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Edgy DC Jul 15 2005 04:33 PM |
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I like to look at net games back -- that is the games back a team is behind everybody. It's an answer to those who'll tell you that games back is a misleading when there are a lot of teams between your team and the leaders.
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Edgy DC Jul 18 2005 02:07 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 18 2005 02:19 PM |
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So here. In the last few days, the Mets have lost no ground to the first-place Nationals, but have in reality backslid in the Net Games Back column, by losing games to the second- and third-place teams.
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metirish Jul 18 2005 02:11 PM |
That's great work, the Mets are 4-2 versus the West, lets improve on that this week
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Benjamin Grimm Jul 18 2005 02:18 PM |
Your new standings column makes a lot of sense.
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Edgy DC Jul 21 2005 07:54 PM |
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Roy Oswalt shuts down the Nationals in Washington for eight innings, yielding only six hits and no walks. But the world being such as it is, Phil Garner turns the 3-0 lead over to Brad Lidge, who hangs on after giving up a 400-foot two-run homer to Preston Wilson. DC drops into a tie for first, after being alone up there since June 4.
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metirish Jul 21 2005 08:55 PM |
Not a bad day for the NY NL team in the NL East, big thanks to the Dodgers and Astros, Mets are 7-2 V the West, love that.
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Edgy DC Jul 25 2005 12:49 PM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Jul 25 2005 01:07 PM |
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Easily overlookable in the Mets' recent good spate is that the Marlins have had a good weekend also, leaving every team in the division at least two games over .500. Obviously that's pretty unsustainable, but who is going to drop first?
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ABG Jul 25 2005 01:01 PM |
Aren't the Mets 6.5 NGB, not 7.5?
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Edgy DC Jul 25 2005 01:03 PM |
3.5 games behind Atlanta +
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Centerfield Jul 25 2005 01:05 PM |
I think you might have a typo regarding Washington's win total. Same as Atlanta, no?
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Edgy DC Jul 25 2005 01:07 PM |
Yup. Fixed.
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Rotblatt Jul 25 2005 01:09 PM |
Phillies should be 7 games back, then, right?
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ABG Jul 25 2005 01:20 PM |
Yeah, I just based my comment off of where I saw us relative to the Phils.
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Edgy DC Aug 07 2005 06:16 AM |
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Edgy DC Aug 07 2005 01:11 PM |
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ABG Aug 07 2005 03:58 PM |
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that it's doubtful the Rockies will make the playoffs.
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Edgy DC Aug 07 2005 10:01 PM |
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Florida leapfrogs from fourth to second in both races.
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Edgy DC Aug 08 2005 07:42 AM |
Go ahead. Try not to picture those standings if the Met bullpen held on in those two Milwaukee games.
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Rotblatt Aug 08 2005 12:26 PM |
I was looking at our schedule, and in trying to decide what a decent but realistic run by us would look like, given our opponents, I came up with the following W-L record 30-21. That would mean we take 2 of 3 against every team we face EXCEPT the Braves (to whom we lose 2 of 3 each 3-game set), St. Louis (to whom we lose 3 of 4 in our 4-game set) & Colorado (where we win 3 of 4). Totally arbitrary, but also plausible, although I'd hope we'd at least split our series against the Braves. Having said that, we'll probably lose at least one series against a team I've said we'd win, so it's almost kinda sorta balanced.
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Elster88 Aug 08 2005 01:24 PM |
I am usually the last person to acknowledge morale and chemistry as important parts of baseball. But this team is winning me over. Between the giggling on the bench and the way everyone jumps around (in a non-phony, non-Jeter way), to celebrate wins and good play (see recent Caption This thread) it looks like they're having fun. I think one of the reasons to believe this team has a chance is that they believe.
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Frayed Knot Aug 08 2005 09:06 PM |
Mets sit on their asses and catch the Marlins tonight as Fish get stomped twice by Rox.
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Rotblatt Aug 09 2005 01:34 PM |
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BP's Hit List puts the Metsies at 10th overall in the majors:
That's good enough for #4 in the National League, but since Atlanta & Houston are ahead of us, it doesn't matter so much. Or does it? According to their Playoff Odds report (which I believe takes into account current standings, RA & RS as well as strength of remaining schedule), we have a 22.86% shot at the playoffs this year (9.28% shot a champions, 13.59 at wild car), behind Houston, who currently has a 46.50% shot. If we manage to pull into second place, our odds will likely increase pretty dramatically. None of the other contending NL Easters are given as much of a shot as us, based largely on the fact that we have the biggest difference between Adjusted RS & RA in the league at 54(compared to 52 for the Braves). The adjustment is done for strength of schedule, so what that means is that, according to BP, we've faced tougher opponents than the Braves. More specifically, the Braves' opponents have had average pitching and well below-average hitting, while we have faced average pitching and somewhat above-average hitting. The difference is great enough to give us a 46-run gain against them in our differentials. Anyway, my point is that stats are neat. And that if we continue to score and limit runs the way we have so far this season, we'll probably continue to gain ground in both the East and in the WC race.
