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Where do i find a current list of top Met prospects?

Vic Sage
Oct 30 2006 09:59 AM

Knot, I'm speaking to you!

MFS62
Oct 30 2006 11:58 AM

Here ya' go.
From Gotham Baseball:

http://www.gothambaseball.com/news/1156661106.php

If I find another list, I'll post it here.

Later

Edgy DC
Oct 30 2006 12:02 PM

Hi, Mark.

Mark Healey
Oct 30 2006 12:06 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
Hi, Mark.


lol...

Frayed Knot
Oct 30 2006 12:07 PM
Re: Where do i find a current list of top Met prospects?

="Vic Sage"]Knot, I'm speaking to you!


Didn't realize I was the authority on this sort of thing.


Baseball America will start their annual take on each team probably starting in the next week or two. They'll release their review of a new team every few days at [url=http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/]their website[/url] (or one division at a time via their bi-monthly newsstand magazine) between early November and around February or so -- meaning that their NYM list could be as soon as next week or not for a few months yet depending on which order they choose.
A non-subscriber will get access to some info via the site but blocked out of others (like you'll get their top-10 list but not individual scouting reports). If you want the write-ups find a newsstand and buy the one issue where they scout the NL East. If top-10 isn't enough for you they sell a handbook where they go 30-deep in each system.

John Sickels is also considered an authoritative view on this sort of thing and will do a similar review for minorleaguebaseball.com at some point over the winter.


If you want something NOW!!!! a little internet searching will probably turn up various lists with some Met fan's opinion of the minor league world. Whether his/her opinion is worth anything is anyone's guess.

Any list still left over from last year will be so out of date at this time as to be virtually worthless.

MFS62
Oct 30 2006 12:11 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
Hi, Mark.


That post, and his response, both earn high marks.

Later

Edgy DC
Oct 30 2006 12:15 PM

Mark, do you have a more up-to-date list?

Vic Sage
Oct 30 2006 12:28 PM

]Any list still left over from last year will be so out of date at this time as to be virtually worthless.


well, yeah, thats the problem. I've searched all over and i'll i'm finding is stuff from the spring 06, at the latest.

I have no interest in PAYING for this sort of info, so i guess i'll just have to wait for the BA and Sickels updates.

I just figured our own FK could list our current top 30-50 prospects off the top of his head.

Edgy DC
Oct 30 2006 12:30 PM

What did Smith do this year? Turned his ankle badly or something, wans't it?

Mark Healey
Oct 30 2006 12:37 PM

Edgy DC wrote:
Mark, do you have a more up-to-date list?


Working on one now...we usually update the laist (even in the offseason) for the realese of each mag issue...as BA and other places do, we use a panel of scouts, team personnel and others to compile the ranksings and this is a tough time to get feedback...I might wait until the Winter Meetings in Orlando (when a lot of those people are in the same place) to do it...

Phil Humber and Mike Carp will def be on the new list, though...

Frayed Knot
Oct 30 2006 12:43 PM

]I just figured our own FK could list our current top 30-50 prospects off the top of his head.


Hell no, I don't even pretend to be an expert on this sort of stuff.
I'll be shakey after 4 or 5.

Pelfrey & Humber didn't play enough to ruin their 'prospect' status so they'll be at/near the top but I don't think Milledge is still eligible, meaning that the remaining names are going to be mostly lower-level "potential" guys, but no one real polished or all that close to the show.

No use subscribing to BA is all you want is the basic list - although coughing up the 3-4 bucks for that one issue just to get the quickie write-ups on the top 10 guys isn't a bad idea.

Edgy DC
Oct 30 2006 12:49 PM

Jesus Flores will move up. Martinez certainly didn't hurt himself this year (except that he literally hurt himself). Just treading water, at the rate the Mets have pushed him, is impressive.

I know it's usually not smart to get too excited over minor league relievers when these lists are made. But Henry Owens has to make most top tens. Striking out 74 in 40 innings and holding opponents to a .136 batting average is bootylicious.

Henry is in the Dominican Republic Winter League now.

