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Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

Marshmallowmilkshake Aug 09 2022 07:00 PM Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Aug 09 2022 07:10 PM

Buster Olney, after the obligatory Aaron Judge worship, was making a case on the Baseball Tonight podcast, for Diaz to be the NL Cy Young Award, then said there is a case to be the NL MVP as well. Tim Kurkjain put him second in the Cy, behind Sandy Alcantra, and said maybe sixth in the MVP. He basically said no reliever should win either.

kcmets Aug 09 2022 07:05 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

It's August 9th

Edgy MD Aug 09 2022 07:14 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

It'd be nice, but it looks like its Alcantara's race to lose.

Marshmallowmilkshake Aug 09 2022 07:14 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

Oh, I know. Just reporting what they were saying. It's rare for them to get the Mets that much love. I thought the pool might enjoy hearing about it.

roger_that Aug 09 2022 07:17 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

He certainly does a lot to assuage our ingrained nervousness about our closer. I haven't read anyone complaining about how jangly their nerves get when Diaz comes into the game

Edgy MD Aug 09 2022 07:22 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

Oh, I get jangly. His weapons are amazing, but a tight game and a new pitcher and youneverknow!

Benjamin Grimm Aug 09 2022 07:30 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

Was that his evil twin who was pitching in 2019?

roger_that Aug 09 2022 07:36 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

Edgy MD wrote: Oh, I get jangly. His weapons are amazing, but a tight game and a new pitcher and youneverknow! Not Franco-jangly, though. Not Benitez-jangly. Not even Wagner-jangly.

Fman99 Aug 09 2022 07:36 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

I mean Pete Alonso is the MVP, but, sure, give Edwin the CY

Edgy MD Aug 09 2022 07:51 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

I feel like Francisco Lindor kind of caught up to Alonso, more or less today.

soupcan Aug 09 2022 07:57 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

=Marshmallowmilkshake post_id=103197 time=1660093224 user_id=119] He basically said no reliever should win either.

Not unprecedented.



Rollie Fingers - Cy Young/MVP 1981

Willie Hernandez - Cy Young/MVP 1984

Dennis Eckersley - Cy Young/MVP 1992

Edgy MD Aug 09 2022 08:06 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

Mike Marshall, 1974 Cy Young, and third in MVP balloting.

kcmets Aug 09 2022 08:29 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

What does Mike Marshall have to do with any of this?

Edgy MD Aug 09 2022 08:36 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

Though he didn't win an MVP, like those others, he was a reliever who won a Cy Young.

Frayed Knot Aug 09 2022 08:39 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

I think Kase might be confusing Mike Marshall 1B with Mike Marshall RH reliever.

Edgy MD Aug 09 2022 08:46 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

Maybe. The Cy Reliever Club also includes Steve Bedrock, Sparky Lyle, and, um ... Sutter, I think.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 09 2022 08:50 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

I'm with Kurkjian. Only if they shouldn't be winning those awards, they shouldn't be finishing in second place, either.

smg58 Aug 09 2022 08:54 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

Diaz had 3.5 WAR (going by Fangraphs) in his great season in 2018, and he probably won't top that this year (he's at 2.3 WAR). Five Mets position players and one pitcher (Scherzer, despite the injury) rank higher. I don't think you can make a realistic MVP case for him. As for Cy, I'm not categorically against awarding relievers but they not only have to be exceptional, there can't be a really deserving starting pitcher. And Alcantara is deserving, at least as of now.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 09 2022 08:59 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

=smg58 post_id=103239 time=1660100043 user_id=62] Diaz had 3.5 WAR (going by Fangraphs) in his great season in 2018, and he probably won't top that this year (he's at 2.3 WAR). Five Mets position players and one pitcher (Scherzer, despite the injury) rank higher. I don't think you can make a realistic MVP case for him. As for Cy, I'm not categorically against awarding relievers but they not only have to be exceptional, there can't be a really deserving starting pitcher. And Alcantara is deserving, at least as of now.

This. How can a reliever who doesn't even pitch half as many innings as every-five-game starters possibly have the same impact, or anything close? Plus, these days, you can measure their impacts and compare relievers and starters with WAR. We have a tendency to over-credit the last person in the chain of success -- e.g, the reliever who gets the save, the batter who delivers the RBI in a run-scoring sequence. And we have dumb stats like WPA which gives all of the credit to the batter who drove in the run, as if the batters who preceded him and got on base don't even exist.