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Edgy DC Aug 11 2005 06:09 AM |
Yawn. Another big game tonight. Third place in the division and in thie wildcard standings are both within reach. Every team in the division is 4-6, 5-5, or 6-4 over their last ten. Chicago, losing their last eight, looks like the first team to have blinked in the wildcard scramble.
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Willets Point Aug 11 2005 09:52 AM |
Where's Bret? All this winning is bringing out euphoric optomism. I need some cold, hard reality to balance things out.
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Rotblatt Aug 15 2005 11:03 AM |
So in order to get back to the pace I laid out for us, we have to sweep either Pittsburgh or Washington and take 2 of 3 from the other team.
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Elster88 Aug 15 2005 11:52 AM |
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Didn't even need him, the Mets themselves provided reality. I'm in a bad mood. I hate days off after losses.
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Edgy DC Aug 16 2005 09:46 PM |
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How did DC get back into second? And who'd've guessed we were as good as anyone in the division over the last ten?
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Elster88 Aug 18 2005 08:26 AM |
BUMP
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Edgy DC Aug 18 2005 08:30 AM |
Yeah, the plan is to update these after each series. But suffice to know that, in the last three days, the Mets have cut their net deficit off the wildcard to eight, and off the division lead to 13.
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Elster88 Aug 18 2005 08:31 AM |
My apologies. 2.5 seems much more exciting to me than 3.5, for some reason.
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Frayed Knot Aug 19 2005 09:02 AM |
Post-Season Odds - at least according to the folks at [u:694d8f2bc5]Baseball Prospectus[/u:694d8f2bc5] who "played"
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Edgy DC Aug 19 2005 09:11 AM |
A total shot then of 14.56%. for the Mets.
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Benjamin Grimm Aug 19 2005 09:14 AM |
So the Mets have a 15% chance of making the playoffs, and the Yankees have a 63% chance of missing.
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Frayed Knot Aug 19 2005 11:57 AM |
I believe that site will update those numbers on at least a
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Edgy DC Aug 20 2005 12:28 PM |
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I'm supposed to update every series, but it's more fun to do after a win.
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Elster88 Aug 20 2005 08:19 PM |
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Oh sure. I go to the trouble of bumping a couple of days ago and get bitch slapped, and now you change your mind. j/k.
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Valadius Aug 20 2005 09:53 PM |
Atlanta, Florida, Houston, and Washington (thankfully) lose.
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OlerudOwned Aug 20 2005 09:58 PM |
Slowly but surely, now 2 games back. Though it would be nice to try to get a win by more than one run, I wont push my luck
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Edgy DC Aug 20 2005 10:03 PM |
Philadelphia is now your wildcard leader. Mets are two games back and five games back net behind four teams.
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SI Metman Aug 20 2005 11:35 PM |
It's a half game between each of the wild card teams from the Phils down to the Mets.
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Valadius Aug 21 2005 08:16 AM |
How bout them apples? Half-games through- it's certainly not unthinkable, but we gotta do some leapfrog.
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Elster88 Aug 22 2005 10:53 AM Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Aug 22 2005 02:26 PM |
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>>>Anybody else willing to take over, be my guestical.
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Valadius Aug 22 2005 11:08 AM |
So basically we shot ourselves in the foot in interleague play, besides our much-maligned road woes. We're entering make-or-break time here, folks- either we take some damn road games, or we resign ourselves to another missed opportunity.
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Elster88 Aug 22 2005 11:19 AM |
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Combine the two. 1-5 at Oakland and Seattle.
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HahnSolo Aug 22 2005 02:00 PM |
One thing that stands out from another team: The Houston road record is at Met-like levels, but I don't much hear the same commentary from the media that they can't play on the road.
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Nymr83 Aug 22 2005 02:15 PM |
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Because they are winning. Wait until 2 of the NL East teams are ahead of them in the standings and we'll see if the media still isn't bashing their road record. Secondly, it's possible they have improved on the road in the 2nd half, they have certainly improved overall. The Mets on the other hand have had huge road meltdowns lately. And last, but certainly not least, a team playing in NYC will inevitably receive extra media attention and praise/criticism.
