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Home Field Advantage (split from Sept. 1 IGT)

batmagadanleadoff Sep 01 2022 08:38 PM

Home field advantage in baseball is way overrated. If the Mets can set up their rotation for a playoff series against the Dodgers with Scherzer and deGrom at the top, I'll take the Mets.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 01 2022 08:41 PM Re: Sept 1st IGT - LAD @ NYM, 4:10

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=106103 time=1662086324 user_id=68] Home field advantage in baseball is way overrated. If the Mets can set up their rotation for a playoff series against the Dodgers with Scherzer and deGrom at the top, I'll take the Mets.

The Mets took four of seven from the Dodgers this year despite Scherzer and deGrom, combined, starting just one game against the Dodgers.

Frayed Knot Sep 01 2022 08:45 PM Re: Sept 1st IGT - LAD @ NYM, 4:10

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=106103 time=1662086324 user_id=68] Home field advantage in baseball is way overrated.

HFA is overrated in EVERY sport. It's bigger in some than in others (higher in basketball and soccer, but still overrated) but the leagues themselves,

plus the networks that broadcast the games, have a vested interest in convincing you that HFA is EVERYTHING otherwise they'd have to admit that

their regular seasons are 3/4 filler.

Gwreck Sep 01 2022 08:59 PM Re: Sept 1st IGT - LAD @ NYM, 4:10

I'm not so sure that “overrated” is quite the right description, especially since there have been some statistical analyses of precisely how extreme (or not) homefield advantage is. There was a really good book called “Scorecasting” that came out about 10 years ago that analyzed it. IIRC, it was indeed basketball and soccer that had some of the highest advantages to being at home, and baseball was one of the lower advantages. That said, of course the Mets want to have it, and it's significantly better for Mets fans to have it (convenience factor for attending/watching games).

batmagadanleadoff Sep 01 2022 09:18 PM Re: Sept 1st IGT - LAD @ NYM, 4:10

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=106105 time=1662086514 user_id=68] The Mets took four of seven from the Dodgers this year despite Scherzer and deGrom, combined, starting just one game against the Dodgers.

But see, 1988.

Frayed Knot Sep 02 2022 05:03 AM Re: Sept 1st IGT - LAD @ NYM, 4:10 Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 02 2022 09:46 AM

=Gwreck post_id=106110 time=1662087558 user_id=56]There was a really good book called “Scorecasting” that came out about 10 years ago that analyzed it. IIRC, it was indeed basketball and soccer that had some of the highest advantages to being at home, and baseball was one of the lower advantages.

Yes, that was what it said and their conclusion was that the source of the advantage was almost entirely due to officiating. That's why hoops, with its high volume

of ref decisions, almost all of them subjective, and soccer, where the out-sized importance of a call/non-call often has game altering impact, showed the biggest

HFA and one that was consistent in leagues throughout the world in those sports. HFA in those sports, IIRC, were around 60%. Baseball tends to hover around

53/47 and that was consistent across MLB, minor leagues and foreign leagues.

(I thought the book was hit and miss though found the chapter on HFA to be the best part).



What will be interesting to see is whether the use of robo-ump diminishes MLB's HFA even closer to 50/50 since the biggest source of subjective calls in baseball,

particularly in the replay era, is balls and strikes. Take that out of human hands and there will virtually nothing left except the often cited reasons usually given

for HFA: crowd size/noise, field/court familiarity, history, tradition, etc. - things the authors of SCORECASTING found had no measurable effect on HFA.





As mentioned, my point was that the leagues and the networks that promote/show their games have a stake in the public believing that HFA is everything because

that belief artificially amplifies the advantage of a higher seed and therefore the importance of some Week 15 football game or the otherwise schedule filling back

end of the NBA regular season. HFA also tends to be the first thing cited as the reason for the home team victory ahead of even the fact that they were, by the

very definition of being the higher seed, the better team, but then ignored when the road team/lower seed wins.



Look, would I rather have HFA than not? Sure, every little bit helps and, yes, it's more fun for the fans.

But if it winds up NYM/LAD in the NLCS am I going to think of our chances as being substantially smaller based on four of the seven games being scheduled

in LA instead of the reverse? No.

Gwreck Sep 02 2022 06:52 AM Re: Sept 1st IGT - LAD @ NYM, 4:10

Frayed Knot wrote: That's why hoops, with its high volume of ref decisions, almost all of them subjective, and soccer, where the out-sized importance of a call/non-call often has game altering impact, showed the biggest HFA and one that was consistent in leagues throughout the world in those sports. I can't remember now if it was the same author or others but there was some fascinating data from soccer games played sans fans in the earlier parts of the pandemic, basically revealing that without the fans there, the visiting team got a lot more calls.

Frayed Knot Sep 02 2022 09:38 AM Re: Home Field Advantage (split from Sept. 1 IGT)

It certainly wouldn't surprise me if that were the case. Even in the upper leagues (EPL, etc) where threats of violence, at least the on-field towards refs part, were not a factor, there's still the crowd effect which can, consciously or otherwise, nudge calls in favor of the home team.

MFS62 Sep 02 2022 09:48 AM Re: Home Field Advantage (split from Sept. 1 IGT)

Conversely, does an umpire in baseball tend to call against the home team if the fans are booing him for a bad call earlier in the game? I always felt Lee Weyer had a hard-on for the Mets late in games if he was "called out" by the fans after a bad call, but I'm not sure if he was like that with other fans/teams. And there was certainly no way to measure it. Just a gut feel. Later

Frayed Knot Sep 02 2022 12:41 PM Re: Home Field Advantage (split from Sept. 1 IGT)

Stuff like that is generally in the heads of fans. And even if accurate, it's not the handful of 'makeup' or 'get even' calls that are going to contribute to home field edge over the long haul. It's going to be the not even conscious yet slight long term trend that'll get the home pitcher slightly more borderline strikes, or fewer touch fouls on the hardcourt, or maybe one or two fewer whistles for questionable holding calls.

batmagadanleadoff Sep 02 2022 03:35 PM Re: Sept 1st IGT - LAD @ NYM, 4:10

I'm not so sure that “overrated” is quite the right description, especially since there have been some statistical analyses of precisely how extreme (or not) homefield advantage is. There was a really good book called “Scorecasting” that came out about 10 years ago that analyzed it. I'll stick with "overrated" because most in the media and then especially the fans, overrate the baseball HFA. Note, I never said that a baseball HFA doesn't exist, just that, again, it's overrated. Which I guess, would be synonymous with "exaggerated". Maybe you like "exaggerated" better than "overrated", though I think that in this context, the words are, like I already said, synonymous. But lost in my main point was that if the Mets could get deGrom and Scherzer say three starts combined in a seven game series against the Dodgers, I'm picking the Mets and I'm picking the Mets even if the Dodgers get to host all seven games. Because my post wasn't about HFA in a vacuum, but mainly about having deGrom and Scherzer and assuming that they're gonna pitch like they've been pitching without seriously declining.

Frayed Knot Oct 09 2022 06:25 AM Re: Home Field Advantage (split from Sept. 1 IGT)

Home teams 3 - 5 so far in the WC round including two two-game ousters [StL & TOR]

Frayed Knot Oct 09 2022 08:10 PM Re: Home Field Advantage (split from Sept. 1 IGT)

3 - 6