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Should I stay or should I go?

Lefty Specialist Oct 10 2022 03:08 PM Edited 3 time(s), most recently on Oct 10 2022 05:42 PM

[YOUTUBE]xMaE6toi4mk[/YOUTUBE] The Mets have a lot of decisions to make, and some players have decisions of their own.... FREE AGENTS Brandon Nimmo Edwin Díaz Seth Lugo Trevor May Adam Ottavino Trevor Williams Mychal Givens Joely Rodriguez Tyler Naquin Tommy Hunter OPTIONS Jacob deGrom -can opt out Carlos Carrasco -club option Chris Bassitt -mutual option Taijuan Walker -player option Daniel Vogelbach- club option NON-TENDER CANDIDATES Dom Smith Darin Ruf Who should stay? Who should go? Some of these are easy, some not so much.

whippoorwill Oct 10 2022 03:21 PM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

Mr whipper and I were discussing this. I wondered aloud why free agents always feel compelled to leave

roger_that Oct 10 2022 03:29 PM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

Can we vote?

MFS62 Oct 10 2022 03:45 PM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

Does mutual option mean both the player and the team have to agree on a player becoming a free agent, or is it either/or? Laterr

batmagadanleadoff Oct 10 2022 03:54 PM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

=MFS62 post_id=111067 time=1665438354 user_id=60] Does mutual option mean both the player and the team have to agree on a player becoming a free agent, or is it either/or? Laterr

From Fangraphs:



So what is a mutual option and why is it used?





A mutual option is an agreement by the club and the player that the player will stay with the club for the option year at the option price only if both sides agree. Is that really an agreement, then? Yes. A mutual option is a hedge against volatility in the market for that player in that particular option year. If the player's

Gwreck Oct 10 2022 04:03 PM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

A few corrections: Ruf is a not a free agent. (Might be a non-tender candidate). Vogelbach's club option for next year is $1.5M so I expect that gets exercised. I believe Joely Rodriguez is also a FA. So is Tommy Hunter. Tyler Naquin is also a FA.

Gwreck Oct 10 2022 04:21 PM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

Gwreck Plan, sorted by order of priority: 1. Offer top dollar to DeGrom. Maybe he leaves anyway but let's not be outbid. Besides, do we like any of the other FA options better? (Justin Verlander? Our pal Joe Musgrove? Bassitt?) 2. Re-sign Nimmo. 3. Sign three more starters. This could indeed be Bassitt, Walker, and Williams, but there are other options on the FA market too. Why 3 more if we already have Scherzer/deGrom/Carrasco/Peterson? Because SP depth is critical and was a huge part of the 101 wins. 4. Sign best available hitter. Position agnostic since we have an open DH slot. 5. Make a fair offer to Diaz. Maybe someone wants to pay $25/5 and, well, the Mets might not top that, but make a solid offer. 6. Sign or re-sign at least 4 more relievers. Retaining Ottavino and Lugo is fine, but there are other options too if needed. Two lefties would also be ideal. We can figure Drew Smith and Stephen Nogosek are likely to make the pen next year, but other in-house options are uncertain.

Lefty Specialist Oct 10 2022 05:49 PM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

I stand corrected. Boy there are a lot of moving parts. Those I want re-signed in order of urgency are Diaz, Nimmo, Walker and Bassitt. As for DH, I have a feeling that Francisco Alvarez will be seeing a lot of time there. I also envision a Baty/Escobar platoon at 3rd. Not sure what this means for Vientos as he and Alvarez are both righties.

TransMonk Oct 10 2022 07:13 PM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

I get the impression from Bassitt's recent interviews that he may not really like NY.

Lefty Specialist Oct 11 2022 06:02 AM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

Bassitt is a guy who's really going to be hurt by the 24-second rule next year. He's far too fussy on the mound.

smg58 Oct 11 2022 06:11 AM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

Basically, other than Scherzer we are reconstructing the pitching staff from scratch. I would expect Diaz back, but we'll pay a premium for him. As for the others... I'm not for giving deGrom a raise to play maybe half a season. I think he needed to be all the way back to justify opting out, and he wasn't. I'm OK with bringing him back if the market isn't what he thinks he is, but I'm not going nuts about it. Bassitt didn't close the year like somebody I need to have back, and neither did Carrasco. I'd talk to Walker's agent, but we don't have to bring him back if there are better options available. I don't think any of the options will be exercised other than Vogelbach's, but even then I am more inclined to deal him than keep him. Re-signing Nimmo is a priority. Otherwise, I'm OK with giving Baty and Alvarez a shot and focusing resources on an OF/DH bat

Fman99 Oct 11 2022 07:21 AM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

Nimmo and Diaz are the most important guys for me to get back for 2023. Everyone else, even deGrom, well, if they come back, great, and if they don't, good luck to them in their next stops. I would think that the Mets do pick up Carrasco's option, given the likelihood that some combination of Walker, deGrom and Bassitt may not be back next year.

