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The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

batmagadanleadoff Aug 14 2022 10:43 AM

For starters, I never ever heard of a pitcher deGrom's age missing a whole calendar year of baseball due to injury and not coming back diminished.

MFS62 Aug 14 2022 10:53 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

For starters, I never ever heard of a pitcher deGrom's age missing a whole calendar year of baseball due to injury and not coming back diminished. FYI- Not sure about their ages, but here's a list. https://www.mlb.com/news/top-10-tommy-john-surgery-success-stories-c295719048 OE: Jake was 31/32 Smoltz was 32 and Wainwright was 29. Wells had it before he reached the majors (23) and pitched another 21 years. Later

batmagadanleadoff Aug 14 2022 11:04 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

Yeah, I thought of Tommy John right after I posted. He may have been even better after returning. But he definitely wasnt throwing 102MPH heaters or 96MPH wipeout sliders that look just like fastballs coming out, especially if the batter has difficulty picking up the spin. And deGrom might be even better, too. Granted it's only been 16 IP's so far.

Edgy MD Aug 14 2022 11:15 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

I think one difference is that he wasn't exactly injured. Worn, stressed and fatigued, yes, but not really broken. I tend to thing in another generation, deGrom's "stress reaction" would have been otherwise diagnosed, and he would have been back in the rotation in a few weeks. And though he'd pitch with excess soreness and be a lesser specimen, that would be considered part of the game, and it would be up to him to learn to work with less, or fade from the top top of the pack. And maybe a season and half later he'd return to form, or maybe he'd have another good season but be relying on different stuff.

MFS62 Aug 14 2022 11:16 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=103872 time=1660496693 user_id=68] Yeah, I thought of Tommy John right after I posted. He may have been even better after returning. But he definitely wasnt throwing 102MPH heaters or 96MPH wipeout sliders that look just like fastballs coming out, especially if the batter has difficulty picking up the spin. And deGrom might be even better, too. Granted it's only been 16 IP's so far.

Agreed.

Later

Edgy MD Aug 14 2022 11:27 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

It's been 16 innings, but two of his three starts have been against impressive offensive lineups, and his strikeouts are somehow up from last year (14.3 to 15.1 per nine) and his walks are down (1.1 to 0.5). His strikeout:walk ratio is an unfathomable 28:1. If he was playing in any other league, it would be ridiculous that he hadn't been called up yet. The only reason his ERA isn't lower is that his one and only walk was followed by his one and only home run allowed.

nymr83 Aug 15 2022 12:00 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

Smoltz isn't really comparable - he came back for 4 years as a reliever and then became a starter again. I don't know what that means for deGrom handling a starter's workload all year next year.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 15 2022 09:00 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

Edgy MD wrote: It's been 16 innings, but two of his three starts have been against impressive offensive lineups, and his strikeouts are somehow up from last year (14.3 to 15.1 per nine) and his walks are down (1.1 to 0.5). His strikeout:walk ratio is an unfathomable 28:1. If he was playing in any other league, it would be ridiculous that he hadn't been called up yet. He's a freak. He'll be 35 and he's been in the big leagues for nine seasons, now. He should be slowing down on age alone, and even if he had no major health issues to date. Yet he's throwing harder, more often and he appears to be, at the very least, as unhittable as he was last season when, rate-wise, he was having the best pitching season in the history of baseball. Edgy MD wrote: The only reason his ERA isn't lower is that his one and only walk was followed by his one and only home run allowed. Very small sample. His pitches are harder to hit this year than last. If this holds up, he might make $50M a year in his next contract.

seawolf17 Aug 15 2022 09:04 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

Edgy MD wrote: The only reason his ERA isn't lower is that his one and only walk was followed by his one and only home run allowed. And what feeds the "dude's an robot" thing is that Buck said he had a 75 pitch cap and that home run was on pitch 76.

