Master Index of Archived Threads


Reintroducing the NHOP!

Benjamin Grimm Aug 28 2022 08:00 AM

Reintroducing the NHOP! It's like the IHOP, but with fewer varieties of pancake syrup. It stands for Necessary Happy Outcome Percentage. For the Mets to finish ahead of the Braves, things have to go the Mets' way in 47.1 percent of the games that the two teams have remaining on the schedule. This doesn't include the fact that winning one of the remaining head-to-head games would clinch the season series and reduce the magic number by two. That won't be factored in until and unless it actually happens. The Mets have already won the season series against the Phillies and Cardinals, so those magic numbers have been accordingly reduced by one. The Padres have won the season series against the Mets, with Dodgers and Brewers still to be determined. These numbers tell us that while the division and the first-round bye (the Mets would have to meet their NHOP against both the Braves and the Cardinals for the bye) are very much up for grabs, it remains extremely likely that the Mets will at least make the Wild Card series, and probably with the home-field advantage. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]37 [TD]3 [TD]43 [TD].606 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]34 [TD]3 [TD]32 [TD].471 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]35 [TD]0 [TD]26 [TD].377 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]35 [TD]0 [TD]25 [TD].362 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]34 [TD]0 [TD]23 [TD].338 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]37 [TD]3 [TD]22 [TD].310

MFS62 Aug 28 2022 09:25 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

We've been so Cards and Cubs-centric that I'd forgotten that Milwaukee has been back in the NL for 25 years. D'oh! Later

Benjamin Grimm Aug 28 2022 09:21 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

In Sunday's action, we had three Happy Outcomes and four Unhappy Outcomes, although one of the four Unhappies actual counts as a Happy, since it involved the Cardinals beating the Braves. Happy Outcomes: Padres, Phillies, Braves lose. Unhappy Outcomes: Mets lose, Brewers, Dodgers, Cardinals win. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]36 [TD]3 [TD]43 [TD].623 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]33 [TD]3 [TD]31 [TD].470 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]34 [TD]0 [TD]26 [TD].388 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]34 [TD]0 [TD]24 [TD].358 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]33 [TD]0 [TD]22 [TD].333 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]36 [TD]3 [TD]22 [TD].319

whippoorwill Aug 29 2022 06:11 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

This might be a little above me

Benjamin Grimm Aug 30 2022 06:30 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Four Unhappy Outcomes yesterday, wins by the Dodgers, Cardinals, Padres, and Brewers, and only one Happy Outcome: A loss by the Phillies. Mets and Braves were idle. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]35 [TD]3 [TD]43 [TD].632 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]33 [TD]3 [TD]31 [TD].470 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]33 [TD]0 [TD]26 [TD].394 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]33 [TD]0 [TD]23 [TD].348 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]32 [TD]0 [TD]22 [TD].338 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]35 [TD]3 [TD]22 [TD].324

Frayed Knot Aug 30 2022 06:52 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Good news/Bad news days in the not so distant future for NHOP as seven ATL/PHI games* will provide a guaranteed even mix of Happy/Unhappy results. * 3 in Cobb County, GA Sep 16-18; 4 in Philly Sep 22-25

Benjamin Grimm Aug 30 2022 07:49 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

I suspect that by September 22 the Phillies will have fallen off this list. At least I hope so!

Benjamin Grimm Aug 31 2022 06:35 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Four Happy Outcomes yesterday, losses by the Braves, Phillies, Brewers, and Cardinals. Three Unhappy Outcomes: Loss by the Mets, wins by the Dodgers and Padres. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]34 [TD]2 [TD]43 [TD].652 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]32 [TD]3 [TD]30 [TD].469 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]32 [TD]0 [TD]25 [TD].391 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]32 [TD]0 [TD]22 [TD].344 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]31 [TD]0 [TD]22 [TD].349 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]34 [TD]3 [TD]21 [TD].318

Fman99 Aug 31 2022 09:50 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

I'm confused by the magic number - shouldn't the Dodgers have the lowest one? Followed by each of the next best teams by record (ATL, etc)?

Benjamin Grimm Aug 31 2022 09:53 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

All of the Magic Numbers are from the Mets' perspective. The Magic Number for the Mets to finish ahead of the Dodgers is 43. The Dodgers' Magic Number over the Mets is only 25.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 01 2022 06:38 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Only two Happy Outcomes yesterday, the win by the Mets and the loss by the Dodgers. Five Unhappy Outcomes, as the Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Padres, and Brewers all won. But because the Mets won, all of the Magic Numbers have decreased and so have the NHOPs. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]33 [TD]1 [TD]41 [TD].641 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]31 [TD]3 [TD]29 [TD].468 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]31 [TD]0 [TD]24 [TD].387 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]31 [TD]0 [TD]21 [TD].339 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]30 [TD]0 [TD]21 [TD].344 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]33 [TD]3 [TD]20 [TD].313

Lefty Specialist Sep 01 2022 07:00 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Things get real when the magic number gets into the 20's.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 01 2022 07:03 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

And the Magic Number for the postseason will soon be in the teens.

Fman99 Sep 01 2022 07:59 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Benjamin Grimm wrote: All of the Magic Numbers are from the Mets' perspective. The Magic Number for the Mets to finish ahead of the Dodgers is 43. The Dodgers' Magic Number over the Mets is only 25. Thanks, that makes more sense.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 02 2022 06:41 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Yesterday's action had three Happy Outcomes: Wins by the Mets and losses by the Dodgers and Brewers, and one Unhappy Outcome, a win by the Braves. The Cardinals, Phillies, and Padres were idle. The Mets' win over the Dodgers clinched the season series, which reduced the Mets' Magic Number over the Dodgers by three, to a still likely unattainable 38. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]32 [TD]0 [TD]38 [TD].613 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]30 [TD]3 [TD]28 [TD].467 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]31 [TD]0 [TD]23 [TD].377 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]31 [TD]0 [TD]20 [TD].328 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]30 [TD]0 [TD]20 [TD].333 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]32 [TD]3 [TD]18 [TD].290

Benjamin Grimm Sep 02 2022 07:25 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

If the Mets play at only a .400 pace the rest of the way (12-18) the Brewers would have to go at least 27-5 (.844) to bump the Mets out of the postseason.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 03 2022 01:53 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Friday's Happy Outcomes: A win for the Mets and losses for Brewers, Phillies, and Dodgers. Unhappy Outcomes: Wins for the Padres, Braves, and Cardinals. The NHOP for the Dodgers has now dropped to .600, and the NHOP over the Brewers is all the way down to .267; this is the one that will get the Mets officially into the postseason. That Magic Number is only 16. Meanwhile, the Padres have moved ahead of the Phillies for the second Wild Card slot. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]31 [TD]0 [TD]36 [TD].600 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]29 [TD]3 [TD]27 [TD].466 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]30 [TD]0 [TD]22 [TD].373 [TD]San Diego [TD]First Wild Card [TD]29 [TD]0 [TD]19 [TD].328 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]30 [TD]0 [TD]18 [TD].305 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]31 [TD]3 [TD]16 [TD].267

Benjamin Grimm Sep 04 2022 07:38 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Only two Happy Outcomes yesterday: Losses by the Phillies and the Padres. Five Unhappy Outcomes: The Mets lost and the Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals, and Brewers all won. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]30 [TD]0 [TD]36 [TD].621 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]28 [TD]3 [TD]27 [TD].482 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]29 [TD]0 [TD]22 [TD].386 [TD]San Diego [TD]First Wild Card [TD]28 [TD]0 [TD]18 [TD].321 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]29 [TD]0 [TD]17 [TD].298 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]30 [TD]3 [TD]16 [TD].276

Benjamin Grimm Sep 05 2022 06:48 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Three Happy Outcomes yesterday: Losses by the Phillies, Brewers, and Padres. But four Unhappy Outcomes: Loss by the Mets, and wins by the Braves, Cardinals, and Dodgers. The good news, such as it is, is that the consolation prize of the Wild Card berth is drawing closer. Magic Number for the postseason is down to a mere 15, with 27 games remaining. The NHOP over the Braves has now risen to .500, meaning that the Mets no longer have an advantage there. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]29 [TD]0 [TD]36 [TD].643 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]27 [TD]3 [TD]27 [TD].500 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]28 [TD]0 [TD]22 [TD].400 [TD]San Diego [TD]First Wild Card [TD]27 [TD]0 [TD]17 [TD].315 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]28 [TD]0 [TD]16 [TD].291 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]29 [TD]3 [TD]15 [TD].268

Benjamin Grimm Sep 06 2022 06:47 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Three Happy Outcomes on Monday, losses by the Cardinals, Padres, and Dodgers. One Unhappy Outcome, a win by the Brewers. Mets were idle due to a rainout, Braves and Phillies weren't on the schedule. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]28 [TD]0 [TD]35 [TD].636 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]27 [TD]3 [TD]27 [TD].500 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]27 [TD]0 [TD]21 [TD].389 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]28 [TD]0 [TD]16 [TD].291 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]26 [TD]0 [TD]16 [TD].302 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]28 [TD]3 [TD]15 [TD].273

