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Pedro vs. the Longball

Johnny Dickshot Jun 07 2006 10:12 AM

Pedro is on pace, conservatively, to cough up 30+ HRs this year, after allowing just 19 in 31 starts last year. More (or less) remarkable is the fact that two-thirds of all earned runs against him (18 of 27 so far) have come as a result of the HR. I figured this quick-and-dirty by taking runs scored as a result of a HR as a percentage of all earned runs – it’s posssble that some of the baserunners I’m counting as ERs here reached by error). I have no idea offhand how that compares to other pitchers, but if it’s not in the top 5% I’d be surprised. Thoughts? Cause for legit concern?

Edgy DC Jun 07 2006 10:20 AM

Pedro is so untrackable. He dominates (or is at least successful) every year, but seeems to do it differently. One year he's got a great BABiP. The next year it's off the chart. One year he's giving up a few more walks but not the long ball, the next year the long ball is up but he's even stingier with the walks. The walks, generally, are always low with Pedro. Besides that, he's enigmatic. In staying a few steps ahead of the batters, he seems to be a step or two ahead of analysis also. Right now, his walks are up a little from last year, and his homers are up, as you pont out, markedly. So what does he do? At 34, he's striking out two more batters per nine than last year. What a ride this guy is.

Elster88 Jun 07 2006 10:25 AM

I had thought the longball was a problem for him last year, but then when I looked at the numbers (last year) they didn't show it.