results are pretty compelling, eg. the five key additions cited above.

Edgy MD Aug 05 2022 10:34 AM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

=metsmarathon post_id=102426 time=1659710761 user_id=83] my god, we went from second-likeliest team to win the world series all the way down to.... second most likely team to win the world series. holy fuck, what a disaster. the astros added a 1b/of/dh, a catcher, and a reliever, - two of those players were ones the mets were thought to be in the running for - and their chances of winning the world series dropped nearly as much as ours! The dodgers chances of winning it all dropped a full 3.1%! what utter shit management they have, amirite? do they even know what they're doing in LA?

Here's marathon backing up a position with data and facts. It's not that much to ask.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 05 2022 10:52 AM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

Edgy MD wrote: =metsmarathon post_id=102426 time=1659710761 user_id=83] my god, we went from second-likeliest team to win the world series all the way down to.... second most likely team to win the world series. holy fuck, what a disaster. the astros added a 1b/of/dh, a catcher, and a reliever, - two of those players were ones the mets were thought to be in the running for - and their chances of winning the world series dropped nearly as much as ours! The dodgers chances of winning it all dropped a full 3.1%! what utter shit management they have, amirite? do they even know what they're doing in LA? Here's marathon backing up a position with data and facts. It's not that much to ask.

If you're addressing me, I still dont know what you want from me. You're against trades. All Mets trades. Or most Mets trades. But especially trades involving Mets prospects . And you say so all the time. But now that I bring it up, you suddenly, I dunno, deny it. Or at least challenge me. You have an extreme emotional attachment to homegrown Mets. But you suddenly deny this. Or avoid the point altogether and instead, ask me for data. Whatever.



On another front, I thought this discussion was about the merits or wisdom, or even necessity, of making trade deadline trades.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 05 2022 11:31 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

=Ceetar post_id=102283 time=1659642082 user_id=102] =batmagadanleadoff post_id=102277 time=1659640721 user_id=68] =Ceetar post_id=102273 time=1659640077 user_id=102] why are you confident?

Because he's the wealthiest owner in baseball, for starters. Because this is just Cohen's second full season and you can't build Rome in a day. All I can reasonably hope for is that there's a contending team on the field. Post-season is mostly luck. And this year, we have more than a contending team.


But much of the staff is the same. It's still Sandy making the same Sandy comments and moves.


There may be overlap but I doubt that working under Cohen is anything like working under the Wilpons. Those fucking scumbags with their Walmart-like budget for the Rick Porcellos because why re-sign the way better Zack Wheeler? The Wilpons? Who, right after the last free agent was signed, would come out and claim that the budget was unlimited and that Alderson could've signed anybody he wanted to to as much money as he wanted to and all he had to do was ask? Jeff? Who probably micro-managed the number of cheeseburgers Sandy ate from the Citi Field Shake Shack?



Apples and Oranges.

Edgy MD Aug 05 2022 12:02 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=102445 time=1659718324 user_id=68]If you're addressing me, ...

I'm addressing the world, or at least the room. But to anyone beyond the room who may stumble upon my statement, may they all know that I celebrate when folks back up their positions.


=batmagadanleadoff post_id=102445 time=1659718324 user_id=68]I still dont know what you want from me. I consulted others. These included my wife, kids on the street, my drycleaner, and a group of debutantes who were there getting measured for their cotillion gowns. None of them believe I could be any plainer. Matt Damon contacted me from Mars and said it was clear to him. If you don't want to answer, then you don't. That's fine too. I find meaning and substance and enjoyment and advancement when folks back up their claims, but please be assured that you don't have to do that.


=batmagadanleadoff post_id=102445 time=1659718324 user_id=68]You're against trades. ... .

I can represent my positions perfectly fine.

Ceetar Aug 06 2022 06:34 AM Re: IGT 8/4/2022: ATL@NYM -- Let's Get It On

Because he's the wealthiest owner in baseball, for starters. Because this is just Cohen's second full season and you can't build Rome in a day. All I can reasonably hope for is that there's a contending team on the field. Post-season is mostly luck. And this year, we have more than a contending team. But much of the staff is the same. It's still Sandy making the same Sandy comments and moves. There may be overlap but I doubt that working under Cohen is anything like working under the Wilpons. Those fucking scumbags with their Walmart-like budget for the Rick Porcellos because why re-sign the way better Zack Wheeler? The Wilpons? Who, right after the last free agent was signed, would come out and claim that the budget was unlimited and that Alderson could've signed anybody he wanted to to as much money as he wanted to and all he had to do was ask? Jeff? Who probably micro-managed the number of cheeseburgers Sandy ate from the Citi Field Shake Shack? Apples and Oranges. Sure. But i'm not convinced by anything I've seen that Cohen isn't just as big a scumbag. The money is important, and so far he's done some moves the Wilpons probably wouldn't, especially coming off 2020/Covid. He had the benefit of not personally taking that "hit" because he didn't buy until after. But the actual nuts and bolts running of the team, particularly long-term and developmentally? I still have questions. Never mind the hiring scumbags, then hiring scumbags to see if you should fire the first scumbag, and then taking a year to quietly fire said scumbag.. And that's aside from the revolving door of GMs. We went real fast from "no one wants to work for the Mets" to them hiring Eppler and then no one seemingly questioning if those two things are related, Eppler's history, or if he even has autonomy. Eppler citing last year's thinking when he wasn't here as part of the decision making process this year kinda suggests he's at least heavily listening to someone else when making these calls.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 06 2022 04:45 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

Edgy MD wrote: =batmagadanleadoff post_id=102445 time=1659718324 user_id=68]You're against trades. ... . I can represent my positions perfectly fine.

And if you represent them, they're fair game. You commented about how you're against trades, which you do like nine times a year. This time, I thought I'd respond. And I've been met with your bullshit and obfuscation and sarcasm and get me some data -- anything and everything but the actual point of discussion. You have an emotional attachment to Mets prospects which is undeniable, yet if I bring it up it, you challenge every breath I take. I've no doubt that if certain others here made the exact same comments I just made, you'd be agreeable and fessing up like Jeffrey Dahmer.



Do you even admit that you're generally against trades? And if not, what's the point of all of this?

Edgy MD Aug 06 2022 07:55 PM Re: Post-Trade-Deadline Grumbling (Split from Aug 4 IGT)

I'm not on the stand here. If you'd like an answer, please ask me nicely. Or, better yet, you know, answer one yourself. Nothing has been obfuscated. I asked you to back up a statement, and you didn't want to. That's fine. Playing the victim is just old.