Forum Home

Master Index of Archived Threads


Billy (Benitez/Looper?) Wagner Deathwatch

Nymr83
Jun 22 2006 05:57 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
Somebody post a Billy Wagner Deathwatch thread.


i was going to post comparisons to Benitez and Looper's worst seasons as a Met but i couldn't find blown saves on baseball-reference and who really cares about ERA for a reliever?

MFS62
Jun 22 2006 06:21 PM

I think one of the sites lists saves and save opportunities. They let you do the subtraction. Isn't that the same thing? (Probably not, but I had to ask)

Later

ScarletKnight41
Jun 22 2006 06:22 PM

Blooper!

Gwreck
Jun 22 2006 06:34 PM

I think that because Billy Wagner (and Mets closers in general) have to live in the shadow of Mariano Rivera they can tend to get a short leash.

Nymr83
Jun 22 2006 07:36 PM

Gwreck wrote:
I think that because Billy Wagner (and Mets closers in general) have to live in the shadow of Mariano Rivera they can tend to get a short leash.


That certainly doesn't hurt, but Franco was getting ragged on before Rivera was around.

Part of getting paid the big bucks to close on a contender is getting hammered when you don't pitch well, you can either deal with it, or take alot less money and be a middle reliever in Tampa Bay where nobody cares.

Wagner is fortunate in several respects: he has't (yet) blown a save in a "big spot", he is replacing Looper after Looper's worst year, and he's been lucky enough (or unlucky enough) to only give up enough runs to blow the game...you don't see him pounded for 5 runs or coming into a 3-run game and giving up 2 runs while gtting hte save, consequently his ERA looks better than he has pitched.

SteveJRogers
Jun 22 2006 08:21 PM

Plus his rep is of a "Blow away, Lights Out, Game Over" closer of a Gagne, Benitez, Meyers ilk, not the "Gutsy, grinder who will leave you reaching for the Rolaids, taking 40 minutes to get three outs" type of closer we've been having over the years (Orosco, McDowell, Franco, Looper)

Edgy DC
Jun 22 2006 09:23 PM

To hell with his rep.

Nobody ever said game over when Benitez came in for the Mets on my watch.

Nymr83
Jun 22 2006 09:59 PM

Benitez had a "rep" as a guy who choked in clutch time as an Oriole, I'm not an Orioles fan so i couldn't list his "accomplishments" in that department but I know he was on the mound when that kid stole the ball over the wall against the yankees in the playoffs.

Frayed Knot
Jun 22 2006 10:47 PM

OK, I've had these old stats kicking around that you can use as a Benitez/Wagner comparison. It's from the period that included Benitez's NYM days ('99-'02) although does NOT include his final half-season of '03 - which was actually his worst stretch.

IPsSv/OppSvPctBAAWHiPK/9ERASlgAW-L
Benitez297.3139/15788.5%.1751.1012.292.63.33515 - 11
Wagner240119/13785.6%.1861.0011.962.70.33112 - 12



As I've said many times before, Benitez and Wagner were virtual statistical twins during that stretch. Of course many Met fans were under the impression that ALL closers were better than Benitez and so any one would represent an upgrade - but we all know how much the 'Grass-is-Greener' theorem pervails.

SteveJRogers
Jun 22 2006 11:09 PM

Nymr83 wrote:
Benitez had a "rep" as a guy who choked in clutch time as an Oriole, I'm not an Orioles fan so i couldn't list his "accomplishments" in that department but I know he was on the mound when that kid stole the ball over the wall against the yankees in the playoffs.


When I mean rep, I mean as a fireballer 1-2-3 in 9 pitches type.

Sure that could also be 6 pitches as well, go 0-2, bomb, go 1-2 on the next guy, BOMB...drive home safely

Basically the guy you want on the mound, failures or not.

Along with Mariano Rivera, who are the two greatest closers in the game's history? Goose Gossage and Dennis Eckersley, and they both gave up essentially World Series clinching HRs (to the same guy ironically enough) Both are of the PUNCH-OUT Game Over variety.

There is a reason the ENTIRE Met fan community (not just online) was clamoring for him to be the closer instead of Franco back in April of 1999, and not just because of the Anti-Franco sentiments. And this is with his Baltimore failures allready established (The Maier game, also served up the ALCS winning HR to Tony Fernandez in 1997!