Vic Sage
Oct 30 2006 02:13 PM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 30 2006 02:55 PM

Okay, so far thats:

major leaguers:
L.Milledge (OF)
A.Hernandez (SS)
B.Bannister (RHP)
A.Soler (RHP)

and:
C.Gomez (OF)
M.Pelfrey (RHP)
P.Humber (RHP)
F.Martinez (OF)
J.Flores (C)
H.Owens (RHRP)
J.Niese (LHP)
D.Guerra (RHP)
A.Concepcion (OF)
M.Lindstrom (RHP)
J.Smith (RHP)
M.Carp

keep it going...

Edgy DC
Oct 30 2006 02:21 PM

Smith and Concepcion are fallback candidates.

Vic Sage
Oct 30 2006 02:31 PM
Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Oct 30 2006 03:22 PM

what has happened to:

Emmanuel Garcia, SS
Brett Harper, 1B,
Robert Parnell, RHP
Ryan Coultas, SS
Matthew Durkin, RHP
German Marte, RHP
Shawn Bowman, 3B
Nick Evans, 3B
M.Pinango (RHP)
C.Coles (OF)
Michel Abreu (1b)
Kevin Mulvey (RHP)
Bobby Malek (of)
Brandon Nall (RHP)
Steve Schmoll (RHP)
Dustin Martin (OF)
Drew Butera (C)
Blake Eager (RHP)

Frayed Knot
Oct 30 2006 03:06 PM

Vic Sage wrote:
Okay, so far thats:


My guesses:

L.Milledge (OF) -- Too much ML time, no longer a prospect
C.Gomez (OF) -- Top 5 guy in our system, I'll be more interested to see how they view this guy in the wider universe of all prospects (that list comes out in early March)
M.Pelfrey (RHP) -- Top 5
P.Humber (RHP) -- Ditto
F.Martinez (OF) -- Ditto again,
J.Flores (C) -- Top 10
H.Owens (RHRP) -- Not sure how he's viewed
J.Niese (LHP) -- Top 10
D.Guerra (RHP) -- Top 5
A.Concepcion (OF) -- Top 10?
M.Lindstrom (RHP)
J.Smith (RHP)
M.Carp -- Top 10
Anderson Hernandez, SS -- Might not be eligible, and wouldn't rank too high even if he is
Brian Bannister, RHP -- Top 10 if he's still eligible
Alay Soler, RHP -- Too much ML time, not eligible

and what has happened to:

Emmanuel Garcia, SS
Brett Harper, 1B, -- possible top 10
Robert Parnell, RHP -- moving up I'd guess, but nothing eye-popping, possible top 10
Ryan Coultas, SS
Matthew Durkin, RHP
German Marte, RHP
Shawn Bowman, 3B
Nick Evans, 3B
M.Pinango
C.Coles
Michel Abreu (1b)
Kevin Mulvey (RHP) -- Not much of a track record to date
Bobby Malek (of) -- Future utility guy at best
Brandon Nall (RHP)
Steve Schmoll (RHP)
Dustin Martin (OF)
Drew Butera (C)
Blake Eager (RHP)

Vic Sage
Oct 30 2006 03:22 PM

Waner Mateo, RHP
Sean Henry, 2B
Junior Contreras, 1B
Jacob Ruckle, RHP
Parris Austin, OF
Hector Pellot, 2B
Corey Ragsdale, SS
Edgar Alfonzo, LHP
Jose Coronado, SS
Aaron Hathaway, C
Joe Holden, OF
Courtney Billingslea, OF
Matt Spath, OF
Jamar Hill, OF
Andy Wilson, 1B

Edgy DC
Oct 30 2006 04:32 PM

Soler and Bannister each clocked under 50 innings, so both should still be eligible.

OlerudOwned
Oct 30 2006 05:48 PM

Emmanuel Garcia, SS
Brett Harper, 1B, -- possible top 10
Robert Parnell, RHP -- moving up I'd guess, but nothing eye-popping, possible top 10
Ryan Coultas, SS
Matthew Durkin, RHP
German Marte, RHP
Shawn Bowman, 3B
Nick Evans, 3B
M.Pinango
C.Coles
Michel Abreu (1b)
Kevin Mulvey (RHP) -- Not much of a track record to date
Bobby Malek (of) -- Future utility guy at best
Brandon Nall (RHP)
Steve Schmoll (RHP) -- DL with bad hammy
Dustin Martin (OF) -- Making strides, but still early
Drew Butera (C) -- [url=http://cybermessageboard.ehost.com/getalife/viewtopic.php?t=2552]Struggling[/url]
Blake Eager (RHP)

Johnny Dickshot
Oct 30 2006 05:54 PM

]Matthew Durkin, RHP


This guy was Duke's 2nd pick, in a pretty sweet draft position, in '04 I guess.

