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60%

RealityChuck Oct 11 2006 01:13 PM

[url=http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2006-10/njio-mh6101006.php]Mets have 60 percent chance of winning league championship series[/url] ]Mets have 60 percent chance of winning league championship series, says Bukiet at NJIT The New York Mets have a 60 percent chance of taking the the National League Championship series, with a 24 percent chance of clinching the deal in six games, said Bruce Bukiet. Bukiet, an associate professor of mathematical sciences at New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT), offers new picks for winning teams based on a mathematical model he developed in 2000. More picks include: * A 40 percent probability of the St. Louis Cardinals making it to the World Series with a 19 percent chance of winning in seven games. * In the American League, the Yankee-slaying Detroit Tigers have a 58 percent chance of prevailing over the Oakland A's. The Tigers' most likely winning scenario is a 19 percent chance of winning in six games, while Oakland's most likely winning scenario is their 15.5 percent chance of taking the series in seven games. Bukiet achieves results by using his mathematical models on realistic line-ups for each team and game. For updates on the progress of the series, visit [url]http://m.njit.edu/~bukiet/playoffs.htm[/url]). "Anything can happen in a short series," added Bukiet. "We saw that in the division series Jeff Weaver yielded no runs for the first time in over 30 outings. In addition, the Yankees were held scoreless for 21 consecutive innings." Operations Research published Bukiet's mathematical model on which his predictions are based. His model computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage. Bukiet has appeared on CNN Headline News, the Jerusalem Post and Fox Radio's Roger Hedgecock Show, KOGO, San Diego. Interview Bukiet in person at 518 Cullimore Hall, by telephone (973-596-8392) or email bukiet@m.njit.edu. Bukiet, an avid Mets fan, has used this mathematical model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games during the baseball season. His picks posted on his website update daily the chances of each team winning the Division Series, the Championship Series and the World Series. Such postings have led to positive results for five of the past six years. ### Bukiet's research focuses on the mathematical modeling of physical phenomena. Current interests include biomedical applications of mathematics, including the dynamics of human balance. He also works in the application of mathematical modeling for sports and gambling, in particular for understanding baseball and cricket. His publications include "Postural Stability Index Is a More Valid Measure of Stability Than Equilibrium Score" Journal of Rehabilitation Research and Development (July/August, 2005) and "Measures of Postural Stability," Journal of Rehabilitation Research and Development (Sept/Oct, 2004). Bukiet recently received the NJIT Excellence in Teaching Award for Outstanding Work. Bukiet received his PhD in mathematics from the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University. NJIT, New Jersey's science and technology university, enrolls more than 8,000 students in bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees in 92 degree programs offered by six colleges: Newark College of Engineering, New Jersey School of Architecture, College of Science and Liberal Arts, School of Management, Albert Dorman Honors College and College of Computing Sciences. NJIT is renowned for expertise in architecture, applied mathematics, wireless communications and networking, solar physics, advanced engineered particulate materials, nanotechnology, neural engineering and eLearning. In 2006, Princeton Review named NJIT among the nation's top 25 campuses for technology and top 150 for best value. U.S. News & World Report's 2007 Annual Guide to America's Best Colleges ranked NJIT in the top tier of national research universities.

MFS62 Oct 11 2006 01:45 PM

DARN! That takes all of the mystery out of watching the games. I guess we now know who's going to win. Later

Rotblatt Oct 11 2006 01:48 PM

MFS62 wrote: DARN! That takes all of the mystery out of watching the games. I guess we now know who's going to win. Later Totally. I'm choosing to ignore that his model also picked the Twins & Yankees as "shoo-ins."

metsmarathon Oct 11 2006 02:05 PM

wow. i mean, having a 60% chance of something is no guarantee, but this model, on october 3rd, had the following picks: yankees 76% twins 70% dodgers 58% padres 62% the odds of getting all four wrong, based on those numbers.. is .... um... if i remember my probability and statistics class right... 24% x 30% x 42% x 38% = 1.12% 99 times out of a hundred, he wouldnt be this wrong if the model worked. now, there's a chance that this year was that one time in a hundred, but i'm thinking... he might want to go in and tweak some of those assumptions...

MFS62 Oct 11 2006 02:11 PM

Maybe that's why he is only an associate professor and not the department head. Or maybe, just maybe, why he is at NJIT and not MIT. Later

metsmarathon Oct 11 2006 02:30 PM

that's why we made fun of them at Stevens (Hoboken) Institute of Technology. the "hoboken" is typically insterted for the sake of humor.

seawolf17 Oct 11 2006 02:56 PM

You went to Stevens Tech? Our table is usually next to theirs at college nights. Their Connecticut rep is great.

metsmarathon Oct 11 2006 03:38 PM

the only way i could walk-on, barely able to run a full mile and 6 months after collapsing a lung, to a cross country team in my 3rd year and become captain of the track team by my 5th year was to go to a small division three engineering college, surrounded by sidewalks on three sides and a river on the other, in hudson county, new jersey. i had it all planned out! is the connecticut rep a young guy? if so, i wonder if i might know him...

seawolf17 Oct 11 2006 03:57 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 11 2006 04:16 PM

Yes, but she's a girl; her name is **undisclosed**. She's been there two years or so, I think. She just started blogging on the Stevens Tech admissions site -- something I'm doing for Stony Brook also, so we talked about that a bit the other night. edit: On the "real names" comment. I suppose that makes sense.

Yancy Street Gang Oct 11 2006 04:09 PM

We probably shouldn't post the real names of private citizens here without their consent.

metsmarathon Oct 11 2006 04:15 PM

oh well. don't think i've ever heard of her.

metsmarathon Oct 11 2006 04:17 PM

what, we're just talking about concordia university's star outfielder...

Willets Point Oct 11 2006 04:17 PM

Yancy Street Gang wrote: We probably shouldn't post the real names of private citizens here without their consent. Too late. The Google Image Searches have begun!