Benjamin Grimm Sep 07 2022 07:05 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Things are not trending well here! Six Unhappy Outcomes yesterday: A loss by the Mets and wins by the Braves, Phillies, Cardinals, Padres, and Dodgers. Only one Happy Outcome: A loss by the Brewers. So the only good news is that the Mets are a little bit closer to clinching a Wild Card spot, but unfortunately, a little bit closer to needing to do that. The NHOP over the Braves has jumped to .519, meaning that the Mets now need more things to go right than wrong in games played by both teams. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]27 [TD]0 [TD]35 [TD].660 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]26 [TD]3 [TD]27 [TD].519 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]26 [TD]0 [TD]21 [TD].404 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]27 [TD]0 [TD]16 [TD].302 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]25 [TD]0 [TD]16 [TD].314 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]27 [TD]3 [TD]14 [TD].264

Benjamin Grimm Sep 08 2022 07:40 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Three Happy Outcomes yesterday: Two wins by the Mets and a loss by the Brewers Five Unhappy Outcomes, as the Braves, Dodgers, Cardinals, Phillies, and Padres all won. The NHOP over Atlanta is still above .500, dropping from .519 to .510. The Mets' Magic Number over Milwaukee is down to 11. The Mets have a 15-game lead over the Brewers, so even though the division title is very much in jeopardy, a spot in the postseason is all but certain. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]26 [TD]0 [TD]33 [TD].660 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]25 [TD]3 [TD]25 [TD].510 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]25 [TD]0 [TD]19 [TD].388 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]26 [TD]0 [TD]14 [TD].280 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]24 [TD]0 [TD]14 [TD].292 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]26 [TD]3 [TD]11 [TD].220

Benjamin Grimm Sep 09 2022 09:24 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Two Happy Outcomes yesterday, losses by the Phillies and Cardinals. And two Unhappy Outcomes, a pair of wins by the Brewers. Mets, Braves, Dodgers, and Padres were idle. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]26 [TD]0 [TD]33 [TD].660 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]25 [TD]3 [TD]25 [TD].510 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]24 [TD]0 [TD]18 [TD].375 [TD]San Diego [TD]First Wild Card [TD]24 [TD]0 [TD]14 [TD].292 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]25 [TD]0 [TD]13 [TD].265 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]24 [TD]3 [TD]11 [TD].229

Willets Point Sep 09 2022 09:33 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

To be honest, the only happy outcomes I care about are Mets wins, Braves losses, and Dodgers losses (and Yankees losses!).

Frayed Knot Sep 09 2022 11:01 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Sure, but those other teams do represent our safety net so can't be totally ignored until those individual magic numbers are safely put to bed.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 10 2022 06:47 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Happy Outcomes: Cardinals, Dodgers, Brewers lose. Unhappy Outcomes: Mets lose, Braves, Phillies, Padres win. The loss by the Brewers, at least, inches the Mets closer to clinching a postseason spot. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]25 [TD]0 [TD]32 [TD].667 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]24 [TD]3 [TD]25 [TD].532 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]23 [TD]0 [TD]17 [TD].370 [TD]San Diego [TD]First Wild Card [TD]23 [TD]0 [TD]14 [TD].304 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]24 [TD]0 [TD]13 [TD].277 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]23 [TD]3 [TD]10 [TD].217

Frayed Knot Sep 10 2022 11:14 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

And "inching" is exactly the pace at which they're moving.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2022 07:30 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Three Happy Outcomes yesterday: A win by the Mets and losses by the Braves and the Padres. Four Unhappy Outcomes: Wins by the Phillies, Brewers, Cardinals, and Dodgers. The Magic Number over the Brewers, which is the one that gets the Mets into the playoffs, is down to 9. The Mets have a 14-game lead with 22 to play. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]24 [TD]0 [TD]31 [TD].674 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]23 [TD]3 [TD]23 [TD].511 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]22 [TD]0 [TD]16 [TD].364 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]23 [TD]0 [TD]12 [TD].267 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]22 [TD]0 [TD]12 [TD].273 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]22 [TD]3 [TD]9 [TD].205

Benjamin Grimm Sep 11 2022 07:44 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Three Happy Outcomes on Sunday, with a win by the Mets and a loss by the Braves being the Happiest of them. Plus a loss by the Padres. Four Unhappy Outcomes: Wins by the Dodgers, Cardinals, Phillies, and Brewers. Nevertheless, we see drops across the board in the Magic Numbers due to the Mets winning. The NHOP over the Braves once again drops below the .500 mark. And even if the Mets were to lose all 21 of their remaining games, the Brewers would have to go 14-7 to keep the Mets out of the postseason. We can probably expect the Mets to clinch a playoff spot within the next seven to ten days. They can even do it by Friday if all the pieces fall into place. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]23 [TD]0 [TD]30 [TD].682 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]22 [TD]3 [TD]21 [TD].488 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]21 [TD]0 [TD]15 [TD].357 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]22 [TD]0 [TD]11 [TD].256 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]21 [TD]0 [TD]10 [TD].238 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]21 [TD]3 [TD]8 [TD].190

Lefty Specialist Sep 12 2022 07:06 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Point of order. It's possible to clinch a better record than St. Louis and yet not have a first-round bye (by virtue of the fact that they're potentially a wild-card team).

Benjamin Grimm Sep 12 2022 07:21 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

True. The St. Louis numbers are contingent on a division title.

Lefty Specialist Sep 12 2022 08:26 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Well, we can only nhope.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 13 2022 06:38 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Happy Outcomes (1): Braves lost. Unhappy Outcomes (2): Mets lost, Dodgers won. Cardinals, Phillies, Padres, and Brewers all had the day off. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]22 [TD]0 [TD]30 [TD].714 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]21 [TD]3 [TD]20 [TD].488 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]21 [TD]0 [TD]15 [TD].366 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]22 [TD]0 [TD]11 [TD].262 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]21 [TD]0 [TD]10 [TD].244 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]21 [TD]3 [TD]8 [TD].195

Frayed Knot Sep 13 2022 06:45 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

So even though Grimm's grid above lists only the realistic NL playoff contenders, I'd just like to point out that, thanks to the newly expanded playoff system, only PIT, WAS, & OAK have been officially eliminated even as we're down to 20-ish games left to play and each of those clubs are candidates to lose 100+ games. Such 'inclusion' is of course the whole point behind expanded playoffs, to reward mediocrity and to keep alive, even among the sub-mediocres for as long as possible, the idea that they're merely a hot-streak or two away from contention. Participation trophies and orange slices will be available in the lobby. The Dodgers, currently on pace for 111 wins, are the only club in either league so far to clinch a playoff spot.

Willets Point Sep 13 2022 10:01 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

And while you're at it, keep of FK's lawn.

Gwreck Sep 13 2022 10:31 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Frayed Knot wrote: Such 'inclusion' is of course the whole point behind expanded playoffs, to reward mediocrity and to keep alive, even among the sub-mediocres for as long as possible, the idea that they're merely a hot-streak or two away from contention. Disagree. The point behind expanded playoffs is to increase revenue by having more playoff games. That's far and away the driving factor behind expansion. There are some downstream effects, sure, but no one is deceived into thinking that Kansas City or Miami or Anaheim is in a playoff race, nor is there some reward to those teams for not being officially eliminated yet. There have been no more than 7 (maybe 8) teams in each league with any realistic chance of making the playoffs and it's been that way for weeks.

Frayed Knot Sep 13 2022 10:43 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Well of course it's revenue they're after. But part of the drive for revenue is convincing teams/fans that they're still 'in it' deeper into the season despite muddling along somewhere in the middle of the pack. The number of teams that affects will vary from year to year (this season is more have/have-not than most) but 'giving more teams a chance' is often the stated goal of playoff expansion proponents.

metsmarathon Sep 13 2022 12:44 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

in the NL, last year, around this time in the season (i'm not checking exact games-played situations here), there were 8 teams with less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs, per fangraphs. one of those teams was the cardinals, who actually made it. jerks. so, 7 teams were in it, until an 8th crashed the party. in the NL his year, there are 8 teams with less than a 10% chance of making the playoffs, as of today. in fact, those 8 teams all have about a zero percent chance of making the playoffs, and have for a while. which means we have a party of 7 again, with no uninvited guests. so, last year was a more inclusive environment. in the NL at least. the AL is more inclusive this year, with a party of 7 compared to a party of 6 last year. although, last year, seattle and oakland were seen hanging around outside waiting for the bouncer to turn his back. the twins have recently been disinvited from this year's party, so i'll give the inclusive edge to the '22 AL in other words, the playoff format hasn't _really_ rewarded all that much more mediocrity than last years, if at all.

Frayed Knot Sep 13 2022 08:43 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

As I said, the circumstances will vary from year to year but, over the long run, adding a 3rd WC team almost assures that there will be more teams statistically "still in it" later into the season simply on the basis that that more teams will be within striking distance to the 3rd best non-division-leading team than they'll be to the 2nd best non-division-leading team.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 14 2022 07:03 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Yesterday was almost a complete disaster. Only one Happy Outcome, a loss by the Cardinals, which is definitely of lesser importance than the other outcomes. Six Unhappy Outcomes: A loss by the Mets and wins by the Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, Padres, and Brewers. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]21 [TD]0 [TD]30 [TD].750 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]20 [TD]3 [TD]20 [TD].513 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]20 [TD]0 [TD]14 [TD].359 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]21 [TD]0 [TD]11 [TD].275 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]20 [TD]0 [TD]10 [TD].256 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]20 [TD]3 [TD]8 [TD].205

Centerfield Sep 14 2022 06:43 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

I'm pretty sure that we've been shit since NHOP returned.

