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Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

Edgy MD
Sep 16 2023 09:21 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Nov 13 2023 06:16 PM

I'm kind of tired of this "best ever" stuff. Gary came up with a qualifier of "over the last three years" tonight. Over the last three seasons, Shohei has put up 14.3 bWAR hitting and 14.3 more pitching. bWAR isn't everything, but Babe Ruth put up over 28.6 of them (even though they weren't known to exist) over three years a LOT. All the caveats of using Babe Ruth exist. Yes, he never played against visibly African-American players, but he also rode on trains. Yes, he never played night games, but he also never got to DH. He put up fWAR over 28.6 from
[list]

  • [*]1917 to 1919 (28.7),

  • [*]1918 to 1920 (34.3),

  • [*]1919 to 1921 (30.0),

  • [*]1920 to 1922 (30.8),

  • [*]1921 to 1923 (33.1),

  • [*]1922 to 1924 (31.9),

  • [*]1923 to 1925 (34.2),

  • [*]1926 to 1928 (30.9),

  • [*]1927 to 1929 (28.8),

  • [*]1928 to 1930 (29.1), and

  • [*]1929 to 1931 (29.5).
    • [/list]

    That's 11 times. He was, like, the Babe Ruth of his sport. Ted Williams also did it twice (depending on how you count three seasons when there's a war in between them. Barry Bonds did it thrice.



    I imagine somebody else might have pulled it off once or twice. It's no shame not being Babe Ruth, as that's a category I too fall into. I dig Ohtani. Among other things, he's showed baseball that nearly a century and a half of received wisdom about letting players simultaneously pursue careers as pitchers and hitters has been wrong. Who knows how many terrific careers were lost or diminished because of that?



    I just think the guy's about to hit an insane free agent market. But he's shredded his elbow twice now, so his future as a pitcher — and certainly as a star pitcher — is very much in doubt. And after that, we're talking about a Judge-quality slugger who doesn't play defense. And slugger contracts can go sour also.



    He still has a chance to make people very happy for an extended period of time, given a few breaks, but let's look at him for what he is, rather than build up myths around him.

    Fman99
    Sep 17 2023 04:00 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    I want to know more about his gWAR rating though.

    metirish
    Sep 17 2023 04:45 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    It will be very interesting to see the market for him, if your team signed him and he was done with pitching that would suck ,of course if he was mashing that would help offset that.still I can't see the half a billion happening

    Benjamin Grimm
    Nov 13 2023 12:57 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Stories about which teams have the best shot at Ohtani have been all over the map, literally.



    Just in the last couple of days, I've read that he's only interested in the West Coast, and also that now that he's been in the United States for a while, he'd be okay with going to an East Coast team. (This last was from a report out of Boston.)



    I've read that because he's sure to stay out West, that the Mets have turned their attention instead to Yamamoto. (Regardless of what happens with Ohtani, the Mets should be interested in Yamamoto. There shouldn't be an "instead" involved, but that may be better discussed in a different thread.)

    ashie62
    Nov 13 2023 01:45 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Ohtani stays on the West Coast



    Yamamoto becomes a Met



    It feels real to me

    Marshmallowmilkshake
    Nov 13 2023 03:34 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Mike Silva's podcast today looks at Ohtani, and said he wants to stay in cities west of the Mississippi, "like Chicago." Somebody send Mike a map.

    batmagadanleadoff
    Dec 02 2023 09:26 AM
    Let's talk about Shohei Ohtani

    Not much to talk about here. It's being reported that the Mets are one of three teams that have dropped out of the pursuit of Ohtani.



    https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/12/01/shohei-ohtani-sweepstakes-mlb-teams-out-red-sox-mets

    metirish
    Dec 02 2023 10:20 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Some conflicting reports, Mets are out , then still in, still, I'd be surprised if we get him

    Lefty Specialist
    Dec 02 2023 06:54 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    I won't be upset if they don't get Ohtani. I will be upset if they don't get Yamamoto.

    kcmets
    Dec 02 2023 07:24 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Yup © and Yup ©

    metirish
    Dec 08 2023 12:18 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    X is going wild right now with rumors he signed for the Jays

    Marshmallowmilkshake
    Dec 08 2023 12:34 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    =metirish post_id=142509 time=1702063131 user_id=72]
    X is going wild right now with rumors he signed for the Jays



    Best case scenario!

