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Raise a Libation to the Rotation

Edgy MD Sep 17 2023 08:22 PM

It's hard to tell when the data is small enough that one mis-step can futz up the sample, but it seems the Mets rotation has ... solidified? Stabilized? Excelled maybe? All it took was the dealing off of two Hall-of-Fame-bound starters, and a serious injury to a third guy with over 100 career wins, who may end up in the Cleveland Hall, if nothing else. That plus a few weeks of adjustment, and the pressure off may have helped, too. I can only speculate. Yeah, it's not really showing up that much in the record, and the role of the starting pitcher grows smaller every month it seems, but the current rotation occupants are doing well, day-in and day-out. What this means for their offseason posture, is anybody's guess, but it probably should mean ... something? [fimg=600]https://metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2023/09/era.png[/fimg] [fimg=600]https://metsrostercentral.files.wordpress.com/2023/09/ip.png[/fimg]

Gwreck Sep 17 2023 08:39 PM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

1. Mets have played a much weaker schedule in September. Compare to the 10 games in August against the Braves and Orioles, the two best teams in the majors. 2. Removing Carrasco helps bigtime. He's a nice guy but was just absolutely terrible all year. 3. Quintana's been quite good since he joined the team. What this means for their offseason posture, is anybody's guess, but it probably should mean ... something? Very little. The Mets should expect to add 3 additional starting pitchers from outside the organization if they want to expect to be competitive next season.

Edgy MD Sep 19 2023 01:31 PM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

More September surging from Mets starters: [th]W [/th] [th]L [/th] [th]W-L% [/th] [th]ERA [/th] [th]GS [/th] [th]IP [/th] [th]H [/th] [th]R [/th] [th]ER [/th] [th]HR [/th] [th]BB [/th] [th]IBB [/th] [th]SO [/th] [th]HBP [/th] [th]BK [/th] [th]WP [/th] [th]BF[/th] [th]ERA+ [/th] [th]FIP [/th] [th]WHIP [/th] [th]H9 [/th] [th]HR9 [/th] [th]BB9 [/th] [th]SO9 [/th] [th]SO/W [/th] 6 2 .750 3.76 16 93 2/3 82 29 26 8 31 0 90 3 0 5 382 204 3.54 1.21 7.9 0.8 3.0 8.6 2.90

Centerfield Sep 20 2023 10:44 AM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

Gotta give some props to Jose Butto for doing a nice job as a fill in. A high-ish WHIP suggests that he might be getting a bit lucky, but I think he's worked himself into consideration as a 6-7ish starter/long relief role.

Edgy MD Sep 20 2023 12:14 PM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

Peterson, Megill, and Lucchesi should all be out of options in 2024. It's possible that, going into spring, they keep open one rotation spot for the three to compete over, with Butto as the dark horse. But they won't keep open two. And I guess the competition is happening right now. If they add two starters, that would knock Butto back to eighth, but they could well move or shed from among the Peterson-Megill-Lucchesi trio, moving him a little closer. And then injuries will speak.

Frayed Knot Sep 24 2023 05:56 PM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

Y'know, for all the issues with starters (both young and old) this season, plus all the kvetching about the bullpen, the NYM staff holds a RA/G mark that's 0.14 better than the NL average . The offense OTOH scores at more than 1/4 R/G (0.27) below the league norm and sits 5th from the bottom.

Gwreck Sep 25 2023 12:28 PM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

Frayed Knot wrote: Y'know, for all the issues with starters (both young and old) this season, plus all the kvetching about the bullpen, the NYM staff holds a RA/G mark that's 0.14 better than the NL average Removing Verlander, Scherzer, and Carrasco's contributions (55 games started), the Mets starters have otherwise put up a 4.09 ERA in 101 starts. That would rank 9th in MLB (3rd in the NL). On the whole, the Mets starters have had a 4.27 ERA, 15th in MLB (7th in the NL). As for the bullpen, “kvetching” is not the correct word; the bullpen has been awful, 22nd in MLB (12th in the NL).