The record for Benitez with the O's in the postseasons of 96-97 is not pretty at all, but Met fans still wanted HIM over Franco, despite Franco having senority over him, and still technically "unknown" in a true Autum Baseball environment, unlike Armando.

Thats what I mean by rep.

Elster88
Jun 23 2006 09:06 AM

I don't plan on looking through the archives for evidence, but I REALLY wanted BJ Ryan in the offseason over Wagner. One guy on the way up in his career, one guy probably just starting, if not already started, on the way down.

seawolf17
Jun 26 2006 11:37 AM

Want Brad Lidge instead? You have to wonder if the Pujols homer messed with his head. Gave up another game-tying home run last night.

Frayed Knot
Jun 26 2006 11:46 AM

Two things are different for Billy Wags this year:

1) WALKS (duh): 17 so far this year. 20 all of last season which is about what his full-season avg has been over the years

2) Many more ground balls. His GB/FB ratio is usually around even. Now he's better than 2:1 GB/FB


Other than that, most other peripherals are around the same.
- His K/9 are actually UP slightly from last year.
- HRs (3) are about on pace for his usual 6-8
- Hits/9 is around his career norms.
- ERA isn't so bad (2.5 or so) and that tends to flucuate over the years and isn't really all that telling for short (or even tall) relievers anyway


Correcting #1 above is obviously the key.
#2 is puzzling mainly because it's so different from his past, but not necc something that need to be "fixed"

MFS62
Jun 26 2006 11:47 AM

seawolf17 wrote:
Want Brad Lidge instead? You have to wonder if the Pujols homer messed with his head. Gave up another game-tying home run last night.


We apparently got the wrong Japanese second baseman. That guy on the White Sox can PLAY. My friend the Chisox fan tells me that he was really their MVP last year. he did all the smart "little things" to help them win, like Fonzie for the Mets in his prime. (But without the power numbers)

Later

Elster88
Jun 26 2006 11:52 AM

Remember when Fonzie hit a home run and Bobby V. pretended to faint. That was funny. I miss Bobby V.

Frayed Knot
Jun 26 2006 11:54 AM

Tad Iguchi is an interesting comparison with Kaz because they're both middle infielders. I heard Bobby Valentine over this past winter say that there was [u:de2f68488a]absolutely no question[/u:de2f68488a] that Kaz Matsui was the better player when both played in Japan. It wasn't even close.

Shit does - and will continue to - happen.



btw, the ChiSox hit Grand Salamis in all 3 games against the Astros.

metirish
Jun 26 2006 11:55 AM

Tad Iguchi made the best play I ever saw a 2nd baseman make, I linked it here somewhere but no idea where the thread is.

Centerfield
Jun 26 2006 11:58 AM

One of the "little things" he did yesterday was have 7 RBI.

Willets Point
Aug 02 2006 10:58 AM



Not Dead Yet!

metirish
Aug 05 2006 09:38 PM

Fastball and Slider, is that enough?, Wagner scares me , in a short post season series he'll have us all on the edge.

Edgy DC
Aug 05 2006 11:24 PM

I've never know a team's fan base --- Yankees' included --- to not be "on the edge" bringing their closer into a tight game in a post-season series of any sort.

Willets Point
Sep 05 2006 05:14 PM

And now he's a Cy Young frontrunner?

Frayed Knot
Sep 05 2006 07:48 PM

I don't consider him to actually be a CY candidate, but the 'DeathWatch' was probably overdone:

MONTHIPsSAVES/OPPsHitsERHRsBBsKsBAA
APRIL13.07 / 9812515.170
MAY13.04 / 51171720.220
JUNE10.24 / 5620511.176
JULY12.17 / 7821111.178
AUGUST12.110 / 111132218.234




Mainly, he's calmed down the wildness of the early season.

Gwreck
Sep 05 2006 09:28 PM

Willets Point wrote:
And now he's a Cy Young frontrunner?


Only according to what was determined to be flawed formulae.

Willets Point
Sep 05 2006 09:43 PM

Ah, I missed the part where it was determined to be flawed. But I did put a question mark there you know.