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IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

ashie62 Aug 22 2023 12:20 PM

I am looking forward to seeing Stewart and our other sluggers kick ass tonight against Brad Elder. Megill has a shot to lead the team in wins. In another world he would be followed in the rotation by Nino Espinosa

MFS62 Aug 22 2023 01:50 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

As soon as he hears "Play Ball" Buck should get someone up in the bullpen. I have no cahnfidence in Megill. They're gonna' have to win ugly. Later

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 02:00 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

I'm going to come out against getting someone up in the bullpen at the start of the game. The Mets (according to Fangraphs.com) have improved their playoff likelihood from 0.7% to 2.5% over the last week, and despite that hiccup in the last game against St. Louis, reduced the Cardinals' chances from 0.7% to virtually nil. Lineup largely stacked with lefty bats again tonight, with Álvarez replacing Narváez from last night. [TABLE][TR][/TR][TR][/TR][TR][/TR][TR][/TR][TR][/TR][TR][/TR][TR][/TR][TR][/TR][TR][/TR][TR][/TR][TR][/TR][TR][/TR][TR][/TR][/TABLE] [TH][/TH] [TH][FIMG=250]https://cdn.freebiesupply.com/images/large/2x/new-york-mets-logo-transparent.png[/FIMG][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][FIMG=250]https://cdn.freebiesupply.com/images/large/2x/atlanta-braves-logo-transparent.png[/FIMG] [/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]#[/TH] [TH]Player[/TH] [TH]Pos.[/TH] [TH]#[/TH] [TH]Player[/TH] [TH]Pos.[/TH] [TD]=#FF5910]1[/TD] [TD]=#002D72]Brandon Nimmo (L)[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]cf[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]1[/TD] [TD]=#CE1141]Ronald Acuna, Jr. (R)[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]rf[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]2[/TD] [TD]=#002D72]Francisco Lindor (S)[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]ss[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]2[/TD] [TD]=#CE1141]Michael Harris II (L)[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]cf[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]3[/TD] [TD]=#002D72]Jeff McNeil (L)[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]2b[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]3[/TD] [TD]=#CE1141]Austin Riley (R)[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]3b[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]4[/TD] [TD]=#002D72]Pete Alonso (R)[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]1b[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]4[/TD] [TD]=#CE1141]Matt Olson (L)[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]1b[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]5[/TD] [TD]=#002D72]Daniel Vogelbach (L)[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]dh[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]5[/TD] [TD]=#CE1141]Marcell Ozuna (R)[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]dh[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]6[/TD] [TD]=#002D72]D.J. Stewart (L)[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]rf[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]6[/TD] [TD]=#CE1141]Eddie Rosario (L)[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]lf[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]7[/TD] [TD]=#002D72]Francisco Álvarez (R)[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]c[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]7[/TD] [TD]=#CE1141]Travis d'Arnaud (R)[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]c[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]8[/TD] [TD]=#002D72]Rafael Ortega (L)[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]lf[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]8[/TD] [TD]=#CE1141]Orlando Arcia (R)[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]ss[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]9[/TD] [TD]=#002D72]Jonathan Araúz (S)[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]3b[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]9[/TD] [TD]=#CE1141]Nicky Lopez (L)[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]2b[/TD] [TH][/TH] [TH]Pitcher[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]Pitcher[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TD]=#FF5910][/TD] [TD]=#002D72]Tylor Megill (R)[/TD] [TD]=#FF5910]sp[/TD] [TD]=#13274F][/TD] [TD]=#CE1141]Bryce Elder (R)[/TD] [TD]=#13274F]sp[/TD]

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 22 2023 03:01 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

I'd like an upgrade on Arauz but Baty appears to be stinking it up in Syracuse right now and Guillorme is apparently still hurt.

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 03:09 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Jonathan has at least generated the sort of defensive steadiness that the pitchers go wild for. Not wild wild, but, you know ... crazy.

ashie62 Aug 22 2023 03:13 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Mauricio is planted at 3A learning defense This lineup may be as good as it gets for now 5 1/2 weeks to go 2.5% is something

MFS62 Aug 22 2023 05:47 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

2-0 Braves, bottom of the second. They're still batting. Later

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 06:19 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

I think, on 3-2 on Vogey, I'm tempted to send the runners, but he's so prone to taking strike three. Instead he takes ball four.

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 06:25 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

That ball looked fair to me.

ashie62 Aug 22 2023 06:37 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Airmail brought to you by Megill

ashie62 Aug 22 2023 06:42 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Tylor is battling, in a good way

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 06:43 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Jam escapage brought to you by Megill, matching Elder's jam escapage in the top half of the inning.

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 22 2023 07:01 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

We're just not crispy tonight

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 07:01 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

They're going to have to bop their way back into this. Any ideas how to wake up Álvarez' bat?

