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ZambranoStein in today's on-line Daily Nooz

iramets Dec 15 2006 12:30 PM

Funny, funny shtuff: On the day when James Dolan emerged from months of blissful silence to survey the wreckage of his Knicks, the Mets officially conceded that the return from the disastrous Kazmir trade will be, Lisa, as you would say, a whole heap of nothing. Victor Zambrano was not offered a contract, allowing him to become a free agent. Any other team now has the chance to fix Zambrano in ten minutes. If you're going to remind fans of your most disastrous player move in recent memory, best to do it on a day when Dolan is hogging the back pages. For Dolan, the Kazmir trade would have been a footnote. Or he would have given Zambrano a $20 million per year deal and gone on to trade Jose Reyes for Barry Bonds. Still, the Kazmir trade was bad enough, and it's good to see Omar Minaya cut his losses with the previous regime's mistakes, much as he did with Kaz Matsui. And it's just as well for Zambrano. Though he is eligible to return to the Mets, one would think he would be happy to get a fresh start elsewhere. It's not his fault he was traded for Kazmir. (But it is his fault that he can't throw strikes.) Here's a scary thought - if Zambrano were not coming off major surgery, he could be in line for a big payday. Zambrano's career record is 45-41, with a 4.45 ERA. Gil Meche's lifetime record is not much different - 55-44, 4.65 ERA, and he just got $55 million over five years from the Royals. Meche is three years younger than Zambrano and a lot healthier. Adam Eaton has a very similar record - 54-45, 4.40 ERA - but is a year older than Meche with a lot more injury concerns. Still, the Phillies gave Eaton $24.5 for three years. Had Zambrano pitched the full season last year, he probably would have ended with career stats even closer to those of Eaton and Meche. One wonders if the Mets would have felt compelled to pony up the big bucks to protect their investment in Zambrano. I certainly hope they would have let him go rather than pay him one of these ridiculous contracts. I think I know where Zambrano will end up. He has a lifetime 3.06 ERA in 35 1/3 innings at Yankee Stadium. Zambrano was originally signed by the Yankees as an eighteen-year-old in 1993. And though he's been pitching in the National League, most of Zambrano's experience is in the AL East. The Yankees like to overpay pitchers recovering from injury such as Jon Lieber and Octavio Dotel. They hang out in the minors or on the DL until they are ready to contribute. (Carl Pavano is his own category.) So I expect to see Zambrano in pinstripes sooner or later. But with his luck, he'll make his Yankee debut against Tampa Bay and Kazmir.

Vic Sage Dec 15 2006 03:16 PM

] One wonders if the Mets would have felt compelled to pony up the big bucks to protect their investment in Zambrano. I certainly hope they would have let him go rather than pay him one of these ridiculous contracts. well, since they didn't pay those ridiculous contracts to any of the mediocre pitchers on the market, one wonders why one would wonder whether the mets would pass on Zambrano, as well. One also wonders why one would think that Minaya has any vested interest in protecting the bad decisions of a prior regime, when Matsui's release (and common sense) would indicate that wasn't his style. One wonders why one would make such a catty, baseless accusation unless one were simply perpetuating a "mets are idiots" agenda. But why would one do such a thing?

Frayed Knot Dec 15 2006 04:09 PM

The other thing he ignores is that the other guys were Free Agents while Zambrano just aritration eligible - meaning that he couldn't have commanded anywhere near the kind of money they were getting.

iramets Dec 15 2006 04:18 PM

Vic Sage wrote: One also wonders why one would think that Minaya has any vested interest in protecting the bad decisions of a prior regime, when Matsui's release (and common sense) would indicate that wasn't his style. how does that match up with "it's good to see Omar Minaya cut his losses with the previous regime's mistakes, much as he did with Kaz Matsui"? Are you deliberately misreading what he writes?

seawolf17 Dec 16 2006 06:58 AM

And if he had pitched the whole season healthy, then of course he would have had more value.

Frayed Knot Dec 16 2006 08:09 AM

Sure, but the author's premise is already pre-supposing that [u:efdba6abc7]IF[/u:efdba6abc7] Zambrano had put together a healthy & decent season [u:efdba6abc7]COULD[/u:efdba6abc7] the Mets have resisted giving him Meche/Eaton type money ... to which my answer is, 'Yes' since they wouldn't have had to out-bid everyone else in order to keep him. Now he'd get a decent amount for sure, VZ being arb-eligible and all, but it need only be for one year meaning that the question about what the Mets would have done with the dilemma about whether to hand him a long-term deal or cut him loose isn't really honest. Given the choice for next year, I'd take a healthy Zambrano coming off an 2005-type season over a two-year deal for El Duque at this point.