I know he's been hurt, but what of him otherwise? Like, can he be good? Be a shame to know we'd wasted that pick.

MFS62
Oct 30 2006 06:56 PM

Miguel Pinango was a minor league free agent - released by the organization.

Later

Edgy DC
Oct 30 2006 09:45 PM

Andrew Wayne Wilson took a U-Turn. After winning awards going .284 / .370 / .532 // .902 at St. Lucie in 127 games (20 of them behind the plate) in 2005, he regressed to .226 / .303 / .335 // .638 in 90 games in 2006.

He's from Zanesville, OH, the town that makes Mets, so he has that going for him, but he sure didn't look like he's making the big squad anytime soon, and he's 25. Zanesville can't help him now.

ABG
Oct 31 2006 07:29 AM

Edgy DC wrote:
Andrew Wayne Wilson took a U-Turn. After winning awards going .284 / .370 / .532 // .902 at St. Lucie in 127 games (20 of them behind the plate) in 2005, he regressed to .226 / .303 / .335 // .638 in 90 games in 2006.

He's from Zanesville, OH, the town that makes Mets, so he has that going for him, but he sure didn't look like he's making the big squad anytime soon, and he's 25. Zanesville can't help him now.

Other than Payton, who else is from Zanesville?

Edgy DC
Oct 31 2006 07:36 AM

Mike Bordick.

MFS62
Oct 31 2006 07:38 AM
Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Oct 31 2006 07:42 AM

Waner Mateo, RHP 0-5, 3.94 at Hagerstown

Sean Henry, 2B - being converted to a centerfielder. .275-4-27 at Kingsport,.254-3-14 at Hagerstown.

Junior Contreras, 1B Big guy, 6'5" 230. .288-3-25 at Kingsport, .250 - - (7 games) at Brooklyn.

Jacob Ruckle, RHP 5-2, 3.39 (13 starts) at Brooklyn, 4-4 1.60 (9 games, 6 starts) at St Lucie) a comer, but relatively low K totals.

Parris Austin, OF .167 in 5 games at Kingsport, then ???

Hector Pellot, 2B .189 in 100 G at Hagerstown. 'nuff said.

Corey Ragsdale, SS Where do I begin? He's the poster boy for the Peter Principle. He was elevated to AA this year, and responded with a .204-10-37 season with 182 strikeouts. I still feel that if the Mets hadn't drafted him at #2 and given him a big bonus, he'd have been long gone by now. He reportedly has a very strong arm (to go with his bad hands) and may be tried as a pitcher.

Edgar Alfonzo, LHP 5-7, 6 saves, 3.95 for St. Lucie. his 73IP in 30 G means he's not just a LOOGY. He's still young, but will have to pick it up to stay as a prospect.

Jose Coronado, SS the 18/19 year old was sent to St. Lucie, where he hit .226-4-0 in 138 games. Looks like he was rushed too much.

Aaron Hathaway, C Left the organization early in the year.

Joe Holden, OF The centerfielder hit .300-6-25 in 38 G for Hagerstown, then , for some strange reason, was sent back to Brooklyn, where he hit.230-6-24. It must have been a shock to be demoted.

Courtney Billingslea, OF Hit .125-3-6 with 47K in 96 AB in the GCL. Bye

Matt Spath, OF Hit .229-0-13 in 27 G in the GCL. Bye
Jamar Hill, OF Hit .235-6-28 in 78 G at St. Lucie The halo is starting to tarnish.

Andy Wilson, 1B see Edgy's post.

Later

Benjamin Grimm
Oct 31 2006 07:41 AM

I don't mind if the Mets hang on to Ragsdale in an attempt to get something from their investment. That kind of thing bothers me more on the big league level than it does in the minors.

