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WARP3, Mr. Sulu

Edgy DC Dec 15 2006 10:46 AM Edited 1 time(s), most recently on Dec 16 2006 04:35 PM

Wins Above Replacement Player is not something I follow too much, because there are some things that just don't measure up for me. Here MetsGeek tries to use it to measure the top non-pitching seasons of all Mets. He notes surprise that Bernard Gilkey is rankes so high. I can't imagine why. I was there in 1996 and Gilk was excellent. But going without note is that Mike Piazza's highest season was his 2000 season, good for 27th-best among all-time Mets, just a tenth of a win ahead of Jose Vizcaino's 1995 campaign, and his other seasons behind Vizcaino.. Jose. Freaking. Vizcaino. 19. Freaking. 95. Now, I don't want to hear about pajamas. I know about Piazza's defensive shortcomings. I know about him never giving us a season like he gave the Dodgers for a few years there. I know about his seasons being abbreviated by catchers not starting every day and then further abbreviated by injuries toward the end of his tenure. Still it's whack. What seems to be going on, in part, is the rating of Fielding Runs Above Average. Mike Piazza may deserve a -11 compared to other catchers, but not compared to other players. Bernard Gilkey, try and catch some time. This also seems to screw over Howard Johnson. And there's no credit here for baserunner runs above average, so Jose Reyes fails to make the list. Actually, this list may include no 2006 Mets outside of Beltran, because Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Delgado fail to appear, despite their MVP support. Whats the deal with WARP3? Jose Vizcaino, by the way, tossed out a serviceable .697 OPS in 135 games in 1995.

patona314 Dec 16 2006 05:53 AM Re: WARP3, Mr. Sulu

Edgy DC wrote: Jose Vizcaino, by the way, tossed out a serviceable .697 OPS in 135 games in 1995. he punched rey o in the face if i remember correctly.

ScarletKnight41 Dec 16 2006 07:57 AM

That was Luis Lopez who hit Rey Ordoņez in the face.

patona314 Dec 16 2006 08:07 AM

i'm not sure about that

Frayed Knot Dec 16 2006 08:20 AM

<<<<<----- I don't remember punching that little gnat!! Lopez def took a swing at Rey but it was later than '95 There was one story about Butch Huskey swatting him too but that tale didn't come out until some time after the fact so maybe that's the one you were thinking about.

MFS62 Dec 16 2006 10:02 AM

]Whats the deal with WARP3? Can we please get back to Edgy's question? I'd like to know the answer, too. I've never liked VORP because it rates the difference between the player being rated and some mysterious "average replacement player". But it says nothing about the impact on that player's team in real life. On a really deep team, the substitute player on that team may be (almost as) as good as the the player being rated. But how is WARP or WARPn different? Later

metsmarathon Dec 16 2006 12:47 PM

the substitute player, in all cases, is not the next man on the roster, but rather a generic Joe Scrub - the monstrously huge bat boy of the baseball world. i think the problem with BP's fielding runs is that it places a heavy weighting on range factor, measuring more how many times a ball is hit to a player more than his innate ability in fielding balls hit near him. and for catchers, stolen base percentage is weighted high, too.

metsmarathon Dec 16 2006 12:50 PM

WARP is for a given season. WARP2 is weighted for all time, and theoretically lets you compare honus wagner to rey ordonez. WARP3 factors in the difference between season lengths. so in the case of a strike-shortened season, you can compare performance against a full-length season, or against a 154-game schedule.

MFS62 Dec 16 2006 01:59 PM

Thank you. I agree with thon's comment on range factor. On a team like the '86 Mets, with a lot of strikeout pitchers (Doc, etc) and a "fly ball" pitcher (El Sid) I can see how range factor figures might be effected. Later

Edgy DC Dec 16 2006 04:39 PM

How about weighing guys based on the position they played. Keith Hernandez may have been three times the firstbaseman above what Rafael Santana was as a shortstop, but Santana should have a similar defensive value (playeing time assumed to be equal) because he played shortstop, which Keith never could have.

Frayed Knot Dec 16 2006 04:46 PM

Seems to me that the question is; does WARP mean above the generic player or above the generic player of that position? IOW, the Piazzas of the world should be rated as to where they are above the replacement level catcher who would generally be a worse offensive player than the usual AAAA-type available player of all positions.

Edgy DC Dec 16 2006 06:06 PM Edited 2 time(s), most recently on Dec 17 2006 11:53 AM

If we're comparing all these players to one another --- and not merely to players sharing their position --- as is being done, it should be the former, no? Else, you're holding them all to different standards, which seems to be what the Geeks inadvertantly end up doing.

metsmarathon Dec 17 2006 09:08 AM

see, i think i like what bp does here. a hitter is a hitter is a hitter - it doesn't matter (much) whether he plays first base, or second base, or centerfield (catcher might be an exception) - you're still going to have the same offensive skills, and for the most part, production. the difference is that if you take keith hernandez, and put him at shortstop, he's going to contribute to far fewer defensive outs and likely more errors, and therefore, he will have a far lower fielding runs above replacement. there need be no offensive correction, since the difference is seen in the defense. as far as how bad a defensive shortstop is a replacement shortstop, i have no idea - its a bit muddy on the bp website as far as figuring that stuff out. i think its in the book, and i have an old one, but have not a darned clue as to where it is. might even be hiding in my mom's house!