    Benjamin Grimm
    Dec 08 2023 12:39 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    =Marshmallowmilkshake post_id=142510 time=1702064077 user_id=119]
    =metirish post_id=142509 time=1702063131 user_id=72]
    X is going wild right now with rumors he signed for the Jays



    Best case scenario!


    Other than the Mets, of course. Puts him out of the NL and in the Yankees division. And on top of that, maybe takes the Jays out of the Yamamoto sweepstakes.

    A Boy Named Seo
    Dec 08 2023 01:17 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    ShoJay Ohtani would be wild. It seems he doesn't like all the crazed fanfare so staying in Anaheim would be kinda perfect. Maybe he hates SoCal. Maybe he hates the west coast. Maybe HE HATES AMERICA.



    Great for the Jays, if true.

    Marshmallowmilkshake
    Dec 08 2023 01:23 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Benjamin Grimm wrote:

    =Marshmallowmilkshake post_id=142510 time=1702064077 user_id=119]
    =metirish post_id=142509 time=1702063131 user_id=72]
    X is going wild right now with rumors he signed for the Jays


    Best case scenario!



    Other than the Mets, of course. Puts him out of the NL and in the Yankees division. And on top of that, maybe takes the Jays out of the Yamamoto sweepstakes.


    Absolutely!

    ashie62
    Dec 08 2023 08:07 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    I believe the Mets are very in on Ohtani

    Edgy MD
    Dec 08 2023 08:33 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    That's the spirit!



    Also, Walter Johnson put up 28.6 fWAR or more over a three-season span eight times, topping out at 43.5 from 1912 to 1914.

    Lefty Specialist
    Dec 09 2023 07:56 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Johnson was also a .235 lifetime hitter, and hit .433 in 97 at bats in 1925. Yowza.

    kcmets
    Dec 09 2023 08:13 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    I heard earlier this morning Ohtani has signed a minor league deal

    the Toledo Mudhens. Huge, huge I tell ya!

    MFS62
    Dec 09 2023 09:02 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    =kcmets post_id=142543 time=1702134837 user_id=53]
    I heard earlier this morning Ohtani has signed a minor league deal

    the Toledo Mudhens. Huge, huge I tell ya!



    Did you pick it up on Radar?

    Later

    MFS62
    Dec 09 2023 09:04 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 09 2023 11:10 AM

    =kcmets post_id=142543 time=1702134837 user_id=53]
    I heard earlier this morning Ohtani has signed a minor league deal

    the Toledo Mudhens. Huge, huge I tell ya!



    Somewhere, Jamie Farr is smiling.

    Later

    ashie62
    Dec 09 2023 10:43 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Huge attention was paid to a flight tracker route from southern California to Toronto



    This "may" have led to some outlets being premature with the Ohtani to the Blue Jays



    Canadian Robert Herjavic, shark tank dude, was flying home



    The Mets have checked on Ohtani



    I expect them to sign Ohtani and Yamamoto, today

    Benjamin Grimm
    Dec 09 2023 10:55 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    =ashie62 post_id=142550 time=1702143830 user_id=90]


    I expect them to sign Ohtani and Yamamoto, today



    Now I'm going to be disappointed if this doesn't happen.

    MFS62
    Dec 09 2023 01:12 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...


    Huge attention was paid to a flight tracker route from southern California to Toronto



    This "may" have led to some outlets being premature with the Ohtani to the Blue Jays



    Canadian Robert Herjavic, shark tank dude, was flying home


    Tweet of the day, by Jason Benetti (new Tiger PBP guy and will be calling the Alabama-Purdue game in Toronto)...
    My plane has landed in Toronto.


    Pulling our chains.

    Later

    Johnny Lunchbucket
    Dec 09 2023 01:15 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    10 yrs 700 million with Dodgers

    G-Fafif
    Dec 09 2023 01:15 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 09 2023 01:17 PM

    Ohtani is a Dodger.



    The total has just sunk in. Wow.

    dgwphotography
    Dec 09 2023 01:15 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Ohtani will be a Dodger:



    https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2023-12-09/shohei-ohtani-dodgers-agreement-angels

    G-Fafif
    Dec 09 2023 01:18 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    [tweet]https://twitter.com/feinsand/status/1733580876590571564[/tweet]

    MFS62
    Dec 09 2023 01:20 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    In the words of Joe Schultz, as quoted in Ball Four, "shitfuck".