Frayed Knot Sep 14 2022 07:11 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

btw, the Cards are 29 - 11 since the 1st of August and are perfectly capable (starting to border on 'likely') of blowing right past the Mets and sending them into 1st round October purgatory even if we somehow hold onto the NLE lead.

Gwreck Sep 14 2022 07:49 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Cardinals would be 5 back with a Mets loss tonight. Mets also hold the tiebreaker having won the season series, so it's really a 6 game lead.

Frayed Knot Sep 14 2022 08:00 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

=Gwreck post_id=107368 time=1663206561 user_id=56] Cardinals would be 5 back with a Mets loss tonight. Mets also hold the tiebreaker having won the season series, so it's really a 6 game lead.

So, next week then.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 15 2022 06:54 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

As bad as yesterday was, we ended up with more Happy Outcomes (4) than Unhappy Outcomes (3). Happy: Losses by the Braves, Padres, Brewers, and Dodgers. Unhappy: Loss by the Mets, wins by the Phillies and Cardinals. The Mets really need to get on track if they want that first-round bye, but the consolation prize of the Wild Card round is still looking very likely. For now, anyway. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]20 [TD]0 [TD]29 [TD].763 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]19 [TD]3 [TD]19 [TD].514 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]19 [TD]0 [TD]14 [TD].378 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]20 [TD]0 [TD]11 [TD].289 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]19 [TD]0 [TD]9 [TD].243 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]19 [TD]3 [TD]7 [TD].189

Benjamin Grimm Sep 16 2022 07:13 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Yesterday was a perfect day, NHOP-wise. (That's a word you don't see every day.) Four Happy Outcomes: A win by the Mets and losses by the Phillies, Padres, and Cardinals. Braves, Dodgers, and Brewers were idle. The Mets only have to go 6 and 11 (a .353 pace) to clinch a playoff spot. They should probably, however, aspire to do a bit better than that. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]20 [TD]0 [TD]28 [TD].757 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]19 [TD]3 [TD]18 [TD].500 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]18 [TD]0 [TD]12 [TD].343 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]19 [TD]0 [TD]10 [TD].278 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]18 [TD]0 [TD]8 [TD].229 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]19 [TD]3 [TD]6 [TD].167

Frayed Knot Sep 16 2022 03:24 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Benjamin Grimm wrote: The Mets only have to go 6 and 11 (a .353 pace) to clinch a playoff spot. They should probably, however, aspire to do a bit better than that. For their psyche (and mine) as much as anything else, especially so after leading the division for 120 of the last 121 days (or whatever it is). As far as I'm concerned, if a team makes the 'post-season' as a WC then immediately gets bounced in the 1st round then they've only "sort of" made the playoffs and in this era of an ever expanding field this only becomes more true. So, yeah, the only 'Magic Number' I care about here is the one that gets us ahead of the Braves. Braves are back home starting tonight following their lengthy west coast swing and the entire remainder of their schedule is against teams in the NL East: PHI x 3; WSH x 3; @PHI x 4; @WSH x 3; NYM x 3; @MIA x 3 Probably not smart to count on a lot of help from the Nats or Fish. The Braves & Phils have so far split their first 12 meetings which is semi- encouraging as most of those games came after June 1 when los Bravos got hot.

Edgy MD Sep 16 2022 03:59 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

I've got another magic number worth caring about — the one that gets the Mets three games ahead of the Braves before the head-to-head matchup in the next-to-last series.

TransMonk Sep 16 2022 04:42 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Yeah, it would be so great not to have to sweat that last week before the necessary sweating of the postseason begins.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 17 2022 07:32 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Edgy MD wrote: I've got another magic number worth caring about — the one that gets the Mets three games ahead of the Braves before the head-to-head matchup in the next-to-last series. That Magic Number is the same 17, you're just hoping that the Mets get there six games before the end of the season. The Mets have ten games remaining before that series with the Braves, and the Braves have twelve. To reduce the Magic Number by 17 over 22 games, the NHOP would be .773; things would have to go our way more than three quarters of the time. For today's NHOP update, we had only two Happy Outcomes yesterday, and one of them was more Unhappy than Happy; the Phillies' loss to the Braves. Nevertheless... Happy Outcomes (2): Mets win, Phillies lose. Unhappy Outcomes (5): Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals, Padres, Brewers win. The Magic Number over the Brewers is down to 5. If the Mets were to lose all 16 of their remaining games, the Brewers would have to go 14-4 to keep the Mets out of the postseason. So the Mets will clinch a playoff berth within a few days, most likely, and at that point the division title will still be very much in doubt. Do teams break out the champagne when a Wild Card is clinched even though the division title is still in play? I would think not, but I don't know what the precedent is. The Mets have won the Wild Card three times (1999, 2000, 2016) and as far as I can recall, each time by the point when they had clinched the Wild Card, they had either been eliminated from winning the division or it was unrealistic. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]19 [TD]0 [TD]27 [TD].771 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]18 [TD]3 [TD]17 [TD].500 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]17 [TD]0 [TD]11 [TD].333 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]18 [TD]0 [TD]7 [TD].206 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]17 [TD]0 [TD]6 [TD].182 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]18 [TD]3 [TD]5 [TD].147

Willets Point Sep 17 2022 04:08 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

But the Brewers beat the Yankees which is a happy outcome in my book.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 17 2022 06:47 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Do teams break out the champagne when a Wild Card is clinched even though the division title is still in play? I would think not, but I don't know what the precedent is. The Mets have won the Wild Card three times (1999, 2000, 2016) and as far as I can recall, each time by the point when they had clinched the Wild Card, they had either been eliminated from winning the division or it was unrealistic. Gary Cohen wondering the same thing.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 18 2022 07:41 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

For the second day in a row, we had only two Happy Outcomes, with one of them more Unhappy than Happy; the Phillies' loss to the Braves. Happy Outcomes (2): Mets win, Phillies lose. Unhappy Outcomes (6): Wins by the Dodgers, Braves, Padres, Brewers and a doubleheader sweep by the Cardinals. The Mets could clinch their spot in the postseason as early as tomorrow with three outcomes: Mets beat the Pirates today, Yankees beat the Brewers today, and Mets beat the Brewers tomorrow. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]18 [TD]0 [TD]26 [TD].788 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]17 [TD]3 [TD]16 [TD].500 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]15 [TD]0 [TD]10 [TD].333 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]First Wild Card [TD]17 [TD]0 [TD]5 [TD].156 [TD]San Diego [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]16 [TD]0 [TD]5 [TD].161 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]17 [TD]3 [TD]4 [TD].125

Benjamin Grimm Sep 19 2022 06:51 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Yesterday: Happy Outcomes (4): Mets win, Phillies, Cardinals, Brewers lose. Unhappy Outcomes (3): Braves, Padres, Dodgers win. The Mets can clinch a postseason spot tonight with a win in Milwaukee. If that happens, both Gary Cohen and I have been wondering what form the celebration might take. From the Brewers' standpoint, it wouldn't knock them out of contention, it would just officially eliminate their slim hope of having a first-round bye. Meanwhile, the Padres have switched places with the Phillies on our little chart. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]17 [TD]0 [TD]25 [TD].806 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]16 [TD]3 [TD]15 [TD].500 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]14 [TD]0 [TD]8 [TD].286 [TD]San Diego [TD]First Wild Card [TD]15 [TD]0 [TD]4 [TD].138 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]16 [TD]0 [TD]3 [TD].100 [TD]Milwaukee [TD]Third Wild Card [TD]16 [TD]3 [TD]2 [TD].067

Edgy MD Sep 19 2022 07:43 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Milwaukee is joined in their still-alive-ness by three entries from The Pesky West — San Francisco, Arizona, and Colorado. All have a non-zero elimination number, but it would take a cataclysmic turn of events for any of them to qualify for post-season play.Colorado should be eliminated tonight. The main remaining drama: [list] [*]Can the Brewers catch the Phils or Pads for the last playoff spot? [*]Can the Mets hold off the Braves for the division titie and bye? [/list] Both those plots get played out in one game tonight.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 20 2022 06:22 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Two Happy Outcomes yesterday: A Mets win and a Brewers loss. Two Unhappy Outcomes: Braves and Dodgers win. The Phillies, Cardinals, and Padres were idle. The Mets have become the third team to clinch a postseason spot this year, following the Dodgers and the Astros. The Brewers now fall off our chart, as they can no longer end the season with a better record than the Mets. They remain a possible playoff opponent, however. If the Mets fail to win the division, their first-round matchup will likely be either the Padres, Phillies, or Brewers. If they do win the division and advance directly to the NLDS, their foe will be one of those three teams, or the Cardinals. The Mets have never played a postseason game against the Padres, Phillies, or Brewers. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]16 [TD]0 [TD]24 [TD].828 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]15 [TD]3 [TD]14 [TD].500 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]14 [TD]0 [TD]7 [TD].259 [TD]San Diego [TD]First Wild Card [TD]15 [TD]0 [TD]3 [TD].107 [TD]Philadelphia [TD]Second Wild Card [TD]16 [TD]0 [TD]2 [TD].069

The Mets have clinched a postseason berth, and at a minimum will be the Third Wild Card.