Ceetar Aug 15 2022 09:55 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=103965 time=1660575627 user_id=68] He's a freak. He'll be 35 and he's been in the big leagues for nine seasons, now. He should be slowing down on age alone, and even if he had no major health issues to date. Yet he's throwing harder, more often and he appears to be, at the very least, as unhittable as he was last season when, rate-wise, he was having the best pitching season in the history of baseball.

Is there truth to this? the age alone thing? I can't quite figure out the query to test it, but it's easy to find tons of examples where players exceled in their age 34 season.



Verlander

John Tudor had a 149 ERA+ compared to his 124 average.

Chris Carpenter led the league in ERA in his age 34 season. 2.24 against his 3.76 career average.

Lance Lynn last year had a 163 vs career 116.

Anibel Sanchez had a 144 ERA+ in his age 34 season, compared to 102 otherwise. He had a good age 35 season too. His age 33 season was terrible though.

charlie Morton also.



I think there's more guys that flame out and can't keep healthy into age 34, but the ones that do aren't necessarily worse off or declining or anything. Sure, some switch it up, velocity for control, etc. But Some Rich Hill it up and just understand pitching and their bodies better.

deGrom's recent issues, depending on how much truth you take from the antagonistic nature of the Mets to talk about this stuff ,and the aggregation nature of the media to just accept what they're given and not push, were a healed tear in the UCL and an almost nothing stress reaction in his scapula, which there's not a lot of clear info on. And because it's pitching and bodies and biology, we don't even know if those things were just random, a result of strain from pitching, etc.

And also he hasn't been idle. He pitched in the minors late last year, and threw some spring training this season too. Competitive games, no, but muscle memory and just general fitness/reps have been there. He finishes this year healthy and at anything even approaching is career norm, Cohen's gonna have to give him a stake in the Shea casino or whatever.

Edgy MD Aug 15 2022 09:59 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

I think (and hope) that his continued effectiveness is in part a result of this super-kid gloves (like, infant gloves) policy the Mets have had, getting him off the field, for significant time, before a condition turns into an injury. Also, I tend not to think of pitchers declining the way other athletes do. Their skills don't fade as much with age, so much as with mileage.

MFS62 Aug 15 2022 10:51 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

Edgy MD wrote: Also, I tend not to think of pitchers declining the way other athletes do. Their skills don't fade as much with age, so much as with mileage. WRT mileage, didn't we have a discussion a few years ago about Jake starting pitching later in his career, so he hadn't pitched as many innings as many pitchers of a comparable age? Some CPF-ers mentioned that this might prolong his effectiveness. Later

kcmets Aug 15 2022 11:02 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

=Ceetar post_id=103968 time=1660578908 user_id=102]depending on how much truth you take from the antagonistic nature of the Mets to talk about this stuff ,and the aggregation nature of the media to just accept what they're given and not push

I watch pretty much every post-game show either live or the following day

and I sense no antagonism nor your described nature of the media.



It's just more alternate-reality stuff that doesn't really exist to anyone paying

truthful attention to details and not looking for smoke where there's no fire.

Ceetar Aug 15 2022 11:31 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

depending on how much truth you take from the antagonistic nature of the Mets to talk about this stuff ,and the aggregation nature of the media to just accept what they're given and not push I watch pretty much every post-game show either live or the following day and I sense no antagonism nor your described nature of the media. It's just more alternate-reality stuff that doesn't really exist to anyone paying truthful attention to details and not looking for smoke where there's no fire. Per Tim Healey, Alderson addressed the situation by saying, “Somebody goes out with a headline that it's a partial tear, that's what a bruise is. A bruise is a partial tear of the muscle, OK? So let's not go out there and write as if this is anything new. It's not. It's a very low-grade thing that has resolved itself.” seems antagonistic to me. And of course, there was literally zero follow up on that, and I don't even recall it being mentioned much this spring. The beat follows up on roughly zero stories, they write what they're told. You can go the other direction in time as well, the Mets had been insisting the MRI of deGrom's elbow were clean up until that point. Which is why the news was a little surprising. So it was clean, then it wasn't but it is now, and then who knows? Would it be really that far-fetched to think that maybe their was elbow discomfort AND a mild stress reaction and that they chose to focus on the one and obscure the other? What's going to happen, he's gonna win a ring and the Mets are gonna be like "oh, btw, his arm is in tatters. He can take 3/30 to stay here or try his luck when other teams see his scans."?