    Later.

    metirish
    Dec 09 2023 01:32 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    10 years , $700 million, damn

    bmfc1
    Dec 09 2023 01:33 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    I was hoping for Toronto or anyone else in the American League.

    Methead
    Dec 09 2023 01:39 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Johnny Lunchbucket wrote:

    10 yrs 700 million with Dodgers


    Good sweet holy christ on a taco

    ashie62
    Dec 09 2023 01:42 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    700 million



    WOW

    metirish
    Dec 09 2023 01:47 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    It's absolutely nuts , glad it's not the Mets in for that

    stevejrogers
    Dec 09 2023 01:52 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    =metirish post_id=142566 time=1702154843 user_id=72]
    It's absolutely nuts , glad it's not the Mets in for that



    Plus the “unprecedented deferrals” would probably make Bobby Bonilla's deal look less farcical to outsiders!

    Chad ochoseis
    Dec 09 2023 02:01 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Stupid money, unless the deferrals are so far down the road that the $700M is more like $400M in today's dollars, which is entirely possible.

    Marshmallowmilkshake
    Dec 09 2023 02:05 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    =metirish post_id=142566 time=1702154843 user_id=72]
    It's absolutely nuts , glad it's not the Mets in for that



    Cohen can tell the other owners, “Don't blame me for this one!”

    metirish
    Dec 09 2023 02:06 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    =Marshmallowmilkshake post_id=142571 time=1702155945 user_id=119]
    =metirish post_id=142566 time=1702154843 user_id=72]
    It's absolutely nuts , glad it's not the Mets in for that



    Cohen can tell the other owners, “Don't blame me for this one!”






    Right? If Cohen did this there would be an outcry, let's see now

    Edgy MD
    Dec 09 2023 02:20 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    "Now we're ready to talk." — Pete Alonso

    The Hot Corner
    Dec 09 2023 02:21 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    =metirish post_id=142566 time=1702154843 user_id=72]
    It's absolutely nuts , glad it's not the Mets in for that



    Exactly. Ohtani is the best player in MLB, but the years and price is ludacris. Deferred money or not, it will be hard to add to the roster with that amount on the books.

    The Hot Corner
    Dec 09 2023 02:22 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Edgy MD wrote:

    "Now we're ready to talk." — Pete Alonso


    Has anyone seen Pete pitch? There is no player worth that kind of money, not even Ohtani.

    Edgy MD
    Dec 09 2023 02:34 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Indeed he isn't. But the bar at the top of the market has been raised significantly. Good agents tend to wait until the guy at the top of the market has signed before encouraging their guys to move.



    In baseball, you're worth what the market says you're worth (apart from all the weird market manipulations they're still allowed to do).

    Frayed Knot
    Dec 09 2023 03:16 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Biggest question is how good a pitcher is he going to be post-surgery. Not that he can't make it on

    hitting alone, but the reason the pile of cash is as high as it is is for his proven ability to do both.

    Lefty Specialist
    Dec 09 2023 03:25 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Woof. That's a lot of sushi.



    An incredible sunk cost for the Dodgers, deferred payments or no.

    metirish
    Dec 09 2023 03:51 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Frayed Knot wrote:

    Biggest question is how good a pitcher is he going to be post-surgery. Not that he can't make it on

    hitting alone, but the reason the pile of cash is as high as it is is for his proven ability to do both.




    This is a huge question, wow , curious to see how it all turns out

    metirish
    Dec 09 2023 04:48 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Just some tidying up here , Shohei first on this

    metirish
    Dec 09 2023 06:09 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    [TWEET]https://twitter.com/WillSammon/status/1733640177686401252[/TWEET]

    Oh well

    batmagadanleadoff
    Dec 09 2023 07:07 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Ohtani's new salary, accounting for inflation and adjusted for present value, comes out to about $25M a year (AAV). Granted, it's for 10 years. Dodger fans should enjoy watching this unicorn play every day before them. But as for the Dodgers' WS chances, baseball post-season is a stupid shit-show. My favorite part is when, inevitably, the top seeds lose after just one round and then all the ninnies have conniptions about "How could that happen? It's the playoffs! The playoffs!!!" They want the six seeds to participate in the playoffs, but then have heart attacks when the six-seeds actually win a series. "How could this happen?"

    batmagadanleadoff
    Dec 09 2023 07:12 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...