Gwreck Sep 20 2022 07:00 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Does the St. Louis number reflect the win in the season series (and therefore tiebreak in the Mets' favor in the event of a tie?)

Benjamin Grimm Sep 20 2022 07:16 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

It does now! I must have forgotten to update the number; the Magic Number over the Cardinals is 7. The most games they can win is 101, and the Mets need seven more to match that total.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 21 2022 06:39 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Yesterday: Four Happy Outcomes: Win by the Mets, losses by the Phillies, Dodgers, and Cardinals. Three Unhappy Outcomes: Wins by the Dodgers (they split a doubleheader), Braves, and Padres. The Phillies now disappear from this chart as, at best, they can finish with the same record as the Mets, and the Mets own the tiebreaker as a result of winning the season series. With the Brewers and Phillies now eliminated (at least from the Mets' perspective) the Mets, at worst, will be the Second Wild Card. Should they fail to win the division title, their first-round opponent in the Wild Card series will not be the N.L. Central division winner, who will most likely be the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Braves have clinched their playoff spot, joining the Dodgers, Astros, and Mets in the green room for the postseason. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]14 [TD]0 [TD]22 [TD].846 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]14 [TD]3 [TD]13 [TD].500 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]13 [TD]0 [TD]5 [TD].200 [TD]San Diego [TD]First Wild Card [TD]14 [TD]0 [TD]2 [TD].077

The Mets have clinched a postseason berth, and at a minimum will be the Second Wild Card.

Edgy MD Sep 21 2022 07:10 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Clinching the second wild card should be a second party!

Willets Point Sep 21 2022 09:15 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

We could have a First Wild Card party tonight.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 21 2022 09:30 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

The Mets have six games remaining before their series in Atlanta, and the Braves have eight. In the unlikely event that all fourteen games have Happy Outcomes, the Mets will begin the series eight games up with six remaining, and the series will be meaningless. In the equally (I hope!) unlikely event that all fourteen games have Unhappy Outcomes, the Mets will be six games out and their backs will be against the wall. So that's the range: From eight games up to six games out. The window will narrow each day, of course. Also, if the Mets pitching rotation remains in place over the last twelve games, this is how it will play out: In Oakland: Bassitt, deGrom, Scherzer. At home vs. Miami: Carrasco, Walker. In Atlanta: Bassitt, deGrom, Scherzer. At home vs. Washington: Carrasco, Walker, Bassitt. That would leave deGrom and Scherzer in rotation to start the first two games of the Wild Card series, if necessary. If the Mets advance directly to the NLDS, they'll have time to set the rotation however they'd like.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 22 2022 06:36 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Yesterday: Three Happy Outcomes: Losses by the Braves, Dodgers, and Cardinals. Two Unhappy Outcomes: Mets lose and Padres win. When the Mets get to Atlanta, they will be at best 7 games ahead, and at worst, 5 games behind, with 6 remaining. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]13 [TD]0 [TD]21 [TD].875 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]13 [TD]3 [TD]12 [TD].500 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]12 [TD]0 [TD]4 [TD].174 [TD]San Diego [TD]First Wild Card [TD]13 [TD]0 [TD]2 [TD].083

The Mets have clinched a postseason berth, and at a minimum will be the Second Wild Card.

Willets Point Sep 22 2022 07:50 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

The Cardinals play the Padres so one of those magic numbers will go down by one tonight.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 23 2022 07:04 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Yesterday, the Mets were idle, but we had two Happy Outcomes (losses by the Braves and Padres) and two Unhappy Outcomes (wins by the Cardinals and Dodgers.) The Dodgers and Padres are both close to dropping off our chart. The Dodgers' Magic Number over the Mets is down to 3, and the next Padres loss or Mets win will cement the Mets as the First Wild Card, should they fail to win the division. The loss by the Braves means that the Mets can still have the division clinched before they arrive in Atlanta, but to do so would require the Mets to win their next five AND for the Braves to lose their next six. Eleven Happy Outcomes in eleven games. When the series against the Braves begins, the Mets will be somewhere between seven games up and four games behind in the standings. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]12 [TD]0 [TD]21 [TD].913 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]12 [TD]3 [TD]11 [TD].478 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]11 [TD]0 [TD]4 [TD].182 [TD]San Diego [TD]First Wild Card [TD]12 [TD]0 [TD]1 [TD].043

The Mets have clinched a postseason berth, and at a minimum will be the Second Wild Card.

Willets Point Sep 23 2022 09:02 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

For maximum efficiency, the best results tonight are a Mets win, Padres win, Cardinals loss, and Braves loss. That would eliminate the Padres, reduce the Cardinals to 2, and take Atlanta to the single digits.

Centerfield Sep 23 2022 10:38 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Putting aside Tie Breakers for a moment... If the Mets go 7-4 over their last 11, they finish at 102-60. To tie them, the Braves would have to go 9-3 over their last 12 to tie. I can see both of these happening. If the Mets go 6-5 over their last 11, the Braves would need to go 8-4 to tie. Given that the Braves has 6 games remaining against the Nats and Marlins, 8-4 seems almost a given. I think this weekend's series represents the last chance for the Mets to get some separation. Go Phils!

Fman99 Sep 23 2022 10:49 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Putting aside Tie Breakers for a moment... If the Mets go 7-4 over their last 11, they finish at 102-60. To tie them, the Braves would have to go 9-3 over their last 12 to tie. I can see both of these happening. If the Mets go 6-5 over their last 11, the Braves would need to go 8-4 to tie. Given that the Braves has 6 games remaining against the Nats and Marlins, 8-4 seems almost a given. I think this weekend's series represents the last chance for the Mets to get some separation. Go Phils! A tie, though, is loaded, because if even 1 of those wins is Mets over Braves, then the Mets win the season series. So the Mets could go 6-5 including losing 2 of 3 to ATL and the Braves would actually have to 9-3 to "beat" them, by virtue of the tiebreaker.

MFS62 Sep 23 2022 10:56 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

The real places where all the action is are the sports betting sites. They must be going nuts with all the betting possibilities and the daily changing odds. Later

Benjamin Grimm Sep 23 2022 11:21 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

=Centerfield post_id=108385 time=1663951124 user_id=65] I think this weekend's series represents the last chance for the Mets to get some separation. Go Phils!

At least the Mets are also playing bad teams: Marlins, Nationals, A's.



But the series in Atlanta is really the Mets' best opportunity. If they can win two of three, that will knock five off the Magic Number. (It goes down by one extra for winning the season series.) They would then only require six other Happy Outcomes out of seventeen games: nine Braves games (three each vs. Phillies, Marlins, Nationals) and eight Mets games (three each vs Nationals and A's, two vs. Marlins).



If the Mets lose two out of three, they'll need eight of those seventeen to go the right way.



If they get swept, they'll need eleven Happy Outcomes in seventeen games. If they sweep, they'll only need four.

Gwreck Sep 23 2022 12:38 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

We could add some AL teams to this chart for purposes of potential tiebreaks for home field advantage. Mets are: 4 games behind Houston (5 because of a loss in the season series) 3 games ahead of NYY (season series split; Mets up +4.5 in second tiebreak, intradivison record) 10.5 games ahead of TOR (Magic number is 3) CLE, SEA, TB, BAL, CWS cannot finish with a better record than the Mets.

Willets Point Sep 23 2022 10:16 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

A big SMILE for all the Happy Outcomes tonight. https://64.media.tumblr.com/89baaa9d330141031d8c0a5f0ec56276/88666b85afb93874-1e/s540x810/4dba60fb7f3f4cc5e246b3985ac3878b5716fe8c.jpg>

Benjamin Grimm Sep 24 2022 06:14 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Yesterday was a very good one for Happy Outcomes, with four: Mets win, Braves, Padres, Dodgers lose. The only Unhappy Outcome was a win by the Cardinals. The Padres now drop off our chart, as their Magic Number has been reached and they can no longer finish with a better record than the Mets. This ensures that if the Mets end up in the Wild Card round, they will have home-field advantage and will play the [CROSSOUT]lowest-ranked opponent[/CROSSOUT] second Wild Card team. When the Mets' series in Atlanta begins on Friday, the Mets will be somewhere between seven games ahead of the Braves and two games behind, with six games remaining. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]11 [TD]0 [TD]19 [TD].905 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]11 [TD]3 [TD]9 [TD].429 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]10 [TD]0 [TD]3 [TD].150

If the Mets fail to win the N.L. East, they will be the First Wild Card and all first-round games will be played at Citi Field.

Fman99 Sep 24 2022 09:47 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Yesterday was a very good one for Happy Outcomes, with four: Mets win, Braves, Padres, Dodgers lose. The only Unhappy Outcome was a win by the Cardinals. The Padres now drop off our chart, as their Magic Number has been reached and they can no longer finish with a better record than the Mets. This ensures that if the Mets end up in the Wild Card round, they will have home-field advantage and will play the lowest-ranked opponent. I get that the Mets have clinched the top wild card, but doesn't that make them, at best, the 4 seed? Isn't the NL Central winner automatically the 3 seed by virtue of winning their division and wouldn't they get to play the 6 seed, last in wild card?