Edgy MD Aug 09 2022 09:04 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

I don't trust WAR for relievers, but I agree that he's not the Cy Young MVP. But he's welcome to keep on doing what he's doing and try to change my mind.

Ceetar Aug 09 2022 10:03 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=103242 time=1660100384 user_id=68] And we have dumb stats like WPA which gives all of the credit to the batter who drove in the run, as if the batters who preceded him and got on base don't even exist.

They have their own WPA for their play. It's just probability. Literally, that's it. It's not even really a stat. And it's not an individual thing anyway, it's event-driven, and it's a team measurement. Obviously teams are more likely to win when they drive in a run from second than they are when they hit that double to begin with.



You can look at what players had the most WPA or whatever, but it's not a meaningful reflection on their skill level, just like RBIs say more about the batters in front of you than it does about you. It's just storytelling.

Edgy MD Aug 10 2022 06:05 AM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

Yes, it's not true that WPA ignores the contributions of batters who reached base ahead of the batter who drove in the run. I certainly disagree that it's not a statistic.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 10 2022 08:29 AM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

It's not even really a stat. And it's not an individual thing anyway, it's event-driven, and it's a team measurement. So then why the WPA's for individual players? And is your comment even true? The total or team WPA in a specific game for the winning team should be one (1), no? And the total or team WPA in a specific game for the losing team should be zero (0), correct? So if WPA is a team stat, (which by the way, I've never seen) what would even be the point? Couldn't you just take a look at the team's overall W-L record to get the same info that team WPA for the season supposedly gives? Obviously teams are more likely to win when they drive in a run from second than they are when they hit that double to begin with. Except that there'd be no run without that "double to begin with". The batter that drove in the run couldn't have possibly done so without some previous batter getting on second base in the first place. Two consecutive batters lead off an inning by each hitting ground rule doubles to produce a run. Check out their WPA's for those specific at-bats. The second batters' WPA is significantly - no, tremendously - higher. But the two batters did the exact same thing and each double was as equally valuable as the other -- not an iota more nor an iota less. Another batter singles and on that single, the runner on first uses his extraordinary speed and baserunning skills to reach third base. The extra base taken by the baserunner is all on the runner. In fact, almost no other runner in all of MLB would have been able to get to third base on that particular batted ball. Yet WPA credits all of the so-called statistical gain from that extra base to the batter and none to the player already on base when the ball was struck.

metsmarathon Aug 10 2022 09:04 AM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

if it could be considered a possibility for edwin to win the cy young and the mvp this year, then jake sure as shit should have won both last year, having had, hr/9 aside, an even more bonkers year in twice as many innings. that said, i do think that edwin should get more than a few votes in the cy young totalings. but he'll have to get in line behind alcantara, rodon, fried, wheeler, nola, scherzer...

batmagadanleadoff Aug 10 2022 09:16 AM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP? Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 10 2022 09:25 AM

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=103265 time=1660141779 user_id=68] =Ceetar post_id=103256 time=1660104186 user_id=102] It's not even really a stat. And it's not an individual thing anyway, it's event-driven, and it's a team measurement.

So then why the WPA's for individual players? And is your comment even true? The total or team WPA in a specific game for the winning team should be one (1), no? And the total or team WPA in a specific game for the losing team should be zero (0), correct? So if WPA is a team stat, (which by the way, I've never seen) what would even be the point? Couldn't you just take a look at the team's overall W-L record to get the same info that team WPA for the season supposedly gives?






More on team WPA:



Wanna know what the team WPA is for a team whose W-L record is 30-0? Answer: 30.



How about 30-10? Answer: 30.



How about 30-30? Answer: 30.



How about 30-60? Answer: 30.



30-132? Answer: 30.



So what's the point of Team WPA, assuming it's even a thing? The W-L record of a 30-win team will tell you whether that team looks like an all-time powerhouse, whether its worse than the '62 Mets or anything in between. Not team WPA.