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seawolf17 Aug 22 2005 02:19 PM |
Nymr, I forgot to thank you... I'm honored to have been quoted in your sig.
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Valadius Aug 22 2005 02:23 PM |
There are 16 teams in the NL. There are 14 teams in the AL. While 14 NL teams play 14 AL teams, 2 NL teams face each other. I vaguely remember facing Philly during interleague play, and I'm assuming the other teams had an NL series with someone else.
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Elster88 Aug 23 2005 06:41 AM |
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Elster88 Aug 23 2005 06:46 AM |
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Elster88 Aug 24 2005 06:56 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Aug 24 2005 06:57 AM |
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Tied Washington!
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Elster88 Aug 24 2005 06:57 AM |
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One loss seperating the five teams.
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Elster88 Aug 25 2005 06:58 AM |
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Rotblatt Aug 25 2005 07:52 AM |
Updated Playoff Odds Report from BP
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Johnny Dickshot Aug 25 2005 09:23 AM |
These late-nite games are killing me too (I passed out of exhaustion in the 8th last night) but Thursday Gay Dames are especially tough on my work sked.
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Centerfield Aug 25 2005 10:08 AM |
I...plan to be loaded up on caffeine, beer and maybe crack for 2-nite's game.
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duan Aug 25 2005 10:43 AM |
The key is the Astros. We play interdivisional stuff virtually all september (except what might be a rather painful trip to St. Louis and the hosting of the Rockies for the final series.
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Centerfield Aug 25 2005 10:58 AM |
That three city road trip to St. Louis, Atlanta and Florida is going to be a doozy. Those ten games will make or break or season.
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metirish Aug 25 2005 11:02 AM |
It's just great though to be playing August games that count, the last three have been horrible.
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metirish Aug 25 2005 11:02 AM |
It's just great though to be playing August games that count, the last three have been horrible.
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Rockin' Doc Aug 25 2005 08:40 PM |
metirish - "It's just great though to be playing August games that count, the last three have been horrible."
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Elster88 Aug 26 2005 07:04 AM |
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So, how does everyone feel this morning?
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Benjamin Grimm Aug 26 2005 07:07 AM |
I feel like I'm being deluded into thinking that the Mets have a chance at the playoffs, even though they're now within 1.5 games of a spot, and have fewer teams to pass. I feel like it's all a scam to keep me spending money to see aged veterans on a team that, even if it gets to the playoffs, has no chance of winning. And even if it wins the World Series, has no chance of repeating for the next seven years.
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seawolf17 Aug 26 2005 07:11 AM |
I feel two things...
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Rotblatt Aug 26 2005 07:35 AM |
I feel suspicious.
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ABG Aug 26 2005 07:39 AM |
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I'm not quiiiite at the point of no return with this team, but I'm rapidly approaching it. 2 outta 3 this weekend, and I'm sunk.
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Elster88 Aug 26 2005 07:40 AM |
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Alpha-order for ties. They'll have to earn that second row by getting sole possession. Or by changing the team name to the Flushing Mets.
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Rotblatt Aug 26 2005 09:27 AM |
Updated Playoff Odds Report from BP
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Johnny Dickshot Aug 26 2005 10:20 AM |
Even cooler is seeing the odds rise or fall by 10% or more after a single day. I forget what day it was where I was arguing with Sal on this but less than a week ago, the Met odds were 17% playoffs, <10% for the division IIRC.
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Farmer Ted Aug 26 2005 12:57 PM Odds |
Mental note...while in Vegas in January I put 20 bucks down on 8-1 odds for the Mets to win it all. I could be a lucky weiner.
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Willets Point Aug 26 2005 01:09 PM |
Odds don't mean shit. Only wins count.
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Farmer Ted Aug 26 2005 01:14 PM |
Odds are that you'll never get that photo from last year's Wrigley game if you can't swing me an email address.
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Elster88 Aug 26 2005 11:25 PM |
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Every team in this post won, except the Braves.
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Edgy DC Aug 26 2005 11:43 PM |
Great job in this thread.
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Elster88 Aug 27 2005 10:51 AM |
Winning the division would certainly be nice, but let's not forget playoffs is playoffs.
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Benjamin Grimm Aug 27 2005 12:13 PM |
One advantage of winning the division is, if the wild card also comes from the East, the Mets would get a first round against San Diego, with home field advantage.
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Johnny Dickshot Aug 27 2005 12:45 PM |
Our playoff odds increased by 1% -- we're now a 39% playoff team (22.4% WC + 16.8% division).