Benjamin Grimm Sep 24 2022 09:54 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

You're right... NL Central winner (most likely) will play the sixth seed, and the fourth plays the fifth. My bad.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 24 2022 11:19 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

There are still a lot of different ways that this can play out. I think I have this right, but please correct me if you see any omissions or errors. The Rays and the Blue Jays currently have the same won-lost record, but the Rays have the tie-breaker advantage. The Red Sox can tie the Rays or the Blue Jays, but they lost the season series to both teams, so the best they can do is the third Wild Card. The Twins have the same record as the Red Sox, but they won the season series against the Rays and the Jays, so they can, in theory, finish ahead of either or both teams. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Playoff Seed[/th] [TH]Current Team[/th] [TH]Other Possibilities[/th] [TD]N.L. Division Winner 1 [TD]Dodgers [TD]Mets [TD]N.L. Division Winner 2 [TD]Mets [TD]Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals [TD]N.L. Division Winner 3 [TD]Cardinals [TD]Mets, Braves, Brewers [TD]N.L. Wild Card 1 [TD]Braves [TD]Mets, Cardinals, Phillies, Padres [TD]N.L. Wild Card 2 [TD]Phillies [TD]Braves, Cardinals, Padres, Brewers, Giants [TD]N.L. Wild Card 3 [TD]Padres [TD]Braves, Cardinals, Phillies, Brewers, Giants [TD]A.L. Division Winner 1 [TD]Astros [TD]Yankees [TD]A.L. Division Winner 2 [TD]Yankees [TD]Astros, Guardians, Rays, Blue Jays [TD]A.L. Division Winner 3 [TD]Guardians [TD]Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles, White Sox [TD]A.L. Wild Card 1 [TD]Rays [TD]Yankees, Guardians, Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles, White Sox, Twins [TD]A.L. Wild Card 2 [TD]Blue Jays [TD]Yankees, Guardians, Rays, Mariners, Orioles, White Sox, Twins [TD]A.L. Wild Card 3 [TD]Mariners [TD]Yankees, Guardians, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles, White Sox, Twins, Red Sox

Benjamin Grimm Sep 25 2022 08:39 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Only one Happy Outcome yesterday, a loss by the Cardinals. Three Unhappy Outcomes: Mets lost, Braves and Dodgers won. The Dodgers' Magic Number over the Mets is down to 1. If the Mets win all of their remaining games, and the Dodgers lose all of their games, the two teams will have the same record and the Mets will get the edge because of the tiebreaker. When the Mets arrive in Atlanta on Friday to play the Braves, they will be somewhere between five games ahead and two games behind, with six games remaining. The combination of the Mets losing yesterday and the Braves winning ensures that neither team will have the division title wrapped up beforehand. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Los Angeles [TD]Top Playoff Seed [TD]10 [TD]0 [TD]19 [TD]1.000 [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]10 [TD]3 [TD]9 [TD].474 [TD]St. Louis [TD]First-round bye [TD]9 [TD]0 [TD]2 [TD].111

If the Mets fail to win the N.L. East, they will be the First Wild Card and all first-round games will be played at Citi Field.





Meanwhile, the Phillies have been eliminated from contention for the First Wild Card and the Braves have guaranteed that at worst, they'll be the Second Wild Card.






[TABLE]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]

[TH]Playoff Seed[/th]	[TH]Current Team[/th]	[TH]Other Possibilities[/th]
[TD]N.L. Division Winner 1	[TD]Dodgers	[TD]Mets
[TD]N.L. Division Winner 2	[TD]Mets	[TD]Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals
[TD]N.L. Division Winner 3	[TD]Cardinals	[TD]Mets, Braves, Brewers
[TD]N.L. Wild Card 1	[TD]Braves	[TD]Mets, Cardinals, Padres
[TD]N.L. Wild Card 2	[TD]Padres	[TD]Braves, Cardinals, Phillies, Brewers
[TD]N.L. Wild Card 3	[TD]Phillies	[TD]Cardinals, Padres, Brewers, Giants
[TD]A.L. Division Winner 1	[TD]Astros	[TD]Yankees
[TD]A.L. Division Winner 2	[TD]Yankees	[TD]Astros, Guardians, Rays, Blue Jays
[TD]A.L. Division Winner 3	[TD]Guardians	[TD]Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, White Sox
[TD]A.L. Wild Card 1	[TD]Blue Jays	[TD]Yankees, Guardians, Rays, Mariners, Orioles, White Sox
[TD]A.L. Wild Card 2	[TD]Rays	[TD]Yankees, Guardians, Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles, White Sox, Twins
[TD]A.L. Wild Card 3	[TD]Mariners	[TD]Yankees, Guardians, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles, White Sox, Twins, Red Sox

Benjamin Grimm Sep 26 2022 07:06 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Yesterday, the Mets won (Happy Outcome) but the Braves did too. (Unhappy Outcome). The Cardinals-Dodgers game produced both a Happy and Unhappy Outcome. By winning, the Dodgers eliminate the Mets from contention for the top playoff seed, but by losing, Cardinals can no longer get the second seed. If the Mets win the division, they are now guaranteed to be able to skip the Wild Card round. Both teams now drop off our chart, meaning that going forward, it's only about the Braves. On Friday, when the Mets series in Atlanta is about to begin, the Mets will be somewhere between four games ahead of the Braves and one game behind. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]9 [TD]3 [TD]8 [TD].471

If the Mets win the N.L. East, they will be the second-ranked first-place team and will skip the Wild Card round and advance directly to the NLDS.

If the Mets fail to win the N.L. East, they will be the First Wild Card and all first-round games will be played at Citi Field.






[TABLE]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]

[TH]Playoff Seed[/th]	[TH]Current Team[/th]	[TH]Other Possibilities[/th]
[TD]N.L. Division Winner 1	[TD]Dodgers	[TD]--
[TD]N.L. Division Winner 2	[TD]Mets	[TD]Braves
[TD]N.L. Division Winner 3	[TD]Cardinals	[TD]Brewers
[TD]N.L. Wild Card 1	[TD]Braves	[TD]Mets, Cardinals
[TD]N.L. Wild Card 2	[TD]Padres	[TD]Cardinals, Phillies, Brewers
[TD]N.L. Wild Card 3	[TD]Phillies	[TD]Cardinals, Padres, Brewers, Giants
[TD]A.L. Division Winner 1	[TD]Astros	[TD]Yankees
[TD]A.L. Division Winner 2	[TD]Yankees	[TD]Astros, Guardians, Blue Jays
[TD]A.L. Division Winner 3	[TD]Guardians	[TD]Yankees, Blue Jays
[TD]A.L. Wild Card 1	[TD]Blue Jays	[TD]Yankees, Rays, Mariners, Orioles
[TD]A.L. Wild Card 2	[TD]Rays	[TD]Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles, White Sox
[TD]A.L. Wild Card 3	[TD]Mariners	[TD]Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles, White Sox, Twins

Gwreck Sep 26 2022 07:24 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

The Guardians, having clinched the AL Central, can no longer be a wild card team. Guardians can only be the #3 seed (unless they win out and the other New York team loses out).

Benjamin Grimm Sep 26 2022 07:26 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Corrected, thanks.

Willets Point Sep 26 2022 08:58 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

So basically the Mets can be seed #2 or seed #4.

Gwreck Sep 26 2022 09:13 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Not just “basically;” those are the only two possible seeings. As #4, if they win the WC series (likely against the Padres), they face the Dodgers in the DS. As #2, they would face the Cardinals/Phillies (or Brewers) winner in the DS.

Fman99 Sep 26 2022 09:59 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

=Gwreck post_id=108688 time=1664205239 user_id=56] Not just “basically;” those are the only two possible seeings. As #4, if they win the WC series (likely against the Padres), they face the Dodgers in the DS. As #2, they would face the Cardinals/Phillies (or Brewers) winner in the DS.

The real perk to winning the NL East isn't even advancing automatically past the WC to the LDS, or the extra days off. It's avoiding both ATL and LAD until the NLCS at the earliest.

Willets Point Sep 26 2022 10:05 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

=Gwreck post_id=108688 time=1664205239 user_id=56] Not just “basically;” those are the only two possible seeings.

Yes, that is in fact what I said. Glad we're in agreement.

Fman99 Sep 26 2022 10:13 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

So by another measure, if the Mets go 6-2, then they'd win the NL East, as that'd imply that they also took at least 1 from ATL (since they only have five games against MIA and WAS), and would have the tiebreaker edge over them via the season series record, even if the Braves go 8-1 in that same span, as they'd finish with identical 103-59 records.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 27 2022 06:40 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Only one outcome yesterday, and it was an unhappy one, as the Braves beat the Nationals. When the Mets series against Atlanta begins, they will be somewhere between three games ahead and one game behind the Braves. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]8 [TD]3 [TD]8 [TD].500

If the Mets win the N.L. East, they will be the second-ranked first-place team and will skip the Wild Card round and advance directly to the NLDS.