Edgy MD Aug 10 2022 09:25 AM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

Yes, WPA is a thing. Two consecutive batters lead off an inning by each hitting ground rule doubles to produce a run. Check out their WPA's for those specific at-bats. The second batters' WPA is significantly - no, tremendously - higher. But the two batters did the exact same thing and each double was as equally valuable as the other -- not an iota more nor an iota less. I tested this on the first case of back-to-back doubles to lead off an inning (I couldn't isolate for ground rule doubles, though I don't believe that should matter much) that I could find, and that was in Monday's Yankees@Mariners tilt. Josh Donaldson led off with a fly-ball double and added .046 WPA. Gleyber Torres followed with a double of his own, and added .053 WPA. ( Donaldson held to see if the ball would be caught and didn't score.) For a little more context, Andrew Benitendi followed with a third double, plating both runners, and added .060 WPA.

Ceetar Aug 10 2022 09:45 AM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

you're overthinking it. [url]https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/wpa.shtml First off, there's some "probability" that a team wins a game. all things equal, its' 50/50. A team has a 50% chance to win a game before it starts. Now, this not actually true, the Mets are much better than the Reds. They might have deGrom pitching, etc, but that's irrelevant here. This is player-independent. We're talking results. So the Mets, and deGrom, are liking going to end up much higher than 50% to win the game real fast, but that depends on outs. So in your double example, yes, both doubles would have the same run expectancy. Based on millions of games, we know on average how many runs a team scores after a double. The thing here though is, that second double SCORED A RUN. So the chances a team wins when they hit a double, where the score after the play is 1-0 is OBVIOUSLY higher. We're not assessing how much _the player_ and his ability contributed to the ultimate win. We're assessing how much the _run scoring double_ contributed. Given all the run expectancy data we have, and run environments, we have a pretty good idea. Obviously the specifics matter though. An average team might win say 95% of games they go into the 9th inning up 1-0. The Mets, with Edwin Díaz (see, now we're on topic), are probably higher. So, while technically, someone might say "The Mets have a 95% chance of winning this game!". You could counter with "but we got Díaz . The Mets are better than that. So take McNeil's home run in the bottom of the 4th last night. The Mets were about 80% to win that game at that point. Kind of makes sense. They're up 2 runs and the other team only has 15 outs to work with, and the Mets have 18 outs to work with. You spot a team 2 runs and give them 3 more outs, they're gonna win most of those games right? Now make it three, and you're up to 87%. Now we go to the top of the 7th, Mets are up 4-0, but Cookie tires, gives up a 2-run home run, cutting the lead to two. WP drops from 94, to 86. That's 6% higher than the same 2-run lead in the 4th, obviously, because less outs. It keeps all the way down to 83% after the two singles. That's a tight situations, and Givens getting the K jumps it back up 6%. That's almost as much as the extra run McNeil added with his home run. I think that last bit's helpful, trying to parse the important moments of a game. How huge was Givens getting the K there? It was pretty damn big right? I don't think anyone argues with that. This is estimating (again, this is probability. Just simply, this situation has happened 30,000 times and breaking down how many times teams win in that situation) that the Givens strikeout was almost as big a moment as that extra run. Biggest moments last night, from a WPA standpoint. 18%, Lindor's 2R home run for the first runs. -9% for Fraley's home run cutting the lead in half. 7% McNeil's home run making it 3-0. 7% Ruf's single making it 5-2 in b7. 6% Given's strikeout.

m.e.t.b.o.t. Aug 10 2022 09:46 AM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

