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In addition to the several threads here dealing with our predictions for this important five-game set (and beyond), there's also the matter of cold, hard probabilities.
A five game series provides six possible results [the Mets can go 5-0, 4-1, 3-2, 2-3, 1-4, or 0-5] but those results are made up of 32 [2^5] unique outcomes
which will serve to make up those results.
What I'm going to assume here is that each game of the series is a statistical coin flip [50/50], an assumption which I think is fair seeing as how the two teams are
close in the standings and have virtually identical records since July 1st. One could argue that a slightly better season record plus home field should give the NYM a
slight edge in each, but HFA is small in baseball (53-ish% per game?) and factoring it in makes the math so complicated that it begins to make my hair hurt. So I'm
sticking with the idea that each of those individual outcomes have the same odds at each other. But of course more of those outcomes feed into split series results
than they do clean sweeps or 4-1 near-sweeps so the chances on those final results aren't all the same.
So, as our series began, the odds were like this:
Mets go 5-0 = 3.1%
Mets go 4-1 = 15.6%
Mets go 3-2 = 31.2%
Braves go 3-2 = 31.2%
Braves go 4-1 = 15.6%
Braves go 5-0 = 3.1%
(odds add up to 99.8% due to rounding)
And since there is no splitting of a five game series, the odds of either winning the series, in small degrees or large, is 50% to either side.
But now that the first outcome has been PUT IN THE BOOKS the odds change and the remaining number of possible individual outcomes is reduced, cut in
half in fact. Most obviously gone from the realm of possibility is a 5-0 ATL sweep while the odds on the remaining ones shift to reflect the ongoing reality.
So as we stand now heading into Game 2:
Mets go 5-0 [4-0 from here] = 6.3%
Mets go 4-1 [3-1] = 25%
Mets go 3-2 [2-2] = 37.5%
Mets go 2-3 [1-3] = 25%
Mets go 1-4 [0-4] = 6.3%
As you can see, the Mets winning the series 3-2 is the most likely individual outcome, but their odds of winning big vastly trump those of the Braves doing
the same and it all adds up to giving the Mets a better than 2-1 shot at gaining ground this weekend (68.8%) while dropping the Braves' odds to 31.3%
(again, rounding).
An Atlanta win tonight would further reduce the potential outcomes and throw the end results right back to even odds for each. And after looking at what
a win is the opening game did to the odds of a positive NYM outcome, I don't think I need to stress what a second win tonight would do to those chances.
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