Courtney Billingslea? She sounds cute! And she was able to hit three homers! Pretty good!

MFS62
Oct 31 2006 08:14 AM

Some others:
Emmanuel Garcia, SS .291-3-25 in 47G at Kingsport, then .216-0-0 at Brooklyn (10 G)

Brett Harper, 1B, Played only 19 G at Binghamton,then got injured - out the remainder of the season.

Robert Parnell, RHP His adoptive parent can fill you in.

Ryan Coultas, SS .232-0-0 in 26G for Hagerstown

Matthew Durkin, RHP 0-1 8.59 (14 IP) in GCL, 0-0 0.00 (4.2 IP) at Kingsport, 0-0, 0.00 (3 IP) at Hagerstown. Still a mystery.

German Marte, RHP 2-0, 0.00, 4 S (9 IP) at Brooklyn, 3-0, 4 S, 2.58 at Hagerstown

Shawn Bowman, 3B .252-3-19, 39K in 119 AB at St.Lucie, then injured. Yet to show the promise they anticipated.

Nick Evans, 3B .254-15-67 in 137 G at Hagerstown. He will move up in the prospect lists. Has been projected to move to first base, so Mike Carp will be in his way up the ladder.

Michel Abreu (1b) .332-17-70 at Binghamton. The Cuban refugee's age is anywhere from 27 (listed) to 31 (anecdotal), But ay carramba! He can hit.

My overall analysis - there appear to be no near-term potential middle infield regulars anywhere in the pipeline other than Anderson Hernandez.

Later

Frayed Knot
Oct 31 2006 08:30 AM

I'm not sure Melville had his ship captain pursue that overgrown fish as much as MFS chases after Ragsdale.
He's an organizational infielder at this point but the minors are full of those guys. Meanwhile, there's no way that mgmt is keeping him around in some vain attempt to recoup 2nd round bonus money from 5 years ago. The dollar amount (whatever it was) simply can't be that high and it's not like Ragsdale's presence is blocking younger stars.

MFS62
Oct 31 2006 08:39 AM

Frayed Knot wrote:
I'm not sure Melville had his ship captain pursue that overgrown fish as much as MFS chases after Ragsdale.


You're not too far off in that estimation.
LOL!


BTW- IIRC his bonus was around $900K. That sounds high for a second rounder, but that the number that sticks in my head.


EDIT:

"Its not personal, Sonny. Its business." Michael Corleone

I'm sure Corey is a nice guy, kind to his mom, buys girl scout cookies and loves animals. But my feelings toward him are out of the frustration that, as you said, he's not blocking anybody. And that's because the Mets haven't come up with any decent middle infielders (except for Reyes) for him to block since they drafted him.

Incidentally, my opinion of Corey led to a 10+ page thread that has lasted all season on another board. Some of the replies in defense of Corey are quite funny, and were intended to be.



Later

Frayed Knot
Oct 31 2006 09:05 AM

The thing is, you constantly hold him up as THE PRIME example of draft picks gone wrong when, in fact, his journey is far more common than not.

BA once did a study of 10 years worth of draft picks (late '80s thru mid-'90s I think).
Of the 223 2nd Round picks (only counting those who signed) less than 10% (21) became regular players and only 7 of those 21 became what BA considered "good" regulars or legit "stars". Meanwhile, over half (118) [u:579cf6afbf]never played a day[/u:579cf6afbf] in the majors, with the remainder consisting of those who got just a brief cup-of-coffee (66), or those who hung around for a few years as fringe MLers (18).

And bonus money is so structured these days that very few get anything above what the "slot" dictates. I don't think that was anything unusual about the size of his bonus or that it's the reason he's not flipping burgers at this point.

MFS62
Oct 31 2006 09:14 AM

He is my personal pet peeve. Everyone has one. And it is usually irrational. I plead guilty to that.

Those numbers are interesting, but not unexpected. What bothers me is that the organization kept promoting him even after disasterous seasons, not letting him develop at one level before moving him up. I wonder if the same thing happened to many of the others (90%+ according to your post)who didn't make it.

He admittedly had tools when drafted. I believe the organization may have done him an injustice by not giving him the coaching that would have allowed those tools to be turned into baseball skills.

