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So Whaddya Do?

Lefty Specialist Jun 19 2023 05:36 AM

We've got a team that just lost 2 of 3 at home to arguably the worst team in the NL. They aren't hitting, aren't hitting with runners in scoring position, have a flammable bullpen, are fielding poorly and have a disastrous starting rotation. Outside of that.... How do you fix this team? I don't think it's possible this year unless everybody immediately plays up to the back of their baseball cards. You're stuck with Scherzer and Verlander for another year. It's the oldest team in baseball in a year where youth seems to rule the day. Some problems can be jettisoned at the end of the year but not all. And even if Uncle Steve makes Ohtani an offer he can't refuse, just remember the Angels haven't won anything because he and Trout don't have a supporting cast. McNeil is 50 points below where he was last year. Marte is sporadic at best, and you've got him for another two years. Lindor is flirting with the Mendoza Line and you've got him until the 2030's. Baty and Alvarez are getting their feet wet so they get a pass. Canha, Escobar, Carrasco, Vogelbach are gone after this year if not sooner. Nimmo's the only one who's been worth his money so far (and Tommy Pham, for that matter). Alonso is Alonso, but he's hitting in the .220's too. The pen outside of Ottavino and Robertson is scary. At least you'll get Diaz back there next year. With 6 coming up on the road against the Astros and Phillies, it could get a lot uglier fast. So whaddya do? (outside of bitching and moaning, which we'll do anyway) Do you sell at the deadline and reload in the offseason? Not a lot a contender would want on this roster. Or do you sit tight and hope for the best in 2024? *(yes, I know, 91 games left, yada, yada, yada. You can't tell he this team isn't playing like dead men walking.)

Gwreck Jun 19 2023 06:15 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

It's all about the pitching. Yes, several offensive players are underperforming but without competent pitching it's not getting better. There have been 7 losses alone this month during which the Mets scored 4 runs or more. To fix this season: they need 3 competent starting pitchers. They currently have one (Senga). If Verlander and Scherzer can pitch somewhere close to what they're capable of the season might be salvegable. I'm fully in favor of releasing Carlos Carrasco. Maybe Lucchesi is worth another try?

Johnny Lunchbucket Jun 19 2023 06:49 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

If we have a 1-5 road trip I think hard about a big teardown.

Gwreck Jun 19 2023 06:54 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

What are you tearing down? Verlander, Scherzer, and Senga aren't going anywhere. Neither are Nimmo, Lindor, or Alonso. I'm in favor of getting rid of Carrasco and Megill but who do you use in their stead? You could probably trade Baty or Alvarez but do you really want to do that?

vtmet7 Jun 19 2023 07:22 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

What are you tearing down? Verlander, Scherzer, and Senga aren't going anywhere. Neither are Nimmo, Lindor, or Alonso. I'm in favor of getting rid of Carrasco and Megill but who do you use in their stead? You could probably trade Baty or Alvarez but do you really want to do that? I think a "tear down" for this team means to stop pretending that these 30ish+ role players are anything more than role players and get what you can for guys like Cahna, Daniel V, Pham, Escobar, Luis G, Megill, Peterson, Carrasco, the veteran LHP that hasn't pitched at the MLB level yet this season, most of the veteran bullpen guys...obviously guys like Alonso, Nimmo, Baty, Alvarez are likely core members for the next several years...and the $40+ mil pitchers hopefully have key seasons for the team next season...

Edgy MD Jun 19 2023 07:55 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

An elaborate and holistic campaign of aggressiveness, deception, and skullduggery.