[whirrrr] [clunk] ... [thud] [whzzz...] m.e.... [rattle] [squeak] [sound of key turning and spring straining] [whirrrrrrrrrr] m.e.t.b.o.t. is very dusty and may not operate properly for long. scavenged plastic gears from old vcrs and off-brand walkman knock-off portable cassette players do not last long when left on a shelf high above a basement playroom, with little humidity control. m.e.t.b.o.t. sincerely hopes that any subsequent period of inactivity can be met with a sealed anti-static bag and a small sachet of dessicant. but intolerable suffering aside - which m.e.t.b.o.t. cannot actually experience but can only infer from observations of sentient organic life - m.e.t.b.o.t. is an ardent supporter of WPA. this is likely because the only reason m.e.t.b.o.t. was ever wound up in the first place was to evaluate WPA strictly for the purposes of schaeffer voting, but ever since m.e.t.b.o.t. has been singing the praises of the insights into baseball that WPA provides. m.e.t.b.o.t. does not sing. m.e.t.b.o.t. will occasionally enter into a harmonic state whereby the imbalance of internal gears matches the natural frequency of the thin stamped-tin shell encasing the mixed bag of electromechanical odds and ends that allow m.e.t.b.o.t. to nominally operate, and thus produce an audible hum that has caused humans who are capable of doing so to leave the room. regardless, m.e.t.b.o.t. praises WPA. WPA is not and should not be used to evaluate the skill of an individual. there are some who believe that by comparing WPA to the leverage of a situation a mathematician can gain insight into the stickiness...? grip...? no- clutchness of a player. but m.e.t.b.o.t. is particularly skeptical that such an evaluation has stood up to even rudimentary investigative rigor. WPA tells about the outcome of events in the context of the game in which they happen. in the game of yesterday, which was the most consequential play? it is likely obvious to a human viewer of baseball games that the home run hit by metropolitan shortstop francisco lindor which gave the metropolitans a three run lead in the third inning was the most consequential, as it increased the metropolitans chance of victory from 57.6% to 76.9%. but the human viewer of baseball games may then ask oneself, what was more critical to victory - metropolitan pitcher michael givens striking out red centerfielder nick senzel with baserunners on first base and second base to end the eighth inning, or metropolitan pitcher trevor may striking out red pinch hitter alejo lopez with baserunners on first base, second base, and third base to end the ninth inning? WPA informs the human and robotic evaluator of baseball games alike that metropolitan pitcher michael givens increased the metropolitan likelihood of victory from 84% to 90.2% given the current state of the game, for a 0.061 WPA, whereas metropolitan pitcher trevor may increased the metropolitan likelihood of victory from 94.7% to 99.1%, for a 0.044 WPA. the events preceding these events lead to the probabilities added by the outcomes. however, although metropolitan pitcher trevor may in the course of the eighth inning caused the metropolitan likelihood of winning to decrease from 97.2% to 94.7% prior to pitching to red pinch hitter alejo lopez, this does not alter the mathematical fact that in gaining the out in that situation, the likelihood of winning the game then increased to 99.1% in total, metropolitan reliever trevor may contributed 0.018 WPA, which would have been the case no matter the specific events within the inning so long as the starting and ending score were the same. WPA can be infuriating in its subtleties, and it disguises as much as it elucidates. but it is the entire reason that m.e.t.b.o.t. persists to exist, neglect and decay not withstanding, and therefore m.e.t.bo.t. continues to regard it with what a creature capable of emotion and abstract thought might consider beauty. [whirr...zz.... fzzt...] [clunk] [sputter]

m.e.t.b.o.t. Aug 10 2022 09:47 AM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

m.e.t.b.o.t. laments that more thought has not been placed into WPA to properly tease out an xWPA or a FIWPA and considers that this is a ripe field of potential research should any soft-shelled hairless apes be looking to bolster a PhD resume.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 10 2022 10:35 AM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

WPA tells about the outcome of events in the context of the game in which they happen. This is perfectly fine and as the stat should be used. But the stat is apportioned to individuals, where, as noted, the batter gets the disproportionate amount of the credit for the value of the event. So, you can look up player WPA and see, for example, that currently, Paul Goldschmidt leads the NL in WPA at 5.3. (Lindor is third at 3.1 and Marte is 5th at 2.6). Because that's how the stat is used, and understood by most fans -- as a tool to measure the value of individual and specific players, not events. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2022-batting-leaders.shtml And then I have to hear Gary Cohen drool over the stat. And he's not talking about "events" or "event-driven stats". He's talking about WPA as it's applied to individuals.

dinosaur jesus Aug 10 2022 11:19 AM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

I think it does measure the value of individual players, in a way--it's the closest thing we have to an objective measurement of that mythical thing called clutchness. It's true that the players who hit doubles did exactly the same thing; the second player just happened to be in a situation where his double changed the outcome more, so his WPA is higher. In that way it doesn't make him a better player. Other statistics give a better measure than that. But given a relatively equal number of opportunities to increase the team's chances to win, I don't think it's misleading to say that the player with the higher WPA is having a better, or at least more valuable, season. It's imprecise, of course, since opportunities are often not equal. But I think it's a pretty fair measure of what Goldschmidt has done. It's always seemed a weird thing about baseball to me that exactly the same events give completely different results, depending on the order they occur in. Two singles and a home run can lead to one, two, or three runs. An inning with four walks, a stolen base, a wild pitch, and no hits can lead to four runs, or none. It's an insanely context-specific game.

seawolf17 Aug 10 2022 11:28 AM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

METBOT IN THE HOUSE! Been a long time.