Later

Johnny Dickshot
Oct 31 2006 09:18 AM

What a relief to know your tiresome Corey Ragsdale act isn't annoying just us.

Edgy DC
Oct 31 2006 09:18 AM

We're supposed to debate you on this when you insist on being irrational?

And then hang that over everybody else's head?

MFS62
Oct 31 2006 09:26 AM

How am I "hanging this over everybody's head"?
Its my opinion.

If you don't agree with it, I don't force anyone to respond to it. Someone asked for an evaluation of Mets prospects and I gave mine. I gave my opinion on several prospects others were interested in, too.

He is my symbol of the ineffectiveness of the Mets organization just as much as some characterize the Vince Coleman M-80 incident as an example of a badly run team. Its my perrogative to do so.

Later

metirish
Oct 31 2006 09:31 AM

Anyone know how Concepcion is doing,FK has him as a questionable top 10 prospect...has he fallen back or is he on the up?

Edgy DC
Oct 31 2006 09:35 AM

="MFS62"]How am I "hanging this over everybody's head"?
Its my opinion.


="MFS62"]He is my personal pet peeve. Everyone has one. And it is usually irrational. I plead guilty to that.


This isn't about everyone. You catch others making irrational arguments, I expect you to call them on it. And you can expect them not to acknowledge the irrationality on one hand and go right on merrily working it on the other.

="MFS62"]Its my perrogative to do so.


Fine. As continuously shown above and elsewhere, it's annoying, and, not immaterially, such foolishness lends discredit to other things you have to offer.

But it's your perogative.

Lack of self-awareness is abosulutely epidemic.

Edgy DC
Oct 31 2006 09:36 AM

Concepcion has fallen. Showing little power.

Valadius
Oct 31 2006 10:03 AM

ABG wrote:
="Edgy DC"]Andrew Wayne Wilson took a U-Turn. After winning awards going .284 / .370 / .532 // .902 at St. Lucie in 127 games (20 of them behind the plate) in 2005, he regressed to .226 / .303 / .335 // .638 in 90 games in 2006.

He's from Zanesville, OH, the town that makes Mets, so he has that going for him, but he sure didn't look like he's making the big squad anytime soon, and he's 25. Zanesville can't help him now.

Other than Payton, who else is from Zanesville?


Edgy was thinking in the right direction. It's not Bordick, though, but Kurt Abbott.

Edgy DC
Oct 31 2006 10:06 AM

Duh, of course. Abbott. Michigan-born Bordick was from Maine, and a rare speieces of another stripe --- an undrafted free agent that makes the bigs and flourishes.

Johnny Dickshot
Oct 31 2006 10:16 AM

Anyway, what's the poop on Matt Durkin?

Frayed Knot
Oct 31 2006 11:38 AM

MFS62 wrote:
What bothers me is that the organization kept promoting him even after disasterous seasons, not letting him develop at one level before moving him up. I wonder if the same thing happened to many of the others (90%+ according to your post)who didn't make it.

He admittedly had tools when drafted. I believe the organization may have done him an injustice by not giving him the coaching that would have allowed those tools to be turned into baseball skills.



Again, I don't think any of this makes Ragsdale different from virtually any other prosepct.
There's no point in warehousing guys at those lower (short-season) rungs of the farm. Those are there as much to find out whether the new boys can play well with the other kids and to teach them to live away from home (or learn English in the case of the Latin kids) as much as anything.

Look, either this guy will get better at some point or he'll wash out and start learning the phrase "want fries with that?". If/when he becomes a 6-year guy he'll have some other options to boot. In the meantime, he's drawing a paycheck and filling a spot that needs filling while not adversly affecting anyone in the org.

metirish
Oct 31 2006 11:40 AM

I never heard of the guy until this thread...

Frayed Knot
Oct 31 2006 11:50 AM

metirish wrote:
Anyone know how Concepcion is doing,FK has him as a questionable top 10 prospect...has he fallen back or is he on the up?


Keep in mind that's nothing more than my non-expert guess.

But it also could be treated as a good sign in that we now have others who can push him out of a top-5 spot. The recent high draft picks (Humber, Pelfrey) and Latin signings (F Martinez, Guerra, Gomez) are better, younger, and/or more polished.