seawolf17 Aug 15 2022 11:46 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

Thing is, either one of two things will happen from this point forward. Either (a) he's ineffective or his arm falls off, in which case there's no way he voids his last two years and we kick this can down the road, or (b) he deGroms the rest of this season, in which case Cohen gives him a lifetime contract.

kcmets Aug 15 2022 11:49 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

=Ceetar post_id=103975 time=1660584712 user_id=102]seems antagonistic to me.

Seems truthful and straight-forward to me. As usual, our mileages vary...

Ceetar Aug 15 2022 12:01 PM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

OK? So let's not go out there and write as if this is anything new. IT WAS NEW! They didn't tell anyone! Literally telling them what they should write. It's either antagonistic or he's the one in charge of what they write. So, I guess a little a, a little b.. =seawolf17 post_id=103976 time=1660585619 user_id=91] Thing is, either one of two things will happen from this point forward. Either (a) he's ineffective or his arm falls off, in which case there's no way he voids his last two years and we kick this can down the road, or (b) he deGroms the rest of this season, in which case Cohen gives him a lifetime contract.

I don't trust Cohen (or Alderson) to really understand or care about the fan emotions here. I'm worried that if they think deGrom is a ticking time bomb, or simply not worth what he's going to command if he finishes this season healthy, and we'll get that fun moment Atlanta fans had when Freeman returned this year to get his ring. I can absolutely see either of them looking at the prospect of paying 2 35+ pitchers 90 million a year as a poor use of resources.

soupcan Aug 15 2022 12:59 PM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

If deGrom stays healthy and effective through the end of this year, there's no way the Steve Cohen Mets let him walk.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 15 2022 01:21 PM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

Have some more deGrom, but with a pairing of Scherzer: Scherzer and deGrom Are Great. But How Great? By Rob Neyer Aug. 15, 2022Updated 9:48 a.m. ET Excerpt: From 2016 to 2019, the National League's four Cy Young Awards all went to Scherzer (then a Washington National) or deGrom (so far, a career Met). From 2016 to 2019, only two N.L. pitchers earned more than 20 wins above replacement: Scherzer (27) and deGrom (24). With Scherzer and deGrom paired together, it's easy to imagine that they'll make a great team only greater. How couldn't they? The last two weeks have given us a glimpse of what they can be, and it has been fairly spectacular. Scherzer and deGrom — in that order, thus far — have started back-to-back games three times, and even with deGrom still building up his endurance, they have mostly lived up to their billing: 37⅓ innings, 25 hits, six earned runs, three walks … and 50 strikeouts. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/15/sports/baseball/mets-degrom-scherzer.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=Sports

nymr83 Aug 15 2022 04:44 PM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

It sounds like you are saying you want degrom back next year even if the Mets medical staff tells the front office its a bad idea? I dont think I'm on board with that. I mean sure I would want to offer him a one year deal and take my chances anyway, but if the medicals say his arm is shot you keed to let someone else hand out the long term stinker deal

Benjamin Grimm Aug 15 2022 04:49 PM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

I doubt that there will be anything that definitive though.

whippoorwill Aug 15 2022 04:50 PM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

I'd offer one year only. And no player would agree to that.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 28 2022 08:06 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

The New York Post wrote: If it's up to Steve Cohen and his deep pockets, Jacob deGrom will remain in Queens. The Mets' owner seemed prepared to do whatever it takes to keep the ace right-hander a Met after he opts out of the final two years of his contract that would pay him an average of $31 million, as deGrom has said on multiple occasions he plans to do. “Listen, he certainly has the right to do that. We love Jacob, and I think he's the best pitcher in baseball,” Cohen told The Post on Saturday before the Mets hosted the Rockies at Citi Field. “We'll do whatever we can to make sure he stays. But it's his decision, not ours.”