    [TWEET]https://twitter.com/WillSammon/status/1733640177686401252[/TWEET]

    Oh well


    That's probably because Ohtani never wanted to play for the Mets to begin with. Probably a combination of Ohtani wanting to stay on the west coast and perceiving the Mets as way less competitive than the Dodgers.

    Chad ochoseis
    Dec 09 2023 09:03 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    =batmagadanleadoff post_id=142586 time=1702174071 user_id=68]
    Ohtani's new salary, accounting for inflation and adjusted for present value, comes out to about $25M a year (AAV).



    Have the details on the timing of the deferred payments been released?

    batmagadanleadoff
    Dec 09 2023 09:13 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Chad ochoseis wrote:


    Ohtani's new salary, accounting for inflation and adjusted for present value, comes out to about $25M a year (AAV).


    Have the details on the timing of the deferred payments been released?


    I don't think so. But MLB knows the details. So this from The Athletic: "Under the league's calculations, the deferrals lower [Ohtani's] average annual value from $30.4 million to $25.5 million."

    metirish
    Dec 10 2023 05:10 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Just saw on The Athletic, has not had physical yet, Dodgers had no comment on deal

    stevejrogers
    Dec 10 2023 06:52 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Oh good, now knee jerk “it's not my money” stans and those pissed that Cohen isn't acting like 1980s George Steinbrenner have hope for a reverse Correa!

    smg58
    Dec 10 2023 09:20 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    You can't count on any pitching in the second half of this deal, and even elite-hitting DHs have limited value. I love Shohei, but this was quite a bit farther than I would have willingly gone.

    Edgy MD
    Dec 10 2023 11:12 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Shohei Ohtani is terrific, but ... .

    batmagadanleadoff
    Dec 10 2023 12:22 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...


    Ohtani's new salary, accounting for inflation and adjusted for present value, comes out to about $25M a year (AAV). Granted, it's for 10 years. Dodger fans should enjoy watching this unicorn play every day before them. But as for the Dodgers' WS chances, baseball post-season is a stupid shit-show. My favorite part is when, inevitably, the top seeds lose after just one round and then all the ninnies have conniptions about "How could that happen? It's the playoffs! The playoffs!!!" They want the six seeds to participate in the playoffs, but then have heart attacks when the six-seeds actually win a series. "How could this happen?"




    Last night on the Baseball network, during its all-night Ohtani-thon coverage, hall of fame broadcaster Bob Costas was asked if he'd take the Dodgers or the rest of the field in next year's post-season (the question obviously assumes the Dodges will qualify). Costas said that he'd take the rest of the field. He said he'd take the rest of the field against any team. Even against a team that was a combination of the 1927 Yankees, the Gas House Gang, the Mariners squad that won 116 regular season games and several other all-time great teams for the ages. He said that the post-season is too much of a gauntlet for any team to have an edge.



    I agree. But it seems as if baseball is headed for a post-season, some day, where every single team qualifies.

    ashie62
    Dec 10 2023 02:47 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    I guess you could extend Francisco Alvarez



    For say 300 million for 8 years



    Pete would get 400 million for 10



    Tee hee

    Frayed Knot
    Dec 10 2023 03:55 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    =smg58 post_id=142613 time=1702225245 user_id=62]
    You can't count on any pitching in the second half of this deal ...



    Or in the first year of it.

    A Boy Named Seo
    Dec 11 2023 03:59 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    I just got a buzz on my phone stating that Shohei will earn a $2M salary EACH YEAR of his contract with the Dodgers, deferring the other $68M annually. Interest-free payments on the balance start in 2034.



    This is fucking incredible to me. He will count against the cap this year the same as our new relief pitcher, Jorge Lopez. LOL

    metirish
    Dec 11 2023 04:13 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    What a joke , wow

    metirish
    Dec 11 2023 04:14 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    [TWEET]https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1734349354952233007[/TWEET]

    Banter

    smg58
    Dec 11 2023 04:38 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    A Boy Named Seo wrote:

    I just got a buzz on my phone stating that Shohei will earn a $2M salary EACH YEAR of his contract with the Dodgers, deferring the other $68M annually. Interest-free payments on the balance start in 2034.