Concepcion's problem is that he was always older than his level, having only acheived his somewhat lofty perch by having a good year against younger players in split-season Brooklyn. But, just as you don't get into college via good marks in grade school, prospects have to keep progressing if they want to get anywhere. Standing still is, in effect, the same as regressing.

Frayed Knot
Oct 31 2006 09:29 PM

I found that BA study of draft picks that I mentioned earlier
(this thing was run a couple of years ago but I kept losing it)

What they did was to examine 10 years of drafts over the first 10 rounds and categorized the resultant career of each player with 1 of 6 labels.
- 'Flops' were for those who never reached the big leagues at any point
- 'Cup of Coffee' is for those who had only brief stints in MLB
- 'Fringe' players are bench players or back of the bullpen types
- 'Regular' denotes a starting position player or someone who holds down a regular starting spot or key relieving role
- 'Good' players are those closer to the top of their position
- and 'Star' was for those at an All-Star level

Obviously the above categories are somewhat subjective and - even though the didn't use the most recent drafts when they did this - it's still possible that some players from those closest years could still "move up", it does give a good idea of the likelihood (or not) of a given draft pick succeeding. And I don't do this to further the Corey Ragsdale debate (on whom too much energy has already been expended) but because, in general, I think fans have an overly optimistic view on the overall success rate of picks - particularly once you get past the first round.


Round# signedFlopsCup-o-CFringeRegularGoodStarReg or Better
1st30134.9%20.3%18.3%14.0%8.3%4.3%26.6%
2nd22352.9%29.6%8.1%6.3%2.2%0.9%9.4%
3rd21168.2%18.0%7.6%5.2%0.9%0.0%6.1%
4th20470.6%19.1%6.4%3.4%0.5%0.0%3.9%
5th20471.1%16.7%6.9%3.4%2.0%0.0%5.4%
6th20177.7%11.4%6.5%3.0%0.5%1.5%5.0%
7th19975.4%14.1%6.5%4.0%0.0%0.0%4.0%
8th19380.6%12.8%2.0%2.6%2.0%0.0%4.6%
9th19080.5%13.2%4.2%1.6%0.5%0.0%2.1%
10th18679.6%11.8%5.4%2.2%0.5%0.5%3.2%

Edgy DC
Nov 01 2006 05:17 AM

If you're thinking about taking me in the seventh round, hold off until the eighth. If you're thinking about taking me in the ninth round, hold off until the tenth.

Mark Healey
Nov 01 2006 05:25 AM

Just to chime in on Ragsdale...he's had plenty of opportunities, and plenty of special instruction...he just can't hit.

I love the guy as a person, and as a hard-as-nails ballplayer. But at the plate, he's just maddening...

Vic Sage
Nov 01 2006 08:31 AM

Frayed Knot wrote:
...in general, I think fans have an overly optimistic view on the overall success rate of picks - particularly once you get past the first round.


The TITTS swell with pride.

MFS62
Nov 01 2006 08:47 AM

Thanks, FK.
Good job. That looks like it took a lot of coding work.

Where were sandwich picks (between the first and second rounds) included (like David Wright), or were they?

Peter Gammons once wrote that a player drafted in rounds 10-20 has "just as much chance" of reaching the majors as a number 1-10. He didn't say whether that meant a cup-of-joe or as a regular. He may be correct based on those numbers, because after #1, the results seem within a very few percentage points of each other.

Now I'm going to have to check out my books tonight to try to identify those #6 picks who became all stars.

Later

Later

Frayed Knot
Nov 01 2006 09:14 AM

Yes, the 1st round figures include the supplemental picks as well (that's how more than 300 signed)
There are also a handful of supplementals for the 2nd & 3rd rounds.



I've heard that Gammons statement referred to a bunch of times and I'd like to know what his actual words were.
I believe it was in response to questions about the 2nd day of the draft and trying to counter charges that is was a "useless" exercise due to the fact that there's a history of good players emerging from late rounds. I suspect his comment was along the lines of how the odds were similar to those selected anywhere BUT the 1st few rounds - which, when you see the low pcts past rounds 1 or 2 - isn't far off.
Some seem to have interpretted his remarks as saying that all rounds are the same and an admition that the whole draft was a crapshoot -- something I can't believe Gammons would actually say.

