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Offensive Outage

Frayed Knot Aug 04 2023 05:06 PM

So check out these OPS+ numbers from last season vs this one --------------- 2023 ---- 2022 Pete Alonso -- 123 ------- 148 Jeff McNeal ----- 86 -----141 Francisco Lindor 115 ---- 126 Mark Canha --- 102 ----- 123 (and less playing time) Brandon Nimmo - 117 --- 131 Starling Marte -- 79 ------ 133 (and lots of missed time) So even with a large upgrade at catcher and plus Pham picking up a chunk of the slack, those factors are only enough to put this offense 6th from the bottom in RS/G which is more than 1/4 run per game below league average and about 1-1/4 per below the top teams (ATL & LAD) As I've mentioned in several IGT's over the last few days, much of our ire during this summer of discontent has seemed to focus on the pitching woes. To some extent it's understandable considering Verlander's injury and delayed entrance, Scherzer's missed starts for health and suspension issues (plus his gopher-itis), Quintanta missing more than half the season right out of the gate, Carrasco's decline, the regression of both Megill and Peterson to the point where no longer even resemble ready for prime time players, the loss of Diaz, runners running wild on Ottavino, and so on. And yet, even with all that, this motley crew has maintained an ERA right at league average ERA for more than 100 games. Not that an average staff is what we expected coming in, nor is enough to duplicate a 101 win season. And, as they move forward after three major pieces were dealt away, there might be some serious ugliness going forward. But at least for the moment what we've had has be a lot more mediocre than terrible.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 04 2023 05:30 PM Re: Offensive Outage

Yeah. Teams that win 100 games are almost always --- lucky. Lucky in that seemingly everyone in the lineup is having a career year at the same time, or if not a career year, playing over their heads (or norms). That's how teams win 100 games. Everybody produces. Not just Trout and Ohtani. The 86 Mets were a juggernaut not only because the all-stars played like all stars, but because Ray Knight was Babe Ruth against lefties, because Dykstra and Backman were always on base and because the 4th pitcher in the Mets starting rotation, (whoever you think was the 4th best pitcher) could've been the ace of about 10 rival staffs. That's what's happening this year, but in reverse. Everybody's under performing. Simultaneously. All at the same time.

batmagadanleadoff Aug 04 2023 05:40 PM Re: Offensive Outage

=batmagadanleadoff post_id=134036 time=1691191812 user_id=68] Yeah. Teams that win 100 games are almost always --- lucky. Lucky in that seemingly everyone in the lineup is having a career year at the same time, or if not a career year, playing over their heads (or norms). That's how teams win 100 games. Everybody produces. Not just Trout and Ohtani. The 86 Mets were a juggernaut not only because the all-stars played like all stars, but because Ray Knight was Babe Ruth against lefties, because Dykstra and Backman were always on base and because the 4th pitcher in the Mets starting rotation, (whoever you think was the 4th best pitcher) could've been the ace of about 10 rival staffs. That's what's happening this year, but in reverse. Everybody's under performing. Simultaneously. All at the same time.

The hitting this year, so far, is goddamn atrocious. If it weren't for the prodigious HR hitting of Alonso and Alvarez, this Mets offense would remind me of the very early 70s Padres. Enzo Hernandez, anyone?

Frayed Knot Aug 04 2023 05:45 PM Re: Offensive Outage

It's also gotten to where it was a couple years ago where it seems as if getting runners on cconsistency decreases their odds of scoring. The hitting both suxx And is poorly timed.

Edgy MD Aug 04 2023 05:53 PM Re: Offensive Outage

I'm not sure the homerun hitting is much of a plus. It's one of the only measures by which they are performing above average, but I think they are giving up a lot for their power — losing more in other areas than they are gaining in increased longball benefits. That's my impression, anyhow. It's also kind of undergirded a little by Brandon Nimmo (if no one else) outright saying that's what he's willingly doing.

Frayed Knot Aug 04 2023 06:07 PM Re: Offensive Outage

On the other hand, no one has fallen further than McSquirrel who mostly looks like a cricket player these days trying to steer soft singles towards empty spots on the field. Four seasons ago he hit 23 HRs. He's hit 23 since (2020-2023)

smg58 Aug 05 2023 05:19 AM Re: Offensive Outage

I still think McNeil is playing hurt. I have no other good explanation. I'm fairly certain Marte was playing hurt for a while, and hopefully his numbers will improve the rest of the way. Alonso has a BABIP of .202, which is... inexplicable for anybody who doesn't bunt on a full-time basis. But at least it's improving? It's overdue for a serious positive regression to the mean (about .260 for him, on account of the shift), but at this point I hope it doesn't happen until next season. Alvarez and Lindor are underperforming in that regard as well, although not nearly to the same degree. I suppose it is possible that they are all overswinging, which would be on the hitting coach, but I don't have enough data to answer that.

ashie62 Aug 05 2023 07:38 AM Re: Offensive Outage

He wants his car

nymr83 Aug 05 2023 09:18 PM Re: Offensive Outage

McNeil looks terrible, but I'm not so sure he is hurt - he looked just like this in 2021 - maybe this is who he is now

Johnny Lunchbucket Aug 06 2023 08:09 AM Re: Offensive Outage

Too late now but I'd have whacked the hitting coach in May or early June

Edgy MD Aug 06 2023 08:13 AM Re: Offensive Outage

=nymr83 post_id=134162 time=1691291909 user_id=54] McNeil looks terrible, but I'm not so sure he is hurt - he looked just like this in 2021 - maybe this is who he is now

Maybe he is, but on the other hand, I was thinking that was who he was now back in 2021. Him getting his mojo back in 2022 was just as shocking as him utterly losing it all over again.



As for whacking the hitting coach (Jeremy Barnes), it would have been pretty easy considering the successful previous coach was right next to him on the bench. But my sense is that an organization — any organization — is loathe to quit on a move two months in. You could have had Chavez resume his authority without even making a change in titles. But we become committed to redeeming our decisions, to the point where we can undo nine good decisions trying to justify the tenth.

MFS62 Aug 06 2023 08:20 AM Re: Offensive Outage

If they're still charging for tickets, this has become an offensive outrage. Later

nymr83 Aug 06 2023 01:47 PM Re: Offensive Outage

I'm assuming there will be some DEEPLY discounted night game tickets, particularly once school starts back up. And hey, this team is built to drive beer sales!