smg58 Jun 19 2023 08:26 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

I don't think you panic about the offense. You have a number of guys with a BABIP that's way below what they normally do, and that's a good bet to change favorably. At worst, it's the small problem. On the other hand... our pitching staff has given up more home runs than any other staff in the NL. And we play our home games at Citi Field, so it is even worse than the base numbers make it look. And we are paying over $100M to two starters and a closer who have combined for 1.3 WAR in basically half a season. So what can you do? Tough question. Our expensive players aren't going anywhere, and it would be loony to part with high-end young talent right now. If you can get pitching for Narvaez you do it, not because I dislike him but because there's no point in paying him that much to be the backup catcher. But that won't be enough to turn the season around. The way pitchers are handled right now, you need depth more than anything, so going with four AAA relievers in the back of the pen and cycling them out every week to bring in four more AAA relievers is a recipe for disaster. If a real major-league reliever can be had on the cheap, and that's been true the last two deadlines and the last two Januaries, you get him. As for starters, you have to count on Scherzer and Verlander to perform, because their salaries leave you no other choice. Senga is good enough. I'm sill hopeful that Quintana can be solid the second half and next year. But Carrasco is done, and Megill and Peterson are not the valuable stopgaps we thought they were last season. I do think you look for guys who are pitching well in AAA who don't have a path to the majors on their current team. They don't have to be elite prospects, just guys who can get the call and not kill you. And then you open the bottomless wallet and get Shohei. But you need to clean house upstairs and in the dugout. Showalter has done nothing impressive, and his handling of young players has been baffling. The Mets gave Jeremy Hefner a contract extension immediately after the 2021 season, before they had even hired a GM to make personnel decisions. And this was after he let DeGrom see how hard he could throw before his arm gave out, evidently expecting a different result than his arm giving out. Has he not been handed enough Hall of Fame-caliber talent to get a fair judgment of his abilities? Eppler showed more confidence in his AAA back of the pen than in Francisco Alvarez. And he never even tried to bring back Marcus Stroman, who currently leads the NL in ERA. Are these the guys you want fixing the problem?

Johnny Lunchbucket Jun 19 2023 08:40 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

=Gwreck post_id=129154 time=1687179289 user_id=56] What are you tearing down? Verlander, Scherzer, and Senga aren't going anywhere. Neither are Nimmo, Lindor, or Alonso. I'm in favor of getting rid of Carrasco and Megill but who do you use in their stead? You could probably trade Baty or Alvarez but do you really want to do that?

Robertson, Ottavino, Escobar, Pham, Vogelbach, Narvaez, Canha, Marte

Lefty Specialist Jun 19 2023 08:49 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

It's pretty clear David Stearns will be in charge of the cleanup this offseason. Eppler's just marking time, which is one of the reasons they may not do anything splashy at the deadline. Buck, I'm disappointed. He always seemed like to most prepared guy in the room but he's made some inexplicable moves this year. Vogelbach's one-week 'vacation', the handling of Vientos, to name two. if this is a 77-85 type season, I don't know how he survives.

vtmet7 Jun 19 2023 10:42 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Lefty Specialist wrote: It's pretty clear David Stearns will be in charge of the cleanup this offseason. Eppler's just marking time, which is one of the reasons they may not do anything splashy at the deadline. Buck, I'm disappointed. He always seemed like to most prepared guy in the room but he's made some inexplicable moves this year. Vogelbach's one-week 'vacation', the handling of Vientos, to name two. if this is a 77-85 type season, I don't know how he survives. I think that it's been implied elsewhere that Buck has hinted very coyly that he is not the guy making the decisions...not saying that it's true but the in-season treatment of the baby mets has been very different from how he handled them while his superstars went off to the WBC...Eppler didn't exactly put up winning teams with the Angels despite his rich owner spending a ton of money on a few star players... I had high hopes for Eppler and Buck but their handling of the team this season is leaving a lot to be desired...hopefully the Stearns rumor mill doesn't cause the Stearns hiring not to happen out of fear of tampering charges

MFS62 Jun 19 2023 11:34 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

I think a "tear down" for this team means to stop pretending that these 30ish+ role players are anything more than role players and get what you can for guys like Cahna, Daniel V, Pham, Escobar, Luis G, Megill, Peterson, Carrasco, the veteran LHP that hasn't pitched at the MLB level yet this season, most of the veteran bullpen guys...obviously guys like Alonso, Nimmo, Baty, Alvarez are likely core members for the next several years...and the $40+ mil pitchers hopefully have key seasons for the team next season... If you don't want to ride this out (You feel like the current team can still turn it around)and "have to " do something, this is the kind of logical approach I'd go with. I don't suggest pursuing the alternative given by one of my college professors as he was handing out the final. He said, "If you stick the knife between the second and third ribs and give it a twist as it's going in, you'll never feel a thing." It isn't that bad, YET. Later

smg58 Jun 19 2023 12:47 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

I think we were lulled into a false sense of security by Eppler and Showalter because, for all their flaws, they were improvements over their predecessors.