If the Mets fail to win the N.L. East, they will be the First Wild Card and all first-round games will be played at Citi Field.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 27 2022 08:38 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Double Unhappiness tonight: Braves win, Mets lose. Magic Number is 8, with 7 games remaining. Mets can still control their fate: If they take two of three from the Braves and three of four of the remaining games against Miami and Washington, they'll win the division. If they only win one game in Atlanta (or wherever the games are played) they'll need some outside help; the Braves will have to lose one or more games against the Marlins and Nationals. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]7 [TD]3 [TD]8 [TD].571

If the Mets win the N.L. East, they will be the second-ranked first-place team and will skip the Wild Card round and advance directly to the NLDS.

If the Mets fail to win the N.L. East, they will be the First Wild Card and all first-round games will be played at Citi Field.

Willets Point Sep 27 2022 08:45 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Make it easy on us and win 7 straight to end the season.

Gwreck Sep 27 2022 10:10 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

It strikes me as odd to see the NHOP above .500 when the teams are tied in the standings. The Mets and Braves could each go 4-3 down the stretch, remain tied at the end of the season, but if the Mets have won 1 of the 3 games in Atlanta, they get the tiebreaker and the division. Example: Mets win Wed vs MIA Mets win Fri at ATL Mets lose Sat at ATL Mets lose Sun at ATL Mets win 2 of 3 vs WAS 4 happy outcomes of 7. Braves win Wed at WAS Braves lose Fri vs NYM Braves win Sat vs NYM Braves win Sun vs NYM Braves lose 2 of 3 at MIA 3 happy outcomes of 7. Cumulative: 7 happy outcomes out of 14 (.500) (Alternately, if we only count the Mets/Braves games as having only one “outcome,” then it's 6 happy outcomes of 11, which then is .546 — but then the outcomes aren't all created equal).

Frayed Knot Sep 28 2022 06:54 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

=Gwreck post_id=108869 time=1664338259 user_id=56] It strikes me as odd to see the NHOP above .500 when the teams are tied in the standings.

The number is correct in that there are 11 remaining games that matter to the outcome of this division: 4 each vs WAS or MIA plus the 3 double-counting head-to-head games

and the Mets need 8 of those 14 to go their way in order to ensure that it happens. The number would be the same from the Atlanta standpoint as well because NHOP doesn't

consider a dead heat to be a clinch so each team needs to play better than the other to win the division. This is where things get a bit more complicated and a bit misleading

since there's no such thing as a tie here so there are certain scenarios where it matters not just whether games are won or lost but which ones. And those potential outcomes

slightly favor the Mets.



I started trying to figure not just the games but the odds of NYM coming out on top but, considering how few games still remain, the number of potential outcomes is still pretty

huge and the math started to make my hair hurt.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 28 2022 07:11 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

That's right. NHOP isn't sophisticated enough to account for head-to-head play and at this point, with three out of seven of the remaining games falling into that category, the skew of the number becomes more extreme. Here's the updated postseason possibility chart. Things are coming into more focus. I have the Mets ahead of the Braves because they currently lead the season series. In the race for the second N.L. Wild Card, the Padres lead the Phillies by 2.5 games and have a Magic Number of 7. Padres need to finish with a better record because the Phillies won the season series. If the Mets win the division, their most likely NLDS opponent would be the winner of a Cardinals-Phillies series. And if they don't, they'll probably host the Padres in the Wild Card series while the Cardinals-Phillies winner would go to L.A. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Playoff Seed[/th] [TH]Current Team[/th] [TH]Other Possibilities[/th] [TD]N.L. Division Winner 1 [TD]Dodgers [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Division Winner 2 [TD]Mets [TD]Braves [TD]N.L. Division Winner 3 [TD]Cardinals [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Wild Card 1 [TD]Braves [TD]Mets [TD]N.L. Wild Card 2 [TD]Padres [TD]Phillies, Brewers [TD]N.L. Wild Card 3 [TD]Phillies [TD]Padres, Brewers, Giants [TD]A.L. Division Winner 1 [TD]Astros [TD]Yankees [TD]A.L. Division Winner 2 [TD]Yankees [TD]Astros [TD]A.L. Division Winner 3 [TD]Guardians [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Wild Card 1 [TD]Blue Jays [TD]Rays, Mariners, Orioles [TD]A.L. Wild Card 2 [TD]Rays [TD]Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles, White Sox [TD]A.L. Wild Card 3 [TD]Mariners [TD]Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles, White Sox, Twins

Gwreck Sep 28 2022 07:43 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Should it matter for WS home field advantage: Mets are 5 games behind the Astros, and do not have the tiebreaker, meaning they need to finish 1 game ahead. With 7 games remaining, this is likely a lost cause. Mets are +1.5 over the Yankees. Too early to calculate the applicable tiebreaker (intradivison record). Mets have clinched a better record than any other potential AL playoff team.

Gwreck Sep 28 2022 07:49 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

One correction to above: the Giants have been eliminated.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 28 2022 07:55 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

The Giants can still win 84 games, which would be one more than the Phillies' current total. They're on the brink, but still in it.

Gwreck Sep 28 2022 08:07 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Oops! The MLB.com standings page is listing the Giants as eliminated in the Wild Card race.

Frayed Knot Sep 28 2022 08:55 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

fwiw, Baseball Prospectus puts the odds of the Mets winning the NLE at 60/40 (or, more accurately, 60.6/39.4) as they project the Mets to finish with a record of 101.3 & 60.7 while the Braves stumble to 100.7 & 60.3 Yeah, they get a little numbers happy over there. BB-Ref, meanwhile, favors the Braves to the tune of 70/30, so gofigger.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 28 2022 09:02 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Baseball Reference has the Braves with a 69.3% chance of winning the division, with a record of 101.4 and 60.6 and the Mets with a record of 100.8 and 61.2.

metsmarathon Sep 28 2022 09:20 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

fangraphs projects the mets to have either a 62.7% chance to win the division based on their own preseason fangraphs player projections, a 51.5% chance based on season to date stats, and a 58.5% chance based on "coin flip" The met's having the current edge in tie-breaker scenarios is where most of the difference lies. per fangraphs projections, the mets and braves finish with 101.2 and 101.0 wins apiece. per season-to-date, they project to 101.0 and 101.4 wins apiece (edge to braves, but for the tiebreakers), and exactly 100.5 wins apiece on coin-flips. again, tie breakers favor the mets. so... our team's destiny is in their own hands here. let's hope they don't luis castillo it.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 28 2022 03:11 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

=Gwreck post_id=108880 time=1664372611 user_id=56] Mets are +1.5 over the Yankees. Too early to calculate the applicable tiebreaker (intradivison record).

Mets are 46-23 with all seven remaining games against division foes, Yankees are 45-27 with four intradivision games to play (one against Toronto and three against Baltimore).



Mets' Magic Number in this category is 4.

Edgy MD Sep 28 2022 03:52 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

This thread keeps making me think about former Marlin Burke Badenhop. In fact, with a few more initials, you can name your stat after him. It could be your PECOTA! https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/besAAOSwonVg3-jw/s-l500.jpg>

Benjamin Grimm Sep 28 2022 08:52 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Two Very Happy Outcomes tonight: Mets win, Braves lose. That's all that matters anymore. Mets will begin their series in Atlanta with a one-game lead. They can win the East without any outside help by taking one game in Atlanta and then sweeping the Nationals at Citi Field. If they win two games in Atlanta their Magic Number will drop to 1, and the Braves would have to count on a double sweep in the final series of the season: Nationals over the Mets and Braves over the Marlins. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]6 [TD]3 [TD]6 [TD].500

If the Mets win the N.L. East, they will be the second-ranked first-place team and will skip the Wild Card round and advance directly to the NLDS.

If the Mets fail to win the N.L. East, they will be the First Wild Card and all first-round games will be played at Citi Field.

Frayed Knot Sep 28 2022 09:25 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP! Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 29 2022 07:00 AM

So if the ... -- Mets win 0 games in Atlanta they'll then have to play 3 better than the Braves in the final series [Mets = W-W-W, Braves = L-L-L] in order to win the division, a scenario which has about a 1.4% chance of happening if you give the two better teams a 60% chance of winning each game. -- if the Mets win One game in ATL then all they have to do is play even (or better) than the Braves in the final series. Advantage Mets -- if the Mets win two games vs ATL then they clinch with a single NYM win and/or ATL loss in the final series [fix't] THIS is the big advantage that tonight's reversal of fortune earned us. -- and if the Mets sweep all three in Georgia then obviously that's a clinch too.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 28 2022 09:32 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Two wins in Atlanta wouldn't clinch. It would leave the Mets with a two-game lead with three to play, and a Magic Number of 1. To win the division, the Braves would then have to sweep the Marlins and hope that Washington sweeps the Mets.