Frayed Knot Aug 22 2023 07:05 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

This game seems to be moving at a snail's pace, and then i see it's on track for slightly over 3 hours. iow, this would be a quicker than average game if played during the last decade or so.

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 07:07 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

I like that Kolarek wears Josh Edgin's 66. It feels like a lefty reliever's number.

Frayed Knot Aug 22 2023 07:17 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Seems like an odd spot to remove Elder: 90 pitches, two hits, shutout, 3 run lead, etc. One might even call it Elder abuse.

Centerfield Aug 22 2023 07:18 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

The Braves are fucking cheating.

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 22 2023 07:19 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Vogey

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 07:19 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

That's boppin'!

Frayed Knot Aug 22 2023 07:21 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

The most surprising thing about that Vogey HR is that Harris didn't catch it.

MFS62 Aug 22 2023 07:21 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

When I hear 66 I think of Route 66(the old TV show). In case anyone is interested, the (square) root of 66 is 8.1240. Back to the ballgame. Later

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 07:30 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Kolarek shows versatility. I like. Kolarek muestra versatilidad. Me gusta.

Frayed Knot Aug 22 2023 07:30 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Frayed Knot wrote: The most surprising thing about that Vogey HR is that Harris didn't catch it. And now that I think about it, all three NYM hits tonight have been to CF [McNeil dropped a single in front of him, Lindor's 2B towards LCF, Vogey's HR] and for all three i was convinced Harris was going to glove each.

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 07:35 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Jonathan Araúz is the best .111 hitter in Mets history. Show 'em why.

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 07:43 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Lou Seal wins The Great Mascot Race.

Cowtipper Aug 22 2023 07:45 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Reed Garrett is in? Well, it was a close game.

Frayed Knot Aug 22 2023 07:51 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

We've been very good at pop-ups tonight.

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 07:58 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Vogelbach, Stewart, Álvarez in the ninth. Powa, powa, powa.

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 08:04 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Stabilizing rotation, and now their bullpen is stabilizing. May it not be so late as to be in vain.

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 22 2023 08:06 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Vogelbach needs to get on here

Frayed Knot Aug 22 2023 08:07 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

We can get to this guy.

Frayed Knot Aug 22 2023 08:08 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

I'm surprised that the PR, LoCastro as it turns out, didn't beat Vogelbach to 1st

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 22 2023 08:09 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Rally is on

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 08:09 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

I'd bunt him here. If only to force the infield to come in.

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 08:11 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

That's another reason to use the bunt.

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 22 2023 08:12 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Fudge

Frayed Knot Aug 22 2023 08:12 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

I thought that was going to be a triple play.

Edgy MD Aug 22 2023 08:16 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Good game. Bad outcome.

DocTee Aug 23 2023 05:16 AM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

[BLOCKQUOTE]he Mets (according to Fangraphs.com) have improved their playoff likelihood from 0.7% to 2.5% over the last week, and despite that hiccup in the last game against St. Louis, reduced the Cardinals' chances from 0.7% to virtually nil.[/BLOCKQUOTE] The Mets have been unluckier than most. Their run differential (-29) is a dozen better than Miami (-41) but here we sit six games behind them in the standings (nine games under .500 as opposed to their three above). Even the Reds, at (-26) are playing at a playoff-caliber clip. C'est la vie.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 23 2023 06:48 AM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

http://potg.ultimatemets.com/images/schaefer16.jpg> Cast your vote!

Edgy MD Aug 23 2023 08:34 AM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

I'll admit that I don't understand the "go streaming" reference.

Benjamin Grimm Aug 23 2023 08:44 AM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

I think it means that he needed to urinate.