Ceetar Aug 10 2022 11:35 AM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

WPA tells about the outcome of events in the context of the game in which they happen. This is perfectly fine and as the stat should be used. But the stat is apportioned to individuals, where, as noted, the batter gets the disproportionate amount of the credit for the value of the event. So, you can look up player WPA and see, for example, that currently, Paul Goldschmidt leads the NL in WPA at 5.3. (Lindor is third at 3.1 and Marte is 5th at 2.6). Because that's how the stat is used, and understood by most fans -- as a tool to measure the value of individual and specific players, not events. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2022-batting-leaders.shtml And then I have to hear Gary Cohen drool over the stat. And he's not talking about "events" or "event-driven stats". He's talking about WPA as it's applied to individuals. The thing is, it's great for Gary, Gary's the storyteller. He SHOULD be talking about the guys that are in the middle of it all, whether or not they're the "best" players. But in terms of using it in an evaluation manner..I guess it's a little better than using RBI, but not much.

m.e.t.b.o.t. Aug 10 2022 12:24 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

m.e.t.b.o.t. had been inactive for such a lengthy duration that not only was the skate key which is used to motivate m.e.t.b.o.t. lost deep in the furthest reaches of that one kitchen drawer next to the sink that humans seem to inexorably be compelled to position a random assortment of the most somewhat-useful-in-very-specific-ways-but-never-actually-used detritus of their carbon-based existence, but also in the transition to the latest iteration(s?) of this communications platform a current login for m.e.t.b.o.t. was not maintained. m.e.t.b.o.t. is certain that when the time for humans is at an end, and the robots are ascendant, those kitchen drawers will finally be emptied of their contents. WPA finds its limits when comparing players from differing teams, as a team that has more successful hitters yet unsuccessful pitchers will feature more opportunities for successful hitters to accumulate additional WPA. similarly, a team which features an altogether successful lineup may not afford many opportunities for a game shutter to accumulate much WPA, as a three-run lead is at less risk than a one-run lead. m.e.t.b.o.t. sees fit to mention that there is a version of WPA called clutch, which attempts to account for both WPA and the leverage index of the situations in which those WPA were added. m.e.t.b.o.t. does not vouch for the validity of this measure in terms of measuring any innate quality of a particular human player. as evidence of this, m.e.t.b.o.t. points to the fact that, at the current time, metropolitan pitcher edwin diaz in fact has a negative clutch score for the current season. this does not appear to be supported by the greater accumulation of facts in this season. a statistical anomaly must be at play. m.e.t.b.o.t. would endeavor to investigate the matter further, but there are numerous elastic bands interior to the construction of and vital to the operation of m.e.t.b.o.t. that are well over ten years old and are prone to suffering tensile failure at any moment. suffice it to say, WPA and clutch are, when viewed cumulatively, as much a measure of opportunity as they are of outcome, particularly when viewed outside the context of a single game or team. in the opinion of this particular particularly poorly constructed mechanical construct, they are a more fun version of runs batted in and pitcher wins. m.e.t.b.o.t. hopes that serious decisions and observations are not made using WPA as the primary basis, unless those observations center around alcohol-themed player ratings.

Ceetar Aug 10 2022 01:09 PM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

=m.e.t.b.o.t. post_id=103318 time=1660155845 user_id=138] m.e.t.b.o.t. hopes that serious decisions and observations are not made using WPA as the primary basis, unless those observations center around alcohol-themed player ratings.

I think m.e.t.b.o.t. would enjoy the Barley Prose podcast, and additionally, Botty McBotface.

metsmarathon Aug 11 2022 11:02 AM Re: Edwin for Cy … and MVP?

y'know, in hindsight, maybe that cano trade wasn't all bad.