Marshmallowmilkshake Jun 19 2023 12:58 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

I can't imagine Buck and Eppler will be on the hot seat. It's not their fault the elite closer was injured during the WBC, and that one of the key rotation pieces came down with an unexpected health crisis. The bad deadline deals are on Eppler, but I think overall he'd done a good job.

Edgy MD Jun 19 2023 01:25 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

I don't think I was lulled into anything. The team won their second-most games in history yesteryear. That's not deception or misdirection. That's concrete and demonstrable. That may not mean that Buck's awesome and Eppler's a genius, but virtually anybody else (who isn't texting dik pix) keeps their jobs in such a situation — not because they were better than their predecessors (I don't know that), but because the team's outcome was better than almost every other outcome in Mets team in history. What to do now is to stop waiting for this to come around or that to come around and just terrorize the opposition. This time next year, Álvarez is going to be an MVP candidate. There's no reason we can't do some winning before that, though.

Benjamin Grimm Jun 19 2023 01:36 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

I don't have any answers. I'm very curious, though, about what they're going to do about the starting rotation for 2024. They have to do something, but I don't really know what options they have. I find myself longing for the days when they could bring up someone like Tyler Pill!

metirish Jun 19 2023 01:49 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

This team just never got going, especially the starting rotation, very little pop in the outfield. I feel like Buck has been trying to find the right combination and it just hasn't happened.

ashie62 Jun 19 2023 04:56 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Not much to do until the trade deadline and a decision will be made as to whether the Mets are buyers or sellers or some hybrid of both The wild card is attainable. It doesn't feel like it is but it can be done The pitchers are going to have to lead the path forward. I never would have guessed that I felt like the return of Jose Quintana could be key to creating a spark

Edgy MD Jun 19 2023 05:34 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Plenty to do, I think, if they are of a mind.

Fman99 Jun 19 2023 06:56 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

I'll just watch less Mets baseball this year. I've found that's my best bet for fixing the summer so far, sadly.

Edgy MD Jun 19 2023 07:04 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

I don't think I'm giving up on the hitting. They just seem to be too programmed into three-true-outcome mold. I think that leads to feast-or-famine effect. It also leads to boring baseball, sometimes even when they are scoring. They've done OK on power this month, especially considering Alonso's absence, but not particularly well. They've done OK on walks, but not particularly well. Their batting average has been stinky. I think that could turn. It may take a philosophical shift, or maybe a couple of key players make small adjustments. I think we have good reason to think Lindor isn't going to finish with a .200 average. Other guys too. Whether they reverse course in time, well, that's the game, isn't it?

Gwreck Jun 19 2023 08:44 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: =Gwreck post_id=129154 time=1687179289 user_id=56] What are you tearing down? Verlander, Scherzer, and Senga aren't going anywhere. Neither are Nimmo, Lindor, or Alonso. I'm in favor of getting rid of Carrasco and Megill but who do you use in their stead? You could probably trade Baty or Alvarez but do you really want to do that? Robertson, Ottavino, Escobar, Pham, Vogelbach, Narvaez, Canha, Marte

So all the guys who are free agents at the end of the year (other than Marte)?



I get that everyone on this list (other than Robertson) is underperforming but what's the plan? Underperforming soon-to-be free agents aren't going to command anything in the trade market. If you cut them…you play Vientos full time, and…Mauricio?



Robertson, sure, we might get something if they give up on the season. I guess they could trade Narvaez too.

Edgy MD Jun 19 2023 08:52 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

I disagree that everyone on that list is underperforming. For instance, Pham? I'm not advocating for trading any of them, but they could certainly move several of them if they were of a mind to. Also, Narvaez has a player option, so isn't particularly likely to be a free agent as of now. Ottavino has one too.