Benjamin Grimm Oct 03 2022 10:50 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

It's possible that deGrom has pitched his last regular-season game as a Met. If so, his final Toyota numbers are 82 wins (tied with Jon Matlack for 7th place) and 57 losses (13th place), with a 2.52 ERA (best among pitchers with 500 or more innings; Tom Seaver's Mets ERA was 2.57) in 1,326 innings (8th place). 209 games (27th place), all as a starter (7th in starts). 1,607 strikeouts (4th place) and 303 walks (19th place). He's 192 strikeouts behind Jerry Koosman and 268 behind Dwight Gooden. Those numbers are within reach if he returns. Seaver is ahead of him by 934 strikeouts. DeGrom is very unlikely to get anywhere close to that. He only trails Seaver by one Cy Young award, however.

Frayed Knot Oct 03 2022 11:05 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

But despite all those stats, did the Mets as a team ever get to .500+ in JdG started games?

Benjamin Grimm Oct 03 2022 11:12 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

According to the Ultimate Mets Database: Mets record in games started by Jacob deGrom 2014: (11-11) 2015: (20-10) 2016: (12-12) 2017: (17-14) 2018: (14-18) 2019: (14-18) 2020: (8-4) 2021: (11-4) 2022: (6-5) That's 113 wins and 96 losses.

Frayed Knot Oct 03 2022 11:35 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

So, generally at least, the team did better when he was merely good (2015 alone accounts for almost the entire +.500 margin) then would struggle to tread water during the times he was at his best (8 games under for 2018-9).

Centerfield Oct 03 2022 11:37 AM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

deGrom just finished his age 34 season. How many dominant years do you think he has left? 2? Maybe 3? It will be interesting if Cohen is willing to pay him 5 years for 3 good ones.

Edgy MD Oct 03 2022 01:13 PM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

I imagine he will be. The question is whether another team is willing pay him seven years for three good ones. But there's plenty of time for hot-stovin'.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 03 2022 01:49 PM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

I don't think hot-stoving needs to be deferred. I'm sure the Mets front office is talking about 2023 despite 2022 not being over yet, so we can too. Steve Cohen has said that there's a ceiling to how much he's willing for the Mets payroll to be, so he may have to consider whether or not he wants to go big for deGrom. Alonso is due for a big payday soon, and Nimmo and Diaz (among others) are free agents.

Ceetar Oct 03 2022 01:53 PM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

And we don't know how much he's gonna take the leash off of Eppler, and how much micro managing he's going to do, or if/when they replace Sandy and how that person is involved..

Edgy MD Oct 03 2022 02:02 PM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

It's gonna be a mad off-season. The Mets have, like, a billion guys (that number isn't confirmed) in their walk year. deGrom may not even be their biggest challenge. And yeah, I think the presidency is going to possibly have to come first.

Lefty Specialist Oct 03 2022 02:17 PM Re: The now annual Jacob deGrom deserves his own thread thread

=Centerfield post_id=109778 time=1664818666 user_id=65] deGrom just finished his age 34 season. How many dominant years do you think he has left? 2? Maybe 3? It will be interesting if Cohen is willing to pay him 5 years for 3 good ones.

DeGrom is going to want 'Scherzer money' to start. I wouldn't be surprised if they let him walk. He's a substantial injury risk these days, and he seems to have come down to earth a little bit this year. You can get 2-3 pretty good pitchers for the price of one deGrom.



They need to sign Nimmo, Diaz and craft a contract to keep Alonso for a bunch of years, among other things. And if they're going to hire a President, they need to do it right away, not hang around for a month or two while all the musical free-agent/trading chairs are going on.