Frayed Knot Sep 28 2022 09:34 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Y'know, that's how I had it but then for some reason I changed it. Lesson in all this kids: don't drink and calculate.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2022 07:22 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

The Twins and the White Sox have been eliminated. Giants and Orioles still hanging in there. Brewers only a half game behind the Phillies. (Phillies hold the tie-breaker advantage.) [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Playoff Seed[/th] [TH]Current Team[/th] [TH]Other Possibilities[/th] [TD]N.L. Division Winner 1 [TD]Dodgers [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Division Winner 2 [TD]Mets [TD]Braves [TD]N.L. Division Winner 3 [TD]Cardinals [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Wild Card 1 [TD]Braves [TD]Mets [TD]N.L. Wild Card 2 [TD]Padres [TD]Phillies, Brewers [TD]N.L. Wild Card 3 [TD]Phillies [TD]Padres, Brewers, Giants [TD]A.L. Division Winner 1 [TD]Astros [TD]Yankees [TD]A.L. Division Winner 2 [TD]Yankees [TD]Astros [TD]A.L. Division Winner 3 [TD]Guardians [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Wild Card 1 [TD]Blue Jays [TD]Rays, Mariners, Orioles [TD]A.L. Wild Card 2 [TD]Rays [TD]Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles [TD]A.L. Wild Card 3 [TD]Mariners [TD]Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2022 09:14 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

The Mets can win the division with as few as 99 wins if they beat the Braves once and the Marlins then sweep the Braves next week. They can finish second with as many as 101 wins, under a few different scenarios. If they can get to 102, they win the division.

Willets Point Sep 29 2022 10:35 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

This is a big change from last season when it only took 88 wins to win the NL East. This season there could be as many as 3 teams with 88 or more wins in the NL East.

Centerfield Sep 29 2022 02:31 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Frayed Knot wrote: So if the ... -- Mets win 0 games in Atlanta they'll then have to play 3 better than the Braves in the final series [Mets = W-W-W, Braves = L-L-L] in order to win the division, a scenario which has about a 1.4% chance of happening if you give the two better teams a 60% chance of winning each game. -- if the Mets win One game in ATL then all they have to do is play even (or better) than the Braves in the final series. Advantage Mets -- if the Mets win two games vs ATL then they clinch with a single NYM win and/or ATL loss in the final series [fix't] THIS is the big advantage that tonight's reversal of fortune earned us. -- and if the Mets sweep all three in Georgia then obviously that's a clinch too. Basically there only one scenario (Mets win 1 game) where there is any chance that either team can realistically take it. All other outcomes the division is basically over.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 29 2022 02:37 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

And I suspect that that's probably the most likely outcome. (Mets winning one of three.)

Centerfield Sep 29 2022 04:18 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Benjamin Grimm wrote: And I suspect that that's probably the most likely outcome. (Mets winning one of three.) Why so? Max Fried is tough, but we have our top three lined up.

Willets Point Sep 29 2022 04:34 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

I expect Mets winning 2 of 3 is most likely

Benjamin Grimm Sep 30 2022 06:48 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

The Mariners have moved into the Second Wild Card, ahead of the Rays. Blue Jays have clinched a Wild Card and as a result, the Orioles can no longer get the First Wild Card. The Brewers had a chance to bump the Phillies out of the Third slot, but lost to the Marlins last night and therefore remain a half game behind. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Playoff Seed[/th] [TH]Current Team[/th] [TH]Other Possibilities[/th] [TD]N.L. Division Winner 1 [TD]Dodgers [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Division Winner 2 [TD]Mets [TD]Braves [TD]N.L. Division Winner 3 [TD]Cardinals [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Wild Card 1 [TD]Braves [TD]Mets [TD]N.L. Wild Card 2 [TD]Padres [TD]Phillies, Brewers [TD]N.L. Wild Card 3 [TD]Phillies [TD]Padres, Brewers, Giants [TD]A.L. Division Winner 1 [TD]Astros [TD]Yankees [TD]A.L. Division Winner 2 [TD]Yankees [TD]Astros [TD]A.L. Division Winner 3 [TD]Guardians [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Wild Card 1 [TD]Blue Jays [TD]Rays, Mariners [TD]A.L. Wild Card 2 [TD]Mariners [TD]Blue Jays, Rays, Orioles [TD]A.L. Wild Card 3 [TD]Rays [TD]Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles

Benjamin Grimm Sep 30 2022 09:24 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

The Marlins and Nationals, the two teams that are playing the Braves and the Mets next week, are currently playing the Brewers and Phillies. They're in a position to affect two different races over the next week.

Edgy MD Sep 30 2022 11:34 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

I tend to think that teams at the bottom of the standings can get themselves up to play their best and act as spoiler in the last weeks, but not in series after series. The Cubs and the Marlins can hurt two or three teams in a row, but I have trouble thinking the Nats or the Bucs will. I don't want that to read as overconfident or nothing. All respect to the Nats. Spirit of Frank Robinson, hear me now.

Benjamin Grimm Sep 30 2022 08:39 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Well, the first game in Atlanta didn't go well. Not sure what to make of the NHOP number. As noted previously, the number makes less sense when there's a large proportion of head-to-head games remaining. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]5 [TD]2 [TD]6 [TD].600

If the Mets win the N.L. East, they will be the second-ranked first-place team and will skip the Wild Card round and advance directly to the NLDS.

If the Mets fail to win the N.L. East, they will be the First Wild Card and all first-round games will be played at Citi Field.

Frayed Knot Sep 30 2022 08:52 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

So now neither team can clinch during this series ... though both can still come close. -- if the Mets win 0 games in Atlanta they'll then have to play 3 better than the Braves in the final series [Mets = W-W-W, Braves = L-L-L] in order to win the division, a scenario which has about a 1.4% chance of happening if you give the two better teams a 60% chance of winning each game in their final series. -- if the Mets win One game in ATL then all they have to do is play even (or better) than the Braves in the final series. Advantage Mets -- if the Mets win two games vs ATL then they clinch with a single NYM win and/or ATL loss in the final series --[CROSSOUT] and if the Mets sweep all three in Georgia then obviously that's a clinch too.[/CROSSOUT] What's obvious from the current situation is how huge the gap is between winning one game vs two. Edge still in our favor, just not as dramatically as a couple hours ago.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 01 2022 07:51 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

All three of the American League Wild Cards have been established... all that's left is determining how they'll be seeded. All three are expansion teams. That may happen in the National League as well if we end up with Mets-Padres-Brewers. The Orioles have now been eliminated. Giants still in it, but barely. The Astros have locked up the top seed, so the division winners will be seeded as Astros-Yankees-Guardians. The National League will also have its division winners ranked as Western-Eastern-Central. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Playoff Seed[/th] [TH]Current Team[/th] [TH]Other Possibilities[/th] [TD]N.L. Division Winner 1 [TD]Dodgers [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Division Winner 2 [TD]Mets [TD]Braves [TD]N.L. Division Winner 3 [TD]Cardinals [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Wild Card 1 [TD]Braves [TD]Mets [TD]N.L. Wild Card 2 [TD]Padres [TD]Phillies, Brewers [TD]N.L. Wild Card 3 [TD]Phillies [TD]Padres, Brewers, Giants [TD]A.L. Division Winner 1 [TD]Astros [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Division Winner 2 [TD]Yankees [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Division Winner 3 [TD]Guardians [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Wild Card 1 [TD]Blue Jays [TD]Rays, Mariners [TD]A.L. Wild Card 2 [TD]Mariners [TD]Blue Jays, Rays [TD]A.L. Wild Card 3 [TD]Rays [TD]Blue Jays, Mariners

Edgy MD Oct 01 2022 08:29 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Man, the O's dream will have to be deferred.

Frayed Knot Oct 01 2022 08:20 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

So it basically all comes down to tomorrow, the third in a row of 'most important game of the season'. If the Braves win it's essentially over. But if the Mets win the advantage falls back to us, although to a lesser extreme.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 02 2022 08:09 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Nothing good to report here, unless you hate the Giants. They're now officially eliminated from postseason contention. After tonight's game, the NHOP number will start to make more sense again. It will be 1.000 if the Braves win, meaning that all six remaining games have to go the Mets' way. It will be .500 if the Mets win, which is a much better number. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]4 [TD]1 [TD]6 [TD].750

If the Mets win the N.L. East, they will be the second-ranked first-place team and will skip the Wild Card round and advance directly to the NLDS.

If the Mets fail to win the N.L. East, they will be the First Wild Card and all first-round games will be played at Citi Field.








[TABLE]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]

[TH]Playoff Seed[/th]	[TH]Current Team[/th]	[TH]Other Possibilities[/th]
[TD]N.L. Division Winner 1	[TD]Dodgers	[TD]--
[TD]N.L. Division Winner 2	[TD]Braves	[TD]Mets
[TD]N.L. Division Winner 3	[TD]Cardinals	[TD]--
[TD]N.L. Wild Card 1	[TD]Mets	[TD]Braves
[TD]N.L. Wild Card 2	[TD]Padres	[TD]Phillies, Brewers
[TD]N.L. Wild Card 3	[TD]Phillies	[TD]Padres, Brewers
[TD]A.L. Division Winner 1	[TD]Astros	[TD]--
[TD]A.L. Division Winner 2	[TD]Yankees	[TD]--
[TD]A.L. Division Winner 3	[TD]Guardians	[TD]--
[TD]A.L. Wild Card 1	[TD]Blue Jays	[TD]Rays, Mariners
[TD]A.L. Wild Card 2	[TD]Mariners	[TD]Blue Jays, Rays
[TD]A.L. Wild Card 3	[TD]Rays	[TD]Blue Jays, Mariners

batmagadanleadoff Oct 02 2022 12:16 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Benjamin Grimm wrote: After tonight's game, the NHOP number will start to make more sense again. Sure. But the less games remain in the season, the more needlessly elaborate the NHOP is. Might as well just go with the Magic Number from here on out if you know that including today, the Braves and Mets each have only four games left to play.