Edgy MD Aug 23 2023 12:02 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

It strikes me that an important difference-maker in this game was Tim Locastro entering as a pinch-runner, but not only not stealing, but not going first-to-third on D.J. Stewart's single. Had he stolen, he's in a position to score on Stewart's hit. The argument for him stealing is simple enough. He's the tying run. He wants to take away the double play. His brand as "Fastest Dude in Baseball" is probably more rep than fact at this point (he's 31), but that's why he's there. He's not on the team to just be faster than Vogelbach. His speed is supposed to be more than an asset, but a weapon, and once the game is afoot, weapons need to be fired to be effective. He gets in there, with a hot batter coming up, and (assuming what follows still follows), he scores on the single. Also, did you know that Travis d'Arnaud has only thrown out 13% of would-be base-stealers this season? Well, I'm here to tell you that that Travis d'Arnaud has only thrown out 13% of would-be base-stealers this season. Mike Piazza used to be treated as a joke when he'd throw out 22–25% of attempted larcenists, but those are now the numbers that good catchers are getting. The stolen base is a more-achievable thing. The argument against him stealing is simple enough. Raisel Iglesias hasn't been stolen on since last season. If you don't need to respect the catcher all that much, you need to respect the pitcher. And if the pitcher can keep you close enough to first, the catcher suddenly becomes a greater factor. He only had two pitches on which to run, with Stewart lining the third pitch to center, so he might not have even gotten a feel for his legs. The argument for him going first-to-third? Also simple enough. The Mets have been ridiculous about respecting Ronald Acuña's arm in right these last two series, staying stuck to the bag when the ball is in play in a part of the ballpark where one has come to think of advancing as automatic. But Michael Harris ain't Ronald Acuña. His outfield arm is merely terrific, not best-in-baseball great (like Acuña's), and that's matched up against Locastro's wheels which are also terrific, which should negate the terrificness of Harris' arm. And they may actually be best-in-baseball great (though probably not — not anymore.) But getting third would've given Locastro two chances to score the tying run on an out, the chance to score the tying run on a double play (which Álvarez subsequently hit into). If the throw from Harris gets away, he scores and the go-ahead run is in scoring position. If he's in there, perhaps Austin Riley comes home with the subsequent grounder, but even if he's out, the Mets still have one out and the tying and go-ahead runs on base. And it's a tough play with the runner directly between Riley and the catcher. If that ball bounces off of him, the game is tied with the go-ahead run on third with no out! And with runners on first and third, Riley may not even be guarding the line there and can't do much with that grounder at all. But that's probably wishful thinking. He's probably guarding the line. The argument against him going first-to-third is mostly about the book. The book says you don't make the first out at third. If he's thrown out, that's what he's doing. You have three chances to score on a base hit, and you can even (in theory) score by advancing twice on outs from second, and so you don't want to die at third. The book also says that you play for the tie at home, and the win on the road, which means being conservative with that first runner, and more aggressive with the second. (Maybe Abraham Almonte or Danny Mendick or Kodai Senga or somebody should have pinch-run for Stewart, but that ship has sailed while this decision making is happening, and the short-term advantage would have likely only been marginal.) Also, my comments about Harris' arm not being Acuña's isn't that strong an argument. it's still terrific. And he's a lefthanded thrower, which makes it a lot easier for him to come up with the ball and throw to third without having to twist his body into position. in summary, I don't know if the call to hold at second was Locastro's or Joey Cora's. I think the chance he makes it are somewhere between 45 and 65 percent, and that's not the strongest. But the game had a playoff tenseness about it at the end, and it kind of called for weapon-on-weapon decision-making at the end. A terrific arm against a terrific set of wheels. That would have been objectively cool, and subjectively awesome if he made it. But I dunno.

MFS62 Aug 23 2023 12:16 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Good (not the best) arm against a very fast runner. Speed kills. Once the fielder sees the guy is going to third, It can force hesitation, improving the runner's chances. It can force a hasty, and maybe inaccurate, throw. And maybe the runner is flat out fast enough to beat a good throw. And maybe not. But you have to try. Is the coach going to get fired if the runner is thrown out? What have they got to lose? Send him. Later

Edgy MD Aug 23 2023 12:23 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Well, I tried to make clear what they had a lot to lose if they failed, which was no small amount. And, of course, they had a lot to gain if they succeeded. I'm not sure what the final calculus is, or if my estimate of the likelihood of success is low, high, or perfectly accurate. There's a lot of math available on issues of baserunner advancement that can likely clarify what the break-even point is — telling us just how likely a chance of success Locastro would have needed to make going the right decision.

Frayed Knot Aug 23 2023 12:57 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

If he tries for 3rd there he's out by 25 ft

Edgy MD Aug 23 2023 01:12 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

Well, there's a vote for 0% likelihood of success.

MFS62 Aug 23 2023 01:35 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

And when considering that "available math," the coach has to factor in other things - e.g.- was the ball right at the fielder, or is he moving to one side? Is the ball damp from a wet or humid field that could affect his grip? How good a jump did the runner get (is he off with the pitch?) Those may or may not be included in the calculations. Some teams play conservatively, not giving the other team a chance to get outs. Ohers play a more aggressive brand of baseball - forcing the other team into errors. It boils down to gut feel - did the coach think the runner can make it? And it is a snap judgement he gets paid to make. (I just re-read that, and it makes me sound like a patronizing asshole) Later

Edgy MD Aug 23 2023 02:17 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

The calculations aren't really about determining whether or not to send the guy. They're about the level of confidence you would need to have. In some situations, you don't want to send the guy unless you're 95% confident he can make it. In other situations, the advantage of the extra base is enough that you would send the guy even if there's only a 30% chance he can make it. Those factors you list may help determine what the coach's or the runner's confidence may be, but the math is more or less set in stone.

Edgy MD Aug 23 2023 02:24 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

I just re-watched the inning. There was no replay that gave an indication where Locastro was when Harris got to the ball, or where the ball was when Locastro hit the breaks.

Frayed Knot Aug 23 2023 02:34 PM Re: IGT 8/22 Mets vs Braves 7:20 Megill wants to go Streaming Pt 2

The play was in front of the runner, he's making (or at least should be) his own go/stop decision there. He made the right call.