Edgy DC
Nov 01 2006 09:29 AM

How is Gammons doing, by the way?

MFS62
Nov 01 2006 09:35 AM

="Frayed Knot"] I've heard that Gammons statement referred to a bunch of times and I'd like to know what his actual words were.
I believe it was in response to questions about the 2nd day of the draft and trying to counter charges that is was a "useless" exercise due to the fact that there's a history of good players emerging from late rounds. I suspect his comment was along the lines of how the odds were similar to those selected anywhere BUT the 1st few rounds - which, when you see the low pcts past rounds 1 or 2 - isn't far off.
Some seem to have interpretted his remarks as saying that all rounds are the same and an admition that the whole draft was a crapshoot -- something I can't believe Gammons would actually say.


I think you're right in your interpretation of his comments.

As for Gammons, he returned to ESPN at the end of the season and seems to be ok.

Later

Vic Sage
Nov 01 2006 01:16 PM

A tentative prospects list, based on info gleaned here and on last season's performance:

[u:25f99d686f]major league experience[/u:25f99d686f]
Milledge, OF
Pelfrey, RHP
Bannister, RHP
Bell, RHRP
Ring, LHRP
Soler, RHP

[u:25f99d686f]top 10:[/u:25f99d686f]
Humber, RHP
C.Gomez, OF
F.Martinez, OF
J.Flores, C
Owens, RHRP
Guerra, RHP
Neise, LHP
Carp, 1B
Coles, OF
Mulvey, RHP

[u:25f99d686f]next 20 (in no particular order):[/u:25f99d686f]
Abreu, 1b
Wylie,RHRP
B.Harper, 1b
Parnell, RHP
D.Martin, OF
G.Marte, RHRP
S.Henry, OF
M.Garcia, 2b
T.Stoner, RHP
N.Evans, 3b
J.Holden, OF
Nall, RHRP
Tomasiewicz, RHRP
M.Perez, RHRP
Devaney, RHP
C.Stewart, of
Collazo, RHP
Lindstrom, RHRP
Cullen, RHRP
J.Smith, RHRP

MFS62
Nov 01 2006 04:35 PM

Nice list.
Minor quibble.
I would have Smith instead of Mulvey. Smith seems to be a fast mover.

Later

Edgy DC
Nov 01 2006 08:52 PM

It's a pretty safe bet, I think, that Martinez has passed Gomez.

None among Pelfrey, Bannister, and Soler got enough innings to knock them off the prospect lists.

Vic Sage
Nov 02 2006 07:47 AM

REVISED:

[u:fb6b8aaab8]major league experience[/u:fb6b8aaab8]
Milledge, OF
Bell, RHRP
Ring, LHRP

[u:fb6b8aaab8]top 15:[/u:fb6b8aaab8]
Pelfrey, RHP
Humber, RHP
F.Martinez, OF
C.Gomez, OF
Bannister, RHP
Owens, RHRP
J.Flores, C
Carp, 1B
Coles, OF
Guerra, RHP
Neise, LHP
Soler, RHP
Mulvey, RHP
J.Smith, RHRP
M.Abreu, 1B

[u:fb6b8aaab8]next 20 (in no particular order):[/u:fb6b8aaab8]
Wylie,RHRP
B.Harper, 1b
Parnell, RHP
D.Martin, OF
G.Marte, RHRP
S.Henry, OF
M.Garcia, 2b
T.Stoner, RHP
N.Evans, 3b
J.Holden, OF
Nall, RHRP
Tomasiewicz, RHRP
M.Perez, RHRP
Devaney, RHP
C.Stewart, of
Collazo, RHP
Lindstrom, RHRP
Cullen, RHRP
Privett, LHP
Maldonado, RHRP

It looks like the Mets prospects are mostly RHPs, OFs and some 1Bs, with very few middle infield or LHP prospects.

20 kids from 2006 draft were signed and played in the Mets system last year, and the productive ones were almost exclusively RHPs. Dustin Martin (of) was the only non-pitcher to show promise, and Duane Privett the only LHP to make progress.