Willets Point Oct 02 2022 08:20 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Benjamin Grimm wrote: And I suspect that that's probably the most likely outcome. (Mets winning one of three.) Apparently Grimm was being wildly optimistic when we all thought he was being unnecessarily negative.

nymr83 Oct 02 2022 08:34 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

At this point, the Mets may as well ignore the last 3 games and lock up deGrom-Scherzer-Bassit for the wild card with Diaz banned from pitching again and any reliever on the postseason roster banned from the last 2 games

Frayed Knot Oct 02 2022 08:43 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

A calculation where you give both the Mets and Braves a 60% chance at winning each of their games in the final series figures to give the Mets about a 1.4% shot at pulling out the division. A calculation based on watching this team over the last couple games gives them about a 1.4% chance of scoring more than 5 runs combined in the upcoming series.

metsmarathon Oct 02 2022 08:52 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Fucking lying ass simulations

TransMonk Oct 03 2022 05:51 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

=nymr83 post_id=109720 time=1664764495 user_id=54] At this point, the Mets may as well ignore the last 3 games and lock up deGrom-Scherzer-Bassit for the wild card with Diaz banned from pitching again and any reliever on the postseason roster banned from the last 2 games

Agreed. This Nats series should be their “bye” for the purpose of resting those that need it and lining up the pitching the way they want it.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 03 2022 07:21 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

As we all well know, the Mets have only the faintest of hopes of winning the division title this year. We need happy outcomes in all six remaining games. Changes in the second chart are that the Brewers can no longer be the Second Wild Card, the slot that is now the all-but-certain Mets first-round opponent. It will be either the Padres or the Phillies. And in the American League, the Rays are out of the running for the First Wild Card, and the Blue Jays are now guaranteed to at least have the Second Wild Card. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]3 [TD]0 [TD]6 [TD]1.000

If the Mets win the N.L. East, they will be the second-ranked first-place team and will skip the Wild Card round and advance directly to the NLDS.

If the Mets fail to win the N.L. East, they will be the First Wild Card and all first-round games will be played at Citi Field.






[TABLE]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]
[TR]

[TH]Playoff Seed[/th]	[TH]Current Team[/th]	[TH]Other Possibilities[/th]
[TD]N.L. Division Winner 1	[TD]Dodgers	[TD]--
[TD]N.L. Division Winner 2	[TD]Braves	[TD]Mets
[TD]N.L. Division Winner 3	[TD]Cardinals	[TD]--
[TD]N.L. Wild Card 1	[TD]Mets	[TD]Braves
[TD]N.L. Wild Card 2	[TD]Padres	[TD]Phillies
[TD]N.L. Wild Card 3	[TD]Phillies	[TD]Padres, Brewers
[TD]A.L. Division Winner 1	[TD]Astros	[TD]--
[TD]A.L. Division Winner 2	[TD]Yankees	[TD]--
[TD]A.L. Division Winner 3	[TD]Guardians	[TD]--
[TD]A.L. Wild Card 1	[TD]Blue Jays	[TD]Mariners
[TD]A.L. Wild Card 2	[TD]Mariners	[TD]Blue Jays, Rays
[TD]A.L. Wild Card 3	[TD]Rays	[TD]Mariners

Frayed Knot Oct 03 2022 07:37 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Are we SURE that there's no chance of them missing the post-season entirely, or are we just assuming that because we sense an easy schedule ahead?

Gwreck Oct 03 2022 08:01 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

I realize the attempt at humor but this is as good a time as any to point out the team has won 98 games and is quite good, no matter the results this weekend.

DocTee Oct 03 2022 08:20 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

"the team has won 98 games and is quite good, no matter the results this weekend." Agreed. I think I heard last night that sine June 1 the Braves have been playing at a record clip-- like 114 wins in a full season? There's no shame in coming behind those guys, even if there is disappointment.

MFS62 Oct 03 2022 09:24 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

I think I prefer Denny's instead of NHOP for the kinds of pancakes we got. Later

Frayed Knot Oct 03 2022 09:31 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

=Gwreck post_id=109752 time=1664805679 user_id=56] I realize the attempt at humor but this is as good a time as any to point out the team has won 98 games and is quite good, no matter the results this weekend.

Hey I'm just hoping that, if they do get in, they somehow manage to avoid the Cubs in the first round.

ashie62 Oct 03 2022 06:37 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

If the Mets sweep and Atlanta gets swept the Mets win the division Right?

Benjamin Grimm Oct 03 2022 06:57 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Yes. We need six Happy Outcomes in six games.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 03 2022 07:11 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Now we need five out of five.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 03 2022 07:32 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Five out of five is a little less daunting than six out of six. Five games remaining: Three for the Mets, two for the Braves. If they all go the right way, we get to skip the Wild Card round. Three games scheduled for Tuesday. If we get three Happy Outcomes, Wednesday will suddenly be interesting. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TH]Team[/th] [TH]Goal[/th] [TH]Remaining Games[/th] [TH]Remaining Games vs Mets[/th] [TH]Mets Magic Number[/th] [TH]NHOP[/th] [TD]Atlanta [TD]N.L. East title [TD]2 [TD]0 [TD]5 [TD]1.000

If the Mets win the N.L. East, they will be the second-ranked first-place team and will skip the Wild Card round and advance directly to the NLDS.

If the Mets fail to win the N.L. East, they will be the First Wild Card and all first-round games will be played at Citi Field.

nymr83 Oct 03 2022 09:05 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Mets play a doubleheader at 4 tomorrow. the Braves complicate things with a 6:40 start - the starter for game 2, whoever that might be, is likely going to be deep into his outing before we learn the outcome of the Braves game.

Gwreck Oct 03 2022 09:10 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Phillies clinched a wild card. If San Diego loses tonight (no score yet vs Giants), they're tied, but Philly has the tiebreaker. Both teams are now incentivized to lose their remaining games in order to secure a matchup against the Cardinals instead of the Mets.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 04 2022 06:38 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

As noted above, the Phillies have clinched a Wild Card, which means the Brewers are eliminated from the postseason. The Blue Jays have clinched the top Wild Card. All that remains to be determined is whether the Phillies will take the second Wild Card from the Padres, and whether the Rays will do the same from the Mariners. And, of course, whether the Braves will be able to close out the N.L. East. The Padres' Magic Number over the Phillies, for the right to face the Mets, is 2, and each team has two games remaining. In the four combined games, the Padres need two Happy Outcomes and the Phillies need three. (The Phillies hold the tiebreaker advantage over the Padres.) [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Playoff Seed[/th] [TH]Current Team[/th] [TH]Other Possibilities[/th] [TD]N.L. Division Winner 1 [TD]Dodgers [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Division Winner 2 [TD]Braves [TD]Mets [TD]N.L. Division Winner 3 [TD]Cardinals [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Wild Card 1 [TD]Mets [TD]Braves [TD]N.L. Wild Card 2 [TD]Padres [TD]Phillies [TD]N.L. Wild Card 3 [TD]Phillies [TD]Padres [TD]A.L. Division Winner 1 [TD]Astros [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Division Winner 2 [TD]Yankees [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Division Winner 3 [TD]Guardians [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Wild Card 1 [TD]Blue Jays [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Wild Card 2 [TD]Mariners [TD]Rays [TD]A.L. Wild Card 3 [TD]Rays [TD]Mariners

Gwreck Oct 04 2022 08:56 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

Mariners and Rays now locked in as 5 and 6 seeds, respectively. Mets clinch World Series home field advantage over any AL team other than Houston.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 05 2022 06:31 AM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

The postseason bracket is now settled. The Mets will play the Padres with the winner facing the Dodgers. Blue Jays will play the Mariners, winner faces the Astros. Cardinals will play the Phillies, winner faces the Braves. Guardians will play the Rays, winner faces the Astros. [TABLE] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TR] [TH]Playoff Seed[/th] [TH]Current Team[/th] [TH]Other Possibilities[/th] [TD]N.L. Division Winner 1 [TD]Dodgers [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Division Winner 2 [TD]Braves [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Division Winner 3 [TD]Cardinals [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Wild Card 1 [TD]Mets [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Wild Card 2 [TD]Padres [TD]-- [TD]N.L. Wild Card 3 [TD]Phillies [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Division Winner 1 [TD]Astros [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Division Winner 2 [TD]Yankees [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Division Winner 3 [TD]Guardians [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Wild Card 1 [TD]Blue Jays [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Wild Card 2 [TD]Mariners [TD]-- [TD]A.L. Wild Card 3 [TD]Rays [TD]--

Centerfield Oct 05 2022 04:52 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

We're going to end up with 5 out of 6 NHO for these last 3 games. Infuriating.

Gwreck Oct 05 2022 04:59 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

The new NHOP is now .667.

Gwreck Oct 05 2022 05:01 PM Re: Reintroducing the NHOP!

=Centerfield post_id=110116 time=1665010341 user_id=65] We're going to end up with 5 out of 6 NHO for these last 3 games. Infuriating.

Even if you discount the Braves loss today in a game that didn't matter, the 3 Mets win and 1 loss by Florida would have done it…if they just hadn't been swept.