metsmarathon Oct 11 2022 08:17 AM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

the mets would be fools to NOT pick up carrasco's option. degrom is a headscratcher. i'd love to pay him what he wants, but there's so much risk. that said, i'd easily go 3x100, with vesting options on the back end. I could be talked up from there on the AAV. and then i'd start looking at cost-controlling my young players and extending mcneil and alonso ASAP. diaz is a top priority. unless the mets are actually serious about judge, nimmo has to be one too - there's nothing but tumbleweeds in the centerfield market otherwise. i'd like to hang onto taijuan walker over bassit. in the pen, i'd like to see ottavino back, and lugo. without looking at it, though, i'm sure there are other suitable options out there, but there's comfort in a reliever you know and feel like you can trust. thinking not too hard on it, i'd bring back vogelbach, keeping vientos in AAA while baty and alvarez share DH and positional rotations. at least, that's what my first draft looks like.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 11 2022 08:29 AM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

If deGrom opts out, he'll be passing on $30.5 million in 2023 and $32.5 million in 2024. $100 million over three years would mean slight (by his standards, not mine!) raises in the next two years and one additional year guaranteed at about the same rate. I suspect he's looking for a lot more than that. He'll probably look for something around $40 million per year. And that's too much, but he just needs the "one dumb owner". I don't think he'll be back.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 11 2022 08:34 AM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

=metsmarathon post_id=111088 time=1665497850 user_id=83] degrom is a headscratcher. i'd love to pay him what he wants, but there's so much risk. that said, i'd easily go 3x100, with vesting options on the back end. I could be talked up from there on the AAV. and then i'd start looking at cost-controlling my young players and extending mcneil and alonso ASAP.

It's gonna take a lot more than that to keep deGrom. If he doesnt test the FA market, he'll make $63M from the Mets over the next two years, at, obviously, an AAV of $31.5M. So 3/30 definitely wont cut it. They'll have to pay deGrom at least more than Scherzer, who's now the highest paid player in MLB history. His AAV is in the 40s (mill).

batmagadanleadoff Oct 11 2022 08:38 AM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=111090 time=1665498888 user_id=68] =metsmarathon post_id=111088 time=1665497850 user_id=83] degrom is a headscratcher. i'd love to pay him what he wants, but there's so much risk. that said, i'd easily go 3x100, with vesting options on the back end. I could be talked up from there on the AAV. and then i'd start looking at cost-controlling my young players and extending mcneil and alonso ASAP.

It's gonna take a lot more than that to keep deGrom. If he doesnt test the FA market, he'll make $63M from the Mets over the next two years, at, obviously, an AAV of $31.5M. So 3/30 definitely wont cut it. They'll have to pay deGrom at least more than Scherzer, who's now the highest paid player in MLB history. His AAV is in the 40s (mill).


Scherzer's at 3/130 and deGrom's younger and has been better over the last five seasons, albeit, missing what amounts to an entire season from injuries.



And jinx on Grimm.

metsmarathon Oct 11 2022 08:48 AM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

shit. yeah. i was misreading mlbtr, which i read as degrom having only one year at ~30. i would of course need to up my offer, were i to wish to keep degrom. i don't really know if he'll get better than scherzer money, guaranteed, but if anyone besides the mets were to offer it, it'll probably be the yankees. 2x90, with a closet full of vests.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 11 2022 08:51 AM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

It's not such a no brainer to let deGrom walk. He struck out 102 in 64.1 innings this year and showed no lingering health issues from what sidelined him for 13 months. He did develop a blister but that's a routine occurrence that shouldn't factor at all in deciding how hard to pursue deGrom. It took about two months to build back deGrom's strength to where he could throw 100 pitches a game but that's normal given he hadn't pitched in 13 months and had no Spring Training. I'm fairly certain even though I'm really guessing here, that some team will offer him more than what Scherzer's making. That deGrom is likely to regress even if he remains healthy over the next three years can, just the same, have been said about Scherzer before the Mets signed him. The real risk is carrying not one, but two pitchers at exorbitant salaries into their very late 30s.

batmagadanleadoff Oct 11 2022 09:06 AM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

I keep on reading so called insider scoops that say deGrom really wants to play close to his home, in Florida. What does this mean? I doubt that either the Rays or Marlins have the money to pay deGrom. If that's true, the Braves are the closest team to deGrom's home that could afford him. What does deGrom expect to do? Take a jet home to Florida after every Braves home game and then a jet back to Atlanta in the morning? On most days, he wont even get out of the stadium until about midnight so this isnt even feasible unless he asks for and gets special privileges when he's not pitching. (I'm sure he'll have the money to do that). Take a jet home on every home off day? How many days is that? Maybe once a month, if even that much? Is that alone worth leaving the Mets?

Centerfield Oct 11 2022 11:46 AM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

deGrom just finished his age 34 season. If he signs a 3 year deal, at the end of it he'll be younger than Max Scherzer is now. I would guess he'll get multiple offers of 4 years. Someone might even go 5.

Benjamin Grimm Oct 11 2022 11:59 AM Re: Should I stay or should I go?

Not that it's directly comparable, but I was curious so I looked it up. Pedro Martinez was going into his age 33 year when he signed a four-year deal with the Mets. I would guess that some team may go four years, $160 million for deGrom, but that's far from certain. It's a big risk, and most teams are going to be conscious of the luxury tax. Putting 40 million eggs in one basket may be too much.