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KTE: The Friars
W - L 58-53
Currently Leading NL West by a very small margin in what's still a 5 team race. If you look at BP's odds reports they're sitting at a 56% chance of getting to the playoffs (40% as champs, 16% as WC winners) and are having a right old ding dong with the challengers to their crown but with their Californian rivals the LA Dodgers for the lead who are closing in fast having won TEN straight. So it's a crucial series for the Padres who could see themselves leapfrogged by the Dodgers and still under pressure from the third place d'backs if they don't get 2 in Shea.
However, that's not really the biggest story here, the biggest story is that it marks Mike Piazza's return to Shea Stadium. My favourite ever Met (although David Wright and Carlos Beltran are going to start giving him a run for his money!) and the source of NUMEROUS arguments, discussions & debates returns to the venue of some of his famous hitting and infamous throwing. So how has the "washed up" catcher done on his first year out of the spotlight and without the burden ?
Pretty damn well infact, by being well spotted, rested and complemented as part of a two headed tandem (at the moment the other head is josh bard - more about him later!) he's been back to the Piazza of nearly as good as 02-03 ranking as the 6th best catcher in the Majors in VORP (with 23.2 in 305 pa's - for the record Lo Duca is 19.7 in 383 pa's). One thing that you DO notice in the hitting charts is where he used to hit a whole chunk of his HR's to centre-right this season that's been where he's been having fly ball outs to.
Of course that's the good part of his game, the bad part is his throwing and that's been pretty bad this year. With over 66 steals against him and only 6 caught stealing's I think it's safe to say there's a green light for Reyes, Wright, Valentin, Chavez, Milledge and Beltran this series - not that his replacement in our colours has been that much better (Paul Lo Duca - Stolen Against - 64 Caught Stealing 17). Anyway, Piazza's hitting makes up for the throwing and he's been a key component of a moderate rather then offense.
So for those of you that are there, be sure to give Piazza the standing ovation that he deserves.
Right - that bit over with, what about the rest of the team.
As I mentioned the offense is rather less then spectacular - with 500 runs they're firmly in the bottom half of the NL (13th) and while some of that could be to do with Petco's dimensions (interestingly this year with the changes made in the off season it's been fine for home runs but it's REALLY depressed doubles) most of it's due to the fact that as a lineup it isn't THAT threatening.
1. LF Dave Roberts: (LH) AVG/OBP/SLG .312/.391/.432
An Old Fashioned leadoff hitter with excellent plate discipline to go with a healthy average and a excellent wheels. He's currently third in the NL steals with 34 successful thefts (and only 4 cs's). Sure you'd like power from the position but he's a very valuable player when healthy.
2. RF Brian Giles: (LH) .273/.378/.384
This was NOT what the Padres expected when they spent $30 million (at a supposed home town discount) to lock up Giles the elder till 2008, he seems to have been bumped to the 2-hole for the last week or two in an attempt to get his bat going, but the power that Giles showed in the early naughties seems to have entirely disappeared. With his batting eye intact he's still a useful player - but he's sorta been like Bobby Abreu very light. (Fun fact, Giles was dealt to the Padres by Pittsburgh for Jason Bay - formerly met property - and Oliver Perez - current met property! and Cory Stewart - currently residing in the 'where are they now' file)
3. CF Mike Cameron: (RH) .262/.343/.471
We all know what we think of Mike Cameron; great guy, great centre-fielder and more useful with the stick then anyone has a right to expect (especially those people in Seattle who got him for the want-away Griffey). But still as GOOD as he's been, it's worth pointing out that OUR no. 3 hitter AND centre-fielder has hit .281/.384/.619 - which is the kinda line that has you with a 10+ game lead rather then clinging to first by your fingertips. Still following a TERRIBLE start Cameron's come nicely around to being his *very good* self.
4. C Mike Piazza (RH) .297/.354/.525 OR C Josh Bard .333/.402/.536
We've talked about Piazza already, but if he doesn't catch (and he won't catch all of the games) he'll be replaced by Bard both behind the plate and (if recent outings are anything to go by) in the clean up spot - that must be some kind of history a backup catcher hitting clean up but I digress. Bard's a great story for San Diego - having for SOME REASON BEST KNOWN TO KEVIN TOWERS given away Mark Loretta (that's one of the top 5/6 2b 'men) for perennial back up catcher Doug Mirabelli they then got to reverse the fleecing when Josh Bard simply couldn't cope with catching Tim Wakefield's knuckleball. Now, at age 28 it's quite possible that this is simply a 150 ab bit blip but Bard has shown occasional signs of power in the past so maybe it's more then just catching a little lightening in the bottle.
