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Post Season Chances

Rotblatt Sep 20 2006 11:25 AM

I figure this can be a catch-all place for thought about our chances. I'll kick it off with an article from [url=http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5541]Baseball Prospectus[/url]. Last year, they looked at why teams do well in the post-season. Somewhat suprisingly, they found the following three elements : ]A power pitching staff, as measured by normalized strikeout rate. A good closer, as measured by WXRL. A good defense, as measured by FRAA. In other words, perhaps conventional wisdom got it right. ]Of the dozens of team characteristics that we tested for statistical significance, in terms of their relationship with winning post-season games and series, these were the only three that mattered. Ending the year hot doesn’t make a whit of difference, for example, nor does having a veteran club, or a smallball offense. More remarkably, all three of these characteristics relate to run prevention, rather than run scoring. That does not mean that offense is of no importance in the playoffs. But there is a lot of noise in the postseason record, and offense did not produce enough signal to emerge through it. The reasons are too complicated to get into here, but have to do with what happens when good offenses face good pitching. Pitching does have some tendency to dominate these match-ups, whether they occur in the regular season or in the playoffs. Because "plus pitching" versus "plus hitting" duels occur more frequently in the post-season, we tend to notice the effects more then. But enough of their methodology. Here's the breakdown: 1. Blue Jays: 17.5 composite score 2. Twins: 18.5 (does NOT include Liriano) 3. Angels: 21 4. Mets: 22 5. Red Sox: 30 6. Rangers: 35 7. Astros: 35 8. Yankees: 36.5 9. Mariners: 38 10. White Sox: 38.5 11. Phillies: 39 Note the large gap in score between #'s 4 & 5, and the even larger gap between us and the next NL club. The write-up about us: ]The Queens Gothams would seem to bear little resemblance to the Piranhas from the Prairie, but in some ways the Mets and Twins are similar clubs. Both teams have excellent closers, and defensive assets all over the field. Each will live and die based on the health and performance of its #1 starter. And both may be bound for the World Series. And they close with: ]Here, ladies and gentlemen, are your "secret sauce" playoff results, based on projected matchups as of this morning: Twins 3, Yankees 1 Tigers 3, A’s 2 Mets 3, Dodgers 0 Padres 3, Cardinals 1 Twins 4, Tigers 2 Mets 4, Padres 1 Twins 4, Mets 3 Twins-Mets would be a lot of fun, particularly given the gamesmanship over how best to deploy Santana and Pedro Martinez. That said, if my formula is disproven by a team like, say, the Tigers, I wouldn’t be too upset.

Yancy Street Gang Sep 20 2006 11:30 AM

You know, if the postseason unfolded that way, it would be only slightly less than perfect. I'd go into the winter content. And maybe a bad hop single can turn the results of World Series Game 7 in our favor.

Edgy DC Sep 20 2006 11:40 AM

Steinbrenner, beaten by a team he's subsidizing.

HahnSolo Sep 20 2006 11:57 AM

How about them Tigers exacting some revenge for Lerrin Legrow.

HahnSolo Sep 20 2006 11:58 AM

Do the Mets really have defensive assets all over the field?

Willets Point Sep 20 2006 11:58 AM

I don't like all those road games in the western time zone.

Rotblatt Sep 20 2006 12:03 PM

="Yancy Street Gang"]You know, if the postseason unfolded that way, it would be only slightly less than perfect. I'd go into the winter content. And maybe a bad hop single can turn the results of World Series Game 7 in our favor. I totally agree, Yancy. I'd be a little dissapointed, but content. I think if we do face the Twins, their having home field advantage will really hurt us. They're H/A splits are crazy (.676/.513). It's all going to come down to Pedro, though. We might still make it through the NL rounds, given our stellar bullpen, but we're going to have a hard time against any AL opponent without Petey. Although . . . Last Three Starts Glavine 20.3 IP, 2.22 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 14 K, 4 BB El Duque 19.3 IP, 1.87 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 17 K, 8 BB Maine 17.3 IP, 3.12 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 13 K, 7 BB Trachsel 13.3 IP, 4.73 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 5 K, 10 BB With the exception of Trachsel, those are some pretty darn good numbers, and with any luck, Monday was a turning point for the old boy. Throw a relatively healthy Petey into that mix, and we could do quite well in the post-season.

Edgy DC Sep 20 2006 12:09 PM

="HahnSolo"]Do the Mets really have defensive assets all over the field? I'd say we've had a pretty strong defensive season at most postiions, left field being anotable exception. Working from a three-tiered ranking system. Lo Duca: Asset. Delgado: Liability, but he's had a god year. He may, in fact, be neutral. Valentin: Surprisingly, an asset. Wright: An asset, certainly since mid-season, anyhow (around when his bat started cooling). Reyes: Asset. Floyd: Liability. Beltran: Asset. Green: Liability. Bench: Castro: Asset (if he comes back healthy). Franco: Neutral. Woodward: Neutral. Hernandez (if he makes the squad): Neutral (but could make a game-breaking play either way). Chavez: Asset. Milledge: Probably neitural, but possiblly a liability.

Yancy Street Gang Sep 20 2006 12:11 PM

I think Delgado is better than most people think. His range isn't great, but when he's near the ball he handles it quite well.

