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Jose, Jose Jose Jose. Jose. Jose.

Rotblatt Sep 25 2006 03:55 PM

I was just checking out Jose's 2006 PECOTA forecast, and thought I'd share. 50th percentile projections: 587 PA, 41 extra base hits, 28 BB, 63 K, 51 SB, 14 CS, 78% SB .272 AVG / .310 OBP / .384 SLG / .694 OPS / .112 ISO 90th percentile projections: 670 PA, 64 extra base hits, 39 BB, 70 K, 70 SB, 24 CS, 75% SB .332 AVG / .373 OBP / .496 SLG / .869 OPS / .164 ISO actual numbers so far: 679 PA, 66 extra base hits, 50 BB, 80 K, 60 SB, 17 CS, 78% SB .300 AVG / .353 OBP / .493 SLG / .846 OPS / .193 ISO Jose exceeded PECOTA's wildest dreams in the following categories: 1. Playing time. He's been very healthy (knock on wood). 2. Plate discipline. He walked significantly more than even the rosiest of projections. While he's also struck out more than expected, his BB/K ratio bettered all projections at .625. 3. Power. Jose's IsoP of .193 is far better than any projections. While his 90th percentile slugging percentage is marginally higher than his actual percentage, it's all tied up in his batting average. Jose's matched expectations in SB%, although it looks like he's attempted fewer stolen bases than expected. In short, Jose has had a miraculous season so far. I know we're all aware of that fact, but given that at the beginning of the year, his 90th percentile looked like a crack dream only the most devoted fanboy could have . . . Amazing.

metsmarathon Sep 25 2006 04:52 PM

in our predictions game, i had him pegged at 0.355 its one of only a few stats i think i have a chance at getting right in that thing, btw...

Yancy Street Gang Sep 25 2006 05:00 PM

I'll be Ryan Howard beat his Pecota too. (Isn't that what David Cone was once accused of doing, by the way?)

Rotblatt Sep 25 2006 08:29 PM

Nope! They underestimated his playing time, but he's not quite at his 90th . . . 90th: 61 HR, .331 AVG / .429 OBP / .750 SLG / 1.179 OPS Actual: 58 HR, .314 AVG / .420 OBP / .673 SLG / 1.093 He is comfortably between his 80th & 90th percentiles, though, and that's pretty darn good.

Edgy DC Sep 25 2006 08:38 PM

This perhaps is where the leather-eared scouts were ahead of the numbers. If you saw him often enough, you knew he was more than capable of a breakout year. In fact I'd say that athletic-type players improve like they play, in big bursts, relative to refined-skill-type players. On the other hand, if you saw him play often enough last year, you were convinced that he decided whether or not to swing before the pitcher threw the ball --- that he had not a clue what a strike looked like --- and that he still reverts to that when he's not going so well.

Rockin' Doc Sep 25 2006 09:32 PM

With regards to Reyes, it appears that PECOTA is about as accurate at forecasting as our local weatherman.

Frayed Knot Sep 25 2006 11:05 PM

It all beats the hell out of our pre-season discussions (spawning at least 3 lengthy, and often heated, threads) which had us hoping that he could even reach an OBP of .311

Rockin' Doc Sep 25 2006 11:42 PM

Yeah, but we're all just an elitist clique of arrogant know it all geeks. So it shouldn't be a surprise that we weren't even close with our projections.

metirish Sep 25 2006 11:46 PM

Reyes won't win the MVP but should win the Mets MVP...I mean who the hell thought he would be this good?...

duan Sep 26 2006 05:04 AM

Carlos Beltran is the mets MVP, no two ways about it in my book.

MFS62 Sep 26 2006 09:05 AM

Edgy DC wrote: This perhaps is where the leather-eared scouts were ahead of the numbers. If you saw him often enough, you knew he was more than capable of a breakout year. In fact I'd say that athletic-type players improve like they play, in big bursts, relative to refined-skill-type players. On the other hand, if you saw him play often enough last year, you were convinced that he decided whether or not to swing before the pitcher threw the ball --- that he had not a clue what a strike looked like --- and that he still reverts to that when he's not going so well. Edgy. There were posts about two ballplayers just before yours- Ryan Howard and Jose Reyes. Which player were you talking about ? It might be said for both. Later

Elster88 Sep 26 2006 09:47 PM

That's the greatest chant to come out of Shea. Other than Let's Go Mets of course.

Edgy DC Sep 26 2006 09:50 PM

MFS62 wrote: ="Edgy DC"]This perhaps is where the leather-eared scouts were ahead of the numbers. If you saw him often enough, you knew he was more than capable of a breakout year. In fact I'd say that athletic-type players improve like they play, in big bursts, relative to refined-skill-type players. On the other hand, if you saw him play often enough last year, you were convinced that he decided whether or not to swing before the pitcher threw the ball --- that he had not a clue what a strike looked like --- and that he still reverts to that when he's not going so well. Edgy. There were posts about two ballplayers just before yours- Ryan Howard and Jose Reyes. Which player were you talking about ? It might be said for both. Later Reyes.

Frayed Knot Sep 26 2006 10:28 PM

="Elster88"]That's the greatest chant to come out of Shea. It's not going to be a great chant until it starts coming spontaneously. As of now it only shows up when prompted by the sound system, putting it only a few notches above; ev'rybody clap yo hands!

seawolf17 Sep 26 2006 10:31 PM

="Frayed Knot"] ="Elster88"]That's the greatest chant to come out of Shea. It's not going to be a great chant until it starts coming spontaneously. As of now it only shows up when prompted by the sound system, putting it only a few notches above; ev'rybody clap yo hands! I thought it did come spontaneously; we've been to Shea twice, and both times it was started every time up by a bunch of fans. I thought the PA system picked up on it and ruined it.