    This is fucking incredible to me. He will count against the cap this year the same as our new relief pitcher, Jorge Lopez. LOL


    How long will they be paying him until?

    metirish
    Dec 11 2023 04:41 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    The deferred money -- totaling $680 million -- will be paid to Ohtani between 2034 and 2043, a source said.



    ESPN

    metirish
    Dec 11 2023 04:47 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    [TWEET]https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1734347675435483288[/TWEET]

    Bob finds with silver lining

    metirish
    Dec 11 2023 04:58 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    [TWEET]https://twitter.com/The_GrassyNol/status/1734346246813581414[/TWEET]



    Is this true ?

    Edgy MD
    Dec 11 2023 05:16 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    The Dodgers can just dodge all of that?


    Thus their name, Dude.



    And let's not get bogged down in ancillary issues. The real scandal is that there is a cap at all.

    metsmarathon
    Dec 11 2023 08:52 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Fucking wow.

    batmagadanleadoff
    Dec 11 2023 10:06 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Fucking brilliant!

    Frayed Knot
    Dec 12 2023 06:47 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    I'm surprised that deferred money isn't incorporated into the cap in some fashion;

    iow, why the contract isn't just figured at AAV for cap/lux-tax purposes even if the

    team and player want to configure things in any which manner they want.

    Benjamin Grimm
    Dec 12 2023 06:51 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    I am too. I thought they had closed that loophole.

    metirish
    Dec 12 2023 07:07 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    [TWEET]https://twitter.com/fp_jr/status/1734352856315031682[/TWEET]

    Former player , still in the booth?

    stevejrogers
    Dec 12 2023 07:30 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Benjamin Grimm wrote:

    I am too. I thought they had closed that loophole.


    Considering Bobby Bonilla Day has been an annual meme to troll Met fans with for well over a decade now, yeah I thought the more extreme versions of the practice going forward would have been curtailed a bit.

    Edgy MD
    Dec 12 2023 07:33 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    I'm not so surprised. The cap (or the luxury tax threshold, if you will) is anathema to all union members. It penalizes the well-paid vets and it hurts the young guys just getting their first taste.



    From the ownership side, though, there isn't that sort of unanimity. They all sort of want it. But they want it to restrain their competition's investments, not their own, so I imagine there isn't much passion for them to sic their lawyers on the deal to search and destroy loopholes. They want to find loopholes, maybe, but so they can be the first ones to exploit them.



    Thus is the nature of ownership solidarity in cartel industries — in a constant state of crumbling and being rebuilt. This is why you can always get good dramatic tension out of a gangland summit scene in the movies. "My friends, we're all gentlemen here — surely we can come to an amicable understanding to our mutual benefit that we all intend to violate in spirit as soon as we walk out of the room."

    A Boy Named Seo
    Dec 12 2023 08:17 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    So it is incorporated into the tax. It's still confusing (to me anyway), but Ohtani will count as something like $46M against the CBT despite being paid just two million dollars.



    MLBTR attempts to break it down here (in part, to defend their prediction of the contract he would get, it seems) --> https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/why-shohei-ohtanis-contract-structure-is-not-a-luxury-tax-dodge.html



    A snippet:


    Based on what I've seen on social media tonight, a lot of baseball fans think the purpose of these deferrals is for the Dodgers to “dodge” the competitive balance tax (yes, t-shirts are already being drawn up). Here's why that's wrong.



    The collective bargaining agreement has a section for calculating the CBT hit for a contract that includes deferred money. According to reports, that calculation works out to a $46MM average annual value and accompanying CBT hit for the Dodgers and Ohtani. As you can see here, $46MM tops Max Scherzer's previous AAV record of $43,333,333.33. It's $6MM beyond Aaron Judge's $40MM AAV, which was the highest for a player on a deal of more than three years.



    Not only is $46MM a record AAV, but it's entirely in line with expectations. MLBTR predicted a $44MM AAV for Ohtani. Most other prognosticators were in that range. In fact, the median Ohtani AAV prediction of the other six outlets we're tracking was $45,984,849. It would be almost impossible for Ohtani's luxury tax AAV to have met expectations any harder.

