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538: Diaz and Lindor

batmagadanleadoff Aug 17 2022 09:28 AM

Edwin Díaz And Francisco Lindor Aren't Busts Anymore — And Neither Are The Mets By Robert O'Connell Aug. 16, 2022, at 6:00 AM Excerpt: The National League East, a toss-up three weeks ago, now has the 75-40 Mets 5.5 games clear of Atlanta; FiveThirtyEight gives them a 95 percent chance of making the division series.1 Among the biggest reasons? That Díaz and shortstop Francisco Lindor — who prior to this season looked like the latest in the franchise's tradition of sunk-cost disappointments — have turned into the cornerstones they were brought on to be. The Mets traded for Díaz before the 2019 season as the headliner in a bizarro blockbuster that also brought Robinson Canó to Queens, and Díaz — who had led baseball with 57 saves in his last year with Seattle — set about stinking up the joint. He blew seven of his 33 save opportunities, and his ERA swelled from 1.96 to 5.59. Across 58 innings, he gave up 15 homers, a pair of them coming during a nightmarish outing in Philadelphia in late June, when the Phillies plated five ninth-inning runs in a walkoff win. “I always try to stay positive,” Díaz told the New York Times a couple days after that loss, whose saving grace was that it came on the road and therefore shielded him from what had become customary home-crowd nastiness. “I've had a couple ups and downs this year.” Over the seasons that followed, Díaz mostly staved off disasters of quite that scale, even if he couldn't regain his perch among baseball's preeminent closers. In the COVID-19-shortened 2020, he managed a 1.75 ERA, with walk-heavy underlying stats that suggested the kindness of sympathetic angels. In 2021, the ERA leveled out at 3.45 and seemed like it would stay about there going forward. Like so many shooting-star relievers, Díaz was able to access his former dominance only occasionally. Read it all at: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/edwin-diaz-and-francisco-lindor-arent-busts-anymore-and-neither-are-the-mets/

Ceetar Aug 17 2022 10:21 AM Re: 538: Diaz and Lindor

They were never busts, particularly not last year. If you want to make a case for the 2019 Díaz/ballchange disaster, sure, but he was good last year and in 2020. Lindor had a bad first third or so, at worst. And the "toss-up" three weeks ago is overblown, The Mets were still the significant favorite to win the division by most projection systems.

kcmets Aug 17 2022 02:00 PM Re: 538: Diaz and Lindor

No longer collective busts and neither are the Mets is not a dramatic rabbit hole I'm going down from a guy who probably doesn't watch.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 18 2022 09:55 AM Re: 538: Diaz and Lindor

Diaz was absolutely toxic in 2019. Here's a great line on Diaz's first three years with the Mets from this well-written piece: Like so many shooting-star relievers, Díaz was able to access his former dominance only occasionally. And Lindor's Mets debut? The Mets' Francisco Lindor isn't in a slump. He's in a three-year slide. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/06/01/mets-francisco-lindor-isnt-slump-hes-three-year-slide/ He spent much of 2021 barely above the Mendoza Line, single-handedly murdering the Mets offense as he was a permanent fixture of the lineup, batting near the very top of it daily. And his "three year slide" duly noted in The WAPO article linked to above as well as in many other sources, especially local ones, had many Mets fans wondering if they had gotten another George Foster.

G-Fafif Aug 18 2022 10:46 AM Re: 538: Diaz and Lindor

The 538 article underscores the most challenging aspects of fandom: patience and perspective. We grasp between the sample sizes that make us feel good and the sample sizes that make us feel savvy. Literally one pitch prior to his hitting a particularly clutch home run, following a few tough weeks, I groaned to a friend that we were stuck with Lindor for another ten years, I haven't groaned on the topic since. And when the Mets signed Trevor May, my thinking was “I hope this guy's as good as he's said to be and maybe they'll stockpile relievers like him and fool some GM into believing Diaz has it together again so we can get something for him.” Conversely, when they're doing well, they'll never make an out or surrender a run, I am certain.

Ceetar Aug 18 2022 11:14 AM Re: 538: Diaz and Lindor

Lindor's 2019 was his career average wRC+ of 118. His 2019-through to 6/1 when the article was written, he had a 106 wRC+. .328 OBP. (career .343) 12 fWAR in those three years btw. Yes, that's a little down? But those are arbitrary end points. So in the first two months of his Mets career, Lindor had a .212 BABIP with a 89.8 average EV. (his career BABIP is just below .300 and his EV is 89.9. So he's still hitting the ball hard, but it's not finding dirt. His BB% for his career, 8.6% and it was 11.5% in the first two months of 2021. K% career average. It's really just the power. His HardHit% was 41.4% in those months, compared to 38.6% career. His Barrel percentage was down, and his LA down about a degree and a half, but I can't see how to look at these numbers and think Lindor is done. My first thought is new team, new coaching, maybe there was something he was trying to work on with the Mets that wasn't working for him. Anyway, after those first two bad months, Francisco Lindor has hit .278/.347/.475 for a wRC+ of 135. He's 6th. 6th!!!! in fWAR this season. in the Majors. I saw some chatter about Alonso not getting enough MVP discussion, it's LINDOR who should be getting the MVP discussion, but I know voters don't like to factor in defense. We do not appreciate Francisco Lindor enough. As for Díaz? Well, we know the 2019 ball was a gopher ball, and he's hardly alone in struggling with it. After that he mostly returned to form, being a high-K, high-BB guy that was really good. It wasn't until this year when he was able to keep the slider closer to the zone, and down, to stop walking guys. There could be ball-changes there too, I haven't actually looked into if there's been more break or anything like that, or what it is that is keeping the walks away.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 21 2022 06:28 PM Re: 538: Diaz and Lindor

The 538 article underscores the most challenging aspects of fandom: patience and perspective. Yes. Also, "bust" is a term of art that doesn't necessarily have to mean something as atrocious as Jason Bay's last season as a Met.