MFS62
Nov 02 2006 08:00 AM

Edgy DC wrote:
It's a pretty safe bet, I think, that Martinez has passed Gomez.


That may be true on some lists because of the way Martinez is being promoted quickly (like Gomez was this year). But I still think Gomez has the potential to become a better all around player because he has already demonstrated better speed, arm and defense than Martinez.

Still, its nice to see the Mets with two outfield prospects with their abilities.

Later

Frayed Knot
Nov 02 2006 08:21 AM

In part it'll depend on who's doing the rating.

BA tends to like touting young, toolsy types and could be fairly bullish on guys like Martinez and the pitcher Guerra because of what they've done despite being young for their league. Some fan-driven sites might go further than that simply so they can claim that they were touting these young'uns as superstars before anyone else. The more conservative Baseball Prospectus will probably want to see more before they go hog wild and may treat Gomez's AA experience combined with he raw tools (speed/arm) as the better bet.


Will also be intersting to see how ours compares to the league as a whole; both our individual guys and the system in general. I don't see any 'Top-20' types because the best guys are either very young (Martinez/Guerra) or have limited track records (Pelfrey/Humber).
BA had the NYM system ranked as 28th overall last year and said they had it tagged for dead last until the late signing of Pelfrey ("Milledge plus a bunch who wouldn't make other teams' Top-10", was their description). Figure it to rise this year (how could it not?) now that Pelfrey has a year under his belt, Humber looks healthy again, and the recent Latin signings have responded reasonably well to agressive promotions - although it's probably still a long way from the top.

MFS62
Nov 02 2006 08:59 AM

FK, good analysis of the different approach by the different rating services.
Its obvious that there's a big difference between a "top 20" type list and a ranking of an entire organization, where depth is considered.

A hint that BA may not rank the Mets too highly (my guess is they will come in around 20th) is that very few Mets farmhands showed up on their lists of top 20 players in each minor league this year. And, as you said, some services rate based on the major league readiness of the top prospects; others on future (longer term) upside of the players.

To me, depth at all levels doesn't matter as much as the quality of the few players who emerge from a system to become productive members of the parent club or good enough to be included in trades. A farm team is a life support system for a good prospect, giving him the opportunity to participate in enough games to fully develop his talent.

Its nice to know you have a major league ready backup at all positions. But if some of your players are 2-3 years away (from the majors), it doesn't upset me that greatly. What is more important to me is that a team has a "Top 20" list that compares well to those of other teams and will provide a steady stream of talent over time.

Later

Frayed Knot
Nov 02 2006 11:55 AM

What I meant by 'Top-20' was having a player who rates that high on the league-wide 'Top-100' type of lists.

In recent years, the knock on the Met system has been that while they've had those elite level prospects (Milledge was in the 9-15 range in last year's lists) their system has lacked the depth that you'd like to replace those top prospects when they either flop or simply "graduate" to the ML It's like having a great HS team but knowing that you're in trouble down the road because you've got lousy sophmore & junior classes. One year BA described the Mets as having; maybe the best 1-5 of anyone (Reyes, Wright, Kazmir, Huber, Heilman) ... but also the worst 6-10.

This year's crop sounds like it might tend towards the opposite. Better depth, but I'd be surprised if any of the current crop are among the elite level. Even our best guys are either very young or have enough questions attached to them to keep them from cracking the top level.

MFS62
Nov 02 2006 12:00 PM

Frayed Knot wrote:
What I meant by 'Top-20' was having a player who rates that high on the league-wide 'Top-100' type of lists.

That's the distiction I made, too.
We are apparently in violent agreement. :)

Later

Frayed Knot
Nov 06 2006 10:36 AM

btw, Baseball America started its parade of team-by-team 'Top-10' lists today, beginning with the Orioles.

Since they usually do these things by league & division, they'll first complete the AL; East, Central, then West, at a rate of about 2 weeks per division. Adding in a bit of time off for the holidays and you can figure them to get to the NL East & the Mets maybe just after New Years

MFS62
Nov 06 2006 11:09 AM

AL first again?
I wonder if that's because they won the All Star Game?

Later