5. 1b Adrian Gonzalez (LH) .306/.355/.518
Addition by subtraction is an overused concept BUT if there's one recent example of it's validity of a concept it's Ryan Klesko's injury at the start of the year. Without that there's no way that the Gonzalez (who'd come as part of the Adam Eaton for Chris Young trade from Texas) would have got the chance to start and prove that the people touting him all those years ago in Florida actually knew something. Having been begat by wrist injuries for the last few years Gonzalez has put it all together. At 25 he might be a little old to truly emerge as an elite player but right now he's having as a productive a year as Carlos Delgado and for a lot less $$$
6/7/8 2b/3b/SS
SOME combination of
Khalil Greene (SS) (RH) .259/.329/.453
Josh Barfield (2b) (RH) .289/.326/.417
Geoff Blum (2b/SS/3b) (SW).248/.293/.343
Mark Bellhorn (2b/3b) (SW) .191/.288/.358
Todd Walker (2b/3b) (LH) .357/.357/.429
Unless he hasn't recovered from a sprained finger Greene's a lock to start, but the other four have been switching and flip flopping all over the place as they try and get the newly acquired bat of Walker into the lineup and wake the bats of the slumping Barfield and the inept Blum & Bellhorn.
The one good bit of news is that THERE'S NO MORE VINNY CASTILLA.
In truth it's a soft lineup at the bottom and one that the Mets starters SHOULD take advantage of to go a bit deeper then they have in recent times.
Pitching Match Ups
Woody Williams, RHP (4-3, 3.84) v Steve Trachsel, RHP (10-5, 5.12)
Clay Hensley, RHP (7-8, 4.33) v Pedro Martinez, RHP (8-4, 3.48)
Chris Young, RHP (9-5, 3.78) v Orlando Hernandez, RHP (7-8, 4.97)
The Mets catch a bit of a break by avoiding a resurgent Jake Peavy, who seems to have overcome his first half trials and tribulations to be back towards the pitcher that we saw breakout last year. In stead their left with Old Man Williams (whose 3.84 era is an illusion caused by a bunch of unearned runs and a good start to the season) who rejoined the Padres last year after four successful years with the Cardinals. At this stage he's turning into a guy who doesn't strike out as many as he used to and is hit JUST that bit harder then he used to - meaning he's a league average rotation guy in a nice protective home park (em like Tom Glavine?)
Clay Hensley prospered on his initial foray into the Majors last season, pitching mainly in relief. He moved into the rotation in April, on his second start he gave up 4 runs against us in 5.1 innings but unfortunately we had Victor Zambrano pitching for us, and it was one of the bad days. Hensley's done the job that we've just about eked out of Bannister, Pelfrey & Maine combined - he's no world beater though.
Chris Young has been San Diego's best pitcher so far this season; acquired in an off-season deal for Adam Eaton, he's prospered in Petco and has been a hell of a lot better then the much more expensive Eaton (who due to injury only just made his first start of the year for the Rangers). At 6 ft 10, it's possible that his first full season in the Majors is starting to take it's toll though, since July he's given up 22 runs in 31.2 innings in 6 starts.
The Bench;
The Padres bench is pretty thin despite having acquired the offense minded Walker at the deadline. Obviously whomever misses out in the infield (don't forget that 2 from 4 scenario up above) and at Catcher (between Bard & Piazza) is riding the pine. They're also carrying a third catcher the switch hitting Rob Bowen, who is having nearly as good a season as the other two. It's hard to know if the 800+ ops is real though considering it only comes in only just over 60 plate appearances. At 25 it's safe to say Bowen will get a chance to develop over the next year or two and prove (or not) his major league worth. Then finally you've got the "he's not on steriods cause he's only slging .385" Ben Johnson as fourth OF. Suffiece to say, the only real weapon to fear is which ever of the two main catchers is on the bench. I'll say this though, I don't want Piazza PH'ing against us in the 9th inning with men on.
The Bullpen
Trevor Hoffman has had a touch of the Billy Wagner's this year, with general dominance punctuated by the odd flare up too. He blew three out of six save opportunities post the all star game (where he also blew a save), but has since recorded 4 scoreless innings recording 3 saves to lead the National League with 30.
The rest of the bullpens a bunch of odds and sods, but watch out for Linebrink's vulnerability against Right Handers (he's a righty himself) Embree's (the only portsider - definitely a problem against the mets) death grip on lefties (.580 ops against).
Ok, that's all i have time for folks ...
LETS GO METS
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