MFS62 Sep 20 2006 12:12 PM

]Hernandez (if he makes the squad): Neutral (but could make a game-breaking play either way). That was funny. I'd rank Floyd as neutral. When (and if) healthy, he's about on a par with most other left fielders. Later

Rotblatt Sep 20 2006 12:12 PM

HahnSolo wrote: Do the Mets really have defensive assets all over the field? Sure! Valentin's been one of the best in the league defensively, according to BP's FRAA, as has Beltran. Green & Floyd have been about average, and Endy's been remarkably good in limited time. Wright's been above average, and Lo Duca and Delgado have been been below average. According to FRAA, the only real dark spot has been Reyes, which I kind of don't understand.

metirish Sep 20 2006 12:13 PM

Is Green decent at first base?,if we make it to the WS we could play him there and DH Delgado with Chavez in RF.

Rotblatt Sep 20 2006 12:14 PM

metirish wrote: Is Green decent at first base?,if we make it to the WS we could play him there and DH Delgado with Chavez in RF. I love that idea, Irish. I'm afraid that Willie will go with Franco instead, though . . .

MFS62 Sep 20 2006 12:17 PM

Green played a lot of first base when he was recovering from a bad arm. But I'm not sure how he compares defensively with Delgado. Carlos certainly has morre experience at the position. Later

Edgy DC Sep 20 2006 12:18 PM

I'd far prefer Castro in the outfield with Floyd DHing. Points for originatlity, but I expect that's a downgrade at first.

MFS62 Sep 20 2006 12:33 PM

Edgy DC wrote: I'd far prefer Castro in the outfield with Floyd DHing. Castro is slower than most known mollusks. Do you think Floyd is that bad? Later

Edgy DC Sep 20 2006 12:57 PM

Looking for Chavez in the outfield in actuality.

MFS62 Sep 20 2006 01:05 PM

Better choice. Later

Valadius Sep 20 2006 01:09 PM

I was gonna say... man that would suck having Castro in the outfield.

smg58 Sep 20 2006 02:18 PM

Every year when the postseason starts, you get some article from one of the numbers nerds out there debunking the notion that "pitching is everything." And as long as you take pitching to be 100% absolutely everything, it's an easy one to debunk. But they invariably invoke stats that really do suggest that good pitching will get you farther than good hitting. Delgado is actually very good (at least from what I've seen) at reaching for slightly errant throws, but that kind of thing shows up in the range factor and zone rating (not to mention fielding percentage) of the other infielders, not him. I could see the Twins beating out the Yankees in a five-game series. If Santana wins twice, they only have to win one more out of three. Santana and Liriano together would have made them really scary, though.

Edgy DC Sep 20 2006 02:22 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Sep 20 2006 02:32 PM

Yeah, obviously the three-tiered system (I was just responding to "Do the Mets have assets all over the field?) ignores a world of nuance.

Frayed Knot Sep 20 2006 02:26 PM

]But enough of their methodology. Here's the breakdown: 1. Blue Jays: 17.5 composite score 2. Twins: 18.5 (does NOT include Liriano) 3. Angels: 21 4. Mets: 22 5. Red Sox: 30 6. Rangers: 35 7. Astros: 35 8. Yankees: 36.5 9. Mariners: 38 10. White Sox: 38.5 11. Phillies: 39 So I'm assuming this is: low number = good? And what do those numbers represent? ... a sum of scores showing how close to 1st place in the various categories?

Rotblatt Sep 20 2006 03:11 PM

]So I'm assuming this is: low number = good? And what do those numbers represent? ... a sum of scores showing how close to 1st place in the various categories? Yup. That's all exactly right. Below's the intro paragraph along with the headers for the author's table. ]In the table below, I’ve ranked the 30 MLB clubs based on their performance in the three key departments. Strikeout rate is measured by the Davenport-translated strikeout rate, as available on the team DT pages. Although strikeout rate is not highly dependent on park effects, it is rather dependent on league; National League pitchers record strikeouts about 4% more often than their American League counterparts. The DT translations correct for this. WXRL refers to the performance of the closer only, defined as the pitcher who has recorded the most save opportunities for his club over the course of the season. (Entertainingly--or not--Bob Wickman qualifies as the closer of both the Indians and the Braves). EqK9 RANK FRAA RANK WXRL RANK Composite Twins: 6.7 EqK9 / 2.5 / +4 FRAA / 13th / 5.95 WXRL / 3rd Mets: 6.3 EqK9 / 10th / +17 FRAA / 8th / 5.37 WXRL / 4th MFY: 5.9 EqK9 / 18.5 / +6 FRAA / 11th / 5.18 WXRL / 7th White Sox: 5.9 EqK9 / 18.5 / +14 FRAA / 9th / 3.78 WXRL / 11th Phillies: 6.5 EqK9 / 8th / 0 FRAA / 16th / 3.27 WXRL / 15th Tigers: 5.9 EqK9 / 18.5 / +26 FRAA / 3rd / 2.21 WXRL / 18th

metirish Sep 22 2006 10:25 AM

We're screwed...Boss George has this to say... ] "We're going to win it," Steinbrenner told The Associated Press in an interview conducted last week. "We're going all the way."

Yancy Street Gang Sep 22 2006 10:27 AM

That will make it all the more fun if they get eliminated in three ALDS games.

Willets Point Sep 22 2006 10:32 AM

That would be nice, but I predict the Yankees will sweep the ALDS and win the ALCS in 5 games with a minimum of 5 runs in each winning. The NL Pennant winner has an uphill climb to prevent the hoisting of trophy #27.

Yancy Street Gang Sep 22 2006 10:34 AM

I think our best hope to keep the Yankees out of the World Series is Minnesota.