    A Boy Named Seo
    Dec 12 2023 09:39 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    I just read this in an MLB dot com article and this clicked with me --> https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-dodgers-deal-deferrals-explained


    Because the value of a dollar decreases over time, the contract has a present-day value of roughly $460 million for the purposes of the CBT, given that so much of it is deferred for more than a decade. Therefore, the Dodgers will have a CBT payroll hit of roughly $46 million per year for the next 10 years from Ohtani's contract. Essentially, Ohtani offered to defer this much money in order for the Dodgers to have payroll flexibility to continue building a winning team.

    metirish
    Dec 12 2023 09:57 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    What does that mean in the simplest terms , it's very confusing

    Chad ochoseis
    Dec 12 2023 10:06 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    If I give you a dollar today, and you invest it in US Government bonds (which are considered to be 100% safe) at today's interest rates, which are close to 5% annually, in 10 years you'd have 1.05^10, or $1.63.



    So $1.63 paid 10 years from now is considered to be more or less the same as $1 today.



    Without getting into all the twists and turns and subtleties of how it's handled tax-wise and what's considered to be risk-free, that's the basic idea.

    A Boy Named Seo
    Dec 12 2023 10:17 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    And Shohei's not getting that buck sixty-three in 10 years, he's just getting a buck. So even though the actual money is $700M, the value of that stack in 2023 bucks is $460M, so the CBT hit is 460/10 years = $46M (I think I understood that right).



    It's pretty unique and creative as hell on the Dodgers and Ohtani's part.

    metirish
    Dec 12 2023 11:44 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    This is what I'm not understanding, why for CBT purposes is this viewed at $460 million?

    smg58
    Dec 12 2023 12:18 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    So the money is not as ludicrous as it originally looked. I was kind of figuring 10 and 500 would be necessary to get it done, although I still don't think I would have gone that far while doubting he'll pitch for more than half those seasons.

    A Boy Named Seo
    Dec 12 2023 12:49 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...


    This is what I'm not understanding, why for CBT purposes is this viewed at $460 million?



    Basically, the calculation they used said that the $680M Shohei will be owed starting in 2034 is worth about $460M in 2023. Think of it in a bigger window of time maybe. If they deferred Shohei's $68M per year for 100 years instead of 10 years, that $68M will be worth waaaay less in the year 2124 than $68M is today. In a hundred years, maybe Shohei's descendants could only afford a used Honda Civic with that paltry $68M bucks so his contract would be worth a much smaller amount today for CBT purposes. So deferring for 10 years is not such a stark difference, but it's still a difference.



    Or even weirder, if I gave you $20 today, sent you to the supermarket and told you to buy as much as you could and then put you in the DeLorean and sent you to the year 2034 and told you to buy as much as you could at the same supermarket with another $20, you'd be able to buy less because of inflation, etc. Your $20 in 2034 might be valued today at like $13 or whatever.



    So why do all this shit? Why not just sign him to 10 years/$460? I think cause the Dodgers will still be paying him only $2M actual dollars per year instead of $46M, leaving them a lot of real bucks to spend up to and over the CBT if they choose to, and it sounds like they are gonna do just that.



    This has been "Dumb Guy Explains Something He Barely Understands Himself." We hope you enjoyed it.



    PS - I found this article at Fangraphs that breaks down the math, but I don't know if that will make things necessarily easier to digest.



    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shohei-ohani-is-deferring-97-of-his-contract/

    metirish
    Dec 12 2023 01:09 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Great explanation, thanks man

    smg58
    Dec 12 2023 02:36 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    It might take longer than normal to figure out how good of a deal this is. Team budgets may be so big in ten years that the deferments are simply shrugged off. Or there is a crunch at some point, and every dollar counts. And that's before factoring in Ohtani's play.

    nymr83
    Dec 12 2023 05:20 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    The Dodgers are making a few bets here, including that the continued growth of revenues will make this less painful down the road. Think about what the largest contract ever was 20 years ago and then put it on today's payroll - doesn't look quite as big anymore does it?



    Yes inflation over time is real - but the growth of MLB revenues have likely far outpaced it.

    batmagadanleadoff
    Dec 13 2023 09:13 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    =nymr83 post_id=142808 time=1702426819 user_id=54]
    The Dodgers are making a few bets here, including that the continued growth of revenues will make this less painful down the road. Think about what the largest contract ever was 20 years ago and then put it on today's payroll - doesn't look quite as big anymore does it?