Gwreck Jun 19 2023 11:44 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

I think the overall point holds. There can't be a robust trade market for the players on that list except Robertson. As tonight showed, the issue isn't the offense. It's the 4.94 ERA from their starting pitchers (25th in MLB).

Edgy MD Jun 20 2023 09:01 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Well, your point seemed to say that there wasn't any trade market. Beyond that, "robust" is an ambiguous and relative term. I think, if the Mets want to deal, precedent suggests that they can find a partner for many or most of them. Frequently, those deals may yield little besides clearing a roster spot for another player, but if that's the way forward they want to take, it's certainly a possible one. I don't think they'll go very far down that route, but it's a way that's available for them. I think a better plan is to smash their way forward.

Benjamin Grimm Jun 20 2023 09:25 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Yeah, I think their best bet at this point is to play better than they have been. We keep getting encouraging outings from Scherzer and Verlander, but then the next time around we get discouraging outings from Scherzer and Verlander. Maybe they can trade someone like Canha or Pham for a starting pitcher of equivalent talent. That might help. They're close enough to the expanded postseason that a hot July can put them right in the thick of things.

batmagadanleadoff Jun 20 2023 09:34 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Lotsa hand-wringing and angst on the internet over the losing. As if anybody knows why Lindor is a coupl'a bad games from being under the Mendoza line. Or whether Scherzer is declining or simply out of whack mechanically, a bit. Or something else. Someone wrote an article demanding that Buck go all because Vientos sucked last month. If I keep on reading web Mets articles, I'm gonna eventually come across some piece explaining that the way to fix this bad Mets run is to retire Gary Carter's uniform number.

metsmarathon Jun 20 2023 01:25 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=129258 time=1687275241 user_id=68] ... the way to fix this bad Mets run is to retire Gary Carter's uniform number.

ya know, i just read on some internet forum somewhere that a possible way to fix the bad run the mets are on is to retire gary carter's number.



i don't know how, but it might just work. let's do it.

MFS62 Jun 20 2023 01:40 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Have the wives/girlfriends of the players all give birth. It seems to have worked for Lindor. Later

Gwreck Jun 20 2023 03:00 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Edgy MD wrote: Well, your point seemed to say that there wasn't any trade market. Beyond that, "robust" is an ambiguous and relative term. I think, if the Mets want to deal, precedent suggests that they can find a partner for many or most of them. Frequently, those deals may yield little besides clearing a roster spot for another player, but if that's the way forward they want to take, it's certainly a possible one. I think we may be talking past each other. I think we agree that of course they “could” make a deal for one of those players, but it's not likely to be a good deal, and it's also unclear what better alternative exists if a Marte/Canha/Escobar/Vogelbach gets removed from the team.

Edgy MD Jun 20 2023 03:28 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Yes, the better alternative to Escobar may be a more fulltime role for Baty. The better alternative to Cahna may be a more full-time role for Vientos. The better alternative to Pham may be a more fulltime role for Mauricio (possibly with McNeil seeing more time in the outfield. The better alternative to Narváez may be a more full-time role for Álvarez. I'm not advocating as such, but the options are there.

Johnny Lunchbucket Jun 20 2023 03:53 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Alls I was saying was if the team is hopelessly out of the race it only makes sense to rid the ship of the guys who won't be part of the solution next year while hopefully making room for or acquiring guys who might. It was a hypothetical on top of a hypothetical.

smg58 Jun 20 2023 05:04 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

I don't know if it's hopeless -- much like St. Louis, there is too much talent to say it can't happen (although the Cardinals do have the benefit of a much weaker division). And we're a month away from needing to make a call on that. Having said that, you could still make a strong case that moving guys like Canha, Escobar, or Vogelbach would do nothing to hurt our chances this year while giving us a longer look at our younger players. Pham is a different story: perhaps you sell high while you can, but I think you would have to be willing to sacrifice the present to move him and I'm not there yet. Marte has two more years, along with the catch-22 that if he's playing well enough that another team would take the contract on, we probably don't want to part with him.

ashie62 Jun 24 2023 09:45 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

The Angels lost two third baseman to injury, Rendon and Urshela so it makes sense for them to take Escobar Is it selling season? There does seem to be some interest in Pham, according to SI I could see moving the over 30 guys to the benefit of some Syracuse players Would someone take Verlander's contract?

bmfc1 Jun 24 2023 09:50 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

If it gets to July and they are still dropping popups and running to 1B via the mound then perhaps you trade everyone that won't be here next year, including Pham and Canha (ugh, I'm a fan!), for more "one-year away" prospects. The earlier you do it (as with the EE trade) the more value the other team gets out of the player. The Mets can keep their core intact so they can claim they are not giving up on this season while trying to improve the team for next year and the farm system overall.