Frayed Knot Sep 26 2023 07:09 AM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

No, the pen hasn't been good, a trend that gets magnified in a year when the top-shelf closer misses the entire season. But my point is that the pen, particularly the middle relief, and, let's face it, they're essentially all middle relief now, is almost always low-hanging fruit for fans to bitch about. They shuffle in and out, often getting sent down following good outings, to the point where it's tough to even remember who's who or even who's active on the squad at any given moment. They are, for the most part, forgettable and interchangeable which gives them little to no chance to build up any fan equity. This isn't to say that they deserve a pass -- this is what relief pitching is these days -- only that this particular crew has to be nearly perfect in order to not get blamed both because of how short the starters usually go but even more so because the offense usually gives them no margin for error. So games where the relief corps gives up one run over four innings are met with complaints about 'how the pen blew another one' while ignoring that the bats tallied their final run on an infield grounder back in the 2nd inning leaving the hurlers to walk a tightrope for the rest of the game.

Edgy MD Sep 26 2023 08:53 AM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

A key to improving your pen is always looking to get one more out from your starters. And/or get one more out from your top relievers. When your 11th-best pitcher is blowing games for you, leaning more on your 12th-best pitcher isn't going to get you far. Leaning on good pitchers will eventually blow up on you also, of course, but the current practice of protecting your best pitchers by curtailing and curtailing and curtailing their workloads only to see them injured anyhow isn't working. ONE team has to zag.

Frayed Knot Sep 27 2023 03:51 PM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

Edgy MD wrote: A key to improving your pen is always looking to get one more out from your starters. And/or get one more out from your top relievers. When your 11th-best pitcher is blowing games for you, leaning more on your 12th-best pitcher isn't going to get you far. Leaning on good pitchers will eventually blow up on you also, of course, but the current practice of protecting your best pitchers by curtailing and curtailing and curtailing their workloads only to see them injured anyhow isn't working. ONE team has to zag. Sure. But even with everyone in the pen needing to move up one spot after Diaz's Spring injury - AND the late and/or interrupted starts from Verlander & Scherezer, plus their later trades - AND the cratering of Carrasco - AND the missing half-season-plus from Quintana - AND the regressions (at least until recently) of Megill & Peterson - AND the early season adjustment process of Senga ... the pitching has STILL out-performed the bats, relative to lg average, over the course of the season!

Edgy MD Sep 27 2023 04:19 PM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

I don't and wouldn't dispute that.

Frayed Knot Sep 27 2023 06:33 PM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

And, except for the almost total absence of Starling Marte, there aren't any similar holes in availability on the offensive side. Pete's one IL stay barely lasted the minimum. But Nimmo, Lindor, McNeil, and, once he got here, Alvarez were on the active roster and on the field virtually every day, as was Canha until the trade. Narvaez missed time early but he was hardly expected to be a potent offensive source. It was really just the expected cast of characters badly under-performing expectations.

Gwreck Oct 01 2023 12:17 PM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

Edgy MD wrote: Peterson, Megill, and Lucchesi should all be out of options in 2024. Tim Britton reported today that all 3 have option years remaining for 2024.

Edgy MD Oct 01 2023 12:19 PM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

Well, that's 0% for me, I guess. I really try to get my understanding of options limits right, and I fail over and over. Can you give me a link?

Gwreck Oct 01 2023 08:09 PM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

https://theathletic.com/4916752/2023/09/30/mets-tylor-megill-francisco-alvarez/ Megill's improvement is not isolated in the Mets' rotation. Since the start of September, only the Brewers and Tigers own a better rotation ERA than the Mets. Peterson compiled a 3.88 ERA in his final 10 starts (including the one Thursday in the still-suspended game with Miami), Lucchesi a 1.48 ERA in his four second-half starts and José Butto will take a 3.38 September ERA into the season finale on Sunday. While those are all nice steps forward, the Mets are likely to save room for only one of those pitchers in next year's season-opening rotation, viewing the others as depth. All four will still have minor-league options in 2024.

Edgy MD Oct 01 2023 08:32 PM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

Thanks. I need to leave my poverty behind and get my Athletic subscription.

Centerfield Oct 03 2023 11:48 AM Re: Raise a Libation to the Rotation

The softer schedule may play into the better numbers here. I'd have a hard time feeling comfortable with Megill - Peterson - Lucchesi - Butto being anything but starters 6-9 next year.