    Yes inflation over time is real - but the growth of MLB revenues have likely far outpaced it.





    Yes.



    Top five salaries, 2003:



    1. Alex Rodriguez, Rangers - $22M

    2. Carlos Delgado, Blue Jays - $18.7M

    3. Manny Ramirez, Red Sox - $17.1M

    4. Mo Vaughn, Mets - $17.1M

    5. Sammy Sosa, Cubs - $16.8M

    Edgy MD
    Dec 13 2023 11:03 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    When those contacts were signed, revenues from uniform advertising and gambling partnerships were but a dream. Presumably, the Dodgers anticipate further revenue streams being born over the decades that will offset the long-term investment here.



    If the republic holds and Dodger Stadium doesn't fall into the ocean, they're probably right.

    MFS62
    Dec 13 2023 02:34 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    (Channeling FK)

    If Ohtani had waited one more day to sign, ESPN wouldn't have covered it. All of their shows would have been filled with stories about the first college basketball game for LaBron James' son.



    Later

    Frayed Knot
    Dec 13 2023 04:38 PM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    A couple of further notes on Ohtani's deal



    From the NY Post: [I]The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reports that Ohtani has a clause in the deal which states, “if specific change in

    Dodger personnel, player may opt out of contract at end of season the change occurs.”

    It is unknown at this time which individual's exit from the Dodgers' organization would enable Ohtani to opt out.

    The report is raising eyebrows, as ESPN previously reported that Ohtani's contract did not contain any opt-out clauses.[/I]



    -- if accurate, this is the first clause of this kind I can think of since Henry 'Arthur' Wiggen tied his continued employment

    on the NY Mammoths to that of part-time catcher Bruce Pearson.







    Also: Earlier this week, it was astonishingly revealed that $68 million of Ohtani's annual $70 million compensation would

    be deferred until after his deal is up. Ohtani reportedly earns $50 million in endorsement revenue each year, and felt that

    the deferrals would help the Dodgers be able to afford more elite players around him.

    For Competitive Baseball Tax purposes, Ohtani's contract is worth $46 million per year[/I]    .



    Again, if accurate, that last statement is a lot different from having only $2mil/yr count towards the cap during the active

    years of his contract and would be more along the lines of [I]the way I thought[/I] the lux tax thing worked.







    And finally: Buster Posey, who works in some capacity with SFG since his retirement, says that he thinks SF's current rep of

    high crime and rampant public drug use may have hurt them in the Ohtani-apalooza stakes. He didn't seem to provide any

    evidence of that coming up in negotiations but did say that those topics have been talked about among players and more

    specifically among player wives.

    metirish
    Dec 14 2023 04:38 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    [TWEET]https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1735098943443472447[/TWEET]

    Apparently these are the key people, this is dumb

    Edgy MD
    Dec 14 2023 06:52 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Bill Murray was able to opt of any future Ghostbusters sequels he signed for if they didn't rehire Rick Moranis.



    He ultimately opted not to exercise this right, but it was known as "the Keymaster clause."

    metirish
    Dec 14 2023 07:35 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Edgy MD wrote:

    Bill Murray was able to opt of any future Ghostbusters sequels he signed for if they didn't rehire Rick Moranis.



    He ultimately opted not to exercise this right, but it was known as "the Keymaster clause."






    That's a cool nugget

    Edgy MD
    Dec 14 2023 07:48 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Well, it would be, but I made it up as an awkward play on "Key Man clause."

    metirish
    Dec 14 2023 08:04 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Edgy MD wrote:

    Well, it would be, but I made it up as an awkward play on "Key Man clause."




    Oh, that's even cooler then

    A Boy Named Seo
    Dec 14 2023 08:29 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    "Keymaster or I Gozer"



    -Bill Murray, probably

    kcmets
    Dec 14 2023 08:43 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    Edgy MD wrote:
    Well, it would be, but I made it up as an awkward play on "Key Man clause."


    That's pretty funny. My bullshit detector didn't go off.

    MFS62
    Dec 14 2023 08:50 AM
    Re: Shohei Ohtani is Terrific, But ...

    I got it.

    Well played, as is the Gozer comment.

    Later