Lefty Specialist Jun 24 2023 10:38 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

No one is taking Verlander's contract unless Cohen pays 75% of it. Same for Scherzer. Move Canha, put McNeil in LF and play Mauricio at 2nd. Pham will have some interest, but trading him will seem more of a 'give-up' move. They were careful to characterize EE trade as dealing from excess.

MFS62 Jun 24 2023 10:48 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Lets' start with first things first - fundamentals. I remember hearing the story of a manager who, after many fundamentally bad plays, called a pre-game meeting. He started it by holding up a ball and saying, "THIS is a baseball". Maybe Buck has to hit the mental reset button and get their heads back into the game.(and out of their arses) Later

batmagadanleadoff Jun 24 2023 02:35 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

=MFS62 post_id=129702 time=1687625306 user_id=60] Lets' start with first things first

First things first. They've gotten no starting pitching. None. They wouldn't be worse off pitching-wise if the top of their rotation was Bomback, Burris and Zachry.



And Nimmo's .277 BA leads the team. .277! I think that the next guy down is like 35 points behind Nimmo.



What else do you need to know?

bmfc1 Jun 25 2023 11:53 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

The starting pitching isn't going to improve as Peterson is starting on Tuesday. He was awful for the Mets, he's been awful for the Syracuse Mets but the timing works for him to start. Timing over quality.

nymr83 Jun 25 2023 03:07 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Meanwhile, Joey Lucchesi has pitched well at Syracuse. Can we at least get him lined up for Peterson's next start... you know, just in case.

Edgy MD Jun 25 2023 09:03 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

I'm not sure what Peterson's next start is. Both are at Syracuse and Joey Fuego is probably ahead of the line for a callup. The team only has four guys in their rotation right now, and I don't think that's going to hold until the Quintana missile fires, so yeah, I think there's a good chance Lucchesi gets another chance.

Gwreck Jun 25 2023 09:17 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

=bmfc1 post_id=129786 time=1687715586 user_id=73] The starting pitching isn't going to improve as Peterson is starting on Tuesday. He was awful for the Mets, he's been awful for the Syracuse Mets but the timing works for him to start. Timing over quality.

To what extent is this Eppler's fault and what extent is it bad luck? Obviously some injuries are expected but are we a couple standard deviations away from the range of reasonably expected outcomes?



Going in to the season, Mets had the following as major league starting pitcher options:



Scherzer

Verlander

Senga

Carrasco

Quintana

Peterson

Megill

Lucchesi

Elisier Hernandez



Isn't that enough? That seems like a pretty good depth chart.



Also food for thought: the five starting pitchers the Mets lost to free agency last year haven't exactly been great and/or have been catastrophically injured. Possible exception: Lugo has had some decent numbers (but was hurt a month). Taijuan would be a marginal improvement but he's not exactly headed to the All Star game this year.

Edgy MD Jun 25 2023 09:29 PM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Michael Wacha, meanstwhile, is 19-4 / 3.24 in 208 innings between 2022 and 2023. I'm not sure a lot of us had money on that coming to pass.

bmfc1 Jun 26 2023 06:23 AM Re: So Whaddya Do?

Gwreck: as far as we know, that's on the pitchers. Max's WAR is 1.1. Senga's WAR is 1.0. Those are 1 and 2 on the team. https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/mets The Peterson move (and I hope he pitches a complete game shutout) is on management as they knew they need a SP for Tuesday after Thursday's day-off and their continued intent to give Senga, Max and JV as much rest time as possible (it looks like they'll be resting in October) so why did they have Lucchesi pitch on Friday (in turn)?