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Elster88 Aug 29 2005 06:29 AM |
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Elster88 Aug 30 2005 08:18 AM |
Find the standings as of end of day 8/29/05 here:
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Edgy DC Aug 30 2005 08:26 AM |
My "net games back" era is drawing to a close.
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Rotblatt Aug 30 2005 08:42 AM |
We remain the odds-on favorite to reach the wild card, according to BP:
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Benjamin Grimm Aug 30 2005 09:01 AM |
I'm looking forward to seeing what the odds will be on Friday morning, after the three games with the Phillies.
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Elster88 Aug 30 2005 09:07 AM |
The SBS is going to give you the beating of your life.
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Benjamin Grimm Aug 30 2005 09:11 AM |
I have a thick orange hide.
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Willets Point Aug 30 2005 09:16 AM |
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I remember the Septembers of 1998, 1999, 2000. & 2001 when the Mets started the month flying high, but September ended up being unfun (well 99 & 00, all was well that ended well, but the Mets had divisional title hopes crashed in those years' Septembers).
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Elster88 Aug 30 2005 09:18 AM |
We're also not really flying high right now.
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Willets Point Aug 30 2005 10:11 AM |
Well I was going on Yancy's theory of a possible three-game sweep of the Phillies leading us into September. I think that would mean the Mets have won 9 of their last 12 games which is a pretty good way to start the last month of a season but no guarantee that the last month will continue that success.
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Elster88 Aug 30 2005 10:25 AM |
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_____________________________ This post was made under the posting designation 170) Barry Lyons
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Benjamin Grimm Aug 30 2005 11:07 AM |
I've never understood the conventional wisdom that the loss column is more important than the win column.
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Elster88 Aug 30 2005 11:11 AM |
I look at it this way. If we're down one win, and tied in the loss column, we can win the game ourselves and be tied. If we have one extra loss, and are tied in the win column, the other team has to lose. The whole "controlling your own destiny" deal.
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Benjamin Grimm Aug 30 2005 11:17 AM |
That only matters if you're making up a rainout after the season ends.
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Elster88 Aug 30 2005 11:45 AM |
I disagree, per the reasoning above. Obviously it gains more importance when you're making up that last game rainout then it does today.
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Elster88 Aug 30 2005 08:34 PM Edited 4 time(s), most recently on Aug 30 2005 08:56 PM |
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Updating for the Houston game.
Shower and bed time. Someone take care of this after Atlanta/Washington is done?
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Edgy DC Aug 30 2005 08:40 PM |
A game.
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SI Metman Aug 30 2005 10:44 PM |
tied in the loss column is the most important stat, especially since that extra game is against the Rockies (or Cardinals depending how you look at it).
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Edgy DC Aug 30 2005 10:46 PM |
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All games present and accounted for.
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Nymr83 Aug 30 2005 10:47 PM |
Delgado was a fool. The only thing making the Marlins as good as the Mets right now IS Delgado. If Delgado had come here and Seo had stayed up all year (or Heilman had been left in, or anything else happened to get friggin Ishii gone sooner) the Mets would probably be 3 or 4 up in the wildcard race.
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Rotblatt Aug 31 2005 08:33 AM |
Playoff Odds Reports: Updated 8/30/05 from BP
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Vic Sage Aug 31 2005 08:38 AM |
somebody tell Bret the Red Sox Fan that he is absolutely forbidden to enjoy a Mets WC race in september.
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Willets Point Aug 31 2005 09:37 AM |
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Why don't you tell him yourself if it's such a big deal to you?
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Rotblatt Aug 31 2005 09:39 AM |
Oh, and Delgado's a lying liar who lies. In my completely uninformed opinion, he went to Florida because he didn't want to share the spotlight with Beltran. The "better chance to win" thing was because he didn't want to sound like an egotistical fucktard.
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OlerudOwned Aug 31 2005 09:44 AM |
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One thing I learned from MVP Baseball. Miguel Cabrera looks great in a Met uniform
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Vic Sage Aug 31 2005 09:47 AM |
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because i don't want to be a pompous prick, you pompous prick.
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Elster88 Sep 01 2005 08:11 AM |
Ugh. I'll post after the afternoon game.
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Rotblatt Sep 02 2005 07:47 AM |
Time to take our medicine, fellow Mets fans.
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Edgy DC Sep 02 2005 07:49 AM |
I don't like my medicine.
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seawolf17 Sep 02 2005 08:03 AM |
All we have to do is go 7-3 on this trip, and we're right back in this thing.
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Elster88 Sep 08 2005 09:03 AM |
I don't feel like posting the standings anymore.
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